Relatedness testing in subdivided populations

Review: Wildlife forensic genetics-Biological evidence, DNA markers, analytical approaches, and challenges

Wildlife-related crimes are the second most prevalent lawbreaking offense globally. This illicit trade encompasses hunting, breeding and trafficking. Besides diminishing many species and their habitats and ecosystems, hindering the economic development of local communities that depend on them, undermining the rule of law and financing terrorism, various cross-species transmissions (zoonoses) of pathogens, including COVID-19, can be attributed to wildlife crimes. Wildlife forensics applies interdisciplinary scientific analyses to support law enforcement in investigating wildlife crimes. Its main objectives are to identify the taxonomic species in question, determine if a crime has been committed, link a suspect to the crime and support the conviction and prosecution of the perpetrator. This article reviews wildlife crime and its implications, wildlife forensic science investigation, common forms of wildlife biological evidence, including DNA, wildlife DNA techniques and challenges in wildlife forensic genetics. The article also reviews the contributions of genetic markers such as short tandem repeat (STR) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers, which provide the probative genetic data representing the bulk of DNA evidence for solving wildlife crime. This review provides an overview of wildlife DNA databases, which are critical for searching and matching forensic DNA profiles and sequences and establishing how frequent forensic DNA profiles and sequences are in a particular population or geographic region. As such, this review will contain an in-depth analysis of the current status of wildlife forensic genetics, and it will be of general interest to wildlife and conservation biologists, law enforcement officers, and academics interested in combating crimes against wildlife using animal forensic DNA methods.

Dispersal patterns of a recovering brown bear (Ursus arctos) population in a human-dominated landscape

Despite increasing habitat fragmentation, large carnivore populations in parts of Europe have been recovering and expanding into human-dominated areas. Knowledge of animal dispersal patterns in such areas is important for their conservation, management, and coexistence with humans. We used genetic data based on 15 microsatellite markers from 312 individuals (98 females, 214 males) to assess kinship and dispersal patterns during the recovery and spatial expansion of a wild brown bear (Ursus arctos) population (2003–2010) in the human-dominated landscape of Greece. We hypothesized that bear dispersal in Greece was sex-biased, with females being more philopatric and males dispersing more frequently and over greater distances. Dispersal indeed was sex-biased, with males dispersing more frequently and farther than females. Overall, females were found to be philopatric; males also appeared to be philopatric, but to a lesser degree. However, a high proportion of females displayed dispersal behavior, which may be indicative of a pre-saturation stage of the population in that part of the country. Our results indicate that dispersal may be due to evading competition and avoiding inbreeding. We also documented long-distance dispersal of bears, which is considered to be indicative of a spatially expanding population. Our results highlight the value of using noninvasive genetic monitoring data to assess kinship among individuals and study dispersal patterns in human-dominated landscapes. Brown bears remain threatened in Greece; we therefore recommend systematic genetic monitoring of the species in combination with careful habitat management to protect suitable habitat (i.e., dispersal corridors) and ultimately ensure co-existence with humans and survival of brown bears in the country.

Uniparental disomy of chromosome 21: A statistical approach and application in paternity tests

Considering the overall frequency of paternity investigation cases including mutational events, there is a real possibility that at least a fraction of all inconsistencies reported in paternity cases are caused not by polymerase slippage mutations, but to chromosomic abnormalities, as Uniparental Disomy (UPD). We report here the investigation of a trio paternity case (mother, child and alleged father), with observed inconsistencies that can alternatively be explained by occurrence of maternal uniparental isodisomy of chromosome 21 (miUPD21). A total of 350 short tandem repeat (STR) and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers were tested, statistically suggesting true biological linkage within the trio. Additionally, we propose miUPD21 explains, with significantly greater probability, the occurrence of detected inconsistencies, when compared to alternative hypothesis of multiple and simultaneous slippage mutations. Similar cases could have their statistical conclusions improved or even altered by including unusual chromosomal segregation patterns in the hypothesis formulation, as well as in mathematical calculations. Such reports of allelic inconsistencies being explained by chromosomal alterations are common in clinical genetics, and such situations might have impact on forensic investigation.

ForeStatistics: A windows-based feature-rich software program for performing statistics in forensic DNA analysis, paternity and relationship testing

Forensic science is one of the most modern and applied fields of science, today and comprises of various domains. These include Fingerprints analysis, Questioned document analysis, Forensic DNA and serology, Anthropometry, Cyber and Digital forensics, and many other fields. All these fields aid the process of decision making in the courts of law and legal settings; however, DNA profiling and its analyses are one of the most important aspects of forensic science today. In Forensic DNA analysis, the statistical calculations are very important to estimate the conclusiveness of DNA evidence in forensic cases; and to establish paternity and relatedness in civil and criminal matters. These statistics, when performed manually, leave a chance of error or ambiguity in the calculation, and are hectic and time-taking. Therefore, the computer-aided approaches are opted in forensics to perform DNA statistics calculations. Keeping its importance in mind, a highly accurate windows-based software program namely ForeStatistics is proposed in this study. ForeStatistics is rich in features such as DNA statistical calculations, DNA profile management and its matching. The software can estimate random match probabilities for single-source profiles, combined probability of inclusion for mixed profiles, paternity index of a disputed child in duo and trio cases, paternity of the disputed child when the alleged father is related to mother or biological father and relatedness in cases of grandparents/grandchild, avuncular relation and cousin. It is validated through different protocols and the validation of ForeStatistics depicts that it is highly accurate in terms of performing DNA statistics or DNA profile matching. Thus, it is concluded, that ForeStatistics has a great utility in the field of Forensic DNA analysis and can help DNA scientists, in performing various DNA related statistics, accurately and very efficiently. ForeStatistics can be downloaded freely from (http://zeetu.org/forestatistics.html).

A new framework to test parent-child and full sibling relationships with population substructure

Familial search is a statistical approach that is used to infer genetic relationships between a forensic sample and individuals in a DNA database. Several authors have proposed likelihood ratio-based statistics for testing parent-child and full sibling relationships when population substructure exists. This paper proposes three new statistics and investigates performance of each statistic based on Type I error and power. Three statistics, defined by (1) the local allele frequency, (2) the Balding-Nichols approach and (3) the ratio between the maximum of the genotype probabilities over racial subgroup, were found to be good for testing these two types of familial relationships. Power analyses within racial groups are also included, with the power highest for African-American samples and lowest for Caucasian samples. Finally, simulation studies were done on both original and extended CODIS core loci. There were clear differences in power, with the power substantially higher for extended CODIS core loci.

Forensic parameters and mutation analysis of 23 short tandem repeat (PowerPlex® Fusion System) loci in Fujian Han Chinese population

Kinship testing based on genetic markers has valuable practical applications. Short tandem repeat polymorphisms (STRPs) can have large number of alleles, and become the dominant marker for kinship identification. However, the high mutation rates affect the identification accuracy. Thus, accurate investigation of the mutation rate of STR loci in different populations is crucial for the reliability of phylogenetic relationships. In present study, forensic parameters and mutation rates (include 95% CI) of 23 short tandem repeats (STR) loci (D3S1358, D1S1656, D2S441, D10S1248, D13S317, D16S539, D18S51, D2S1338, CSF1PO, TH01, vWA, D21S11, D7S820, D5S818, TPOX, D8S1179, D12S391, D19S433, FGA, D22S1045, PentaE, PentaD and DYS391) were investigated through PowerPlex® Fusion System in Fujian Han population. The high level of CDP (0.999999999999999999999999992) and CPE (0.999999993) indicated the panel was high efficiency in forensic DNA identification and paternity testing. In mutation analysis, 43 mutation cases were found through 54,124 parent-child meiotic transfers. The observed mutation rates ranged from 0 (D3S1358, D1S1656, D13S317, TH01, D19S433 and D22S1045) to 0.0025 (PentaE and FGA). The overall mutation rate across all loci was 0.0008 and the average mutation rate for the 23 loci was estimated to be 0.00078 per meiosis. The vast majority of mutations were single-step (88.4%) mutation and also include double-step (9.3%) and triple-step (2.3%) mutations. Paternal mutation rate was more common than maternal mutation rate with a ratio of 7.2:1. In addition, mutation rates indicated positive correlation (r = 0.633, p = 0.009) with the expected heterozygosity (H_e).

Evaluation of parentage testing accuracy of child trafficking cases: Combining the exclusion probability and likelihood ratio approaches

The Chinese government established a national anti-trafficking DNA database in 2009 to help reunite trafficked children with their families. The database collects DNA information from missing children's parents, trafficked and homeless children, then conducts parentage testing using 18 or more loci to find matched pairs. This article evaluates the matching accuracy of parentage testing in child-trafficking cases, under both Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and population substructure. Both one-parent and two-parent scenarios are considered, and mutations are taken into account. The number of random matches is first evaluated using exclusion probability (PE). It is found that there are a large number of single parent-child pairs that match at 18 loci, but the PE approach cannot tell which are the true positive ones. The likelihood ratio (LR) approach can help distinguish the true positive matches. So the second step is to obtain the true positive rate and false positive rate of matched pairs of single parent and child according to the LR approach. Based on the results of the two-step procedure, it is concluded that more than 18 loci should be used to ensure a correct match of single parent and child.

Identification of kinship and occupant status in Mongolian noble burials of the Yuan Dynasty through a multidisciplinary approach

The Yuan Dynasty (AD 1271-1368) was the first dynasty in Chinese history where a minority ethnic group (Mongols) ruled. Few cemeteries containing Mongolian nobles have been found owing to their tradition of keeping burial grounds secret and their lack of historical records. Archaeological excavations at the Shuzhuanglou site in the Hebei province of China led to the discovery of 13 skeletons in six separate tombs. The style of the artefacts and burials indicate the cemetery occupants were Mongol nobles. However, the origin, relationships and status of the chief occupant (M1m) are unclear. To shed light on the identity of the principal occupant and resolve the kin relationships between individuals, a multidisciplinary approach was adopted, combining archaeological information, stable isotope data and molecular genetic data. Analysis of autosomal, mitochondrial and Y-chromosomal DNA show that some of the occupants were related. The available evidence strongly suggests that the principal occupant may have been the Mongol noble Korguz. Our study demonstrates the power of a multidisciplinary approach in elucidating information about the inhabitants of ancient historical sites.

Evaluation of the allele-sharing approach, known as the IBS method, in kinship analysis

To infer relatedness from genetic data based on short tandem repeats, the exact method, in which shared allele frequencies are applied to relevant equations, has been conventionally used. An alternative approach is the IBS method that is based on the number of shared alleles between individuals. In the present study, the performance of the IBS method in pairwise kinship analysis was compared with the exact method using simulated data of 10,000 genotype pairs for 15 loci in the ABI Identifiler system. The likelihood ratio in allele-sharing of zero, one and two was calculated from joint probabilities based on allele frequencies of the Japanese population. Whereas the IBS method generally produced lower values of combined indices, smaller deviations of the distributions were evident. The threshold for identification of full siblings relative to non-relatives was comparable with that of the exact method, indicating that both inference powers were almost identical. The likelihood ratio in the IBS method depends on the heterozygosity at a locus, and heterozygosities of the 15 loci were consistent across various population groups, particularly in East Asians. The convenience of fixed LR values in the IBS method is beneficial for cases with uncertain allele frequencies and rare alleles.

Improving human forensics through advances in genetics, genomics and molecular biology

Forensic DNA profiling currently allows the identification of persons already known to investigating authorities. Recent advances have produced new types of genetic markers with the potential to overcome some important limitations of current DNA profiling methods. Moreover, other developments are enabling completely new kinds of forensically relevant information to be extracted from biological samples. These include new molecular approaches for finding individuals previously unknown to investigators, and new molecular methods to support links between forensic sample donors and criminal acts. Such advances in genetics, genomics and molecular biology are likely to improve human forensic case work in the near future.

Using DNA fingerprints to infer familial relationships within NHANES III households

Developing, targeting, and evaluating genomic strategies for population-based disease prevention require population-based data. In response to this urgent need, genotyping has been conducted within the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination (NHANES III), the nationally-representative household-interview health survey in the U.S. However, before these genetic analyses can occur, family relationships within households must be accurately ascertained. Unfortunately, reported family relationships within NHANES III households based on questionnaire data are incomplete and inconclusive with regards to actual biological relatedness of family members. We inferred family relationships within households using DNA fingerprints (Identifiler(R)) that contain the DNA loci used by law enforcement agencies for forensic identification of individuals. However, performance of these loci for relationship inference is not well understood. We evaluated two competing statistical methods for relationship inference on pairs of household members: an exact likelihood ratio relying on allele frequencies to an Identical By State (IBS) likelihood ratio that only requires matching alleles. We modified these methods to account for genotyping errors and population substructure. The two methods usually agree on the rankings of the most likely relationships. However, the IBS method underestimates the likelihood ratio by not accounting for the informativeness of matching rare alleles. The likelihood ratio is sensitive to estimates of population substructure, and parent-child relationships are sensitive to the specified genotyping error rate. These loci were unable to distinguish second-degree relationships and cousins from being unrelated. The genetic data is also useful for verifying reported relationships and identifying data quality issues. An important by-product is the first explicitly nationally-representative estimates of allele frequencies at these ubiquitous forensic loci.

Population stratification in Argentina strongly influences likelihood ratio estimates in paternity testing as revealed by a simulation-based approach

A simulation-based analysis was carried out to investigate the potential effects of population substructure in paternity testing in Argentina. The study was performed by evaluating paternity indexes (PI) calculated from different simulated pedigree scenarios and using 15 autosomal short tandem repeats (STRs) from eight Argentinean databases. The results show important statistically significant differences between PI values depending on the dataset employed. These differences are more dramatic when considering Native American versus urban populations. This study also indicates that the use of Fst to correct for the effect of population stratification on PI might be inappropriate because it cannot account for the particularities of single paternity cases.

Using allele sharing distance for detecting human population stratification

There is a long history of using allele sharing distance (ASD) and closely related metrics for population stratification analysis. However, the theory for this practical usage has not been reported. In this paper, we describe the theoretical background for using ASD on single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genetic data for human population stratification analysis. In showing the proof, we lay the ground work for a general distance-based method for classifying subpopulations using SNPs and ASD. We also show its relation to other closely related distance metrics using HapMap Phase I SNP data.

[Genetic structure of X-STR loci in Bai, Dai and Yi ethnic groups and their affinity with five major populations of China]

To determine the genetic polymorphism of three X-STR loci for Bai, Dai, Yi ethnic groups from Yunnan Province, DXS6804, DXS6799 and DXS7132 were genotyped by multiplex PCR and Genscan. Eighteen alleles and thirty-eight genotypes were detected in 89 Bai unrelated persons. The gene frequencies ranged from 0.0200 to 0.6400, and the geno-types frequencies ranged from 0.0256 to 0.3333. Seventeen alleles and twenty-four genotypes were detected in 100 Dai unrelated persons, with the gene frequencies ranging from 0.0135 to 0.7500 and the genotypes frequencies ranging from 0.0385 to 0.5769 respectively. There were 20 alleles and 35 genotypes detected in 88 Yi unrelated persons. The gene frequencies ranged from 0.0125 to 0.5875, and the genotypes frequencies ranged from 0.0250 to 0.3500. The genetic information demonstrated that the three loci are highly polymorphisms in Bai, Dai, Yi ethnic groups. Cluster analysis and phylogenic tree showed the genetic affinity between Bai, Dai, Yi, and Tibet populations.

Validation of software for calculating the likelihood ratio for parentage and kinship

Although the likelihood ratio is a well-known statistical technique, commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software products for its calculation are not sufficiently validated to suit general requirements for the competence of testing and calibration laboratories (EN/ISO/IEC 17025:2005 norm) per se. The software in question can be considered critical as it directly weighs the forensic evidence allowing judges to decide on guilt or innocence or to identify person or kin (i.e.: in mass fatalities). For these reasons, accredited laboratories shall validate likelihood ratio software in accordance with the above norm. To validate software for calculating the likelihood ratio in parentage/kinship scenarios I assessed available vendors, chose two programs (Paternity Index and familias) for testing, and finally validated them using tests derived from elaboration of the available guidelines for the field of forensics, biomedicine, and software engineering. MS Excel calculation using known likelihood ratio formulas or peer-reviewed results of difficult paternity cases were used as a reference. Using seven testing cases, it was found that both programs satisfied the requirements for basic paternity cases. However, only a combination of two software programs fulfills the criteria needed for our purpose in the whole spectrum of functions under validation with the exceptions of providing algebraic formulas in cases of mutation and/or silent allele.

[Genetic polymorphisms of ten X chromosome STR loci in Hunan Tujia population and their forensic evaluation]

Genomic DNA was extracted from whole blood of 198 unrelated health individuals of Tujia ethnic group from south China's Hunan Province. Genotyping and detection of PCR products were carried out on denaturing polycrylamide gel electrophoresis followed by silver staining. Allele frequencies and genotype frequencies were computed. Deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and differences of gene distribution were examined by SPSS 13.0. Fixation index, genetic polymorphism and indices of forensic application were calculated using Fstat and Powerstats, respectively. The results revealed that the frequencies of 65 alleles were distributed from 0.0048 to 0.6170. Among the ten X-STR loci, DXS6789, DXS6799 and HPRTB presented lower diversity and differentiation, while DXS7133 and DXS7423 showed lower value in forensic application. Results of multiple comparisons by loci showed that difference between German, Italian and Tujia population were the most dominant, and it suggested that great genetic differences did exist between Caucasian and Mongo-lian. In conclusion, DXS6804, DXS7132, DXS7130, DXS8378, DXS6789, DXS6799, DXS7424 and HPRTB had a good value in forensic identification, paternity testing of female and disease related study for Tujia population.

A maximum-likelihood method for the estimation of pairwise relatedness in structured populations

A maximum-likelihood estimator for pairwise relatedness is presented for the situation in which the individuals under consideration come from a large outbred subpopulation of the population for which allele frequencies are known. We demonstrate via simulations that a variety of commonly used estimators that do not take this kind of misspecification of allele frequencies into account will systematically overestimate the degree of relatedness between two individuals from a subpopulation. A maximum-likelihood estimator that includes F(ST) as a parameter is introduced with the goal of producing the relatedness estimates that would have been obtained if the subpopulation allele frequencies had been known. This estimator is shown to work quite well, even when the value of F(ST) is misspecified. Bootstrap confidence intervals are also examined and shown to exhibit close to nominal coverage when F(ST) is correctly specified.

On statistical analysis of forensic DNA: Theory, methods and computer programs

Statistics plays an important role in evaluating the evidential weight of forensic DNA. In this paper, general statistical principles for forensic DNA analysis are presented. We introduce the theory and methods for the statistical assessment in kinship determination and DNA mixture evaluation. In particular, analytical formulas for testing for biological relationship among three individuals and for assessing the DNA mixture evidence in the case of multiple subdivided ethnic groups are developed. Two user-friendly computer programs are demonstrated to exhibit their wide applicability in tackling with complex kinship/paternity and mixture problems. The EasyDNA program can solve a complicated paternity case in 1 min.

Discrimination of half-siblings when maternal genotypes are known

Given the DNA profiles of two individuals and one parent (say the mother) of each, we present likelihood ratios (LRs) comparing the hypothesis that they have the same father with the hypothesis of unrelated fathers. If the individuals have the same mother, the problem is to distinguish full- from half-siblings, otherwise we are comparing a half-sibling relationship with unrelated. We simulate STR profiles at up to 60 loci, based on allele proportions observed at 15 loci in three populations, and use them to approximate misclassification rates both for binary classification (e.g. "half-sib" versus "unrelated"), and when a third "cannot say" category is included. We find that reliable inferences in the absence of the mothers' profiles require many more STR loci than the 10-25 loci that are currently routinely available. However, profiling the two mothers conveys more discriminatory power than profiling the same number of additional loci in the individuals themselves. Our likelihood ratio formulas include a theta (or Fst) adjustment to allow for the individuals concerned to have recent shared ancestry (coancestry), relative to the population from which the allele frequency database is drawn. We illustrate that using an appropriate value of theta can reduce the average misclassification rate.

The expected performance of single nucleotide polymorphism loci in paternity testing

We discuss the utility of single nucleotide polymorphism loci for full trio and mother-unavailable paternity testing cases, in the presence of population substructure and relatedness of putative and actual fathers. We focus primarily on the expected number of loci required to gain specified probabilities of mismatches, and report the expected proportion of paternity indices greater than three threshold values for these loci.

It was one of my brothers

When DNA evidence is used to implicate a suspect, it may be of interest to know whether it is likely that the suspect's near relatives also share the suspect's DNA profile. In this study we discuss methods for evaluating the probability that at least one of a set of the suspect's full or half-siblings shares the suspect's DNA profile. We present three such methods: exact calculation, estimation via Monte Carlo simulations, and estimation by means of sandwiching the probability between an upper and a lower bound. We show that, under many circumstances, this upper bound itself provides an extremely quick and accurate estimate of the probability that at least one of the relatives matches the suspect's profile.

Calculating the exclusion probability and paternity index for X-chromosomal loci in the presence of substructure

There has been recent interest in the use of X-chromosomal loci for forensic and relatedness testing casework, with many authors developing new X-linked short tandem repeat (STR) loci suitable for forensic use. Here we present formulae for two key quantities in paternity testing, the average probability of exclusion and the paternity index, which are suitable for X-chromosomal loci in the presence of population substructure.

User-friendly programs for easy calculations in paternity testing and kinship determinations

Four computer programs are developed for easy calculations of likelihood ratios (LRs) for paternity testing and kinship determinations. The programs are constructed based on the concepts of Bayes Theorem, conditional probability and pedigree analysis. Computer enumeration is used for handling the calculations. The programs have wide applicability, and users can save and check the results easily. The programs employ the distinctive pull-down manual, making them very easy to use. In this paper, we explain the theory and describe various features of the software.

A Windows-based software for common paternity and sibling analyses

A new Windows-based freeware for kinship analysis from DNA data is presented. This software can be used to calculate likelihood ratios and probabilities of paternity in trio and motherless cases, as well as in cases when a parent is lacking but there are data from the grandparents. It can also be used to compute the probability of two subjects being full-brothers or half-brothers.

Testing for kinship in a subdivided population

The effect of population subdivision on the determination of kinship of any two persons is investigated in this paper. Expressions of the joint genotype probabilities and likelihood ratios on kinship testing are reported. Two real cases are analysed using the Hong Kong Chinese population data and the Spanish data. Various kinds of relationships are investigated for illustration.

Inferring relationships between pairs of individuals from locus heterozygosities

BACKGROUND

The traditional exact method for inferring relationships between individuals from genetic data is not easily applicable in all situations that may be encountered in several fields of applied genetics. This study describes an approach that gives affordable results and is easily applicable; it is based on the probabilities that two individuals share 0, 1 or both alleles at a locus identical by state.

RESULTS

We show that these probabilities (zi) depend on locus heterozygosity (H), and are scarcely affected by variation of the distribution of allele frequencies. This allows us to obtain empirical curves relating zi's to H for a series of common relationships, so that the likelihood ratio of a pair of relationships between any two individuals, given their genotypes at a locus, is a function of a single parameter, H. Application to large samples of mother-child and full-sib pairs shows that the statistical power of this method to infer the correct relationship is not much lower than the exact method. Analysis of a large database of STR data proves that locus heterozygosity does not vary significantly among Caucasian populations, apart from special cases, so that the likelihood ratio of the more common relationships between pairs of individuals may be obtained by looking at tabulated zi values.

CONCLUSIONS

A simple method is provided, which may be used by any scientist with the help of a calculator or a spreadsheet to compute the likelihood ratios of common alternative relationships between pairs of individuals.

Deduction of paternity index from DNA mixture

Determination of individual genotypes in DNA mixture remains a challenge in forensic science. Using an approach of mixture of distributions, this article provides formula for calculation of paternity index (PI) in cases where only tissue mixture of the mother and alleged father, the genotypes of the mother and child, but not that of the alleged father are available. The formula has been used to solve a real case using mother's vaginal tissue contaminated with semen from alleged father.