Variations climatiques et dengue: impacts directs et indirects

Spatio-temporal diffusion pattern and hotspot detection of dengue in Chachoengsao province, Thailand

In recent years, dengue has become a major international public health concern. In Thailand it is also an important concern as several dengue outbreaks were reported in last decade. This paper presents a GIS approach to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue epidemics. The major objective of this study was to examine spatial diffusion patterns and hotspot identification for reported dengue cases. Geospatial diffusion pattern of the 2007 dengue outbreak was investigated. Map of daily cases was generated for the 153 days of the outbreak. Epidemiological data from Chachoengsao province, Thailand (reported dengue cases for the years 1999-2007) was used for this study. To analyze the dynamic space-time pattern of dengue outbreaks, all cases were positioned in space at a village level. After a general statistical analysis (by gender and age group), data was subsequently analyzed for temporal patterns and correlation with climatic data (especially rainfall), spatial patterns and cluster analysis, and spatio-temporal patterns of hotspots during epidemics. The results revealed spatial diffusion patterns during the years 1999-2007 representing spatially clustered patterns with significant differences by village. Villages on the urban fringe reported higher incidences. The space and time of the cases showed outbreak movement and spread patterns that could be related to entomologic and epidemiologic factors. The hotspots showed the spatial trend of dengue diffusion. This study presents useful information related to the dengue outbreak patterns in space and time and may help public health departments to plan strategies to control the spread of disease. The methodology is general for space-time analysis and can be applied for other infectious diseases as well.

Monthly district level risk of dengue occurrences in Sakon Nakhon Province, Thailand

The paper deals with the incidence of the Dengue Virus Infection (DVI) in the 18 districts of Sakon Nakhon Province, Thailand, from January 2005 to December 2007. Using a statistical and autoregressive analysis to smooth incidence data, we have constructed yearly and monthly district level maps of the DVI distribution. It is found that the DVI incidence is very correlated with weather conditions and higher occurrences are observed in the three most populated districts Wanon Niwat, Sawang Daen Din and Mueang Sakon Nakhon, and the virus transmission period spans from mid-summer to mid-rainy seasons (from April to August). Employing a Generalized Linear Model (GLM), we found that the DVI incidences were related with current meteorological (monthly minimum temperature, past 2-month cumulated rainfall) and socio-economical (population of 0-4years old, per capita number of public small water wells, and proportion of villages with primary schools) covariates. And using the GLM under the climate change conditions (A1B scenario of IPCC), we found that the higher risk of DVI spreads from the three most populated districts to less populated ones, and the period of virus transmission increases from 5 to 9months to include part of winter, summer and rainy seasons (from March to November) during which 6%, 61% and 33% of districts will be at low, medium and high risk of DVI occurrences, respectively.

Current status of medical and veterinary entomology in France: endangered discipline or promising science?

Following alarming statements (French Senate, Académie des Sciences) on the present situation concerning entomology and systematics in France, the Conseil Général Vétérinaire designated one of us (D.C.) to carry out a survey on the status of medical and veterinary entomology (MVE) with respect to research orientations and university curricula. Around 100 participants, including scientists, teachers and several directors of research and educational bodies, were interviewed and filled in questionnaires for this survey. On the basis of the results, it was concluded that the deterioration of MVE in France is associated with: (1) the hasty reorganisation of training and research in the life sciences, leading to the disappearance of several disciplines. Hence, the postgraduate DEA degree in entomology was eliminated, and even the name 'entomology' no longer appears in teaching programmes or on research contracts; (2) France's withdrawal from action research programmes in developing countries. Although these programmes were efficient in controlling outbreaks of major endemic diseases, integrated pest and vector management programmes have been replaced by basic health care ('Health for everyone in 2000') and vaccination programmes; (3) the general shift from field to laboratory research, focused mainly on molecular mechanisms. The survey results confirmed generally acknowledged trends concerning many points and highlighted several specific problems, such as the disappearance of systematics experts. Several potential solutions are proposed.

Global change and human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases

Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health.

[Dengue fever: a review]

INTRODUCTION

Transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes all over the inter-tropical area, Dengue fever is the leading arboviral disease in humans. It is also an emerging disease.

CURRENT KNOWLEDGE AND KEY POINTS

Increasing morbidity-mortality, and geographical expansion are the drastic changes noted in the recent epidemiology of the disease. They are related to those occurring at the bio-climatic, socio-demographic and behavioural levels, which in turn may have led to enhanced viral circulation and virulence, and also vectorial resistance. The various clinical patterns (undifferentiated febrile episode of children, acute and algid classic form, the potentially fatal dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome, and the atypical forms) are reviewed, as well as the diagnostic methods, and the pathogenesis (sequential infections, facilitating antibodies, capillary leakage).

FUTURE PROSPECTS AND PROJECTS

Dengue fever is actually much more than a traveller's fever or an exotic curiosity. It presently threatens half the world's population, and remains a puzzling disease in many aspects, such as the virus-vector and host-virus relationships, and clinical expression variability. In this respect, dengue fever appears as a model of viral disease. The current molecular approach is expected to provide us with new insights into pathophysiology, more efficient tools for disease control, and also an efficient vaccine in the near future.