Impact of hypertension prevalence trend on mortality and burdens of dementia and disability in England and Wales to 2060: a simulation modelling study

Benefits of population-level interventions for dementia risk factors: an economic modelling study for England

BACKGROUND

Individual-level interventions for dementia risk factors could reduce costs associated with dementia and some are cost-effective. We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of population-level interventions for tackling dementia risk factors.

METHODS

In this economic modelling study, we included recommended population-based interventions from a previously published review article for which there was consistent and robust evidence of effectiveness in tackling a dementia risk factor (tobacco smoking, excess alcohol use, hypertension, obesity, air pollution, and head injury). We only included interventions if they had not been introduced in England or were in place but could be extended. The interventions studied were increases in tobacco pricing, minimum pricing for alcohol, raising alcohol price, salt reduction policies, sugar reduction policies, low emission zones, and compulsory helmet use for cycling by children (aged 5-18 years). We used published intervention effect sizes and relative risks for each risk factor and a Markov model to estimate progression to dementia in populations with and without the intervention, looking at lifetime risk, in the population of England.

FINDINGS

We estimated that reductions in excess alcohol use through minimum unit pricing would lead to cost-savings of £280 million and 4767 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained over an indefinite succession of age cohorts. Reformulation of food products to reduce salt would lead to cost-savings of £2·4 billion and 39 433 QALYs gained and reformulation to reduce sugar would lead to cost-savings of £1·046 billion and 17 985 QALYs gained. Reducing dementia risk from air pollution by introducing low emission zones in English cities with a population of 100 000 or more (that do not already impose restrictions) would lead to £260 million cost-savings and 5119 QALYs gained. Raising cigarette prices by 10% to reduce dementia risk from smoking would lead to 2277 QALYs gained and cost-savings of £157 million. Making bicycle helmets compulsory for children (aged 5-18 years) to reduce dementia risk from head injury would lead to cost-savings of £91 million and 1554 QALYs gained.

INTERPRETATION

Population-level interventions could help tackle life course dementia risk and save costs.

FUNDING

UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Three Schools dementia research programme.

Association of the weight-adjusted waist index with hypertension in the context of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine

Objective

Hypertension (HTN) is a prevalent global health concern. From the standpoint of preventive and personalized medicine (PPPM/3PM), early detection of HTN offers a crucial opportunity for targeted prevention and personalized treatment. This study aimed to evaluate the association between the weight-adjusted waist index (WWI) and HTN risk.

Methods

A case-control study using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2005 to 2018 was conducted. Logistic regression models assessed the association between WWI and HTN. Subgroup analyses explored differences in age, sex, ethnicity, and diabetes status. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) analyses examined potential nonlinear relationships.

Results

A total of 32,116 participants, with an average age of 49.28 ± 17.56 years, were included in the study. A significant positive association between WWI and the risk of HTN was identified (odds ratio [OR], 2.49; 95% CI, 2.39-2.59; P < 0.001). When WWI was categorized into quartiles (Q1-Q4), the highest quartile (Q4) exhibited a stronger association compared to Q1 (OR, 2.94; 95% CI, 2.65-3.27; P < 0.001). Subgroup analyses indicated that WWI was a risk factor for HTN across different populations, although variations in the magnitude of effect were observed. Furthermore, the findings from the RCS elucidated a nonlinear positive correlation between WWI and HTN.

Conclusion

WWI is independently associated with HTN risk, highlighting its potential as a risk assessment tool in clinical practice. Incorporating WWI into early detection strategies enhances targeted prevention and personalized management of HTN.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-024-00375-3.

Projection for dementia burden in China to 2050: a macro-simulation study by scenarios of dementia incidence trends

Background

It is unclear how temporal trends in dementia incidence, alongside fast-changing demography, will influence China's future dementia burden. We developed a Markov model that combines population trends in dementia, mortality, and dementia-related comorbidities, to forecast and decompose the burden of dementia in China to 2050.

Methods

Population-based Chinese ageing cohorts provided input data for a 10-health-state Markov macrosimulation model, IMPACT-China Ageing Model (CAM), to predict sex- and age-specific dementia prevalence among people aged 50+ by year to 2050. We assumed three potential future scenarios representing the range of likely dementia incidence trends: upward (+2.9%), flat (0%) or downward (-1.0%). Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine uncertainty associated with trends in mortality rates and CVD incidence. The projected dementia burden was decomposed into population growth, population ageing, and changing dementia prevalence corresponding to the three incidence trend scenarios.

Findings

Under the upward trend scenario, the estimated number of people living with dementia is projected to rise to 66.3 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 64.7-68.0 million), accounting for 10.4% of the Chinese population aged 50+ by 2050. This large burden will be lower, 43.9 (95% UI 42.9-45.0) million and 37.5 (95% UI 36.5-38.4) million, if dementia incidence remains constant or decreases. Robustness of the projection is confirmed by sensitivity analyses. Decomposition of the change in projected dementia cases indicates dominate effects of increasing dementia prevalence and population ageing, and a relatively minor contribution from negative population growth.

Interpretation

Our findings highlight an impending surge in dementia cases in China in the forthcoming decades if the upward trend in dementia incidence continues. Public health interventions geared towards dementia prevention could play a pivotal role in alleviating this burgeoning disease issue.

Funding

National Science Foundation of China/UK Economic and Social Research Council.

Natriuretic peptide system in hypertension: Current understandings of its regulation, targeted therapies and future challenges

The natriuretic peptide system (NPS) is the key driving force of the heart's endocrine function. Recent developments in NPS-targeted therapies have been found promising and effective against cardiovascular diseases, including hypertension. Notably, after discovering crosstalk between NPS and the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS), various combinations such as neprilysin/angiotensin II receptor type 1 AT1 receptor inhibitors and neprilysin/renin inhibitors have been preclinically and clinically tested against various cardiac complications. However, the therapeutic effects of such combinations on the pathophysiology of hypertension are poorly understood. Furthermore, the complicated phenomena underlying NPS regulation and function, particularly in hypertension, are still unexplored. Mounting evidence suggests that numerous regulatory mechanisms modulate the expression of NPS, which can be used as potential targets against hypertension and other cardiovascular diseases. Therefore, this review will specifically focus on epigenetic and other regulators of NPS, identifying prospective regulators that might serve as new therapeutic targets for hypertension. More importantly, it will shed light on recent developments in NPS-targeted therapies, such as M-atrial peptides, and their latest combinations with RAAS modulators, such as S086 and sacubitril-aliskiren. These insights will aid in the development of effective therapies to break the vicious cycle of high blood pressure during hypertension, ultimately addressing the expanding global heart failure pandemic.

Temporal trends in population attributable fractions of modifiable risk factors for dementia: a time-series study of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2004-2019)

BACKGROUND

Interest in modifiable risk factors (MRFs) for dementia is high, given the personal, social, and economic impact of the disorder, especially in ageing societies such as the United Kingdom. Exploring the population attributable fraction (PAF) of dementia attributable to MRFs and how this may have changed over time remains unclear. Unravelling the temporal dynamics of MRFs is crucial for informing the development of evidence-based and effective public health policies. This investigation examined the temporal trajectories of MRFs for dementia in England.

METHODS

We used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a panel study over eight waves collected between 2004 and 2019 (76,904 interviews in total). We calculated the PAFs for twelve MRFs (including six early- to mid-life factors and six late-life factors), as recommended by the Lancet Commission, and the individual weighted PAFs (IW-PAFs) for each risk factor. Temporal trends were analysed to understand the changes in the overall PAF and IW-PAF over the study period. Subgroup analyses were conducted by sex and socioeconomic status (SES).

RESULTS

The overall PAF for dementia MRFs changed from 46.73% in 2004/2005 to 36.79% in 2018/2019, though this trend was not statistically significant. During 2004-2019, hypertension, with an average IW-PAF of 8.21%, was the primary modifiable determinant of dementia, followed by obesity (6.16%), social isolation (5.61%), hearing loss (4.81%), depression (4.72%), low education (4.63%), physical inactivity (3.26%), diabetes mellitus (2.49%), smoking (2.0%), excessive alcohol consumption (1.16%), air pollution (0.42%), and traumatic brain injury (TBI) (0.26%). During 2004-2019, only IW-PAFs of low education, social isolation, and smoking showed significant decreasing trends, while IW-PAFs of other factors either did not change significantly or increased (including TBI, diabetes mellitus, and air pollution). Upon sex-specific disaggregation, a higher overall PAF for MRFs was found among women, predominantly associated with later-life risk factors, most notably social isolation, depression, and physical inactivity. Additionally, hearing loss, classified as an early- to mid-life factor, played a supplementary role in the identified sex disparity. A comparable discrepancy was evident upon PAF evaluation by SES, with lower income groups experiencing a higher dementia risk, largely tied to later-life factors such as social isolation, physical inactivity, depression, and smoking. Early- to mid-life factors, in particular, low education and obesity, were also observed to contribute to the SES-associated divergence in dementia risk. Temporal PAF and IW-PAF trends, stratified by sex and SES, revealed that MRF PAF gaps across sex or SES categories have persisted or increased.

CONCLUSIONS

In England, there was little change over time in the proportion of dementia attributable to known modifiable risk factors. The observed trends underscore the continuing relevance of these risk factors and the need for targeted public health strategies to address them.

Geographical variation in dementia prevalence across China: a geospatial analysis

Background

Dementia poses great health and social challenges in China. Dementia prevalence may vary across geographic areas, while comparable estimations on provincial level is lacking. This study aims to estimate dementia prevalence by provinces across China, taking into account risk factors of individual level and potential spatial correlation of provinces.

Methods

In this study, 17,176 adults aged 50 years or older were included from the fourth wave of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS 2018), covering 28 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities. To improve provincial representativeness, we constructed provincial survey weights based on China 7th census (2020). The prevalence of dementia and 95% Bayesian credible intervals (BCIs) were estimated using a Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) model with spatially varying coefficients of covariates.

Findings

The weighted prevalence of dementia at provincial level in China in 2018 ranged from 2.62% (95%BCI: 1.70%, 3.91%) to 13.53% (95%BCI: 8.82%, 20.93%). High dementia prevalence was concentrated in North China, with a prominent high-high cluster, while provinces of low prevalence were concentrated on East and South China, characterized by a low-low cluster. Ordered by the median estimation of prevalence, the top 10% of provinces, include Xinjiang, Jilin, and Beijing. Meanwhile, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Guangdong rank among the last. The association between dementia prevalence and drinking, smoking, social isolation, physical inactivity, hearing impairment, hypertension, and diabetes exhibits provincial variation.

Interpretation

Our study identifies a geospatial disparity in dementia prevalence and risk factor effects across China's provinces, with high-high and low-low clusters in some northern and southern provinces, respectively. The findings emphasize the need for targeted strategies, such as addressing hypertension and hearing impairment, in specific regions for more effective dementia prevention and treatment.

Funding

National Science Foundation of China/the Economic and Social Research Council, UK Research and Innovation joint call: Understanding and Addressing Health and Social Challenges for Ageing in the UK and China. UK-China Health And Social Challenges Ageing Project (UKCHASCAP): present and future burden of dementia, and policy responses (grant number 72061137003, ES/T014377/1).

CiGNN: A Causality-Informed and Graph Neural Network Based Framework for Cuffless Continuous Blood Pressure Estimation

Causalityholds profound potentials to dissipate confusion and improve accuracy in cuffless continuous blood pressure (BP) estimation, an area often neglected in current research. In this study, we propose a two-stage framework, CiGNN, that seamlessly integrates causality and graph neural network (GNN) for cuffless continuous BP estimation. The first stage concentrates on the generation of a causal graph between BP and wearable features from the the perspective of causal inference, so as to identify features that are causally related to BP variations. This stage is pivotal for the identification of novel causal features from the causal graph beyond pulse transit time (PTT). We found these causal features empower better tracking in BP changes compared to PTT. For the second stage, a spatio-temporal GNN (STGNN) is utilized to learn from the causal graph obtained from the first stage. The STGNN can exploit both the spatial information within the causal graph and temporal information from beat-by-beat cardiac signals for refined cuffless continuous BP estimation. We evaluated the proposed method with three datasets that include 305 subjects (102 hypertensive patients) with age ranging from 20-90 and BP at different levels, with the continuous Finapres BP as references. The mean absolute difference (MAD) for estimated systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were 3.77 mmHg and 2.52 mmHg, respectively, which outperformed comparison methods. In all cases including subjects with different age groups, while doing various maneuvers that induces BP changes at different levels and with or without hypertension, the proposed CiGNN method demonstrates superior performance for cuffless continuous BP estimation. These findings suggest that the proposed CiGNN is a promising approach in elucidating the causal mechanisms of cuffless BP estimation and can substantially enhance the precision of BP measurement.

Dementia incidence trend in England and Wales, 2002-19, and projection for dementia burden to 2040: analysis of data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

BACKGROUND

Dementia incidence declined in many high-income countries in the 2000s, but evidence on the post-2010 trend is scarce. We aimed to analyse the temporal trend in England and Wales between 2002 and 2019, considering bias and non-linearity.

METHODS

Population-based panel data representing adults aged 50 years and older from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were linked to the mortality register across wave 1 (2002-03) to wave 9 (2018-19) (90 073 person observations). Standard criteria based on cognitive and functional impairment were used to ascertain incident dementia. Crude incidence rates were determined in seven overlapping initially dementia-free subcohorts each followed up for 4 years (ie, 2002-06, 2004-08, 2006-10, 2008-12, 2010-14, 2012-16, and 2014-18). We examined the temporal trend of dementia incidence according to age, sex, and educational attainment. We estimated the trend of dementia incidence adjusted by age and sex with Cox proportional hazards and multistate models. Restricted cubic splines allowed for potential non-linearity in the time trend. A Markov model was used to project future dementia burden considering the estimated incidence trend.

FINDINGS

Incidence rate standardised by age and sex declined from 2002 to 2010 (from 10·7 to 8·6 per 1000 person-years), then increased from 2010 to 2019 (from 8·6 to 11·3 per 1000 person-years). Adjusting for age and sex, and accounting for missing dementia cases due to death, estimated dementia incidence declined by 28·8% from 2002 to 2008 (incidence rate ratio 0·71, 95% CI 0·58-0·88), and increased by 25·2% from 2008 to 2016 (1·25, 1·03-1·54). The group with lower educational attainment had a smaller decline in dementia incidence from 2002 to 2008 and a greater increase after 2008. If the upward incidence trend continued, there would be 1·7 million (1·62-1·75) dementia cases in England and Wales by 2040, 70% more than previously forecast.

INTERPRETATION

Dementia incidence might no longer be declining in England and Wales. If the upward trend since 2008 continues, along with population ageing, the burden on health and social care will be large.

FUNDING

UK Economic and Social Research Council.