Therapeutic strategies for atrial fibrillation. The value of decision analysis

Estimation of Markov Chain Transition Probabilities and Rates from Fully and Partially Observed Data: Uncertainty Propagation, Evidence Synthesis, and Model Calibration

Markov transition models are frequently used to model disease progression. The authors show how the solution to Kolmogorov’s forward equations can be exploited to map between transition rates and probabilities from probability data in multistate models. They provide a uniform, Bayesian treatment of estimation and propagation of uncertainty of transition rates and probabilities when 1) observations are available on all transitions and exact time at risk in each state (fully observed data) and 2) observations are on initial state and final state after a fixed interval of time but not on the sequence of transitions (partially observed data). The authors show how underlying transition rates can be recovered from partially observed data using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in WinBUGS, and they suggest diagnostics to investigate inconsistencies between evidence from different starting states. An illustrative example for a 3-state model is given, which shows how the methods extend to more complex Markov models using the software WBDiff to compute solutions. Finally, the authors illustrate how to statistically combine data from multiple sources, including partially observed data at several follow-up times and also how to calibrate a Markov model to be consistent with data from one specific study.

Cost effectiveness of therapies for atrial fibrillation. A review

Atrial fibrillation is the most common supraventricular tachyarrhythmia encountered in clinical practice, affecting over 5% of persons over the age of 65 years. A common pathophysiological mechanism for arrhythmia development is atrial distention and fibrosis induced by hypertension, coronary artery disease or ventricular dysfunction. Less frequently, atrial fibrillation is caused by mitral stenosis or other provocative factors such as thyrotoxicosis, pericarditis or alcohol intoxication. Depending on the extent of associated cardiovascular disease, atrial fibrillation may produce haemodynamic compromise, or symptoms such as palpitations, fatigue, chest pain or dyspnoea. Arrhythmia-induced atrial stasis can precipitate clot formation and the potential for subsequent thromboembolism. Comprehensive management of atrial fibrillation requires a multifaceted approach directed at controlling symptoms, protecting the patient from ischaemic stroke or peripheral embolism and possible conversion to or maintenance of sinus rhythm. Numerous randomised trials have demonstrated the efficacy of warfarin--and less so aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid)--in reducing the risk of embolic events. Furthermore, therapeutic strategies exist that can favourably modify symptoms by restoring and maintaining sinus rhythm with cardioversion and antiarrhythmic prophylaxis. However, the risks and benefits of various treatments is highly dependent on patient-specific features, emphasising the need for an individualised approach. This article reviews the findings of cost-effectiveness studies published over the past decade that have evaluated different components of treatment strategies for atrial fibrillation. These studies demonstrate the economic attractiveness of acute management options, long term warfarin prophylaxis, telemetry-guided initiation of antiarrhythmic therapy, approaches to restore and maintain sinus rhythm, and the potential role of transoesophageal echocardiographic screening for atrial thrombus prior to pharmacological or electrical cardioversion. Further, we discuss the merits and limitations of the cost-effectiveness analyses in the context of overall treatment strategies. Finally, we identify areas that will require additional research to achieve the goal of effective and economically efficient management of atrial fibrillation.