Rohrbach BW, Buchanan BR, Drake JM, Andrews FM, Bain FT, Byars DT, Bernard WV, Furr MO, Paradis MR, Lawler J, Giguère S, Dunkel B. Use of a multivariable model to estimate the probability of discharge in hospitalized foals that are 7 days of age or less.
J Am Vet Med Assoc 2006;
228:1748-56. [PMID:
16740076 DOI:
10.2460/javma.228.11.1748]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
To create a mathematical model to assist in early prediction of the probability of discharge in hospitalized foals < or= 7 days old.
STUDY DESIGN
Prospective study.
ANIMALS
1,073 foals.
PROCEDURES
Medical records from 910 hospitalized foals < or = 7 days old for which outcome was recorded as died or discharged alive were reviewed. Thirty-four variables including historical information, physical examination findings, and laboratory results were examined for association with survival. Variables associated with being discharged alive were entered into a multivariable logistic regression model. Accuracy of the model was validated prospectively on data from 163 foals.
RESULTS
Factors in the final model included age group, ability to stand, presence of a suckle reflex, WBC count, serum creatinine concentration, and anion gap. Sensitivity and specificity of the model to predict live discharge were 92% and 74%, respectively, in the retrospective population and 90% and 46%, respectively, in the prospective population. Accuracy of an equine clinician's initial prediction of the foal being discharged alive was 83%, and accuracy of the model's prediction was 81%. Combining the clinician's prediction of probability of live discharge with that of the model significantly increased (median increase, 12%) the accuracy of the prediction for foals that were discharged and nonsignificantly decreased (median decrease, 9%) the accuracy of the predication for nonsurvivors.
CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE
Combining the clinician's initial predication of the probability of a foal being discharged alive with that of the model appeared to provide a more precise early estimate of the probability of live discharge for hospitalized foals.
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