Intermediate markers as surrogate endpoints in cancer research

Anesthesia and Circulating Tumor Cells in Primary Breast Cancer Patients

Background

The effect of anesthetic drugs on cancer outcomes remains unclear. This trial aimed to assess postoperative circulating tumor cell counts—an independent prognostic factor for breast cancer—to determine how anesthesia may indirectly affect prognosis. It was hypothesized that patients receiving sevoflurane would have higher postoperative tumor cell counts.

Methods

The parallel, randomized controlled trial was conducted in two centers in Switzerland. Patients aged 18 to 85 yr without metastases and scheduled for primary breast cancer surgery were eligible. The patients were randomly assigned to either sevoflurane or propofol anesthesia. The patients and outcome assessors were blinded. The primary outcome was circulating tumor cell counts over time, assessed at three time points postoperatively (0, 48, and 72 h) by the CellSearch assay. Secondary outcomes included maximal circulating tumor cells value, positivity (cutoff: at least 1 and at least 5 tumor cells/7.5 ml blood), and the association between natural killer cell activity and tumor cell counts. This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02005770).

Results

Between March 2014 and April 2018, 210 participants were enrolled, assigned to sevoflurane (n = 107) or propofol (n = 103) anesthesia, and eventually included in the analysis. Anesthesia type did not affect circulating tumor cell counts over time (median circulating tumor cell count [interquartile range]; for propofol: 1 [0 to 4] at 0 h, 1 [0 to 2] at 48 h, and 0 [0 to 1] at 72 h; and for sevoflurane: 1 [0 to 4] at 0 h, 0 [0 to 2] at 48 h, and 1 [0 to 2] at 72 h; rate ratio, 1.27 [95% CI, 0.95 to 1.71]; P = 0.103) or positivity. In one secondary analysis, administrating sevoflurane led to a significant increase in maximal tumor cell counts postoperatively. There was no association between natural killer cell activity and circulating tumor cell counts.

Conclusions

In this randomized controlled trial investigating the effect of anesthesia on an independent prognostic factor for breast cancer, there was no difference between sevoflurane and propofol with respect to circulating tumor cell counts over time.

Editor’s Perspective

What We Already Know about This Topic

What This Article Tells Us That Is New

Meta-analysis for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints in cancer clinical trials

The identification and validation of putative surrogate endpoints in oncology is a great challenge to medical investigators, statisticians, and regulators. A putative surrogate endpoint must be validated at both individual-level and trial-level before it can be used to replace the clinical endpoint in a future clinical trial. Recently, meta-analytic methods for evaluating potential surrogates have become widely accepted in cancer clinical trials. In this review, after addressing multiple complications and general issues surrounding surrogate endpoints, we review various proposed and adopted meta-analytic methodologies pertaining to the application of these methods to oncology clinical trials with different tumor types. In oncology, several applications have successfully identified useful surrogates. For example, disease-free survival and progression-free survival have been validated through meta-analyses as acceptable surrogates for overall survival in adjuvant colon cancer and advanced colorectal cancer, respectively. We also discuss several limitations of surrogate endpoints, including the critical issues that the extrapolation of the validity of a surrogate is always context-dependent and that such extrapolation should be exercised with caution.

Aberrant crypt foci in colon cancer epidemiology

Colonic carcinogenesis is characterized by progressive accumulations of genetic and epigenetic derangements. These molecular events are accompanied by histological changes that progress from mild cryptal architectural abnormalities in small adenomas to eventual invasive cancers. The transition steps from normal colonic epithelium to small adenomas are little understood. In experimental models of colonic carcinogenesis aberrant crypt foci (ACF), collections of abnormal appearing colonic crypts, are the earliest detectable abnormality and precede adenomas. Whether in fact ACF are precursors of colon cancer, however, remains controversial. Recent advances in magnification chromoendoscopy now allow these lesions to be identified in vivo and their natural history ascertained. While increasing lines of evidence suggest that dysplastic ACF harbor a malignant potential, there are few prospective studies to confirm causal relationships and supporting epidemiological studies are scarce. It would be very useful, for example, to clarify the relationship of ACF incidence to established risks for colon cancer, including age, smoking, sedentary lifestyle, and Western diets. In experimental animal models, carcinogens dose-dependently increase ACF, whereas most chemopreventive agents reduce ACF incidence or growth. In humans, however, few agents have been validated to be chemopreventive of colon cancer. It remains unproven, therefore, whether human ACF could be used as reliable surrogate markers of efficacy of chemopreventive agents. If these lesions could be used as reliable biomarkers of colon cancer risk and their reductions as predictors of effective chemopreventive agents, metrics to quantify ACF could greatly facilitate the study of colonic carcinogenesis and chemoprevention.

Trends in the use and role of biomarkers in phase I oncology trials

PURPOSE

There has been interest in using biomarkers that aid the evaluation of new anticancer agents. We evaluated trends in the use of biomarkers and their contribution to the main goals of phase I trials.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

We did a systematic review of abstracts submitted to the American Society of Clinical Oncology annual meeting from 1991 to 2002 and the publications related to these abstracts. We analyzed the use of biomarkers and their contribution to published phase I trials.

RESULTS

Twenty percent of American Society of Clinical Oncology phase I abstracts (503 of 2458) from 1991 to 2002 included biomarkers. This proportion increased over time (14% in 1991 compared with 26% in 2002; P < 0.02). Independent predictors of the use of biomarkers included National Cancer Institute sponsorship, submission in the time period of 1999 to 2002, adult population, and drug family (biological agents). Biomarkers supported dose selection for phase II studies in 11 of 87 of the trials (13%) emanating from these abstracts. However, the primary determinants of phase II dose and schedule were toxicity and/or efficacy in all but one of these 87 trials (1%). Biomarker studies provided evidence supporting the proposed mechanism of action in 34 of 87 of the published trials (39%).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of biomarkers in phase I trials has increased over the period from 1991 to 2002. To date, biomarker utilization has made a limited and primarily supportive contribution to dose selection, the primary end point of phase I studies. Additional studies are needed to determine what type of biomarker information is most valuable to evaluate in phase I trials.

The polyp prevention trial continued follow-up study: no effect of a low-fat, high-fiber, high-fruit, and -vegetable diet on adenoma recurrence eight years after randomization

The Polyp Prevention Trial (PPT) was a multicenter randomized clinical trial to evaluate the effects of a high-fiber (18 g/1,000 kcal), high-fruit and -vegetable (3.5 servings/1,000 kcal), and low-fat (20% of total energy) diet on the recurrence of adenomatous polyps in the large bowel over a period of 4 years. Although intervention participants reported a significantly reduced intake of dietary fat, and increased fiber, fruit, and vegetable intakes, their risk of recurrent adenomas was not significantly different from that of the controls. Since the PPT intervention lasted only 4 years, it is possible that participants need to be followed for a longer period of time before treatment differences in adenoma recurrence emerge, particularly if diet affects early events in the neoplastic process. The PPT-Continued Follow-up Study (PPT-CFS) was a post-intervention observation of PPT participants for an additional 4 years from the completion of the trial. Of the 1,905 PPT participants, 1,192 consented to participate in the PPT-CFS and confirmed colonoscopy reports were obtained on 801 participants. The mean time between the main trial end point colonoscopy and the first colonoscopy in the PPT-CFS was 3.94 years (intervention group) and 3.87 years (control group). The baseline characteristics of 405 intervention participants and 396 control participants in the PPT-CFS were quite similar. Even though the intervention group participants increased their fat intake and decreased their intakes of fiber, fruits, and vegetables during the PPT-CFS, they did not go back to their prerandomization baseline diet (P < 0.001 from paired t tests) and intake for each of the three dietary goals was still significantly different from that in the controls during the PPT-CFS (P < 0.001 from t tests). As the CFS participants are a subset of the people in the PPT study, the nonparticipants might not be missing completely at random. Therefore, a multiple imputation method was used to adjust for potential selection bias. The relative risk (95% confidence intervals) of recurrent adenoma in the intervention group compared with the control group was 0.98 (0.88-1.09). There were no significant intervention-control group differences in the relative risk for recurrence of an advanced adenoma (1.06; 0.81-1.39) or multiple adenomas (0.92; 0.77-1.10). We also used a multiple imputation method to examine the cumulative recurrence of adenomas through the end of the PPT-CFS: the intervention-control relative risk (95% confidence intervals) for any adenoma recurrence was 1.04 (0.98-1.09). This study failed to show any effect of a low-fat, high-fiber, high-fruit and -vegetable eating pattern on adenoma recurrence even with 8 years of follow-up. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2007;16(9):1745-52).

The Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema: a review of the biomarker-surrogate literature and a proposal for a criterion-based, quantitative, multidimensional hierarchical levels of evidence schema for evaluating the status of biomarkers as surrogate endpoints

There are clear advantages to using biomarkers and surrogate endpoints, but concerns about clinical and statistical validity and systematic methods to evaluate these aspects hinder their efficient application. Section 2 is a systematic, historical review of the biomarker-surrogate endpoint literature with special reference to the nomenclature, the systems of classification and statistical methods developed for their evaluation. In Section 3 an explicit, criterion-based, quantitative, multidimensional hierarchical levels of evidence schema — Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema — is proposed to evaluate and co-ordinate the multiple dimensions (biological, epidemiological, statistical, clinical trial and risk-benefit evidence) of the biomarker clinical endpoint relationships. The schema systematically evaluates and ranks the surrogacy status of biomarkers and surrogate endpoints using defined levels of evidence. The schema incorporates the three independent domains: Study Design, Target Outcome and Statistical Evaluation. Each domain has items ranked from zero to five. An additional category called Penalties incorporates additional considerations of biological plausibility, risk-benefit and generalizability. The total score (0—15) determines the level of evidence, with Level 1 the strongest and Level 5 the weakest. The term `surrogate' is restricted to markers attaining Levels 1 or 2 only. Surrogacy status of markers can then be directly compared within and across different areas of medicine to guide individual, trial-based or drug-development decisions. This schema would facilitate communication between clinical, researcher, regulatory, industry and consumer participants necessary for evaluation of the biomarker-surrogate-clinical endpoint relationship in their different settings.

C-reactive protein levels and subsequent cancer outcomes: results from a prospective cohort study

Chronic inflammation has been implicated in the pathogenesis of many common chronic diseases, including cancer. C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration is a non-specific serum marker of inflammation, and higher levels have been observed among individuals who go on to develop cardiovascular disease. Nested case-control studies were conducted within the CLUE II study, a community-based cohort, to examine the association between CRP concentrations and subsequent development of colorectal or prostate cancer. CRP concentrations were higher among individuals who went on to develop colon cancer, but not rectal or prostate cancer, compared with controls. The association between CRP concentrations and development of colon cancer is consistent with other evidence suggesting a role of inflammation and cancer. Preventive interventions that decrease systemic chronic inflammation have the potential to reduce certain types of cancer as well as cardiovascular disease. However, the potential benefits of anti-inflammatory chemopreventive agents must be weighed against their adverse effects before widespread use is recommended.

A comprehensive natural history model of HPV infection and cervical cancer to estimate the clinical impact of a prophylactic HPV-16/18 vaccine

The object of our study is to project the impact of a prophylactic vaccine against persistent human papillomavirus (HPV)-16/18 infection on age-specific incidence of invasive cervical cancer. We developed a computer-based mathematical model of the natural history of cervical carcinogenesis to incorporate the underlying type-specific HPV distribution within precancerous lesions and invasive cancer. After defining plausible ranges for each parameter based on a comprehensive literature review, the model was calibrated to the best available population-based data. We projected the age-specific reduction in cervical cancer that would occur with a vaccine that reduced the probability of acquiring persistent infection with HPV 16/18, and explored the impact of alternative assumptions about vaccine efficacy and coverage, waning immunity and competing risks associated with non-16/18 HPV types in vaccinated women. The model predicted a peak age-specific cancer incidence of 90 per 100,000 in the 6th decade, a lifetime cancer risk of 3.7% and a reproducible representation of type-specific HPV within low and high-grade cervical precancerous lesions and cervical cancer. A vaccine that prevented 98% of persistent HPV 16/18 was associated with an approximate equivalent reduction in 16/18-associated cancer and a 51% reduction in total cervical cancer; the effect on total cancer was attenuated due to the competing risks associated with other oncogenic non-16/18 types. A vaccine that prevented 75% of persistent HPV 16/18 was associated with a 70% to 83% reduction in HPV-16/18 cancer cases. Similar effects were observed with high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) although the impact of vaccination on the overall prevalence of HPV and low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) was minimal. In conclusion, a prophylactic vaccine that prevents persistent HPV-16/18 infection can be expected to significantly reduce HPV-16/18-associated LSIL, HSIL and cervical cancer. The impact on overall prevalence of HPV or LSIL, however, may be minimal. Based on the relative importance of different parameters in the model, several priorities for future research were identified. These include a better understanding of the heterogeneity of vaccine response, the effect of type-specific vaccination on other HPV types and the degree to which vaccination effect persists over time.

Surrogate endpoints in Parkinson's disease research

Biomarkers are important tools in understanding the underlying mechanisms of causation, progression, and treatment effects in Parkinson's disease (PD). In addition, these biomarkers may be utilized as surrogate endpoints that, when used appropriately, can lead to important advances in therapeutics in a timely and cost-effective manner. This paper outlines the definition, role, validity process, and risks associated with surrogate endpoints. The use of biomarkers in recent PD clinical trials is discussed and potential shortcomings and unanswered questions related to interpreting these outcomes are reviewed. Finally, the significant challenges that lie ahead for validating and interpreting surrogate endpoints in PD are addressed.

Diet and cancer prevention

Research from several sources provides strong evidence that vegetables, fruits, and whole grains, dietary fibre, certain micronutrients, some fatty acids and physical activity protect against some cancers. In contrast, other factors, such as obesity, alcohol, some fatty acids and food preparation methods may increase risks. Unravelling the multitude of plausible mechanisms for the effects of dietary factors on cancer risk will likely necessitate that nutrition research moves beyond traditional epidemiological and metabolic studies. Nutritional sciences must build on recent advances in molecular biology and genetics to move the discipline from being largely 'observational' to focusing on 'cause and effect'. Such basic research is fundamental to cancer prevention strategies that incorporate effective dietary interventions for target populations.