Evaluation of a national smoke-free prisons policy using medication dispensing: an interrupted time-series analysis

The impact of mass vaccination policy and control measures on lumpy skin disease cases in Thailand: insights from a Bayesian structural time series analysis

Introduction

In 2021, Thailand reported the highest incidence of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks in Asia. In response to the widespread outbreaks in cattle herds, the government's livestock authorities initiated comprehensive intervention measures, encompassing control strategies and a national vaccination program. Yet, the efficacy of these interventions remained unevaluated. This research sought to assess the nationwide intervention's impact on the incidence of new LSD cases through causal impact analysis.

Methods

Data on weekly new LSD cases in Thailand from March to September 2021 was analyzed. The Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) analysis was employed to evaluate the causal relationship between new LSD cases in the pre-intervention phase (prior to the vaccination campaign) and the post-intervention phase (following the vaccination campaign). The assessment involved two distinct scenarios, each determined by the estimated effective intervention dates. In both scenarios, a consistent decline in new LSD cases was observed after the mass vaccination initiative, while other control measures such as the restriction of animal movement, insect control, and the enhancement of the active surveillance approach remained operational throughout the pre-intervention and the post-intervention phases.

Results and discussion

According to the relative effect results obtained from scenario A and B, it was observed that the incidence of LSD cases exhibited reductions of 119% (95% Credible interval [CrI]: -121%, -38%) and 78% (95% CrI: -126, -41%), respectively. The BSTS results underscored the significant influence of these interventions, with a Bayesian one-sided tail-area probability of p < 0.05. This model-based study provides insight into the application of BSTS in evaluating the impact of nationwide LSD vaccination based on the national-level data. The present study is groundbreaking in two respects: it is the first study to quantify the causal effects of a mass vaccination intervention on the LSD outbreak in Thailand, and it stands as the only endeavor of its kind in the Asian context. The insights collected from this study hold potential value for policymakers in Thailand and other countries at risk of LSD outbreaks.

Implementation of a national smoke-free prison policy: an economic evaluation within the Tobacco in Prisons (TIPs) study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the cost-effectiveness of a smoke-free prison policy in Scotland, through assessments of the trade-offs between costs (healthcare and non-healthcare-related expenditure) and outcomes (health and non-health-related non-monetary consequences) of implementing the policy.

DESIGN

A health economic evaluation consisting of three analyses (cost-consequence, cost-effectiveness and cost-utility), from the perspectives of the healthcare payer, prison service, people in custody and operational staff, assessed the trade-offs between costs and outcomes. Costs associated with the implementation of the policy, healthcare resource use and personal spend on nicotine products were considered, alongside health and non-health outcomes. The cost-effectiveness of the policy was evaluated over 12-month and lifetime horizons (short term and long term).

SETTING

Scotland's national prison estate.

PARTICIPANTS

People in custody and operational prison staff.

INTERVENTION

Implementation of a comprehensive (indoor and outdoor) smoke-free policy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Concentration of secondhand smoke, health-related quality of life (health utilities and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY)) and various non-health outcomes (eg, incidents of assaults and fires).

RESULTS

The short-term analyses suggest cost savings for people in custody and staff, improvements in concentration of secondhand smoke, with no consistent direction of change across other outcomes. The long-term analysis demonstrated that implementing smoke-free policy was cost-effective over a lifetime for people in custody and staff, with approximate cost savings of £28 000 and £450, respectively, and improvement in health-related quality of life of 0.971 QALYs and 0.262, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Implementing a smoke-free prison policy is cost-effective over the short term and long term for people in custody and staff.

COVID-19 due to the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant compared to B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant of SARS-CoV-2: a prospective observational cohort study

The Delta (B.1.617.2) variant was the predominant UK circulating SARS-CoV-2 strain between May and December 2021. How Delta infection compares with previous variants is unknown. This prospective observational cohort study assessed symptomatic adults participating in the app-based COVID Symptom Study who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 from May 26 to July 1, 2021 (Delta overwhelmingly the predominant circulating UK variant), compared (1:1, age- and sex-matched) with individuals presenting from December 28, 2020 to May 6, 2021 (Alpha (B.1.1.7) the predominant variant). We assessed illness (symptoms, duration, presentation to hospital) during Alpha- and Delta-predominant timeframes; and transmission, reinfection, and vaccine effectiveness during the Delta-predominant period. 3581 individuals (aged 18 to 100 years) from each timeframe were assessed. The seven most frequent symptoms were common to both variants. Within the first 28 days of illness, some symptoms were more common with Delta versus Alpha infection (including fever, sore throat, and headache) and some vice versa (dyspnoea). Symptom burden in the first week was higher with Delta versus Alpha infection; however, the odds of any given symptom lasting ≥ 7 days was either lower or unchanged. Illness duration ≥ 28 days was lower with Delta versus Alpha infection, though unchanged in unvaccinated individuals. Hospitalisation for COVID-19 was unchanged. The Delta variant appeared more (1.49) transmissible than Alpha. Re-infections were low in all UK regions. Vaccination markedly reduced the risk of Delta infection (by 69-84%). We conclude that COVID-19 from Delta or Alpha infections is similar. The Delta variant is more transmissible than Alpha; however, current vaccines showed good efficacy against disease. This research framework can be useful for future comparisons with new emerging variants.

The ins and outs of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs)

SARS-CoV-2, a newly emerging coronavirus that caused the COVID-19 epidemic, has been spreading quickly throughout the world. Despite immunization and some fairly effective therapeutic regimens, SARS-CoV-2 has been ravaging patients, health workers, and the economy. SARS-CoV-2 mutates and evolves to adapt to its host as a result of extreme selection pressure. As a consequence, new SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged, some of which are classified as variants of concern (VOC) because they exhibit greater transmissibility, cause more-severe disease, are better able to escape immunity, or cause higher mortality than the original Wuhan strain. Here, we introduce these VOCs and review their characteristics, such as transmissibility, immune escape, mortality risk, and diagnostics.

Process and impact of implementing a smoke-free policy in prisons in Scotland: TIPs mixed-methods study

Background

Prisons had partial exemption from the UK’s 2006/7 smoking bans in enclosed public spaces. They became one of the few workplaces with continuing exposure to second-hand smoke, given the high levels of smoking among people in custody. Despite the introduction of smoke-free prisons elsewhere, evaluations of such ‘bans’ have been very limited to date.

Objective

The objective was to provide evidence on the process and impact of implementing a smoke-free policy across a national prison service.

Design

The Tobacco in Prisons study was a three-phase, multimethod study exploring the periods before policy formulation (phase 1: pre announcement), during preparation for implementation (phase 2: preparatory) and after implementation (phase 3: post implementation).

Setting

The study was set in Scotland’s prisons.

Participants

Participants were people in custody, prison staff and providers/users of prison smoking cessation services.

Intervention

Comprehensive smoke-free prison rules were implemented across all of Scotland’s prisons in November 2018.

Main outcome measures

The main outcome measures were second-hand smoke levels, health outcomes and perspectives/experiences, including facilitators of successful transitions to smoke-free prisons.

Data sources

The study utilised cross-sectional surveys of staff (total, n = 3522) and people in custody (total, n = 5956) in each phase; focus groups and/or one-to-one interviews with staff (n = 237 across 34 focus groups; n = 38 interviews), people in custody (n = 62 interviews), providers (n = 103 interviews) and users (n = 45 interviews) of prison smoking cessation services and stakeholders elsewhere (n = 19); measurements of second-hand smoke exposure (e.g. 369,208 minutes of static measures in residential areas at three time points); and routinely collected data (e.g. medications dispensed, inpatient/outpatient visits).

Results

Measures of second-hand smoke were substantially (≈ 90%) reduced post implementation, compared with baseline, largely confirming the views of staff and people in custody that illicit smoking is not a major issue post ban. Several factors that contributed to the successful implementation of the smoke-free policy, now accepted as the ‘new normal’, were identified. E-cigarette use has become common, was recognised (by both staff and people in custody) to have facilitated the transition and raises new issues in prisons. The health economic analysis (lifetime model) demonstrated that costs were lower and the number of quality-adjusted life-years was larger for people in custody and staff in the ‘with smoke-free’ policy period than in the ‘without’ policy period, confirming cost-effectiveness against a £20,000 willingness-to-pay threshold.

Limitations

The ability to triangulate between different data sources mitigated limitations with constituent data sets.

Conclusions

To our knowledge, this is the first study internationally to analyse the views of prison staff and people in custody; objective measurements of second-hand smoke exposure and routine health and other outcomes before, during and after the implementation of a smoke-free prison policy; and to assess cost-effectiveness. The results are relevant to jurisdictions considering similar legislation, whether or not e-cigarettes are permitted. The study provides a model for partnership working and, as a multidimensional study of a national prison system, adds to a previously sparse evidence base internationally.

Future work

Priorities are to understand how to support people in custody in remaining smoke free after release from prison, and whether or not interventions can extend benefits to their families; to evaluate new guidance supporting people wishing to reduce or quit vaping; and to understand how prison vaping practices/cultures may strengthen or weaken long-term reductions in smoking.

Study registration

This study is registered as Research Registry 4802.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 10, No. 1. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.