The cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical respiratory syncytial virus vaccine in the elderly

Cost-effectiveness of Prefusion F Protein-based Vaccines Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease for Older Adults in the United States

BACKGROUND

Two prefusion F protein-based vaccines, Arexvy and Abrysvo, have been authorized by the US Food and Drug Administration for protecting older adults against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated lower respiratory tract illness. We evaluated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of these vaccines.

METHODS

We developed a discrete-event simulation model, parameterized with the burden of RSV disease including outpatient care, hospitalization, and death for adults aged 60 years or older in the United States. Taking into account the costs associated with these RSV-related outcomes, we calculated the net monetary benefit using quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained as a measure of effectiveness and determined the range of price-per-dose (PPD) for Arexvy and Abrysvo vaccination programs to be cost-effective from a societal perspective.

RESULTS

Using a willingness-to-pay of $95 000 per QALY gained, we found that vaccination programs could be cost-effective for a PPD up to $127 with Arexvy and $118 with Abrysvo over the first RSV season. Achieving an influenza-like vaccination coverage of 66% for the population of older adults in the United States, the budget impact of these programs at the maximum PPD ranged from $6.48 to $6.78 billion. If the benefits of vaccination extend to a second RSV season as reported in clinical trials, we estimated a maximum PPD of $235 for Arexvy and $245 for Abrysvo, with 2-year budget impacts of $11.78 and $12.25 billion, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination of older adults would provide substantial direct health benefits by reducing outcomes associated with RSV-related illness in this population.

Cost-Effectiveness of Prefusion F Protein-Based Vaccines Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease for Older Adults in the United States

Background

Two prefusion F protein-based vaccines, Arexvy and Abrysvo, have been authorized by the US Food and Drug Administration for protecting older adults against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)-associated lower respiratory tract illness. We evaluated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of these vaccines.

Methods

We developed a discrete-event simulation model, parameterized with the burden of RSV disease including outpatient care, hospitalization, and death for adults aged 60 years or older in the US. Taking into account the costs associated with these RSV-related outcomes, we calculated the net monetary benefit using quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained as a measure of effectiveness, and determined the range of price-per-dose (PPD) for Arexvy and Abrysvo vaccination programs to be cost-effective from a societal perspective.

Results

Using a willingness-to-pay of $95,000 per QALY gained, we found that vaccination programs could be cost-effective for a PPD under $120 with Arexvy and $111 with Abrysvo over the first RSV season. Achieving an influenza-like vaccination coverage of 66% for the population of older adults in the US, the budget impact of these programs at the maximum PPD ranged from $5.74 to $6.10 billion. If the benefits of vaccination extend to a second RSV season as reported in clinical trials, we estimated a maximum PPD of $250 for Arexvy and $233 for Abrysvo, with two-year budget impacts of $11.59 and $10.89 billion, respectively.

Conclusions

Vaccination of older adults would provide substantial direct health benefits by reducing outcomes associated with RSV-related illness in this population.

Burden of illness associated with Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)-related hospitalizations among adults in Ontario, Canada: A retrospective population-based study

BACKGROUND

Globally, RSV is a common viral pathogen that causes 64 million acute respiratory infections annually. Our objective was to determine the incidence of hospitalization, healthcare resource use and associated costs of adults hospitalized with RSV in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

To describe the epidemiology of adults hospitalized with RSV, we used a validated algorithm applied to a population-based healthcare utilization administrative dataset in Ontario, Canada. We created a retrospective cohort of incident hospitalized adults with RSV between September 2010 and August 2017 and followed each person for up to two years. To determine the burden of illness associated with hospitalization and post-discharge healthcare encounters each RSV-admitted patient was matched to two unexposed controls based on demographics and risk factors. Patient demographics were described and mean attributable 6-month and 2-year healthcare costs (2019 Canadian dollars) were estimated.

RESULTS

There were 7,091 adults with RSV-associated hospitalizations between 2010 and 2019 with a mean age of 74.6 years; 60.4 % were female. RSV-coded hospitalization rates increased from 1.4 to 14.6 per 100,000 adults between 2010-2011 and 2018-2019. The mean difference in healthcare costs between RSV-admitted patients and matched controls was $28,260 (95 % CI: $27,728 - $28,793) in the first 6 months and $43,721 over 2 years (95 % CI: $40,383 - $47,059) post-hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

RSV hospitalizations among adults increased in Ontario between 2010/11 to 2018/19 RSV seasons. RSV hospitalizations in adults were associated with increased attributable short-term and long-term healthcare costs compared to matched controls. Interventions that could prevent RSV in adults may reduce healthcare burden.

Exploratory Analysis of the Economically Justifiable Price of a Hypothetical RSV Vaccine for Older Adults in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

In older adults, the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) resembles that of influenza and may even be considered worse due to the lack of preventive interventions. This study was performed to identify the available literature on RSV infection in older adults, and to provide updated exploratory results of the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical RSV vaccine in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

METHODS

A literature search was performed in Medline and EMBASE on 11 November 2019, which served as input for a static decision-tree model that was used to estimate the EJP, for an RSV vaccine applying different willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds. WTP thresholds applied were €20 000 and €50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year for the Netherlands, and £20 000 and £30 000 per quality-adjusted life-year for the United Kingdom. Analyses were-in line with country-specific guidelines-conducted from a societal perspective for the Netherlands and a third-party payer perspective for the United Kingdom. The robustness of the cost-effectiveness results was tested in sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

After screening the literature, 3 studies for the Netherlands and 6 for the United Kingdom remained to populate the country-specific models. In the base case analysis for the Netherlands (mean RSV incidence, 3.32%), justifiable vaccine prices of €16.38 and €50.03 were found, based on applying the lower and higher WTP thresholds, respectively. Similarly, for the United Kingdom (mean incidence, 7.13%), vaccine prices of £72.29 and £109.74 were found, respectively.

CONCLUSION

RSV vaccination may well be cost-effective in both the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, depending on the exact RSV incidence, vaccine effectiveness and price. However, sensitivity analysis showed that the results were robust based on varying the different parameter estimates and assumptions. With RSV vaccines reaching the final stages of development, a strong need exists for cost-effectiveness studies to understand economically justifiable pricing of the vaccine.

Clinical and economic outcomes associated with respiratory syncytial virus vaccination in older adults in the United States

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of lower respiratory infections and hospitalizations among older adults. We aimed to estimate the potential clinical benefits and economic value of RSV vaccination of older adults in the United States (US).

METHODS

We developed an economic model using a decision-tree framework to capture outcomes associated with RSV infections in US adults aged ≥ 60 years occurring during one RSV season for a hypothetical vaccine versus no vaccine. Two co-base-case epidemiology sources were selected from a targeted review of the US literature: a landmark study capturing all RSV infections and a contemporary study reporting medically attended RSV that also distinguishes mild from moderate-to-severe disease. Both base-case analyses used recent data on mortality risk in the year after RSV hospitalizations. Direct medical costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost per case were obtained from the literature and publicly available sources. Model outcomes included the population-level clinical and economic RSV disease burden among older adults, potential vaccine-avoidable disease burden, and the potential value-based price of a vaccine from a third-party payer perspective.

RESULTS

Our two base-case analyses estimated that a vaccine with 50% efficacy and coverage matching that of influenza vaccination would prevent 43,700-81,500 RSV hospitalizations and 8,000-14,900 RSV-attributable deaths per RSV season, resulting in 1,800-3,900 fewer QALYs lost and avoiding $557-$1,024 million. Value-based prices for the co-base-case analyses were $152-$299 per vaccination at a willingness to pay of $100,000/QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses found that the economic value of vaccination was most sensitive to RSV incidence and increased posthospitalization mortality risks.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite variability and gaps in the epidemiology literature, this study highlights the potential value of RSV vaccination for older adults in the US. Our analysis provides contemporary estimates of the population-level RSV disease burden and insights into the economic value drivers for RSV vaccination.

Cost determinants among adults hospitalized with respiratory syncytial virus in the United States, 2017-2019

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are common in adults, but data describing the cost of RSV-associated hospitalization are lacking due to inconsistency in diagnostic coding and incomplete case ascertainment. We evaluated costs of RSV-associated hospitalization in adult patients with laboratory-confirmed, community-onset RSV.

METHODS

We included adults ≥ 18 years of age admitted to three hospital systems in New York during two RSV seasons who were RSV-positive by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and had more than or equal to two acute respiratory infection symptoms or exacerbation of underlying cardiopulmonary disease. We abstracted costs from hospital finance systems or converted hospital charges to cost using cost-charge ratios. We converted cost into 2020 US dollars and extrapolated to the United States. We used a generalized linear model to determine predictors of hospitalization cost, stratified by admission to intensive care units (ICU).

RESULTS

Cost data were available for 79% (601/756) of eligible patients. The mean total cost of hospitalization was $8403 (CI₉₅ $7240-$9741). The highest costs were those attributed to ICU services $7885 (CI₉₅ $5877-$10,240), whereas the lowest were radiology $324 (CI₉₅ $275-$376). Other than longer length of stay, predictors of higher cost included having chronic liver disease (odds ratio [OR] 1.38 [CI₉₅ 1.05-1.80]) for patients without ICU admission and antibiotic use (OR 1.49 [CI₉₅ 1.10-2.03]) for patients with ICU admission. The annual US cost was estimated to be $1.2 (CI₉₅ 0.9-1.4) billion.

CONCLUSION

The economic burden of RSV hospitalization of adults ≥ 18 years of age in the United States is substantial. RSV vaccine programs may be useful in reducing this economic burden.

Assessment of the Effects of Active Immunisation against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) using Decision-Analytic Models: A Systematic Review with a Focus on Vaccination Strategies, Modelling Methods and Input Data

BACKGROUND

Several vaccine and antibody candidates are currently in development for the prevention of lower respiratory tract infections caused by the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and SCOPUS and included model-based evaluations of RSV vaccinations. Two reviewers performed the selection, data extraction, and quality evaluation with EVIDEM. Cost-effectiveness (CE) estimates were converted to $US purchasing power parity (PPP), year 2018 values. Potential economic and epidemiological outcomes were summarised for maternal, infant, children, and elderly vaccinations. The PROSPERO identifier is CRD42019122570.

RESULTS

In total, 22 model-based studies were reviewed. On average, a potential 27% reduction in RSV hospitalisations in infants was projected for maternal vaccination and 50% for direct infant immunisation. The CE of maternal vaccination was $US1766-5857 PPP 2018/disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (Gavi)-eligible countries. For England, the maximum cost-effective price of maternal vaccination was estimated at $US81.5 PPP 2018. Infant vaccination was associated with higher CE ratios in low- and high-income settings. Vaccination of neonates born before the RSV season was the most cost effective in high-income settings. Higher values for vaccine effectiveness, duration of protection, and vaccine uptake increased the benefits. Due to indirect effects, the vaccination of school-age children and a cocooning strategy were effective alternatives to protect infants, and the vaccination of children aged < 5 years had a beneficial impact on the elderly.

CONCLUSION

RSV vaccines with anticipated characteristics may reduce a sizeable proportion of the RSV burden. The results are subject to uncertainty because of the limited epidemiological and clinical data. Data on RSV incidence and hospitalisation risk for granular age strata should be prioritised to facilitate the evaluation of RSV interventions and decision making.

Potential Cost-Effectiveness of RSV Vaccination of Infants and Pregnant Women in Turkey: An Illustration Based on Bursa Data

Background

Worldwide, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is considered to be the most important viral cause of respiratory morbidity and mortality among infants and young children. Although no active vaccine is available on the market yet, there are several active vaccine development programs in various stages. To assess whether one of these vaccines might be a future asset for national immunization programs, modeling the costs and benefits of various vaccination strategies is needed.

Objectives

To evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of RSV vaccination of infants and/or pregnant women in Turkey.

Methods

A multi-cohort static Markov model with cycles of one month was used to compare the cost-effectiveness of vaccinated cohorts versus non-vaccinated cohorts. The 2014 Turkish birth cohort was divided by twelve to construct twelve monthly birth cohorts of equal size (111,459 new-borns). Model input was based on clinical data from a multicenter prospective study from Bursa, Turkey, combined with figures from the (inter)national literature and publicly available data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜÏK). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were expressed in Turkish Lira (TL) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.

Results

Vaccinating infants at 2 and 4 months of age would prevent 145,802 GP visits, 8,201 hospitalizations and 48 deaths during the first year of life, corresponding to a total gain of 1650 QALYs. The discounted ICER was estimated at 51,969 TL (26,220 US $ in 2013) per QALY gained. Vaccinating both pregnant women and infants would prevent more cases, but was less attractive from a pure economic point of view with a discounted ICER of 61,653 TL (31,106 US $ in 2013) per QALY. Vaccinating only during pregnancy would result in fewer cases prevented than infant vaccination and a less favorable ICER.

Conclusion

RSV vaccination of infants and/or pregnant women has the potential to be cost-effective in Turkey. Although using relatively conservative assumptions, all evaluated strategies remained slightly below the threshold of 3 times the GDP per capita.

Cost-effectiveness of next-generation vaccines: The case of pertussis

Despite steady vaccination coverage rates, pertussis incidence in the United States has continued to rise. This public health challenge has motivated calls for the development of a new vaccine with greater efficacy and duration of protection. Any next-generation vaccine would likely come at a higher cost, and must provide sufficient health benefits beyond those provided by the current vaccine in order to be deemed cost-effective. Using an age-structured transmission model of pertussis, we quantified the health and economic benefits of a next-generation vaccine that would enhance either the efficacy or duration of protection of the childhood series, the duration of the adult booster, or a combination. We developed a metric, the maximum cost-effective price increase (MCPI), to compare the potential value of such improvements. The MCPI estimates the per-dose price increase that would maintain the cost-effectiveness of pertussis vaccination. We evaluated the MCPI across a range of potential single and combined improvements to the pertussis vaccine. As an upper bound, we found that a next-generation vaccine which could achieve perfect efficacy for the childhood series would permit an MCPI of $18 per dose (95% CI: $12-$31). Pertussis vaccine improvements that extend the duration of protection to an average of 75 years would allow for an MCPI of $22 per dose for the childhood series (CI: $10-$33) or $12 for the adult booster (CI: $4-$18). Despite the short duration of the adult booster, improvements to the childhood series could be more valuable than improvements to the adult booster. Combining improvements in both efficacy and duration, a childhood series with perfect efficacy and average duration of 75 years would permit an MCPI of $39 per dose, the highest of any scenario evaluated. Our results highlight the utility of the MCPI metric in evaluating potential vaccines or other interventions when prices are unknown.

RSV vaccine in development: assessing the potential cost-effectiveness in the Dutch elderly population

OBJECTIVES

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is increasingly recognized as an important cause of morbidity, mortality and health-care utilization in the elderly population. A theoretical model was built to assess the levels of vaccine effectiveness and vaccine costs for which a hypothetical RSV-vaccine for Dutch elderly could be cost-effective.

METHODS

Different vaccination strategies were evaluated by changing the levels of vaccine effectiveness and the willingness to pay per quality-adjusted life year gained (QALY). Outcome measures included direct medical costs, QALYs, life years gained, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and the maximum total vaccination costs per individual (i.e. (vaccine price+administration costs)×nr of doses) while remaining cost-effective.

RESULTS

Using base-case assumptions, it was estimated that vaccination of all persons 60 years and older would prevent 3402GP visits, 2989 antibiotic prescriptions, 535 hospitalizations and 249 deaths and would cost €73,261 per QALY, for a vaccine effectiveness of 70%. Vaccinating only the high risk population of 60 years and older would reduce the estimates to 2042GP visits, 2009 antibiotic prescriptions, 179 hospitalizations and 209 deaths and this reduced the cost per QALY to €34,796 per QALY. Using the same assumptions, the maximum total vaccination costs per individual ranged from €26 when vaccinating all persons 60 and older to €68 when vaccinating only persons aged 85 and above, using a willingness to pay threshold of €50,000 per QALY. For the high risk population aged 60 years and older the estimated maximum total vaccination costs ranged from €52 to €99.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination of Dutch elderly against RSV was found cost-effective for several scenarios. As expected, vaccination is more likely to be cost-effective when only including persons who are at increased risk for contracting RSV or the potential complications of RSV. This theoretical study shows that based on the disease burden in the Dutch population aged 60yrs and older there is potential to develop a vaccine that might be considered cost-effective in the Netherlands.

Respiratory syncytial virus immunization program for the United States: impact of performance determinants of a theoretical vaccine

OBJECTIVES

To inform strategic decisions on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine development and identify critical endpoints likely to drive the vaccine's medical and economic impact.

DESIGN

A decision-analysis model populated using healthcare utilization data and costs from the literature; vaccine efficacy and duration based on assumptions.

SETTING

Vaccination in the physician office setting in the USA.

PARTICIPANTS

A hypothetical cohort of newborn infants.

INTERVENTION

Vaccination of children at low and high risk of respiratory sequelae with a theoretical RSV vaccine vs palivizumab prophylaxis for children at high risk.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Medical and economic value of RSV vaccination, including cost per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.

RESULTS

Using base-case assumptions (efficacy 50% at birth; half-life 12 months), RSV vaccination would prevent 23,069 hospitalizations and 66 deaths per vaccinated birth cohort in the USA. Excluding vaccination costs, direct medical costs for RSV would reduce by $236 million, and income and productivity losses by $134 million. Assuming a vaccine cost per course similar to Rotarix® in the USA ($232 including administration fees), the cost per QALY gained would be $93,401 (95% CI: $65,815-$126,060) from the healthcare system perspective and $65,115 (95% CI: $41,003-$93,679) from the societal perspective. The net cost (healthcare system perspective) per life-year saved would be $216,120 (95% CI: $161,184-$263,981); the cost per hospitalization averted would be $19,172 (95% CI: $14,679-$22,093). Aside from efficacy, the vaccine's impact is sensitive to the start of protective immunity and the duration of protection.

CONCLUSIONS

Development of an RSV vaccine would substantially reduce inpatient hospitalizations and outpatient visits. It would also have an impact on infant mortality. To demonstrate the full medical and economic value of the vaccine, appropriate endpoints or endpoint surrogates for hospitalization, mortality, and total case reductions should be collected during vaccine development.

The use of modeling in the economic evaluation of vaccines

As a consequence of the increased role of pharmacoeconomics in policy-making, economic evaluations are performed at more and more early stages in the development of a therapeutic. This implies the development of models to assess the future impact of an intervention and to account for the level of uncertainty in the associated parameters. This also applies for economic evaluations of vaccines, where not only progression of disease and associated costs are important, but the transmission of the causing agent in the target population also has to be modelled. In this review, we provide an overview of the models that have been used in recent publications on the pharmacoeconomics of vaccines and go deeper into some of the methodological issues associated with the use of models in the economic evaluation of vaccines.

Measuring the value of public health systems: the disconnect between health economists and public health practitioners

We investigated ways of defining and measuring the value of services provided by governmental public health systems. Our data sources included literature syntheses and qualitative interviews of public health professionals. Our examination of the health economic literature revealed growing attempts to measure value of public health services explicitly, but few studies have addressed systems or infrastructure. Interview responses demonstrated no consensus on metrics and no connection to the academic literature. Key challenges for practitioners include developing rigorous, data-driven methods and skilled staff; being politically willing to base allocation decisions on economic evaluation; and developing metrics to capture "intangibles" (e.g., social justice and reassurance value). Academic researchers evaluating the economics of public health investments should increase focus on the working needs of public health professionals.

What is the role of virus vaccination in patients with asthma?

It is estimated that viruses play a role in 30% to 80% of asthma exacerbations. Thus, virus vaccination in patients with asthma could play an important role in preventing asthma exacerbations and other complications. Influenza is the only agent for which a routine vaccine is currently available. This article discusses whether influenza vaccination in patients with asthma, based on the available evidence, is justified. Cost-effectiveness of (influenza) vaccination for patients with asthma is questionable. For the other major viruses involved, the present state of affairs is described. Although progress is being made, a vaccine may be available in the near future only for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Meanwhile, clinicians and patients should aim for an optimal treatment with the currently available asthma medication.

The incidence of chickenpox in the community. Lessons for disease surveillance in sentinel practice networks

Sentinel practice networks have been established in many European countries to monitor disease incidence in the community. To demonstrate the value of sentinel networks an international study on the incidence of chicken pox has been undertaken. Chickenpox was chosen as an acute condition for which incidence data are important to the determination of health policy on vaccine use. The project examined the incidence of chickenpox reported in sentinel networks in England and Wales, The Netherlands, Portugal and Spain (two regional networks) in January-June 2000 and the potential underestimate from patients who did not consult. An investigation of secondary household contact cases was undertaken. Reported incidence of chickenpox (all ages) in England and Wales was 25 per 10,000, in The Netherlands 13 per 10,000, in Portugal 21 per 10,000, in Spain Castilla y Leon 27 per 10,000 and in Spain Basque 55 per 10,000. Analysis of secondary contact cases suggested underestimation of incidence between 2.4% in Spain Castilla y Leon and 32.2% in The Netherlands. There was a trend towards incidence at an earlier age in England and Wales and in The Netherlands compared with Portugal and Spain. Whilst there was little problem in reliably identifying the number of incident cases in the recording networks and relating the non-consulting contact cases to them, the security of the denominator remains a problem where networks are comprised of differing categories of health care provider. It is essential that numerator and denominator information are made available specifically for each category.

Passive transfer of serum antibodies induced by BBG2Na, a subunit vaccine, in the elderly protects SCID mouse lungs against respiratory syncytial virus challenge

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is responsible for severe low respiratory tract infections in young infants and the elderly. To investigate whether BBG2Na, a recombinant subunit vaccine comprising aa 130-230 of the RSV G protein, induced protective Abs in subjects over 60 years during phase II clinical trial, pre- and postimmunization sera of individuals immunized with BBG2Na or placebo were transferred into SCID mice before RSV challenge. These sera dose-dependently reduced lung RSV titers. However at some points of serial dilutions, postimmunization sera of BBG2Na-immunized subjects only were significantly more efficient than the corresponding preimmunization sera, in agreement with the induction of an increased Ab response against multiple epitopes on RSV-A G protein. Thus, BBG2Na is immunogenic in the elderly and confers passive protection in mice after serum transfer. To our knowledge, this is the first description of protective Abs induced by a subunit vaccine in human.

Influenza diagnosis and treatment: a view from clinical practice

Influenza is a descriptive term for respiratory epidemic disease presenting with cough and fever. Influenza viruses are probably the most important of the pathogens that cause this condition. Clinical influenza occurs almost every winter in England and Wales and the outbreaks last 8-10 weeks. In recent years, influenza B virus outbreaks have occurred in January and February, whereas influenza H3N2 virus outbreaks have generally started long before Christmas. Influenza H3N2 virus outbreaks pressurize health service resources in winter more than influenza B viruses, that do not have the same impact in elderly people. Infections with influenza H1N1 viruses are also usually less severe in their impact than those with influenza H3N2 viruses, but, unlike influenza B viruses, influenza H1N1 viruses have a pandemic potential along with influenza H3N2 viruses. A diagnosis of respiratory infection in primary care is based on the presenting symptoms set within the context of the current pattern of consultations of patients with similar illness. Measurement of temperature, inspection of the throat and examination of the chest or ears add a little to the diagnostic process, but in general these procedures do not help in identifying the organism. However, if it is known that influenza viruses are circulating in the community, the probability of influenza as the cause is greatly increased, as was shown in clinical trials of neuraminidase antivirals. Maximum confusion occurs when respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza cocirculate. Although RSV infection can occur throughout the winter in young children, it assumes more of an epidemic character just before Christmas in children and possibly in adults just after. During seven of the last 20 winters, influenza has been prevalent around Christmas/New Year. In routine virological surveillance of influenza-like illness in the community during the winters of 1997, 1998 and 1999, ca. 30% of swab specimens yielded influenza viruses and 20% RSV. Given the limitations for routine surveillance, including variations in the interval between illness onset and specimen capture, the quality of swab, delays in transport, the growth properties of virus culture methods, etc., these figures probably underestimate the impact of both viruses in the community. The impact of influenza is considered against the background of total respiratory infections presenting to general practitioners over the last 10 years and some comparisons are made with the 1969 pandemic experience. Lessons relevant to pandemic planning are drawn. Current options for investigation and treatment are compared with those available in 1969. These include near-patient tests for assisting with diagnosis, widespread use of vaccination as a preventive in patients at increased risk, the availability of amantadine and the newer neuraminidase inhibitor antivirals and changes in the delivery of health care. Major advances in the understanding of influenza and improvements in investigation and treatment have taken place over the last 30 years. However, there are many obstacles before these can be translated into effective management of influenza sufferers and control of major epidemics.