SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE APTITUDE TO LATE MATERNITY ON THE ISLAND OF SARDINIA

Association of endemic goitre and exceptional longevity in Sardinia: evidence from an ecological study

This study aims to test the hypothesis that a high prevalence of endemic goitre, considered as a proxy measure for subclinically reduced thyroid function in the population, is geographically associated with exceptional longevity. Using historical data available for 377 Sardinian municipalities in the first half of the twentieth century, we performed an ecological study to investigate the geographic distribution of goitre and its spatial association with demographic indicators of population longevity. This analysis was conducted by using both conventional ordinary least square and geographically weighted regression models to take into account spatial autocorrelation and included other longevity-associated factors previously identified in Sardinia. The spatial analysis revealed that the goitre rate (p < 0.0001), the proportion of inhabitants involved in pastoralism (p = 0.016), the terrain inclination (p = 0.008), and the distance from the workplace as a proxy for physical activity (p = 0.023) were consistently associated with population longevity at an aggregated level in the 377 municipalities. Within the limits of an ecological study design, our findings support the existence of a significant association between high goitre prevalence and increased probability to survive into old age. The present study confirms previous results and is consistent with animal studies and epidemiological surveys in other long-lived areas known as Blue Zones. Potential mechanisms underlying this association need to be further investigated.

Fertility History, Children's Gender, and Post-Reproductive Survival in a Longevous Population

The question of whether mothers' fertility history influences their post-reproductive survival has been addressed frequently in the scientific literature. Using data from Villagrande Strisaili, Sardinia, where longevity is higher than anywhere else in Europe, we analyzed the relationship between the fertility pattern of mothers who survived past age 50 (n = 539) and their post-reproductive lifespan. We find that, after adjustment for potential confounders (mothers' birth cohort, survival of spouse), the mothers who on average delivered their children later displayed a reduced mortality risk (‒2.9 percent for each additional year), supporting previously reported findings. We also find that a male-skewed offspring ratio was associated with decreased mortality risk of mothers, with longer survival of mothers who delivered their sons above age 35 (p = 0.005), a result not found for daughters. So far, no biological explanation has been suggested for the positive effect of delivering sons later in life. We conjecture that in our dataset stronger nonbiological factors such as gender-specific sociocultural and economic factors may have masked the negative effect reported in other populations, for which a biological explanation was proposed.

Consanguinity and late fertility: spatial analysis reveals positive association patterns

The role of consanguinity on human complex traits is an important and controversial issue. In this work we focused on the Sardinian population and examined the effect of consanguineous unions on late female fertility. During the last century the island has been characterized by a high incidence of marriages between relatives, favoured by socio economic conditions and geographical isolation, and by high fertility despite a widespread tendency to delay reproduction. Through spatial analysis techniques, we explored the geographical heterogeneity of consanguinity and late fertility, and identified in Central-Eastern Sardinia a common area with an excess of both traits, where the traits are positively associated. We found that their association did not significantly affect women's fertility in the area, despite the expected negative role of both traits. Intriguingly, this critical zone corresponds well to areas reported by previous studies as being peculiar for a high frequency of centenarians and for lower risk in pregnancy outcome. The proposed approach can be generally exploited to identify target populations on which socioeconomic, biodemographic and genetic data can be collected at the individual level, and deeper analyses carried out to disentangle the determinants of complex biological traits and to investigate their association.