Progress and prospects for the control of HIV and tuberculosis in South Africa: a dynamical modelling study

Who is Exposed to HIV Prevention Interventions? An Assessment of Associated Factors Among Adolescent Girls and Young Women in South Africa

This study examined the prevalence of HIV risk factors and their association with intervention exposure among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) living in six South African districts in which a combination HIV-prevention intervention was being implemented. A cross-sectional household survey was conducted from 2017 to 2018 among a representative sample of AGYW aged 15-24 years living in the six districts. We used an electronic questionnaire for self-reported demographic and behavioural questions and blood samples were taken to confirm HIV status in the laboratory. Chi-Squared tests and multivariate binary logistic regression were used to examine associations between demographic characteristics, HIV acquisition and transmission risk factors and the likelihood of participating in any of the key components of the combination HIV-prevention intervention. Among the 4399 participants, 45.3% reported inconsistent condom use with casual partner and 46.6% with a main partner. Almost half of participants (47.8%) had participated in one or more components of the HIV-prevention intervention, and in a multivariate logistic regression, those reporting a higher number of HIV risk behaviours were no more (or less) likely to participate. Participants who were not in high school were significantly less likely to have participated in the intervention compared to those still in high school, when adjusting for age and HIV risk factors. The barriers to access and uptake of combination HIV prevention interventions among AGYW who are out of the education system need to be explored and combination HIV prevention interventions and implementation strategies need to be tailored to reach this population.

Participation in an HIV prevention intervention and access to and use of contraceptives among young women: A cross sectional analysis in six South African districts

OBJECTIVE

This study investigated whether young women's participation in a combination HIV-prevention intervention was associated with accessing and using condoms and other contraceptives.

STUDY DESIGN

A cross-sectional household survey was conducted from 2017 to 2018 among a representative sample of young women aged 15-24 years old living in six South African districts in which the intervention was implemented. Cross-tabulations and multivariate regression analyses of weighted data were performed to examine access to and use of condoms and other contraceptives.

RESULTS

In total 4399 young women participated, representing a 60.6% response rate. Of participants, 61.0% (n = 2685) reported accessing condoms and other contraceptives in the past year. Among those who ever had sex (n = 3009), 51.0% used condoms and 37.4% other contraceptives at last sex. Among 15-19 year old, participation in the combination intervention was positively associated with reporting contraceptive use other than condoms at last sex (Prevalence Ratio (PR): 1.36; 95% CI: 1.21-1.53) and reporting use of both condoms and other contraceptives at last sex (PR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.26-1.68). No associations were observed in the age group 20-24.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that combination HIV prevention interventions may lead to increased access and use of condoms and other methods of contraception among adolescent women, but this needs to be confirmed in experimental studies. We need to test different or more intensive interventions to increase contraceptive use in young women aged 20-24.

IMPLICATIONS

Participating in combination HIV prevention interventions that are delivered via multiple approaches may promote access to, and use of condoms and other methods of contraceptives among adolescent women, and thereby help reduce unintended pregnancies.

Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent among the HIV-negative population and ranks first among the HIV-positive population. However, few studies have assessed tuberculosis trends in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) or with an emphasis on HIV status. This study assesses the time trends of tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS with an emphasis on HIV status from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We obtained tuberculosis data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study (GBD 2019). We calculated the relative proportion of tuberculosis to all communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases by HIV status across the BRICS. We used age-period-cohort modelling to estimate cohort and period effects in tuberculosis from 1990 to 2019, and calculated net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks.

FINDINGS

There were 549,522 tuberculosis deaths across the BRICS in 2019, accounting for 39.3% of global deaths. Among HIV-negative populations, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of tuberculosis in BRICS remained far higher than that of high-income Asia Pacific countries, especially in India (36.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [30.7, 42.6]) and South Africa (40.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [36.8, 43.7]). China had the fastest ASMR reduction across the BRICS, while India maintained the largest tuberculosis death numbers with an annual decrease much slower than China's (-4.1 vs -8.0%). Among HIV-positive populations, the ASMR in BRICS surged from 0.24 per 100 000 in 1990 to 5.63 per 100 000 in 2005, and then dropped quickly to 1.70 per 100 000 in 2019. Brazil was the first country to reverse the upward trend of HIV/AIDS-tuberculosis (HIV-TB) mortality in 1995, and achieved the most significant reduction (-3.32% per year). The HIV-TB mortality in South Africa has realised much progress since 2006, but still has the heaviest HIV-TB burden across the BRICS (ASMR: 70.0 per 100 000 in 2019). We also found unfavourable trends among HIV-negative middle-aged (35-55) adults of India, men over 50 in the HIV-negative population and whole HIV-positive population of South Africa, and women aged 45-55 years of Russia. China had little progress in its HIV-positive population with worsening period risks from 2010 to 2019, and higher risks in the younger cohorts born after 1980.

INTERPRETATION

BRICS' actions on controlling tuberculosis achieved positive results, but the overall improvements were less than those in high-income Asia Pacific countries. BRICS and other high-burden countries should strengthen specified public health approaches and policies targeted at different priority groups in each country.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073573; 72074009), Peking University Global Health and Infectious Diseases Group.

Predictors of tuberculosis incidence and the effects of multiple deprivation indices on tuberculosis management in OR Tambo district over a 5-year period

Background

This study investigated the associations between socio-economic deprivation and tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes, alongside well-known TB risk factors. The effects of healthcare expenditures and their growth on trends in TB incidence from 2009 to 2013 were also assessed.

Methods

Secondary data analysis was performed on data obtained from various sources including governmental, non-governmental and research institutions. Indicators for TB treatment outcomes included TB death rate, TB rate among the household contacts of the Index TB cases, TB treatment failure, HIV associated TB death rate, TB defaulter rate, and new TB smear positive cases. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Turkey’s tests for post-hoc analysis were used to compare means of variables of interest considering a type I error rate of 0.05. Regression models and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) were used to explore the associations between trends in TB incidence and independent TB predictors. During CDA, Fischer’s linear functions, Eigen values, and Mahalanobis distances were determined with values of Wilk’s Lambda closer to zero being the evidence for well discriminated patient groups. Data analysis was performed using SPSS® statistical software version 23.0 (Chicago, IL).

Results

In total, 62 400 records of TB notification were analyzed for the period 2009–2013. The average TB incidence rate over a 5-year period was 298 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year. The incidence of TB was reduced by 79.70% at the end of the evaluation as compared to the baseline data in 2009. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the Expenditure per patient day equivalent (PDE) and PHC expenditure per capita were significantly and independently associated with the decline of TB incidence (adjusted R² = 60%; ρ = 0.002) following the equation: Y = (- 209× Expenditure per PDE) + (- 0.191 × PHC expenditure per capita). CDA showed that in the most socio-economically deprived communities (quintile 1), HIV associated TB death rates were significantly more likely to be higher as compared to the least socio-economically deprived group (quintile 5) [Eigen value (12.95), function coefficient (1.49) > (.77); Wilk’s Lambda = .019, p < .0001].

Conclusions

Although TB control programs in OR Tambo district have averted thousands of TB incident cases, their effects on HIV associated TB deaths among the most deprived communities remain insignificant. There is an urgent need for strengthening integration of TB/HIV services in most deprived settings.

Accessing HIV care may lead to earlier ascertainment of comorbidities in health care clients in Khayelitsha, Cape Town

Successful antiretroviral rollout in South Africa has greatly increased the health of the HIV-positive population, and morbidity and mortality in PLHIV can increasingly be attributed to comorbidities rather than HIV/AIDS directly. Understanding this disease burden can inform health care planning for a growing population of ageing PLHIV. Anonymized routine administrative health data were analysed for all adults who accessed public health care in 2016-2017 in Khayelitsha subdistrict (Cape Town, South Africa). Selected comorbidities and age of ascertainment for comorbidities were described for all HIV-positive and HIV-negative healthcare clients, as well as for a subset of women who accessed maternal care. There were 172 937 adult individuals with a median age of 37 (IQR:30-48) years in the virtual cohort, of whom 48% (83 162) were HIV-positive. Median age of ascertainment for each comorbidity was lower in HIV-positive compared to HIV-negative healthcare clients, except in the case of tuberculosis. A subset of women who previously accessed maternal care, however, showed much smaller differences in the median age of comorbidity ascertainment between the group of HIV-positive and HIV-negative health care clients, except in the case of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Both HIV-positive individuals and women who link to maternal care undergo routine point-of-care screening for common diseases at younger ages, and this analysis suggests that this may lead to earlier diagnosis of common comorbidities in these groups. Exceptions include CKD, in which age of ascertainment appears lower in PLHIV than HIV-negative groups in all analyses suggesting that age of disease onset may indeed be earlier; and tuberculosis for which age of incidence has previously been shown to vary according to HIV status.

Diabetes in a TB and HIV-endemic South African population: Analysis of a virtual cohort using routine health data

BACKGROUND

It is widely accepted that people living with diabetes (PLWD) are at increased risk of infectious disease, yet there is a paucity of epidemiology studies on the relationship between diabetes and infectious disease in SSA. In a region with a high burden of infectious disease, this has serious consequences for PLWD.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using routinely collected longitudinal health data, we describe the epidemiology of diabetes in a large virtual cohort of PLWD who have a high burden of HIV and TB, from the Khayelitsha subdistrict in the Western Cape Province in South Africa. We described the relationship between previous TB, newly diagnosed TB disease and HIV infection on diabetes using HbA1c results as an outcome measure. The study population was predominately female (67%), 13% had a history of active TB disease and 18% were HIV positive. The HIV positive group had diabetes ascertained at a significantly younger age (46 years c.f. 53 years respectively, p<0.001) and in general had increased HbA1c values over time after their HIV diagnosis, when compared to the HIV-negative group. There was no evidence of TB disease influencing the trajectory of glycaemic control in the long term, but diabetes patients who developed active TB had higher mortality than those without TB (12.4% vs 6.7% p-value < 0.001). HIV and diabetes are both chronic diseases whose long-term management includes drug therapy, however, only 52.8% of the study population with an HIV-diabetes comorbidity had a record of diabetes treatment. In addition, the data suggest overall poor glycaemic control in the study population with only 24.5% of the participants having an HbA1c <7% at baseline despite 85% of the study population being on diabetes treatment.

CONCLUSION

The epidemiologic findings in this exploratory study highlight the need for further research into diabetes outcomes in a high TB and HIV burden setting and demonstrate that routine health data are a valuable resource for understanding disease epidemiology in the general population.

Reaching 90-90-90 in Botswana

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Botswana, a small country in southern Africa, has had a very high prevalence of HIV since about 1995. It seems important to analyze the response of this country to help us understand how it became one of the first nations to achieve the 90-90-90 targets.

RECENT FINDINGS

Botswana began a national program for treatment of HIV/AIDS with ARVs in 2002. Initially established in the four largest population centers, it expanded to more than 30 sites throughout the country by 2004. Also in 2004, an 'opt out' system for HIV testing was introduced. The government-sponsored ARV regimen for initiation was ZDV/3TC/EFV until 2008, then TDF/FTC/EFV until 2016, when it became TDF/FTC/DTG along with the introduction of treatment for all. Levels of both acquired and transmitted drug resistance have been low. In late 2013, we began the Ya Tsie or Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCCP), a cluster randomized trial for 100 000 exurban and rural adults in 30 villages that included enhanced testing, linkage to care, and ARV treatment for 15 intervention villages, one in each pair. A 20% baseline survey in 2013-2015 revealed 29% prevalence and values that were already close to 90-90-90. With 83.3% of HIV-positive adults knowing they were infected, 87.4% of those knowing they were infected already on ARV, and 96.5% of those on ARV in complete viral suppression, this represented a combined value of 70.2% toward the target of 73%. By best estimates, incidence fell by about 30% over the 29-month period of the trial, which is compatible with Botswana reaching a 90% reduction in incidence in 10 years as proposed by the UNAIDS model. On the basis of an end-of-study survey in three intervention villages, we estimate that Botswana could reach 95-95-95 by 2019.

SUMMARY

These results illustrate that it is possible to reach 90-90-90 in countries with very high HIV prevalence.

Modelling the impact of migrants on the success of the HIV care and treatment program in Botswana

Introduction

Botswana offers publicly financed HIV treatment to citizens, but not migrants, who comprised about 7% of the population in 2016. However, HIV incidence is not declining in proportion to Botswana’s HIV response. In 2018, Botswana had 86% of citizens living with HIV diagnosed, 95% of people diagnosed on treatment, and 95% viral suppression among those on treatment. We hypothesised that continued exclusion of migrants is hampering reduction of HIV incidence in Botswana. Hence, we modelled the impact of including migrants in Botswana’s HIV response on achieving 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 Fast-Track targets by 2020 and 2030, respectively.

Methods

The Optima HIV model, with demographic, epidemiological, and behavioural inputs, was applied to citizens of and migrants to Botswana. Projections of new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths were compared for three scenarios to the end of 2030: (1) continued status quo for HIV testing and treatment coverage, and maintenance of levels of linkage to care, loss to follow-up, and viral suppression among citizens and migrants (baseline); (2) with scaled-up budget, optimised to achieve 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 Fast-Track targets by 2020 and 2030, respectively, for citizens only; and (3) scaled-up optimised budget to achieve these targets for both citizens and migrants.

Results

A baseline of 172,000 new HIV infections and 8,400 HIV-related deaths was projected over 2020–2030. Scaling up to achieve targets among citizens only averted an estimated 48,000 infections and 1,700 deaths. Achieving targets for both citizens and migrants averted 16,000 (34%) more infections and 442 (26%) more deaths. Scaling up for both populations reduced numbers of new HIV infections and deaths by 44% and 39% respectively compared with 2010 levels. Treating migrants when scaling up in both populations was estimated to cost USD 74 million over 2020–2030.

Conclusions

Providing HIV services to migrants in Botswana could lead to further reductions in HIV incidence and deaths. However, even with an increased, optimised budget that achieves 95-95-95 targets for both citizens and migrants by 2030, the 90% incidence reduction target for 2020 will be missed. Further efficiencies and innovations will be needed to meet HIV targets in Botswana.

Cost-Effectiveness of Accelerated HIV Response Scenarios in Côte d'Ivoire

BACKGROUND

Despite Côte d'Ivoire epidemic being labeled as "generalized," key populations (KPs) are important to overall transmission. Using a dynamic model of HIV transmission, we previously estimated the impact of several treatment-as-prevention strategies that reached-or missed-the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets in different populations groups, including KP and clients of female sex workers (CFSWs). To inform program planning and resources allocation, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of these scenarios.

METHODS

Costing was performed from the provider's perspective. Unit costs were obtained from the Ivorian Programme national de lutte contre le Sida (USD 2015) and discounted at 3%. Net incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) per adult HIV infection prevented and per disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) averted were estimated over 2015-2030.

RESULTS

The 3 most cost-effective and affordable scenarios were the ones that projected current programmatic trends [ICER = $210; 90% uncertainty interval (90% UI): $150-$300], attaining the 90-90-90 objectives among KP and CFSW (ICER = $220; 90% UI: $80-$510), and among KP only (ICER = $290; 90% UI: $90-$660). The least cost-effective scenario was the one that reached the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target accompanied by a 25% point drop in condom use in KP (ICER = $710; 90% UI: $450-$1270). In comparison, the UNAIDS scenario had a net ICER of $570 (90% UI: $390-$900) per DALY averted.

CONCLUSIONS

According to commonly used thresholds, accelerating the HIV response can be considered very cost-effective for all scenarios. However, when balancing epidemiological impact, cost-effectiveness, and affordability, scenarios that sustain both high condom use and rates of viral suppression among KP and CFSW seem most promising in Côte d'Ivoire.

Improving the Validity of Mathematical Models for HIV Elimination by Incorporating Empirical Estimates of Progression Through the HIV Treatment Cascade

BACKGROUND

Optimism regarding prospects for eliminating HIV by expanding antiretroviral treatment has been emboldened in part by projections from several mathematical modeling studies. Drawing from a detailed empirical assessment of rates of progression through the entire HIV care cascade, we quantify for the first time the extent to which models may overestimate health benefits from policy changes when they fail to incorporate a realistic understanding of the cascade.

SETTING

Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

METHODS

We estimated rates of progression through stages of the HIV treatment cascade using data from a longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance system in rural KwaZulu-Natal. Incorporating empirical estimates in a mathematical model of HIV progression, infection transmission, and care, we estimated life expectancy and secondary infections averted under a range of treatment scale-up scenarios reflecting expanding treatment eligibility thresholds. We compared the results with those implied by the conventional assumptions that have been commonly adopted by existing models.

RESULTS

Survival gains from expanding the treatment eligibility threshold from CD4 350-500 cells/μL and from 500 cells/μL to treating everyone irrespective of their CD4 count may be overestimated by 3.60 and 3.79 times in models that fail to capture realities of the care cascade. HIV infections averted from raising the threshold from CD4 200 to 350, 350 to 500, and 500 cells/μL to treating everyone may be overestimated by 1.10, 2.65, and 1.18 times, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Models using conventional assumptions about cascade progression may substantially overestimate health benefits. As implementation of treatment scale-up proceeds, it is important to assess the effects of required scale-up efforts in a way that incorporates empirical realities of how people move through the HIV cascade.

Mobile sexual health services for adolescents: investigating the acceptability of youth-directed mobile clinic services in Cape Town, South Africa

BACKGROUND

The Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) epidemic is growing rapidly among South African adolescents and young adults (AYA). Although HIV counselling and testing, HIV prevention and treatment options are widely available, many AYA delay health-seeking until illness occurs, demonstrating a need for youth responsive, integrated sexual and reproductive health services (SRHS). While feasibility and cost-effectiveness have been evaluated, acceptability of mobile clinics among AYA has yet to be established. The objective of this study was to investigate patient acceptability of mobile AYA SRHS and compare mobile clinic usage and HIV outcomes with nearby conventional clinics.

METHODS

Patients presenting to a mobile clinic in Cape Town were invited to participate in an acceptability study of a mobile clinic after using the service. A trained researcher administered an acceptability questionnaire. Mobile clinic medical records during the study period were compared with the records of AYA attending four clinics in the same community.

RESULTS

Three hundred three enrolled participants (16-24 years, 246 (81.2%) female) rated mobile AYA SRHS acceptability highly (median = 4,6 out of 5), with 90% rating their experience as better or much better than conventional clinics. The mobile clinic, compared to conventional clinics, attracted more men (26% v 13%, p < 0,000), younger patients (18 v 19 years, p < 0,000), and yielded more HIV diagnoses (4% v 2%, p < 0,000).

CONCLUSIONS

Given the high ratings of acceptability, and the preference for mobile clinics over conventional primary health clinics, the scalability of mobile clinics should be investigated as part of a multipronged approach to improve the uptake of SRHS diagnostic, prevention and treatment options for AYA.

HIV-attributable causes of death in the medical ward at the Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital, South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Data on the association between HIV infection and deaths from underlying medical conditions are needed to understand and assess the impact of HIV on mortality. We present data on mortality in the Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital (CHBH) South Africa and analyse the relationship between each cause of death and HIV.

METHODS

From 2006 to 2009 data were collected on 15,725 deaths including age, sex, day of admittance and of death, HIV status, ART initiation and CD4+ cell counts. Causes of death associated with HIV were cases, causes of death not associated with HIV were controls. We calculate the odds-ratios (ORs) for being HIV-positive and for each AIDS related condition the disease-attributable fraction (DAF) and the population-attributable fraction (PAF) due to HIV for cases relative to controls.

RESULTS

Among those that died, the prevalence of HIV was 61% and of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) related conditions was 69%. The HIV-attributable fraction was 36% in the whole sample and 60% in those that were HIV-positive. Cryptococcosis, Kaposi's sarcoma and Pneumocystis jirovecii, TB, gastroenteritis and anaemia were highly predictive of HIV with odds ratios for being HIV-positive ranging from 8 to 124, while genito-urinary conditions, meningitis, other respiratory conditions and sepsis, lymphoma and conditions of skin and bone were significantly associated with HIV with odds ratios for being HIV-positive ranging from 3 to 8. Most of the deaths attributable to HIV were among those dying of TB or of other respiratory conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

The high prevalence of HIV among those that died, peaking at 70% in those aged 30 years but still 7% in those aged 80 years, demonstrates the impact of the HIV epidemic on adult mortality and on hospital services and the extent to which early anti-retroviral treatment would have reduced the burden of both. These data make it possible to better assess mortality and morbidity due to HIV in this still high prevalence setting and, in particular, to identify those causes of death that are most strongly associated with HIV.

Climate change adaptation in South Africa: a case study on the role of the health sector

BACKGROUND

Globally, the response to climate change is gradually gaining momentum as the impacts of climate change unfold. In South Africa, it is increasingly apparent that delays in responding to climate change over the past decades have jeopardized human life and livelihoods. While slow progress with mitigation, especially in the energy sector, has garnered much attention, focus is now shifting to developing plans and systems to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

METHODS

We applied systematic review methods to assess progress with climate change adaptation in the health sector in South Africa. This case study provides useful lessons which could be applied in other countries in the African region, or globally. We reviewed the literature indexed in PubMed and Web of Science, together with relevant grey literature. We included articles describing adaptation interventions to reduce the impact of climate change on health in South Africa. All study designs were eligible. Data from included articles and grey literature were summed thematically.

RESULTS

Of the 820 publications screened, 21 were included, together with an additional xx papers. Very few studies presented findings of an intervention or used high-quality research designs. Several policy frameworks for climate change have been developed at national and local government levels. These, however, pay little attention to health concerns and the specific needs of vulnerable groups. Systems for forecasting extreme weather, and tracking malaria and other infections appear well established. Yet, there is little evidence about the country's preparedness for extreme weather events, or the ability of the already strained health system to respond to these events. Seemingly, few adaptation measures have taken place in occupational and other settings. To date, little attention has been given to climate change in training curricula for health workers.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the volume and quality of research is disappointing, and disproportionate to the threat posed by climate change in South Africa. This is surprising given that the requisite expertise for policy advocacy, identifying effective interventions and implementing systems-based approaches rests within the health sector. More effective use of data, a traditional strength of health professionals, could support adaptation and promote accountability of the state. With increased health-sector leadership, climate change could be reframed as predominately a health issue, one necessitating an urgent, adequately-resourced response. Such a shift in South Africa, but also beyond the country, may play a key role in accelerating climate change adaptation and mitigation.

"If you are here at the clinic, you do not know how many people need help in the community": Perspectives of home-based HIV services from health care workers in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa in the era of universal test-and-treat

Background

Limited engagement in clinic-based care is affecting the HIV response. We explored the field experiences and perceptions of local health care workers regarding home-based strategies as opportunities to improve the cascade of care of people living with HIV in rural South Africa as part of a Universal Test-and-Treat approach.

Methods

In Hlabisa sub-district, home-based HIV services, including rapid HIV testing and counselling, and support for linkage to and retention in clinic-based HIV care, were implemented by health care workers within the ANRS 12249 Treatment-as-Prevention (TasP) trial. From April to July 2016, we conducted a mixed-methods study among health care workers from the TasP trial and from local government clinics, using self-administrated questionnaires (n = 90 in the TasP trial, n = 56 in government clinics), semi-structured interviews (n = 13 in the TasP trial, n = 5 in government clinics) and three focus group discussions (n = 6–10 health care workers of the TasP trial per group). Descriptive statistics were used for quantitative data and qualitative data were analysed thematically.

Results

More than 90% of health care workers assessed home-based testing and support for linkage to care as feasible and acceptable by the population they serve. Many health care workers underlined how home visits could facilitate reaching people who had slipped through the cracks of the clinic-based health care system and encourage them to successfully access care. Health care workers however expressed concerns about the ability of home-based services to answer the HIV care needs of all community members, including people working outside their home during the day or those who fear HIV-related stigmatization. Overall, health care workers encouraged policy-makers to more formally integrate home-based services in the local health system. They promoted reshaping the disease-specific and care-oriented services towards more comprehensive goals.

Conclusion

Because home-based services allow identification of people early during their infection and encourage them to take actions leading to viral suppression, HCWs assessed them as valuable components within the panel of UTT interventions, aiming to reach the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets, especially in the rural Southern African region.

Trial registration

The registration number of the ANRS 12249 TasP trial on ClinicalTrials.gov is NCT01509508.

Will the current National Strategic Plan enable South Africa to end AIDS, Tuberculosis and Sexually Transmitted Infections by 2022?

Background

In May 2017, the South African National AIDS Council released the fourth National Strategic Plan (NSP) for HIV, tuberculosis and sexually transmitted infections. This five-year plan (2017–2022), which aims to track the progress towards transitioning these epidemics to no longer being public health threats by the year 2030, is built on the successes and barriers of the previous NSP (2012–2016). However, the NSP does not address some critical components, which may contribute to a future failure in achieving its hefty goals.

Objectives

This article outlines the gaps within the new NSP, as well as highlighting aspects requiring careful focus, which are critical to address in order for South Africa to make progress towards the set targets.

Method

This commentary included an in depth review of the NSP, other South African National Strategic Plans and documents, and scientific literature.

Results

The NSP does not address gaps in funding, oversights in prevention and treatment strategies, human resource shortages and lacking health system requirements.

Conclusion

To realistically achieve the NSP targets and goals, a robust, client-centred strategy addressing the NSP gaps needs to be implemented. The strategy must be cost-effective; provide active linkage to care; and address health system weaknesses that inhibit its successful implementation, including human resources, service delivery and supply chain management, accountability and monitoring and evaluation (M&E).

Modeling tuberculosis dynamics with the presence of hyper-susceptible individuals for Ho Chi Minh City from 1996 to 2015

BACKGROUND

The depletion of CD4 cell is the underlying reason for TB hyper-susceptibility among people with HIV. Consequently, the trend of TB dynamics is usually hidden by the HIV outbreak.

METHODS

Here, we aim to evaluate the trend of TB dynamics quantitatively by a simple mathematical model using the known prevalence of hyper-susceptible individuals in the population. In order to estimate the parameters governing transmission we fit this model in a maximum likelihood framework to both reported TB cases and data from samples tested with Interferon Gamma Assay from Ho Chi Minh City - a city with high TB transmission and strong synchronization between HIV/AIDS and TB dynamics.

RESULTS

Our results show that TB transmission in HCMC has been declining among people without HIV; we estimate a 18% (95% CI: 9-25%) decline in the transmission parameter between 1996 and 2015. Furthermore, we show that co-infected patients have limited contribution to the transmission process. For hyper-susceptible individuals, our model suggests that the risk of a new active TB infection occurring is significantly higher than the risk of relapsed active TB, while this is not the case for people without hyper-susceptibility.

CONCLUSIONS

The increase of TB notifications in Ho Chi Minh City from 1996 to 2008 is evitable when, as occurred, the number of hyper-susceptible individuals increased faster than the decrease of TB transmission rate. The sharp decrease in TB notifications observed in this city from 2008 to 2015 is the combined result of the decrease of TB transmission rate and the decrease of hyper-susceptible individuals in the population. For hyper-susceptible individuals, we propose that the reason for the reduced relapsed active TB risk is HIV treatment delay. According to HIV treatment guidelines issued by Vietnam's Ministry of Health, hyper-susceptible individuals usually have to wait until their CD4 cell count falls under 350 cells/μl to start ART. Once patients begin ART, they will remain on ART for the rest of their life and thus have greater protection against relapses of TB. We therefore hypothesize that the delay in using ART imposes considerable TB burden on HCMC despite the declining transmission process.

HIV, HCV and HBV: A Review of Parallels and Differences

Elimination of the three blood-borne viruses—human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV)—as public health issues may be plausible in the near future. Spectacular advances have been made with the introduction of highly effective antiviral agents into clinical practice, and prevention strategies are available for all three infections. Effective disease control, laid out by WHO global strategies, is currently feasible for all three viruses. However, for worldwide elimination of these viruses, effective vaccines are required that are currently only available for HBV. In this review differences and parallels among HIV, HCV and HBV will be discussed with a focus on virologic and therapeutic issues, and prospects for the future of HBV will be presented.