Land-use planning in the vicinity of chemical sites: risk-informed decision making at a local community level

Analysis of spatial planning documents and strategic environmental assessment reports with regard to hazards of major industrial accidents: a case study involving six Polish cities

In the event of an accident in an industrial plant, the damage caused by it can be enormous. There may be environmental contamination in a large area. Injured persons may be both employees of the plant staying on its premises and local residents. The control of major accidents is realised by implementing the procedures regarding: safety analysis, emergency and operational planning, effective land-use planning (LUP), strategic environmental assessment (SEA), environmental impact assessment (EIA) and public consultation. The paper presents findings of a case study aiming to analyse selected spatial planning documents prepared at the municipality and SEA reports accompanying them, with regard to hazards of major industrial accidents in six Polish cities. In addition, changes of relevant Polish legislation taking place from 1995 till now are explained referring to European Union (EU) law. This article is the very first to present the situation concerning LUP around hazardous plants in Poland based on such extensive data. The assessment shows that the way of recording the major accident hazards is varied, but legal norms, binding at the time when the documents were drawn up, were met in each of the analysed documents. Changes of relevant Poland legislation were not the only reason for differences in the ways of recording the hazards of major industrial accidents in these documents. The case study has revealed that relevant Polish regulations can be still improved. The results of the study have useful implications for the control of major accidents, spatial policy-making and environmental management.

Dynamic Semi-Quantitative Risk Research in Chemical Plants

When a major accident occurs in a chemical industry park, it directly affects the personal safety of operators and neighboring residents and causes major losses; therefore, we should take measures to strengthen the management of chemical industry parks. This article proposes and analyzes a new dynamic semi-quantitative risk calculation model for chemical plants that can be applied digitally. This model provides a sustainable, standardized, and comprehensive management strategy for the safety management of chemical plants and chemical industry park managers. The model and its determined parameters were applied to the safety management of chemical companies within the chemical industry park of Quzhou, Zhejiang Province. From the point of view of the existing semi-quantitative model, the existing problems of the current model are analyzed, the current model is optimized, and a new dynamic semi-quantitative calculation model scheme is proposed. The new model uses an analytical hierarchy process targeting the factors affecting the risks in chemical plants, and chemical plant semi-quantitative dynamic calculation system consisting of the operator, process/equipment, risk, building environment, safety management, and domino effect, and the comprehensive risk of the chemical plant was calculated. The model is ultimately a real-time quantitative value, but its calculation process can compare and analyze the causes of high risk in a chemical plant as they relate to these six factors. Its implementation requires only software, which will greatly help chemical plant safety management.

Assessing Major Accident Risks to Support Land-Use Planning Using a Severity-Vulnerability Combination Method: A Case Study in Dagushan Peninsula, China

Major accident risks posed by chemical hazards have raised major social concerns in today's China. Land-use planning has been adopted by many countries as one of the essential elements for accident prevention. This article aims at proposing a method to assess major accident risks to support land-use planning in the vicinity of chemical installations. This method is based on the definition of risk by the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for IndustrieS (ARAMIS) project and it is an expansion application of severity and vulnerability assessment tools. The severity and vulnerability indexes from the ARAMIS methodology are employed to assess both the severity and vulnerability levels, respectively. A risk matrix is devised to support risk ranking and compatibility checking. The method consists of four main steps and is presented in geographical information-system-based maps. As an illustration, the proposed method is applied in Dagushan Peninsula, China. The case study indicated that the method could not only aid risk regulations on existing land-use planning, but also support future land-use planning by offering alternatives or influencing the plans at the development stage, and thus further enhance the roles and influence of land-use planning in the accident prevention activities in China.

Risk assessment of major hazards and its application in urban planning: a case study

With the rapid development of industry in China, the number of establishments that are proposed or under construction is increasing year by year, and many are industries that handle flammable, explosive, toxic, harmful, and dangerous substances. Accidents such as fire, explosion, and toxic diffusion inevitably happen. Accidents resulting from these major hazards in cities cause a large number of casualties and property losses. It is increasingly important to analyze the risk of major hazards in cities realistically and to suitably plan and utilize the surrounding land based on the risk analysis results, thereby reducing the hazards. A theoretical system for risk assessment of major hazards in cities is proposed in this article, and the major hazard risk for the entire city is analyzed quantitatively. Risks of various major accidents are considered together, superposition effect is analyzed, individual risk contours of the entire city are drawn out, and the level of risk in the city is assessed using "as low as reasonably practicable" guidelines. After the entire city's individual risk distribution is obtained, risk zones are divided according to corresponding individual risk value of HSE, and land-use planning suggestions are proposed. Finally, a city in China is used as an example to illustrate the risk assessment process of the city's major hazard and its application in urban land-use planning. The proposed method has a certain theoretical and practical significance in establishing and improving risk analysis of major hazard and urban land-use planning. On the one hand, major urban public risk is avoided; further, the land is utilized in the best possible way in order to obtain the maximum benefit from its use.

The use of individual and societal risk criteria within the Dutch flood safety policy--nationwide estimates of societal risk and policy applications

The Dutch government is in the process of revising its flood safety policy. The current safety standards for flood defenses in the Netherlands are largely based on the outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. Loss of life has not been considered separately in the choice for current standards. This article presents the results of a research project that evaluated the potential roles of two risk metrics, individual and societal risk, to support decision making about new flood safety standards. These risk metrics are already used in the Dutch major hazards policy for the evaluation of risks to the public. Individual risk concerns the annual probability of death of a person. Societal risk concerns the probability of an event with many fatalities. Technical aspects of the use of individual and societal risk metrics in flood risk assessments as well as policy implications are discussed. Preliminary estimates of nationwide levels of societal risk are presented. Societal risk levels appear relatively high in the southwestern part of the country where densely populated dike rings are threatened by a combination of river and coastal floods. It was found that cumulation, the simultaneous flooding of multiple dike rings during a single flood event, has significant impact on the national level of societal risk. Options for the application of the individual and societal risk in the new flood safety policy are presented and discussed.

Land-use planning in the vicinity of major accident hazard installations in Greece

Land-use planning, as concerns the prevention and limitation of the consequences of possible major accidents from industrial installations, is an essential mechanism for dealing with actual or potential conflicts between sources of risk, such as potentially hazardous industrial developments, and surrounding land-uses. The objective of this paper is to present a decision making methodology that is suitable for assisting urban and spatial planning in the vicinity of hazardous installations and therefore covers the directions of Article 12 of the European Council Directive 96/82/EC (the so-called SEVESO II directive). The proposed methodology was designed to address the particularities of the Greek case, regarding the type and availability of risk and spatial data. It incorporates a broad set of multiple and conflicting criteria that arise in land-use planning decisions, through the application of a well known multi-criteria decision analysis method (ELECTRE TRI). Additionally, it is easy to use (comprised of simple steps) and can be readily incorporated into Geographical Information System based platforms.

Introduction of threat analysis into the land-use planning process

The subject of this paper is a method for introducing risk assessment into the land-use planning (LUP) process. Due to adaptations of the results of risk assessment, which are needed to make the risk assessment usable by land-use planners, we term the overall process threat analysis. The key features of the threat analysis can be summarised as follows. (i) It consists of three main steps. The first is determination of the threat intensity level of an accident, the second is analysis of the environmental vulnerability of the surroundings of an accident, and the third, integrating the previous two, is determination of a threat index in the accident impact zone. All three are presented in GIS based maps, since this is a common expression in LUP. (ii) It can and should be applied in the early stages of the LUP process. The methodology is illustrated by an example in the context of renewal of a land-use plan for the Municipality of Koper in Slovenia. The approach of threat analysis follows directions of the Article 12 of the Directive 96/82/EC of the European Commission (the Seveso II Directive).

Cellular automata-based systematic risk analysis approach for emergency response

Emergency response is directly related to the allocation of emergency rescue resources. Efficient emergency response can reduce loss of life and property, limit damage from the primary impact, and minimize damage from derivative impacts. An appropriate risk analysis approach in the event of accidents is one rational way to assist emergency response. In this article, a cellular automata-based systematic approach for conducting risk analysis in emergency response is presented. Three general rules, i.e., diffusive effect, transporting effect, and dissipative effect, are developed to implement cellular automata transition function. The approach takes multiple social factors such as population density and population sensitivity into consideration and it also considers risk of domino accidents that are increasing due to increasing congestion in industrial complexes of a city and increasing density of human population. In addition, two risk indices, i.e., individual risk and aggregated weighted risk, are proposed to assist decision making for emergency managers during emergency response. Individual risk can be useful to plan evacuation strategies, while aggregated weighted risk can help emergency managers to allocate rescue resources rationally according to the degree of danger in each vulnerable area and optimize emergency response programs.

Cellular automata-based forecasting of the impact of accidental fire and toxic dispersion in process industries

The strategies to prevent accidents from occurring in a process industry, or to minimize the harm if an accident does take place, always revolve around forecasting the likely accidents and their impacts. Based on the likely frequency and severity of the accidents, resources are committed towards preventing the accidents. Nearly all techniques of ranking hazardous units, be it the hazard and operability studies, fault tree analysis, hazard indice, etc.--qualitative as well as quantitative--depend essentially on the assessment of the likely frequency and the likely harm accidents in different units may cause. This fact makes it exceedingly important that the forecasting the accidents and their likely impact is done as accurately as possible. In the present study we introduce a new approach to accident forecasting based on the discrete modeling paradigm of cellular automata. In this treatment an accident is modeled as a self-evolving phenomena, the impact of which is strongly influenced by the size, nature, and position of the environmental components which lie in the vicinity of the accident site. The outward propagation of the mass, energy and momentum from the accident epicenter is modeled as a fast diffusion process occurring in discrete space-time coordinates. The quantum of energy and material that would flow into each discrete space element (cell) due to the accidental release is evaluated and the degree of vulnerability posed to the receptors if present in the cell is measured at the end of each time element. This approach is able to effectively take into account the modifications in the flux of energy and material which occur as a result of the heterogeneous environment prevailing between the accident epicenter and the receptor. Consequently, more realistic accident scenarios are generated than possible with the prevailing techniques. The efficacy of the approach has been illustrated with case studies.

The use of geographic information systems in major accident risk assessment and management

The paper discusses the use of modern information technologies, and in particular geographic information systems (GIS), in the management and control of major accident risk. For this purpose, the regulatory framework of the recent "Seveso II" Directive is briefly described. This asks for more transparent procedures and decision-making, and requires consultation of the public in land-use and off-site emergency planning. Correspondingly, new demands are put to support tools being developed. The main features of tools dealing with hazard sources mapping, risk assessment, risk management, and emergency planning are discussed and examples are given. Moreover, it is argued that, if appropriately designed, their use can enhance the dialog between plant operators, authorities and the public to facilitate a consensus on risk issues. Finally, limitations in the use of these tools and prospects for future developments are discussed.