Organ allocation: model for end-stage liver disease, Child-Turcotte-Pugh, Mayo risk score, or something else

Effects of adjuvant huaier granule therapy on survival rate of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Objective: Clinical trials have reported that Huaier granule inhibits the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after resection. However, its efficacy in patients at different clinical stages of HCC remains unknown. We investigated the effects of Huaier granule on the 3-year overall survival (OS) rate of patients at different clinical stages. Design: This cohort study included 826 patients with HCC, screened between January 2015 and December 2019. The patients were divided into Huaier (n = 174) and control groups (n = 652), and the 3-year OS rates were compared between the two groups. To eliminate bias caused by confounding factors, propensity score matching (PSM) was performed. We used the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate OS rate and tested the difference using the log-rank test. Results: Multivariable regression analysis revealed that Huaier therapy was an independent protective factor for 3-year survival rate. After PSM (1:2), the Huaier and control groups comprised 170 and 340 patients, respectively. The 3-year OS rate was remarkably higher in the Huaier group than in the control group (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.36; 95% confidence interval: 0.26-0.49; p < 0.001). The aHR for Huaier use for 3-12, 12-24, and >24 months was 0.48, 0.23, and 0.16, respectively, indicating a dose-response pattern. For the 3-12-, 12-24-, and >24-month groups, the 3-year OS rate was 54.1%, 68.6%, and 90.4%, respectively. Multivariate stratified analysis confirmed that the mortality risk in Huaier users was lower than that in non-Huaier users in most subgroups. Conclusion: Adjuvant Huaier therapy improved the OS rate in patients with HCC. However, these findings require further verification through prospective clinical studies.

Association between probiotic therapy and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis

Objective

Probiotics may offer cancer-prevention benefits, based on experimental investigation results. This study aimed to determine the potential association between probiotics and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis (HBC) receiving antiviral therapy.

Design

This retrospective study included 1267 patients with HBC treated with entecavir or tenofovir between January 2013 and December 2017. The risk of developing HCC was compared between two cohorts of 449 probiotic users (taking a cumulative defined daily doses [cDDD] of ≥ 28) and 818 non-probiotic users (< 28 cDDD). To eliminate the bias caused by confounding factors, propensity score matching (PSM) was used.

Results

On multivariate regression analysis, probiotic consumption was an independent protective factor for HCC occurrence. After PSM, the incidence of HCC was significantly lower in the probiotic users than that in the nonusers (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.70, 95% confidence interval: 0.59-0.83, P < 0.001). The aHRs for probiotics with 28-89, 90-180, and >180 cDDD were 0.58, 0.28, and 0.12, respectively, indicating a dose-response pattern. In 28-89, 90-180, and >180 cDDD, the 3-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 8.7%, 4.7%, and 3.0%, respectively. A multivariate stratified analysis confirmed that the administration of probiotics could help patients.

Conclusion

Adjuvant probiotic therapy may reduce the risk of HCC in patients receiving antiviral medication for HBC. However, further clinical research is required to confirm these findings.

Development of a nomogram to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis on antivirals

Objective

Patients with compensated hepatitis B-related cirrhosis receiving antivirals are at the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the incidence of HCC in patients with hepatitis-B related cirrhosis.

Design

A total of 632 patients with compensated hepatitis-B related cirrhosis treated with entecavir or tenofovir between August 2010 and July 2018 were enrolled. Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for HCC and a nomogram was developed using these factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analyses were used to evaluate the nomogram performance. The results were validated in an external cohort (n = 324).

Results

In the multivariate analysis, age per 10 years, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio > 1.6, and platelet count < 86×10⁹/L were independent predictors of HCC occurrence. A nomogram was developed to predict HCC risk using these three factors (ranging from 0 to 20). The nomogram showed better performance (AUC: 0.83) than that of the established models (all P < 0.05). The 3-year cumulative HCC incidences in the low- (scores < 4), medium- (4-10), and high-risk (> 10) subgroups were 0.7%, 4.3%, and 17.7%, respectively, in the derivation cohort, and 1.2%, 3.9%, and 17.8%, respectively, in the validation cohort.

Conclusion

The nomogram showed good discrimination and calibration in estimating HCC risk in patients with hepatitis-B related cirrhosis on antivirals. High-risk patients with a score > 10 points require close surveillance.

A dynamic nomogram to predict transplant-free mortality in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis and overt hepatic encephalopathy

BACKGROUND

Overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) is a serious complication of liver disease. We aimed to develop a dynamic nomogram for estimating the probability of 30-day transplant-free mortality in patients with OHE and hepatitis B-related cirrhosis (HBC).

METHODS

We identified 402 patients with OHE and HBC at the Beijing Ditan Hospital between January 2011 and July 2016. Independent risk factors were determined using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. A dynamic nomogram was established to predict the probability of 30-day transplant-free mortality. The discrimination and clinical usefulness of the nomogram were estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) and calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. A prospective cohort of 208 patients was enrolled for validation.

RESULTS

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were independently associated with the 30-day transplant-free mortality. The AUC values of the nomogram were 0.881 and 0.879 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively, and the discrimination ability was superior to that of the established models. The calibration plot fitted the predicted survival and observed probabilities well. The incidence of mortality was 2.0% (3/151) in patients with MELD scores < 23 and NLR < 4, and 55.4% (41/92) in those with MELD scores ≥ 23 and NLR ≥ 4.

CONCLUSIONS

The dynamic nomogram can predict the risk of 30-day transplant-free mortality in patients with OHE and HBC. Patients with MELD scores ≥ 23 and NLR ≥ 4 have a high mortality rate and should be admitted to intensive care.

Prediction of Survival After Partial Hepatectomy Using a Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model of Indocyanine Green Liver Function Tests

The evaluation of hepatic function and functional capacity of the liver are essential tasks in hepatology as well as in hepatobiliary surgery. Indocyanine green (ICG) is a widely applied test compound that is used in clinical routine to evaluate hepatic function. Important questions for the functional evaluation with ICG in the context of hepatectomy are how liver disease such as cirrhosis alters ICG elimination, and if postoperative survival can be predicted from preoperative ICG measurements. Within this work a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of ICG was developed and applied to the prediction of the effects of a liver resection under various degrees of cirrhosis. For the parametrization of the computational model and validation of model predictions a database of ICG pharmacokinetic data was established. The model was applied (i) to study the effect of liver cirrhosis and liver resection on ICG pharmacokinetics; and (ii) to evaluate the model-based prediction of postoperative ICG-R15 (retention ratio 15 min after administration) as a measure for postoperative outcome. Key results are the accurate prediction of changes in ICG pharmacokinetics caused by liver cirrhosis and postoperative changes of ICG-elimination after liver resection, as validated with a wide range of data sets. Based on the PBPK model, individual survival after liver resection could be classified, demonstrating its potential value as a clinical tool.

Development and Validation of a Novel Risk Prediction Model Using Recursive Feature Elimination Algorithm for Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients With Severe Acute Exacerbation

Background: Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) with severe acute exacerbation (SAE) are at a progression stage of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) but uniform models for predicting ACLF occurrence are lacking. We aimed to present a risk prediction model to early identify the patients at a high risk of ACLF and predict the survival of the patient. Methods: We selected the best variable combination using a novel recursive feature elimination algorithm to develop and validate a classification regression model and also an online application on a cloud server from the training cohort with a total of 342 patients with CHB with SAE and two external cohorts with a sample size of 96 and 65 patients, respectively. Findings: An excellent prediction model called the PATA model including four predictors, prothrombin time (PT), age, total bilirubin (Tbil), and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) could achieve an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.959 (95% CI 0.941-0.977) in the development set, and AUC of 0.932 (95% CI 0.876-0.987) and 0.905 (95% CI 0.826-0.984) in the two external validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curve for risk prediction probability of ACLF showed optimal agreement between prediction by PATA model and actual observation. After predictive stratification into different risk groups, the C-index of predictive 90-days mortality was 0.720 (0.675-0.765) for the PATA model, 0.549 (0.506-0.592) for the end-stage liver disease score model, and 0.648 (0.581-0.715) for Child-Turcotte-Pugh scoring system. Interpretation: The highlypredictive risk model and easy-to-use online application can accurately predict the risk of ACLF with a poor prognosis. They may facilitate risk communication and guidetherapeutic options.

Dependence of platelet function on underlying liver disease in orthotopic liver transplantation

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of the present study was to explore the platelet function during the perioperative period of orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) due to the underlying liver disease.

METHODS

The blood coagulation parameters, platelet surface markers and the determination of platelet aggregation were analyzed in 34 patients who underwent OLT. Blood samples were drawn preoperatively, anhepatic, 10 min and 1 hour after reperfusion, 1 day, 3 and 7 days postoperatively. Conventional coagulation screens, thrombopoietin (TPO) serum levels, P-selectin, GPIIb/IIIa and GPIb binding sites on the surface of platelets as evaluated by flow cytometry and platelet aggregation response were measured.

RESULTS

Coagulation factors, maximum aggregation and rate of aggregation were significantly different before transplantation due to the underlying liver disease. Further we found a markedly depressed GPIIb/IIIa and P-selectin expression and a reduced rate of aggregation in all patients throughout the study. In contrast maximum aggregation of platelets was restored on the third day after reperfusion without intergroup differences and almost comparable to healthy controls. An inverse correlation was found between peripheral platelet count pre-transplantation and peak TPO concentrations one weak post-transplantation.

CONCLUSIONS

In the entire process of OLT, coagulation factors, maximum aggregation and rate of platelet aggregation depend on the surgical phases during transplantation and on the underlying liver disease. The data obtained in this study might contribute to a better understanding of the pathophysiology and assessment of bleeding risk in OLT.

Pretransplant predictors of posttransplant adherence and clinical outcome: an evidence base for pretransplant psychosocial screening

INTRODUCTION

There is growing awareness, yet scant prospective evidence that pretransplant (TX) psychosocial factors may predict post-TX outcome. We examined which pre-TX psychosocial factors predict post-TX nonadherence with immunosuppression (NA) and clinical outcomes in heart, liver, and lung TX.

METHODOLOGY

We prospectively followed 141 patients (28 heart, 61 liver, and 52 lung) from pre-TX until 1 year post-TX. Multivariable analyses determined which pre-TX factors (i.e., anxiety, depression, personality traits, social support, adherence with medication, and smoking status) predict poor post-TX outcome (i.e., NA, late acute rejection, graft loss, and resource utilization), controlling for medical predictors of poor outcome.

RESULTS

Pre-TX self-reported medication nonadherence (odds ratio [OR]=7.9), lower received social support (OR=0.9), a higher education (OR=2.7), and lower "conscientiousness" (OR=0.8) were independent predictors of post-TX NA. Not living in a stable relationship predicted graft loss (OR=4.9). Pre-TX medication NA was the only predictor for presence of late acute rejection (OR=4.4). No other pre-TX predictors for poor outcome could be found.

CONCLUSION

This is the first prospective study demonstrating that selected pre-TX psychosocial factors predict post-TX NA and poor clinical outcome, implying that pre-TX screening should include this set of factors in addition to traditional medical criteria.

Stem cell mobilization and collection in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Bone marrow-derived stem cells (BMSC) and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) have been proved to contribute to tissue regeneration after liver injury.

AIMS

To test the safety of G-CSF and define the exact dose capable of mobilizing BMSC in the majority of patients with liver cirrhosis; and to assess the feasibility of leukapheresis to collect BMSC from peripheral blood.

METHODS

In this study, we treated 18 patients affected by liver cirrhosis with increasing doses of G-CSF to mobilize CD34(+) and CD133(+) BMSC into the peripheral blood.

RESULTS

The dose-finding phase demonstrated that 15 microg/kg/day of G-CSF is the optimal dose to mobilize both CD34(+) and CD133(+) stem cells. Circulating BMSC were collected by a single step leukapheresis in three patients and the mean number of CD34(+) and CD133(+) cells cryopreserved was 1.3 +/- 0.7 and 1.2 +/- 0.5 x 10(6)/kg, respectively. No severe adverse events were observed during the drug administration and stem cell collection. Noteworthy is, none of the patients showed a significant modification of liver function.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates that G-CSF administration and BMSC collection from the peripheral blood is possible and safe in patients with liver cirrhosis. The optimal dose to mobilize BMSC in cirrhotics is 15 microg/kg/day. At this dose, G-CSF does not seem to modify the residual liver function in cirrhotic patients.

Review article: the assessment of liver function using breath tests

BACKGROUND

Hepatologists have long sought to develop a test for assessing liver function, but this aim has been stalled by the complexity of the liver and its diverse functions. Results of metabolic tests, including breath tests, correlate with clinical and histological parameters of patients with liver disorders; however, these tests tend to be cumbersome and impractical for everyday use. The recent development of a real-time, point-of-care liver function breath test has made it straightforward to assess the metabolic function of the liver.

AIM

To review the available data on the use of breath tests for assessing liver reserve in various conditions and their application in various clinical hepatology settings.

RESULTS

The (13)C-methacetin breath test enables accurate follow-up of patients with acute or chronic liver damage, where overall hepatic function is significantly suppressed by known causes of liver disorders, including acute, sub-acute or chronic conditions. The metabolic breath test can detect both gradual and spontaneous improvements in liver function and the effects of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Breath testing that provides continuous quantification of methacetin metabolism may be a sensitive tool for the diagnosis and follow-up of patients with liver disorders.

New insights into the coagulopathy of liver disease and liver transplantation

The liver is an essential player in the pathway of coagulation in both primary and secondary haemostasis. Only von Willebrand factor is not synthetised by the liver, thus liver failure is associated with impairment of coagulation. However, recently it has been shown that the delicate balance between pro and antithrombotic factors synthetised by the liver might be reset to a lower level in patients with chronic liver disease. Therefore, these patients might not be really anticoagulated in stable condition and bleeding may be caused only when additional factors, such as infections, supervene. Portal hypertension plays an important role in coagulopathy in liver disease, reducing the number of circulating platelets, but platelet function and secretion of thrombopoietin have been also shown to be impaired in patients with liver disease. Vitamin K deficiency may coexist, so that abnormal clotting factors are produced due to lack of gamma carboxylation. Moreover during liver failure, there is a reduced capacity to clear activated haemostatic proteins and protein inhibitor complexes from the circulation. Usually therapy for coagulation disorders in liver disease is needed only during bleeding or before invasive procedures. When end stage liver disease occurs, liver transplantation is the only treatment available, which can restore normal haemostasis, and correct genetic clotting defects, such as haemophilia or factor V Leiden mutation. During liver transplantation haemorrage may occur due to the pre-existing hypocoagulable state, the collateral circulation caused by portal hypertension and increased fibrinolysis which occurs during this surgery.

Molecular adsorbent recirculating system (MARS) application in liver failure: clinical and hemodepurative results in 22 patients

PURPOSE

Acute liver failure (ALF) and acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) still show a poor prognosis. MARS was used in 22 patients with ALF or ACLF to prolong patient survival for liver function recovery or as a bridge to transplantation.

DESIGN

Evaluation of depurative efficiency, biocompatibility, hemodynamics, encephalopathy (HE) and clinical outcome.

PROCEDURES

During 71 five-hour sessions we evaluated (0', 60', 120', 180', 240', 300'): bilirubin, ammonia, cholic acid (CCA), chenodeoxycholic acid (CCDCA), leukocytes, platelets, hemoglobin and mean arterial pressure (MAP). Serum creatinine, electrolytes, cardiac output, cardiac index (bioimpedence) and HE (West Haven Criteria score) were evaluated at 0' and 300'. STATISTICAL METHODS AND OUTCOME MEASURES: Student's t-test for pre- vs. end-session values was used. For bilirubin and ammonia the correlation test was made between pre- and end-session values and between pre-session values and removal rates (RRS).

MAIN FINDINGS

Survival was 90.9% at 7 days, 40.9% at 30 days. Pre- vs. end-session: bilirubin from 37.2 +/- 12.5 mg/dL to 24.9 +/- 8.9 mg/dL (p < 0.01), ammonia from 88.0 +/- 60.4 micromol/L to 43.6 +/- 32.9 micromol/L (p < 0.01), CCA from 42.8 +/- 21.0 micromol/L 18.2 +/- 9.8 micromol/L (p < 0.01), CCDCA from 26.3 +/- 6.3 micromol/L to 15.7+/-7.6 micromol/L (p<0.01). The correlation test between pre-session values of bilirubin and ammonia vs. RR S was respectively 0.32 (p = 0.01) and 0.30 (p = 0.04). Leukocytes, platelets and hemoglobin remained stable. MAP increased from 82.0 +/- 12.0 mmHg to 87.0 +/- 13.0 mmHg (p < 0.05), West Haven Criteria score decreased from 2.7 +/- 0.7 to 0.7 +/- 0.7 (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

MARS treatment led in all patients to an improvement of clinical, hemodynamic and neurological conditions, with significant reduction in the hepatic toxins blood level. Treatment biocompatibility and tolerance were satisfactory.

Cardiac Surgery in Children With End-Stage Liver Disease Awaiting Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Cardiac repair for congenital heart disease in children awaiting liver transplantation presents unique therapeutic challenges and dilemmas. We tested the hypothesis that operations in these children requiring cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) were not associated with prohibitive morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

Over the last 10 years (1994-2004), five infants were identified in our database with end-stage liver disease and awaiting liver transplantation that required cardiac surgery. Primary end point for the study was mortality. Secondary end points included morbidity and time to liver transplantation. The new pediatric end-stage liver disease (PELD) model was used to score liver disease severity.

RESULTS

Three boys and two girls with mean age of 8.6 months (range, 1.5-21 months) and mean PELD of 18.0 (range, 10-29) required CPB for repair. The only early mortality in the series occurred after cardiac arrest during creation of a central shunt. The child expired two days later despite extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support. The patient had important myocardial hypertrophy. All other patients survived and underwent successful liver transplantation.

CONCLUSIONS

Children with significant congenital heart disease awaiting liver transplantation can undergo safe cardiac repair with judicious perioperative support thereby reducing the risks of subsequent liver transplantation.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) predicts nontransplant surgical mortality in patients with cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

We sought to determine the ability of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score to predict 30-day postoperative mortality for patients with cirrhosis undergoing nontransplant surgical procedures.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

The Child-Pugh class historically has been used by clinicians to assist in management decisions involving patients with cirrhosis. However, this classification scheme has a number of limitations. Recently, MELD was introduced. It has been shown to be highly predictive of mortality in a variety of clinical scenarios.

METHODS

Adult patients with a diagnosis of cirrhosis undergoing nontransplant surgical procedures between January 1, 1996, and January 1, 2002, at a single center were analyzed. The preoperative MELD score was calculated for all patients, and the MELD's performance in predicting 30-day mortality was determined using multivariate regression techniques.

RESULTS

A total of 140 surgical procedures were identified and analyzed. The 30-day mortality rate was 16.4%. The mean admission MELD score for the patients who died (23.3, 95% confidence interval 19.6-27.0) was significantly different from those patients surviving beyond 30 days (16.9, 15.6-18.2), P = 0.0003. The c-statistic for MELD score predicting 30-day mortality was 0.72. Further subgroup analysis of 67 intra-abdominal surgeries showed an in-hospital mortality of 23.9%. The mean MELD score for patients dying (24.8, 20.4-29.3) was significantly different from survivors (16.2, 14.2-18.2), P = 0.0001. The c-statistic for this subgroup was 0.80.

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD score, as an objective scale of disease severity in patients with cirrhosis, shows promise as being a useful preoperative predictor of surgical mortality risk.

Serum sodium predicts mortality in patients listed for liver transplantation

With the implementation of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), refractory ascites, a known predictor of mortality in cirrhosis, was removed as a criterion for liver allocation. Because ascites is associated with low serum sodium, we evaluated serum sodium as an independent predictor of mortality in patients with cirrhosis who were listed for liver transplantation and whether the addition of serum sodium to MELD was superior to MELD alone. This is a single-center retrospective cohort of all adult patients with cirrhosis listed for transplantation from February 27, 2002, to December 26, 2003. Listing laboratories were those nearest the listing date +/-2 months. Of the 513 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 341 were still listed, while 172 were removed from the list (105 for transplantation, 56 for death, 11 for other reasons). The median serum sodium and MELD scores were 137 mEq/L (range, 110-155) and 15 (range, 6-51), respectively, at listing. Median follow-up was 201 (range, 1-662) days. The risk of death with serum sodium <126 mEq/L at listing or while listed was increased, with hazard ratios of 7.8 (P < .001) and 6.3 (P < .001), respectively, and the association was independent of MELD. The c-statistics of receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting mortality at 3 months based upon listing MELD with and without listing serum sodium were 0.883 and 0.897, respectively, and at 6 months were 0.871 and 0.905, respectively. In conclusion, serum sodium <126 mEq/L at listing or while listed for transplantation is a strong independent predictor of mortality. Addition of serum sodium to MELD increases the ability to predict 3- and 6-month mortality in patients with cirrhosis.