LEPTOSPIROSIS IN MUMBAI: POST-DELUGE OUTBREAK 2005

Disentangling the influence of reservoir abundance and pathogen shedding on zoonotic spillover of the Leptospira agent in urban informal settlements

Rats are major reservoirs for pathogenic Leptospira, the bacteria causing leptospirosis, particularly in urban informal settlements. However, the impact of variation in rat abundance and pathogen shedding rates on spillover transmission to humans remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate how spatial variation in reservoir abundance and pathogen pressure affect Leptospira spillover transmission to humans in a Brazilian urban informal settlement. A longitudinal eco-epidemiological study was conducted from 2013 to 2014 to characterize the spatial distribution of rat abundance and Leptospira shedding rates in rats and determine the association with human infection risk in a cohort of 2,206 community residents. Tracking plates and live-trapping were used to measure rat abundance and quantify rat shedding status and load. In parallel, four sequential biannual serosurveys were used to identify human Leptospira infections. To evaluate the role of shedding on human risk, we built three statistical models for: (1) the relative abundance of rats, (2) the shedding rate by individual rats, and (3) human Leptospira infection, in which "total shedding", obtained by multiplying the predictions from those two models, was used as a risk factor. We found that Leptospira shedding was associated with older and sexually mature rats and varied spatially and temporally-higher at valley bottoms and with seasonal rainfall (December to March). The point estimate for "total shedding" by rat populations was positive, i.e., Leptospira infection risk increased with total shedding, but the association was not significant [odds ratio (OR) = 1.1; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.9, 1.4]. This positive trend was mainly driven by rat abundance, rather than individual rat shedding (OR = 1.8; 95% CI: 0.6, 5.4 vs. OR = 1.0; 95% CI: 0.7, 1.4]. Infection risk was higher in areas with more vegetative land cover (OR = 2.4; 95% CI: 1.2, 4.8), and when floodwater entered the house (OR = 2.4; 95% CI: 1.6, 3.4). Our findings indicate that environmental and hydrological factors play a more significant role in Leptospira spillover than rat associated factors. Furthermore, we developed a novel approach combining several models to elucidate complex links between animal reservoir abundance, pathogen shedding and environmental factors on zoonotic spillover in humans that can be extended to other environmentally transmitted diseases.

Leptospirosis and the Environment: A Review and Future Directions

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease of global importance with significant morbidity and mortality. However, the disease is frequently overlooked and underdiagnosed, leading to uncertainty of the true scale and severity of the disease. A neglected tropical disease, leptospirosis disproportionately impacts disadvantaged socioeconomic communities most vulnerable to outbreaks of zoonotic disease, due to contact with infectious animals and contaminated soils and waters. With growing evidence that Leptospira survives, persists, and reproduces in the environment, this paper reviews the current understanding of the pathogen in the environment and highlights the unknowns that are most important for future study. Through a systematic Boolean review of the literature, our study finds that detailed field-based study of Leptospira prevalence, survival, and transmission in natural waters and soils is lacking from the current literature. This review identified a strong need for assessment of physical characteristics and biogeochemical processes that support long-term viability of Leptospira in the environment followed by epidemiological assessment of the transmission and movement of the same strains of Leptospira in the present wildlife and livestock as the first steps in improving our understanding of the environmental stage of the leptospirosis transmission cycle.

EA, Reis MG, Diggle PJ, Ko AI. Rainfall and other meteorological factors as drivers of urban transmission of leptospirosis

BACKGROUND

Leptospirosis is an important public health problem affecting vulnerable urban slum populations in developing country settings. However, the complex interaction of meteorological factors driving the temporal trends of leptospirosis remain incompletely understood.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

From March 1996-March 2010, we investigated the association between the weekly incidence of leptospirosis and meteorological anomalies in the city of Salvador, Brazil by using a dynamic generalized linear model that accounted for time lags, overall trend, and seasonal variation. Our model showed an increase of leptospirosis cases associated with higher than expected rainfall, lower than expected temperature and higher than expected humidity. There was a lag of one-to-two weeks between weekly values for significant meteorological variables and leptospirosis incidence. Independent of the season, a weekly cumulative rainfall anomaly of 20 mm increased the risk of leptospirosis by 12% compared to a week following the expected seasonal pattern. Finally, over the 14-year study period, the annual incidence of leptospirosis decreased significantly by a factor of 2.7 (8.3 versus 3.0 per 100,000 people), independently of variations in climate.

CONCLUSIONS

Strategies to control leptospirosis should focus on avoiding contact with contaminated sources of Leptospira as well as on increasing awareness in the population and health professionals within the short time window after low-level or extreme high-level rainfall events. Increased leptospirosis incidence was restricted to one-to-two weeks after those events suggesting that infectious Leptospira survival may be limited to short time intervals.

Assessment of Epidemiological Implications Due to Serial Tropical Cyclones in India: Introspecting the Recent Sanitation Interventions

OBJECTIVES

The Indian subcontinent is prone to tropical cyclones that used to originate in the North Indian Ocean. Through this study, an inventory of disease outbreaks for the tropical cyclone-affected regions from 2010 to 2018 has been compiled. This inventory is used to assess the success of recent sanitation intervention, Swachh Bharat Mission, also known as the Clean India Mission.

METHODS

Meteorological parameters from the Indian satellites were used to demarcate the cyclone-affected area. Disease outbreaks and epidemics during the tropical cyclones were compiled from the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program and other relevant sources. The inventory has been used to track the effect of recent sanitation interventions on disease outbreaks.

RESULTS

Districts in the eastern coast of India are frequently affected due to tropical cyclones that have originated from the North Indian Ocean. Infectious diseases like the acute diarrheal diseases, vector-borne diseases, viral fevers, enteric fevers, and food poisoning have recursively occurred during the cyclonic events and persisted up to 2 weeks from the cyclonic episode. The effectiveness of the Clean India Mission is evident during the recent cyclones, Ockhi, Titli, and Gaja, where a significantly lower number of infectious disease outbreaks were recorded.

CONCLUSIONS

The Clean India Mission has exhibited positive results on the public health consequences associated with tropical cyclones.