Prognostic models in chronic liver disease: validity, usefulness and future role

Prognostic Models in Acute Liver Failure

There is a strong imperative to develop valid and accurate prognostic modeling for acute liver failure (ALF). Despite the numerous clinical models that have been proposed thus far and the use of some such models, that is, King's College Criteria and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, in clinical practice to aid decision-making, there is a significant need for improvement for determining patients' clinical course, survival, and requirement for liver transplantation. Future prognostic models shall need a stronger statistical foundation and accountability for time and variability in the clinical course of ALF and be applied for pretransplant and posttransplant outcomes.

Quantitative Liver Function Analysis: Volumetric T1 Mapping with Fast Multisection B1 Inhomogeneity Correction in Hepatocyte-specific Contrast-enhanced Liver MR Imaging

Purpose To determine whether B₁ inhomogeneity-corrected volumetric T1 maps of gadoxetic acid-enhanced liver magnetic resonance (MR) imaging are able to demonstrate global liver function and functional heterogeneity in patients with cirrhosis and to investigate their relationship with the development of hepatic insufficiency and decompensation. Materials and Methods This institutional review board-approved retrospective study with waiver of informed consent included 234 consecutive patients who underwent gadoxetic acid-enhanced liver MR imaging, including B₁ inhomogeneity-corrected volumetric T1 mapping. For all patients, T1 relaxation times of the liver and liver volumes were measured on T1 maps. Liver T1 and functional liver volume-to-weight ratio (liver volume divided by liver T1 and the patient's weight) were compared between Child-Pugh class A and class B cirrhosis. Associations between serum markers, MR parameters, hepatic insufficiency, and decompensation were investigated by using Cox proportional hazards analysis. Results Patients with Child-Pugh class B disease showed significantly longer liver T1 (548.2 msec ± 257.7 vs 372.2 msec ± 77.5, P < .0001) and lower kurtosis of liver T1 (29.1 ± 39.6 vs 43.9 ± 64.9, P = .016) than patients with Child-Pugh class A disease. Prolonged liver T1 (≥462 msec) (hazard ratio [HR], 5.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1, 62.8) and an albumin level of less than 3.5 g/dL (HR, 20.7; 95% CI: 3.9, 221.9) were independently associated with the development of hepatic insufficiency. Functional liver volume-to-weight ratio was associated with the development of hepatic decompensation in patients with Child-Pugh class A disease (HR, 0.03; 95% CI: 0.004, 0.23). Conclusion B₁ inhomogeneity-corrected volumetric T1 mapping provided information on global liver function and demonstrated functional heterogeneity. In addition, prolonged liver T1 (≥462 msec) was associated with the development of hepatic insufficiency, and functional liver volume-to-weight ratio was negatively related with the development of decompensation in compensated cirrhosis. ^© RSNA, 2016 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Serum Bile Acids Are Associated with Pathological Progression of Hepatitis B-Induced Cirrhosis

Recent metabonomic studies have identified an important role of bile acids in patients with liver cirrhosis. Serum bile acids, such as glycocholate (GCA), glycochenodeoxycholate (GCDCA), taurocholate (TCA), and taurochenodeoxycholate (TCDCA), increased significantly in liver cirrhosis patients. Our recently published urinary metabonomic study showed that glycocholate 3-glucuronide, taurohyocholate, TCA, glycolithocholate 3-sulfate, and glycoursodeoxycholate (GUDCA) were markedly increased in hepatitis B-induced cirrhotic patients (n = 63) compared with healthy controls (n = 31). The urinary levels of GUDCA were able to differentiate among three stages of cirrhotic patients with Child-Pugh (CP) score A, B, and C. In this study, we recruited two new cohorts of patients with hepatitis-B-induced cirrhosis and healthy control subjects and quantitatively profiled their serum bile acids using ultra-performance liquid chromatography triple quadrupole mass spectrometry. Serum bile acid profile and corresponding differential bile acids were characterized, in addition to the blood routine, liver, and renal function tests. The alterations of bile acids contributing to the intergroup variation between healthy controls and cirrhotic patients and among pathological stages of CP grade A, B and C were also investigated. Five bile acids, GCA, GCDCA, TCA, TCDCA, and GUDCA, were significantly altered among different stages of liver cirrhosis (n = 85), which was validated with an independent cohort of cirrhotic patients (n = 53). Our results show that dynamic alteration of serum bile acids is indicative of an exacerbated liver function, highlighting their potential as biomarkers for staging the liver cirrhosis and monitoring its progression.

Accuracy of MELD scores in predicting mortality in decompensated cirrhosis from variceal bleeding, hepatorenal syndrome, alcoholic hepatitis, or acute liver failure as well as mortality after non-transplant surgery or TIPS

BACKGROUND

To systematically review literature on use of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score to determine severity and prognosis of liver disease in various clinical situations and to evaluate its use in decisions regarding therapeutic interventions.

METHODS

Computerized literature searches using key medical terms; review of authors' extensive files on this subject; and personal clinical experience.

RESULTS

The MELD score, a prospectively developed and validated scale for severity of end-stage liver disease, utilizes serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, and international normalized ratio to predict mortality in cirrhotic patients. It has proven clinically useful in increasingly varied clinical situations. The United Network for Organ Sharing uses MELD scores, with bonus points assigned for hepatocellular cancer, to prioritize allocation of deceased donor livers for liver transplantation. This work reviews recent data demonstrating that MELD scores relatively accurately predict mortality in patients with variceal bleeding, hepatorenal syndrome, alcoholic hepatitis, and acute liver failure, as well as assess risks of non-liver transplantation surgery or transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts in cirrhotic patients. MELD scores fail to predict mortality in about 15% of patients with end-stage liver disease. Incorporation of additional parameters, including serum sodium level, serum albumin level, glucose intolerance, or APACHE II score, may potentially improve prognostic accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD scores relatively accurately assess severity of liver disease and prognosis in patients with advanced liver disease in general, and in patients with individual complications of liver disease. It is useful in making decisions on potential therapies. Incorporating additional parameters may further improve its prognostic accuracy.

Predictive factors for rebleeding and death in alcoholic cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding: a multivariate analysis

BACKGROUND

Bleeding from esophageal varices is a leading cause of death in alcoholic cirrhotic patients. The aim of the present single-center study was to identify risk factors predictive of variceal rebleeding and death within 6 weeks of initial treatment.

METHODS

Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on 310 prospectively documented alcoholic cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) who underwent 786 endoscopic variceal injection treatments between January 1984 and December 2006. All injections were administered during the first 6 weeks after the patients were treated for their first variceal bleed.

RESULTS

Seventy-five (24.2%) patients experienced a rebleed, 38 within 5 days of the initial treatment and 37 within 6 weeks of their initial treatment. Of the 15 variables studied and included in a multivariate analysis using a logistic regression model, a bilirubin level >51 mmol/l and transfusion of >6 units of blood during the initial hospital admission were predictors of variceal rebleeding within the first 6 weeks. Seventy-seven (24.8%) patients died, 29 (9.3%) within 5 days and 48 (15.4%) between 6 and 42 days after the initial treatment. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that six variables were predictors of death within the first 6 weeks: encephalopathy, ascites, bilirubin level >51 mmol/l, international normalized ratio (INR) >2.3, albumin <25 g/l, and the need for balloon tube tamponade.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival was influenced by the severity of liver failure, with most deaths occurring in Child-Pugh grade C patients. Patients with AVH and encephalopathy, ascites, bilirubin levels >51 mmol/l, INR >2.3, albumin <25 g/l and who require balloon tube tamponade are at increased risk of dying within the first 6 weeks. Bilirubin levels >51 mmol/l and transfusion of >6 units of blood were predictors of variceal rebleeding.

Is there yet any place for reagent strips in diagnosing spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in cirrhotic patients? An accuracy and cost-effectiveness study in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Diagnosis of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is currently based on ascitic cell counting, but there is a need for a more simple and rapid diagnostic tool. The objectives of this study are to evaluate the accuracy of reagent strips in diagnosing SBP and compare their costs with total and differential cell counts.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

71 cirrhotic in- and outpatients were consecutively included (159 samples). Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis was defined as neutrophil cells >or= 250/microL. The cutoff values for each reagent strip were defined by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Sensitivity (S), Specificity (Sp), Positive and Negative Predictive Values (PPV and NPV), Accuracy (Ac) and cost-effectiveness (US$) in comparison to cell count exam were calculated.

RESULTS

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis was diagnosed in 17 patients (23.9%), 11 of them with positive culture (64.7%). The best cutoff points found in ROC curves were 1+ for Multistix 10 SG and ca. 75 for Choiceline 10 (Multistix 10 SG S = 80%, Sp = 98.5%, PPV = 90.9%, NPV = 96.2%, Ac = 95%; Choiceline 10 S = 76.9%, Sp = 97.7%, PPV = 87%, NPV = 95.6%, Ac = 94%). In terms of cost-effectiveness by cost/accuracy, cell count was 41.5, Multistix 10 SG 0.57, and Choiceline 10, 0.19 (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Reagent strips are a useful tool for diagnosing SBP in cirrhotic patients, but they have some limitations. Strips are especially indicated when total and differential cell counts are not quickly available or sometimes unavailable. They are also indicated as screening test in emergency rooms to anticipate the diagnosis of SBP and allow its early treatment. It's an interesting option in developing countries.

Conventional predictors of survival poorly predict and significantly underpredict survival after H-graft portacaval shunts

OBJECTIVE

This study was undertaken to evaluate the ability to predict survival after 8 mm prosthetic H-graft portacaval shunts (HGPCS).

METHODS

Since 1988, 170 patients have been prospectively followed after HGPCS. Using preshunt data, predictors of survival after shunting [MELD Score, Emory Score, Child Pugh Score, Discriminant Function (DF), and Child Class] were determined and related to actual survival.

RESULTS

Child Class was: (a) 10%, (b) 28%, and (c) 62%. Actual 5- and 10-year survival by Child Class was: (a) 67% and 33%, (b) 49% and 16%, (c) 29% and 7%. Survival correlated with all predictors of survival (p < 0.01 for each). Actual survival was better than predicted by MELD (p < 0.001). By Multiple Variable Regression Analysis--Computed Model, explained variation in survival was greatest for Child Class (18%), followed by MELD (14%), with DF, Emory Score, and Child Pugh Score not significantly contributing.

CONCLUSIONS

After HGPCS, actual survival is better than predicted by MELD. Child Class explains only a minor variation in survival, although it better explains survival than MELD, Emory Score, Child Pugh Score, or DF. Conventional predictors of survival poorly and underpredict survival after HGPCS and should be used with caution.

Natural history of hepatopulmonary syndrome: Impact of liver transplantation

Few data exist concerning survival after the diagnosis of hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS). Although orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) frequently results in complete resolution of HPS, the relationship between transplantation and survival has not been described. The study rationale was to describe long-term survival in patients with HPS. Data were derived from patients diagnosed with HPS at Mayo Clinic (n = 61) between 1985 and 2002, including those undergoing OLT (n = 24) and those who did not (n = 37). A case-control, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis between HPS patients and 77 patients without HPS matched for liver disease cause, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), severity of liver disease by the Child classification, and age was described for OLT and non-OLT groups. Patients with HPS had a mean partial pressure of arterial oxygen (PaO(2)) decline of 5.2 + 2.3 mm Hg per year awaiting OLT. For HPS patients, despite similar baseline PaO(2), brain uptake of technetium macroaggregated albumin ((99m)TcMAA), or measures of hepatic dysfunction, 5-year survival associated with OLT was 76% versus 23% who did not undergo transplantation (P < .0001). Comparing those who did not undergo transplantation, HPS patients had worse 5-year survival than matched controls (P = .0003). However, reasons to deny OLT (comorbidity) in the setting of HPS may well have contributed to observed survival differences. Baseline PaO(2) </=50 mm Hg was associated with worse survival irrespective of the decision to perform OLT. In conclusion, hypoxemia of HPS is frequently progressive. As OLT outcome relates to pretransplantation PaO(2), additional MELD points should advance the priority for OLT in HPS.

Improvement of prognostic power of the Child-Pugh classification of liver cirrhosis by hyaluronan

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Modifications of the Child-Pugh classification of liver cirrhosis by incorporation of hyaluronan were tested to improve the prognostic power for long term evaluation of liver cirrhosis in 126 patients observed over a period of 10 years.

METHODS

Serum concentrations of HA were determined at study entry. Statistical analysis included Kaplan-Meier life tables and stepwise multivariant Cox-regression analysis for each parameter of Child-Pugh classification and hyaluronan. Prognostic models were developed by exchanging prothrombin time, albumin and encephalopathy by HA in different combinations.

RESULTS

Based on a good single correlation between hyaluronan (0.62) and clinical course (P<0.01) we conclude that models with hyaluronan instead of albumin or encephalopathy and with or without shifted threshold values of bilirubin and albumin are superior for the prediction of the long term prognosis. In Cox-regression analysis, apart from hyaluronan and bilirubin, no other parameters contributed to an improvement.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that a modification of the Child-Pugh classification of liver cirrhosis by inclusion of HA significantly improves the predictive power of CP, especially in alcoholic etiology. A prospective validation of the newly defined scores needs to be done in the future.

Cirrhosis and bleeding: the need for very early management

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Retrospective studies suggest that the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis and variceal hemorrhage has improved in more recent decades. In a prospective cohort study in which the choice of prophylactic therapy was left to each practitioner, we followed cirrhotic patients with medium/large varices to determine factors predictive of bleeding and death.

METHODS

Three hundred fourteen patients with grades 2 or 3 esophageal varices (Child A and B/C: 218 and 96) were enrolled. One hundred seventy-three patients had no previous history of variceal bleeding. Only 245 patients (100% of patients with prior variceal hemorrhage, 61% of patients without prior hemorrhage) were receiving some form of prophylactic therapy. The median follow-up was 18 months.

RESULTS

There were 76 bleeding events and 14 related deaths (18%); nine of these deaths occurred within 24 h of bleeding onset (two at home, two during hospital transfer, and five in hospital, a mean of 2.5 h after onset; six involved Child C patients). Twenty-five deaths were not due to bleeding but were closely related to cirrhosis. In a Cox model, the presence of tense ascites (relative risk 3.4, 95% confidence interval, CI 2.5-5.9) and a prior history of hemorrhage (relative risk 4.4, 95% CI 2.6-7.5) were independent predictors of variceal hemorrhage. In patients without a prior history of bleeding, bleeding risk was higher with more prolonged prothrombin time and lower when patients were receiving propranolol.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the advent of effective drugs and endoscopic therapy for variceal bleeding, about a quarter of deaths occur very early after bleeding onset, confirming the need for rapid specific management.

Prognostic significance of the hepatopulmonary syndrome in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS) has been defined by chronic liver disease, arterial deoxygenation, and widespread intrapulmonary vasodilation. Mortality of patients with HPS is considered to be high, but the effect of HPS on survival in patients with cirrhosis remains unclear.

METHODS

A total of 111 patients with cirrhosis were studied prospectively by using transthoracic contrast echocardiography for detection of pulmonary vasodilation, blood gas analysis, and pulmonary function test. Twenty different clinical characteristics and survival times were noted.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven patients (24%) had HPS. Their mortality was significantly higher (median survival, 10.6 months) compared with patients without HPS (40.8 mo, P < 0.05), even after adjusting for liver disease severity (2.9 vs. 14.7 months in Child-Pugh class C with [n = 15] and without HPS [n = 35, P < 0.05]; 35.3 vs. 44.5 months in Child-Pugh class B with [n = 7] and without HPS [n = 23, P = NS]), and exclusion of patients who underwent liver transplantation during follow-up (median survival 4.8 vs. 35.2 months, P = 0.005). Causes of death were mainly nonpulmonary and liver-related in the 19 patients with and the 35 patients without HPS who died. In multivariate analysis, HPS was an independent predictor of survival besides age, Child-Pugh class, and blood urea nitrogen. Mortality correlates with severity of HPS.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of HPS independently worsens prognosis of patients with cirrhosis. This should influence patient management and scoring systems and accelerate the evaluation process for liver transplantation.

Ascites fluid and plasma calprotectin concentrations in liver disease

BACKGROUND

Calprotectin, a marker of neutrophil activation, has been associated with a poor prognosis in alcohol-induced cirrhosis. The aims were to study concentrations of calprotectin in patients with various liver diseases, and to further investigate the prognostic value of calprotectin in cirrhosis.

METHODS

Plasma calprotectin concentrations were determined in 84 patients with alcohol-induced liver disease, 32 hepatitis B or C infected patients, 33 patients with liver disease of other aetiologies, 7 patients with combined aetiologies and in 24 patients with malignant disease. Thirty healthy individuals were included as controls. Ascites calprotectin concentrations were determined in patients with ascites (n = 75). Follow-up for survival was performed after a median observation period of 10 months.

RESULTS

Increased plasma and ascites calprotectin concentrations were observed in malignant disease compared to non-malignant disease (P < 0.0001). Plasma calprotectin concentrations were low in viral liver disease compared to patients with non-viral liver disease (P = 0.02) and to controls (P = 0.0002). Plasma calprotectin (>median) was a highly significant marker of poor survival in alcohol-induced cirrhosis (P = 0.001), but was of no prognostic value in non-alcohol-induced cirrhosis (P = 0.88). In decompensated cirrhosis high (>upper quartile) ascites calprotectin concentrations were associated with an increased mortality (P = 0.002), as were high (>median) plasma calprotectin levels (P = 0.009).

CONCLUSION

The prognostic importance of calprotectin in alcohol-induced cirrhosis is confirmed and demonstrated as specific for alcohol-induced liver disease. Low calprotectin levels are indicated in viral liver disease, and an association between high ascites calprotectin levels and malignant ascites was observed.

Predictive models of short- and long-term survival in patients with nonbiliary cirrhosis

The limited number of donor organs has placed a burden on the medical community to improve patient selection and timing of liver transplantation (LT). We aim to evaluate short- and long-term survival of 124 consecutive patients with a diagnosis of nonbiliary cirrhosis. Seventeen clinical, biochemical, functional, and hemodynamic parameters were computed. Patient survival was evaluated in the short term (3 months) by logistic regression, and the predictive power of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and the log likelihood ratio. For the long-term (up to 5 years) prognosis, the Cox proportional model was used. During follow-up, 54 patients died and 20 patients underwent LT. In the short-term study, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (including bilirubin level, international normalized ratio [INR], and creatinine level) was as predictive as our score, which contained only two independent indicators (bilirubin and creatinine levels). In the long-term study, three independent variables (albumin level, INR, and creatinine level) emerged from the Cox model, and patients were classified into three survival-risk groups according to a prognostic index (PI): -1.039 x albumin (grams per deciliter) + 1.909 x log(e) INR + 1.207 x log(e) serum creatinine (milligrams per deciliter). Survival probabilities at 1 and 5 years were 89% and 80%, 63% and 52%, and 23% and 10% with a low, medium, and high PI, respectively. The validation study using the split-sample technique and data from independent patients confirmed that a high PI (>-2.5) identifies patients with a poor prognosis within 5 years. We thus have shown and validated that risk for death at the short and long term of patients with nonbiliary cirrhosis can be predicted with great accuracy using models containing a few simple and easily obtained objective variables, and these survival models are useful tools in clinical decision making, especially in deciding to list patients for LT and prioritization on the liver waiting list.

Long-term survival and cause-specific mortality in patients with cirrhosis of the liver: a nationwide cohort study in Denmark

Mortality from cirrhosis of the liver has been examined in few long-term follow-up studies. In the Danish National Registry of Patients, 1982-1989, we identified a cohort of 10,154 patients with liver cirrhosis and divided them according to the etiology of their liver disease. Causes of death were identified in the Danish Death Registry, 1982-1993. We estimated relative survival and standardized mortality ratios by comparing with the mortality in the general population. The 10-year relative survival was worse in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis (34%) or nonspecified cirrhosis (32%) than in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (58%) or chronic hepatitis (66%). The standardized mortality ratio for all causes of death combined was 12-fold increased, 5-fold excluding cirrhosis-related causes. Mortality in all disease categories was increased, even in those not traditionally related to cirrhosis. In conclusion, patients with cirrhosis of the liver face reduced life expectancy due to several causes of death.

Time-dependent Cox regression model is superior in prediction of prognosis in primary sclerosing cholangitis

More precise prognostic models are needed for prediction of survival in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), particularly for the selection of candidates for liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to develop a time-dependent prognostic model for the calculation of updated short-term survival probability in PSC. Consecutive clinical and laboratory follow-up data from the time of diagnosis were collected from the files of 330 PSC patients from 5 European centers, followed for a median of 8.4 years since diagnosis. Time-fixed and time-dependent Cox regression analyses, as well as the additive regression model, were applied. The reliability of the models was tested by a cross-validation procedure. Bilirubin (on a logarithmic scale), albumin, and age at diagnosis of PSC were identified as independent prognostic factors in multivariate analysis of both the time-fixed and the time-dependent Cox regression models. The importance of bilirubin was more pronounced in the time-dependent model (hazard ratio [HR], 2.84) than in the time-fixed analysis (hazard ratio, 1.51). The additive regression model indicated that once the patients survive beyond the first 5 years, the impact on prognosis of albumin at diagnosis ceases. The time-dependent prognostic model was superior to the time-fixed variant in assigning low 1-year survival probabilities to patients that actually survived less than 1 year. In conclusion, a time-dependent Cox regression model has the potential to estimate a more precise short-term prognosis in PSC compared with the traditional time-fixed models.

Natural history and prognostic models in primary sclerosing cholangitis

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease characterized by inflammation and fibrosis of the intra- and extra-hepatic bile ducts. Despite the recognition of immunological and genetic alterations cited as factors in its pathogenesis, the exact cause for PSC remains unknown. Observational cohort studies, however, have demonstrated that PSC is a progressive disease culminating in liver failure or death. Natural history assessment in PSC, however, has been complicated by variable rates of disease progression and the impact of clinical symptoms upon initial presentation. The development of mathematical models by multivariable regression techniques (most notably Cox proportional hazards regression) has allowed for an improved description of overall survival on an individual basis among patients with PSC. Additionally, these models have also been employed for determining the optimal selection and timing for liver transplantation when advanced disease is imminent.

Prognostic indicators of successful endoscopic sclerotherapy for prevention of rebleeding from oesophageal varices in cirrhosis: a long-term cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although band ligation is now recommended for prevention of rebleeding from oesophageal varices in cirrhosis, sclerotherapy is still widely used. Patients submitted to chronic sclerotherapy undergo several endoscopies and experience a large number of serious complications. However, long-term outcome is poorly defined.

AIMS

To assess the clinical course and prognostic indicators of patients undergoing chronic sclerotherapy for prevention of variceal rebleeding as a basis for future evaluation of long-term band ligation outcome.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study; prognostic analysis by the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

A total of 218 consecutive cirrhotic patients (37 Child class A, 154 B, 27 C) were enrolled in the study Varices were obliterated in 139 (64%) patients in a mean of 5 (+/-2.6) sessions and recurred in 58/139 (41.7%) within one year. A total of 132 (60%) patients experienced 283 rebleeding episodes and 73 (33%) died. Bleeding from oesophageal ulcers was the most serious complication causing 14% of all rebleeding episodes. Significant prognostic indicators of sclerotherapy outcome were: Child-Pugh class for variceal obliteration; gastric varices and platelet count for recurrence of varices; failure to obliterate varices, variceal size and gastric varices for rebleeding; blood urea nitrogen and failure to obliterate varices for death. Presence of gastric varices was the only prognostic indicator for death in the 79 patients not achieving variceal obliteration. A mean of 10 endoscopies and of 6 hospital admissions were needed per each patient with an estimated cost of US dollars 7154 per patient during the first two years of therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Sclerotherapy is a very demanding and costly treatment, and is associated with frequent and serious side-effects. The probability of treatment failure is significantly higher in Child C patients with gastric varices. Alternative treatments should be considered for these patients.

Prognostic indicators of risk for first variceal bleeding in cirrhosis: a multicenter study in 711 patients to validate and improve the North Italian Endoscopic Club (NIEC) index

OBJECTIVE

The best known indicator of risk for first bleeding in patients with cirrhosis without previous bleeding is the index devised by the North Italian Endoscopic Club for the Study and Treatment of Esophageal Varices (NIEC index), which results from the combination of size of esophageal varices, severity of red wale marks, and Child-Pugh class. Its efficiency is far from optimal, and validation studies have reported sensitivities and specificities markedly lower than those reported in the original study. In the present study we analyzed the efficiency of NIEC index in a large series of cirrhotic patients with varices without previous bleeding. In addition, we tried to improve the effectiveness of the index by modifying it, and to validate the modifications in an independent group of patients.

METHODS

A total of 627 patients were enrolled and followed until either a variceal bleeding or for a maximum of 2 yr. During this time, 117 experienced a first variceal

RESULTS

Using Cox's regression analysis, size of varices, severity of red wale marks, and Child-Pugh score were significant and independent predictors of first bleeding, as already noted in the original report of the NIEC group. However, coefficients and standard errors were markedly different, and the importance of size of esophageal varices in the regression was much larger, whereas that of Child-Pugh score was much lower. According to these data, a revised index was developed (Rev-NIEC). Using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, the revised index showed a larger efficiency, and the area under the curve was significantly larger (0.80 +/- 0.02 vs 0.74 +/- 0.02; p < 0.01). In particular, the curve showed that for a specificity of 75%, the new index had a sensitivity of 72% compared to that of 55% of the NIEC index. Validation in an independent sample of 84 patients showed good agreement between predicted and observed risk for bleeding. Validation with the bootstrap technique also showed adequate stability of the results.

CONCLUSIONS

The revised index seems to be superior to the traditional index, and may turn out to be more useful in the selection of patients for different therapeutic procedures and in the stratification of patients in clinical trials.

Is serum bilirubin concentration the only valid prognostic marker in primary biliary cirrhosis?

From the many prognostic models for primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) patients based on Cox's regression analysis, the Mayo model has gained the most popularity and was successfully validated in some centers. The aim of our study was to validate the Mayo survival model for Polish PBC patients and, in case of its inapplicability, to select prognostic variables and to create time-fixed and time-dependent survival models for the patients. We used database information on patients from 6 medical centers in Poland, fulfilling clinical, serological, and/or pathological criteria of PBC. The Mayo model was validated using data from 116 PBC patients. The time-fixed and time-dependent models were created using data on clinical and biochemical variables used in the Mayo model from 162 and 208 patients, respectively. The Mayo model validation was performed graphically and by one-sample log-rank tests after dividing the study sample into 3 groups of high, medium, and low risk. The survival analysis was performed using Cox's proportional hazards regression method on clinical and biochemical variables used in the Mayo model. Treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) was included in the time-dependent analysis. Validation showed that the Mayo model overestimated death risk in Polish PBC patients. Of the variables used in the Mayo model, serum bilirubin concentration appeared to be the only variable of prognostic importance. The analysis shows that serum bilirubin concentration holds most of the prognostic information for our PBC patients irrespective of prior treatment with UDCA.

Evaluation of hepatic function in liver cirrhosis: clinical utility of galactose elimination capacity, hepatic clearance of D-sorbitol, and laboratory investigations

Assessment of hepatic function is based on both liver blood tests and functional tests, the extensive application of which is still controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical utility of a few selected tests as discriminatory and prognostic indexes: serum albumin, pseudocholinesterase, prothrombin time, as well as galactose elimination capacity and hepatic sorbitol clearance. Two separate studies were performed: Study I to investigate how well these tests assessed severity, and Study II to evaluate their prognostic value. A total of 128 consecutive cirrhotic patients classified according to the Child-Pugh score were included in Study I; Study II was carried out on 47 of these 128 during a two-year follow-up period. Pairwise correlations between all tests and Child-Pugh score yielded higher significant values for liver blood tests than for the functional ones. In Study I functional tests such as galactose elimination capacity and hepatic sorbitol clearance did not appear to be better than conventional biochemical tests in discriminating clinical severity of cirrhotic patients, as defined by Child-Pugh classification. Results of Study II confirmed that in severe liver cirrhosis Child-Pugh score remains the best method for medium- and long-term prognosis and for planning liver transplantation. Functional tests should be reserved for defining the residual functioning liver mass or for studies about functional liver plasma flow.

A model to predict survival following liver retransplantation

In the current era of critical-organ shortage, one of the most controversial questions facing transplantation teams is whether hepatic retransplantation, which has historically been associated with increased resource utilization and diminished survival, should be offered to a patient whose first allograft is failing. Retransplantation effectively denies access to orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) to another candidate and further depletes an already-limited organ supply. The study group was comprised of 1,356 adults undergoing hepatic retransplantation in the United States between 1990 and 1996 as reported to the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). We analyzed numerous donor and recipient variables and created Cox proportional-hazards models on 900 randomly chosen patients, validating the results on the remaining cohort. Five variables consistently provided significant predictive power and made up the final model: age, bilirubin, creatinine, UNOS status, and cause of graft failure. Although both hepatitis C seropositivity and donor age were significant by univariate and multivariate analyses, neither contributed independently to the estimation of prognosis when added to the final model. The final model was highly predictive of survival (whole model chi2 = 139.63). The risk scores for individual patients were calculated, and patients were assigned into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups (P <.00001). The low degree of uncertainty in the probability estimates as reflected by confidence intervals, even in our high-risk patients, underscores the applicability of our model as an adjunct to clinical judgment. We have developed and validated a model that uses five readily accessible "bedside" variables to accurately predict survival in patients undergoing liver retransplantation.