Predicted effect of regionalised delivery care on neonatal mortality, utilisation, financial risk, and patient utility in Malawi: an agent-based modelling analysis

Trends and inequalities in neonatal mortality rate in Bangladesh: Evidence from cross-sectional surveys

Background and Aims

Given the significance of addressing neonatal mortality in pursuing the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal on child health, research focus on this area is crucial. Despite the persistent high rates of neonatal mortality rate (NMR) in Bangladesh, there remains a notable lack of robust evidence addressing inequalities in NMR in the country. Therefore, this study aims to fill the knowledge gap by comprehensively investigating inequalities in NMR in Bangladesh.

Methods

The Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) data from 2000 to 2017 were analyzed. The equity stratifiers used to measure the inequalities were wealth status, mother's education, place of residence, and subnational region. Difference (D) and population attributable fraction (PAF) were absolute measures, whereas population attributable risk (PAR) and ratio (R) were relative measures of inequality. Statistical significance was considered by estimating 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each estimate.

Results

A declining trend in NMR was found in Bangladesh, from 50.2 in 2000 to 31.9 deaths per 1000 live births in 2017. This study detected significant wealth-driven (PAF: -20.6, 95% CI: -24.9, -16.3; PAR: -6.6, 95% CI: -7.9, -5.2), education-related (PAF: -11.6, 95% CI: -13.4, -9.7; PAR: -3.7, 95% CI: -4.3, -3.1), and regional (PAF: -20.6, 95% CI: -27.0, -14.3; PAR: -6.6, 95% CI: -8.6, -4.6) disparities in NMR in all survey points. We also found a significant urban-rural inequality from 2000 to 2014, except in 2017. Both absolute and relative inequalities in NMR were observed; however, these inequalities decreased over time.

Conclusion

Significant variations in NMR across subgroups in Bangladesh highlight the need for comprehensive, and targeted interventions. Empowering women through improved access to economic resources and education may help address disparities in NMR in Bangladesh. Future research and policies should focus on developing strategies to address these disparities and promote equitable health outcomes for all newborns.

Effect of the Implementation of the French Hospital Regionalization Policy on Patient Mobility

A new law was voted in France in 2016 to increase cooperation between public sector hospitals. Hospitals were encouraged to work under the leadership of local referral centers and to share their support functions (e.g., information systems) with newly created hospital groups, called "Regional Hospital Groups." The law made it compulsory for each public sector hospital to become affiliated with one of 136 newly created hospital groups. The policy's aim was to ensure that all patients were sent to the hospital best qualified to treat their unique condition, among the hospitals available at the regional level. Therefore, we aimed to assess whether this regionalization policy was associated with changes in observed patterns of patient mobility between hospitals. This nationwide observational study followed an interrupted time series design. For each stay occurring from 2014 to 2019, we ascertained whether or not the stay was followed by mobility toward another hospital within 90 days, and whether or not the receiving hospital was part of the same Regional Hospital Group as the sender hospital. The proportion of mobility directed toward the same regional hospital group increased from 22.9% in 2014 (95% CI 22.7-23.1) to 24.6% in 2019 (95% CI 24.4-24.8). However, the absence of discontinuity during the policy change year was consistent with the hypothesis of a preexisting trend toward regionalization. Therefore, the policy did not achieve major changes in patterns of mobility between hospitals. Other objectives of the reform, including long-term consequences on the healthcare offer, remain to be assessed.

A Novel Dynamic Approach for Risk Analysis and Simulation Using Multi-Agents Model

Static risk analysis techniques (SRATs) use event graphs and risk analysis assessment models. Those techniques are not time-based techniques and hence are inadequate to model dynamic stochastic systems. This paper proposes a novel dynamic approach to model such stochastic systems using Dynamic Fault Trees (DFT). The proposed model is called Generic Dynamic Agent-Based Model (GDABM) for risk analysis. GDABM is built on top of the well-known Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) technique. GDABM can model the dynamic system agents in both nominal (failure-free) and degraded (failure) modes. GDABM shows the propagation of failure between system elements and provides complete information about the system’s configurations. In this paper, a complete detailed case study is provided to show the GDABM capabilities to model and study the risk analysis for such dynamic systems. In the case study, the GDABM models the risk analysis for a chemical reactor/operator and performs a complete risk analysis for the entire system. The GDABM managed to simulate the dynamic behavior of the system’s components successfully using Repast Simphony 2.0. Detailed agent behavioral modes and failure modes are provided with various scenarios, including different time stamps. The proposed GDABM is compared to a reference model. The reference model is referred to as the ABM model. GDABM has given very promising results. A comparison study was performed on three performance measures. The performance measures used are (1) Accuracy, (2) response time, and (3) execution time. GDABM has outperformed the reference model by 15% in terms of accuracy and by 27% in terms of response time. GDABM incurs a slightly higher execution time (13%) when compared to the ABM reference model. It can be concluded that GDABM can deliver accepted performance in terms of accuracy and response time without incurring much processing overhead.

Health system redesign for maternal and newborn survival: rethinking care models to close the global equity gap

Large disparities in maternal and neonatal mortality exist between low- and high-income countries. Mothers and babies continue to die at high rates in many countries despite substantial increases in facility birth. One reason for this may be the current design of health systems in most low-income countries where, unlike in high-income countries, a substantial proportion of births occur in primary care facilities that cannot offer definitive care for complications. We argue that the current inequity in care for childbirth is a global double standard that limits progress on maternal and newborn survival. We propose that health systems need to be redesigned to shift all deliveries to hospitals or other advanced care facilities to bring care in line with global best practice. Health system redesign will require investing in high-quality hospitals with excellent midwifery and obstetric care, boosting quality of primary care clinics for antenatal, postnatal, and newborn care, decreasing access and financial barriers, and mobilizing populations to demand high-quality care. Redesign is a structural reform that is contingent on political leadership that envisions a health system designed to deliver high-quality, respectful care to all women giving birth. Getting redesign right will require focused investments, local design and adaptation, and robust evaluation.

How much is enough? Exploring the dose-response relationship between cash transfers and surgical utilization in a resource-poor setting

Objective

Cash transfers are a common intervention to incentivize salutary behavior in resource-constrained settings. Many cash transfer studies do not, however, account for the effect of the size of the cash transfer in design or analysis. A randomized, controlled trial of a cash-transfer intervention is planned to incentivize appropriate surgical utilization in Guinea. The aim of the current study is to determine the size of that cash transfer so as to maximize compliance while minimizing cost.

Methods

Data were collected from nine coastal Guinean hospitals on their surgical capabilities and the cost of receiving surgery. These data were combined with publicly available data about the general Guinean population to create an agent-based model predicting surgical utilization. The model was validated to the available literature on surgical utilization. Cash transfer sizes from 0 to 1,000,000 Guinean francs were evaluated, with surgical compliance as the primary outcome.

Results

Compliance with scheduled surgery increases as the size of a cash transfer increases. This increase is asymptotic, with a leveling in utilization occurring when the cash transfer pays for all the costs associated with surgical care. Below that cash transfer size, no other optima are found. Once a cash transfer completely covers the costs of surgery, other barriers to care such as distance and hospital quality dominate

Conclusion

Cash transfers to incentivize health-promoting behavior appear to be dose-dependent. Maximal impact is likely only to occur when full patient costs are eliminated. These findings should be incorporated in the design of future cash transfer studies.