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Xu Z, Graves PM, Lau CL, Clements A, Geard N, Glass K. GEOFIL: A spatially-explicit agent-based modelling framework for predicting the long-term transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis in American Samoa. Epidemics 2018; 27:19-27. [PMID: 30611745 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.12.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2018] [Revised: 12/22/2018] [Accepted: 12/28/2018] [Indexed: 10/27/2022] Open
Abstract
In this study, a spatially-explicit agent-based modelling framework GEOFIL was developed to predict lymphatic filariasis (LF) transmission dynamics in American Samoa. GEOFIL included individual-level information on age, gender, disease status, household location, household members, workplace/school location and colleagues/schoolmates at each time step during the simulation. In American Samoa, annual mass drug administration from 2000 to 2006 successfully reduced LF prevalence dramatically. However, GEOFIL predicted continual increase in microfilaraemia prevalence in the absence of further intervention. Evidence from seroprevalence and transmission assessment surveys conducted from 2010 to 2016 indicated a resurgence of LF in American Samoa, corroborating GEOFIL's predictions. The microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence in 6-7-yo children were much lower than in the overall population. Mosquito biting rates were found to be a critical determinant of infection risk. Transmission hotspots are likely to disappear with lower biting rates. GEOFIL highlights current knowledge gaps, such as data on mosquito abundance, biting rates and within-host parasite dynamics, which are important for improving the accuracy of model predictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhijing Xu
- Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, Australia.
| | - Patricia M Graves
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, Division of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Australia
| | - Colleen L Lau
- Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, Australia
| | | | - Nicholas Geard
- School of Computing and Information Systems, The University of Melbourne, Australia; The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The University of Melbourne, Australia; Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Australia
| | - Kathryn Glass
- Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, Australia
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McCall JW, Hodgkins E, Varloud M, Mansour A, DiCosty U. Blocking the transmission of heartworm (Dirofilaria immitis) to mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti) by weekly exposure for one month to microfilaremic dogs treated once topically with dinotefuran-permethrin-pyriproxyfen. Parasit Vectors 2017; 10:511. [PMID: 29143651 PMCID: PMC5688439 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-017-2439-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Background This study assessed the influence of a topical ectoparasiticide (dinotefuran-permethrin-pyriproxyfen, DPP, Vectra®3D, Ceva Animal Health) on the acquisition of heartworm microfilariae by mosquitoes exposed to microfilaremic dogs weekly for 1 month. Methods Six beagle dogs (9.2 ± 1.6 kg body weight) infected with Dirofilaria immitis were allocated to two groups of three dogs: an untreated control group and a DPP-treated group. Dogs were treated on Day 0 and exposed under sedation for 1 h to 80 ± 20 unfed Aedes aegypti. Each dog was exposed to mosquitoes released into mosquito-proof containers on Days −7 (pretreatment), 7, 14, 21 and 28. Up to 20 engorged mosquitoes were aspirated from the cage as soon as they were blood-fed. They were dissected and the blood from each midgut was stained for a microfilaria (MF) count. After each exposure, mosquitoes were classified as live, moribund or dead and engorged or nonengorged. The number of dead mosquitoes was recorded daily for 16 days, when the live mosquitoes were dissected to count the infective third-stage larvae (L3). Results Prior to treatment, 95% of the engorged mosquitoes in both groups had MF. After treatment, engorgement rates for the treated group were 0%, 2.3%, 2.7% and 2.2% for Days 7, 14, 21 and 28, respectively, with anti-feeding efficacy (repellency) of 100%, 98.0%, 95.8% and 97.0%, respectively. A total of 22 mosquitoes fed on treated dogs; most of them were dead within 24 h, and all were dead within 72 h. Only 2 unfed mosquitoes exposed to treated dogs survived the incubation period and no L3 were found in them. A total of 121 of the 132 (91.6%) surviving mosquitoes that had engorged on untreated dogs had an average of 12.3 L3 per mosquito (range, 0-39). Conclusions DPP was more than 95% effective in inhibiting blood-feeding and killing both engorged and nonengorged mosquitoes exposed weekly to microfilaremic dogs for 28 days after treatment. Treatment with DPP was completely effective in killing the few mosquitoes that fed on the treated dogs before they lived long enough for the microfilariae to develop to L3 and, consequently, was completely effective in blocking the transmission of L3 to other animals. DPP can break the life cycle of D. immitis and prevent infected dogs and infected mosquitoes from being effective reservoirs and can slow down the spread of heartworms, even those resistant to macrocyclic lactone preventives.
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Affiliation(s)
- John W McCall
- TRS Labs, 215 Paradise Boulevard, 30607, Athens, GA, USA.
| | - Elizabeth Hodgkins
- Ceva Santé Animale, 10 Avenue de la ballastière, 33500, Libourne, France
| | | | | | - Utami DiCosty
- TRS Labs, 215 Paradise Boulevard, 30607, Athens, GA, USA
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Cornet S, Gandon S, Rivero A. Patterns of phenoloxidase activity in insecticide resistant and susceptible mosquitoes differ between laboratory-selected and wild-caught individuals. Parasit Vectors 2013; 6:315. [PMID: 24499651 PMCID: PMC3819646 DOI: 10.1186/1756-3305-6-315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2013] [Accepted: 10/23/2013] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Insecticide resistance has the potential to alter vector immune competence and consequently affect the transmission of diseases. Methods Using both laboratory isogenic strains and field-caught Culex pipiens mosquitoes, we investigated the effects of insecticide resistance on an important component of the mosquito immune system: the phenoloxidase (PO) activity. As infection risk varies dramatically with the age and sex of mosquitoes, allocation to PO immunity was quantified across different stages of the mosquito life cycle. Results Our results were consistent in showing that larvae have a higher PO activity than adults, females have a higher PO activity than males, and PO activity declines with adult age. We obtained, however, a marked discrepancy between laboratory and field-collected mosquitoes on the effect of insecticide resistance on PO activity. In the laboratory selected strains we found evidence of strong interactions between insecticide resistance and the age and sex of mosquitoes. In particular, 7 and 14 day old esterase-resistant adult females and acetylcholine-esterase resistant males had significantly higher PO activities than their susceptible counterparts. No such effects were, however, apparent in field-caught mosquitoes. Conclusions Combined, the field and laboratory-based approaches employed in this study provide a powerful test of the effect of insecticide resistance on PO-mediated immunity. The use of laboratory-selected insecticide-resistant strains is still the most widely used method to investigate the pleiotropic effects of insecticide resistance. Our results suggest that the outcome of these laboratory-selected mosquitoes must be interpreted with caution and, whenever possible, compared with mosquitoes captured from the field.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stéphane Cornet
- Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Ecologie, Génétique, Evolution et Contrôle (MIVEGEC), UMR CNRS 5290-IRD 224-UM1-UM2, Montpellier, France.
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Slater HC, Gambhir M, Parham PE, Michael E. Modelling co-infection with malaria and lymphatic filariasis. PLoS Comput Biol 2013; 9:e1003096. [PMID: 23785271 PMCID: PMC3681634 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2012] [Accepted: 04/27/2013] [Indexed: 10/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Malaria and lymphatic filariasis (LF) continue to cause a considerable public health burden globally and are co-endemic in many regions of sub-Saharan Africa. These infections are transmitted by the same mosquito species which raises important questions about optimal vector control strategies in co-endemic regions, as well as the effect of the presence of each infection on endemicity of the other; there is currently little consensus on the latter. The need for comprehensive modelling studies to address such questions is therefore significant, yet very few have been undertaken to date despite the recognised explanatory power of reliable dynamic mathematical models. Here, we develop a malaria-LF co-infection modelling framework that accounts for two key interactions between these infections, namely the increase in vector mortality as LF mosquito prevalence increases and the antagonistic Th1/Th2 immune response that occurs in co-infected hosts. We consider the crucial interplay between these interactions on the resulting endemic prevalence when introducing each infection in regions where the other is already endemic (e.g. due to regional environmental change), and the associated timescale for such changes, as well as effects on the basic reproduction number R₀ of each disease. We also highlight potential perverse effects of vector controls on human infection prevalence in co-endemic regions, noting that understanding such effects is critical in designing optimal integrated control programmes. Hence, as well as highlighting where better data are required to more reliably address such questions, we provide an important framework that will form the basis of future scenario analysis tools used to plan and inform policy decisions on intervention measures in different transmission settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah C. Slater
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Manoj Gambhir
- MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Paul E. Parham
- Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Edwin Michael
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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Churcher TS, Dawes EJ, Sinden RE, Christophides GK, Koella JC, Basáñez MG. Population biology of malaria within the mosquito: density-dependent processes and potential implications for transmission-blocking interventions. Malar J 2010; 9:311. [PMID: 21050427 PMCID: PMC2988043 DOI: 10.1186/1475-2875-9-311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2010] [Accepted: 11/04/2010] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The combined effects of multiple density-dependent, regulatory processes may have an important impact on the growth and stability of a population. In a malaria model system, it has been shown that the progression of Plasmodium berghei through Anopheles stephensi and the survival of the mosquito both depend non-linearly on parasite density. These processes regulating the development of the malaria parasite within the mosquito may influence the success of transmission-blocking interventions (TBIs) currently under development. Methods An individual-based stochastic mathematical model is used to investigate the combined impact of these multiple regulatory processes and examine how TBIs, which target different parasite life-stages within the mosquito, may influence overall parasite transmission. Results The best parasite molecular targets will vary between different epidemiological settings. Interventions that reduce ookinete density beneath a threshold level are likely to have auxiliary benefits, as transmission would be further reduced by density-dependent processes that restrict sporogonic development at low parasite densities. TBIs which reduce parasite density but fail to clear the parasite could cause a modest increase in transmission by increasing the number of infectious bites made by a mosquito during its lifetime whilst failing to sufficiently reduce its infectivity. Interventions with a higher variance in efficacy will therefore tend to cause a greater reduction in overall transmission than a TBI with a more uniform effectiveness. Care should be taken when interpreting these results as parasite intensity values in natural parasite-vector combinations of human malaria are likely to be significantly lower than those in this model system. Conclusions A greater understanding of the development of the malaria parasite within the mosquito is required to fully evaluate the impact of TBIs. If parasite-induced vector mortality influenced the population dynamics of Plasmodium species infecting humans in malaria endemic regions, it would be important to quantify the variability and duration of TBI efficacy to ensure that community benefits of control measures are not overestimated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas S Churcher
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK.
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Paily KP, Hoti SL, Das PK. A review of the complexity of biology of lymphatic filarial parasites. J Parasit Dis 2009; 33:3-12. [PMID: 23129882 PMCID: PMC3454129 DOI: 10.1007/s12639-009-0005-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2009] [Accepted: 12/01/2009] [Indexed: 10/19/2022] Open
Abstract
There are about five more common, including Wuchereria bancrofti and Brugia malayi, and four less common filarial parasites infecting human. Genetic analysis of W. bancrofti populations in India showed that two strains of the species are prevalent in the country. The adult filarial parasites are tissue specific in the human host and their embryonic stage, called microfilariae (mf), are found in the blood or skin of the host, depending upon the species of the parasite. Three genetically determined physiological races exist in W. bancrofti and B. malayi, based on the microfilarial periodicity. They are the nocturnally periodic, nocturnally subperiodic and diurnally subperiodic forms. The susceptibility of a mosquito species to filarial infection depends on various factors, which could be genetic, physiological or physical. Survival analysis of Culex quinquefasciatus infected with W. bancrofti showed that the parasite load in the mosquito is a risk factor of vector survival. The extrinsic life cycle of the parasite is initiated when the mf are ingested by a mosquito vector during feeding on the host blood. On maturity, most of the infective L3 stage larvae migrate to the head and proboscis of the mosquito to get transmitted to the mammalian host during subsequent feeding. They develop to the adult L5 stage and the period of development and the longevity of the parasites varies according to the species of the nematode and the mammalian host. The rate of production of mf by the adult female was found to be stable at least for a period of five years. The life span of the mf has some influence on the dynamics of transmission of filariasis. Recent studies show that the endosymbiont, Wolbachia, plays an important role in the survival of filarial parasites. The possibility of in vitro and in vivo culture of filarial parasites is also reviewed.
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Affiliation(s)
- K. P. Paily
- Vector Control Research Centre (Indian Council of Medical Research), Indira Nagar, Pondicherry, 605 006 India
| | - S. L. Hoti
- Vector Control Research Centre (Indian Council of Medical Research), Indira Nagar, Pondicherry, 605 006 India
| | - P. K. Das
- Vector Control Research Centre (Indian Council of Medical Research), Indira Nagar, Pondicherry, 605 006 India
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Dawes EJ, Churcher TS, Zhuang S, Sinden RE, Basáñez MG. Anopheles mortality is both age- and Plasmodium-density dependent: implications for malaria transmission. Malar J 2009; 8:228. [PMID: 19822012 PMCID: PMC2770541 DOI: 10.1186/1475-2875-8-228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 80] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2009] [Accepted: 10/12/2009] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Daily mortality is an important determinant of a vector's ability to transmit pathogens. Original simplifying assumptions in malaria transmission models presume vector mortality is independent of age, infection status and parasite load. Previous studies illustrate conflicting evidence as to the importance of Plasmodium-induced vector mortality, but very few studies to date have considered the effect of infection density on mosquito survival. Methods A series of three experiments were conducted, each consisting of four cages of 400-1,000 Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes fed on blood infected with different Plasmodium berghei ookinete densities per microlitre of blood. Twice daily the numbers of dead mosquitoes in each group were recorded, and on alternate days a sample of live mosquitoes from each group were dissected to determine parasite density in both midgut and salivary glands. Results Survival analyses indicate that mosquito mortality is both age- and infection intensity-dependent. Mosquitoes experienced an initially high, partly feeding-associated, mortality rate, which declined to a minimum before increasing with mosquito age and parasite intake. As a result, the life expectancy of a mosquito is shown to be dependent on both insect age and the density of Plasmodium infection. Conclusion These results contribute to understanding in greater detail the processes that influence sporogony in the mosquito, indicate the impact that parasite density could have on malaria transmission dynamics, and have implications for the design, development, and evaluation of transmission-blocking strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma J Dawes
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UK.
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Michael E, Snow LC, Bockarie MJ. Ecological meta-analysis of density-dependent processes in the transmission of lymphatic filariasis: survival of infected vectors. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2009; 46:873-880. [PMID: 19645292 PMCID: PMC2747083 DOI: 10.1603/033.046.0420] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
The survival rate of infected vectors represents one of the fundamental components that influence the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases. Despite the occurrence of a number of studies investigating mosquito survival after infection with filarial worms, there remains conflicting evidence from both laboratory and field experiments as to the existence and mechanism for parasite-induced mortality among filarial mosquitoes. Here, we used a mixed effects meta-analytical framework to combine the data from all available vector-human host blood feeding experiments to evaluate the evidence for the impact of parasite load on the mortality rates of the three major lymphatic filariasis transmitting mosquito genera, Culex, Aedes, and Anopheles mosquitoes, over the extrinsic incubation period of parasitic infection. The results show that, despite the application of this approach, or in the case of Anopheles using a convention fixed effects logistic regression analysis supplemented with additional survival analysis of longitudinal data, no strong association between mortality rate and microfilariae (mf) uptake for either of the three mosquito genera is apparent in the combined data. Instead, a key finding is that study effects played a more crucial role in determining the levels of mortality observed in these experimental studies. This was most revealing in the case of Culex, given that the largest single study in terms of both the number of data points and range of mf intensities, in contrast to smaller studies, showed a significant positive association between mf intensity and mortality, indicating that in this genus at least, the detrimental effect of infection may be manifested only at the highest mf intakes. Although no density dependence in vector mortality was also observed for Aedes, possibly because of the use of restricted human mf intensity range in previous studies, an intriguing finding was that a significantly higher overall mortality was observed for this genus over mfintake ranges that produced much less corresponding mortality in Culex and Anopheles. The results also indicate that currently very little can be said about the survival rate of Anopheles mosquitoes infected with filarial worms because of the striking paucity of data for this genus. Further studies, using standardized methods and covering an appropriate range of mf uptake intensities and using study frameworks that allow the design and comparison of data from both experimental and field experiments, are clearly indicated if we are to reliably quantify the likely effect of filarial infection on vector survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Edwin Michael
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St. Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom.
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Lefèvre T, Thomas F. Behind the scene, something else is pulling the strings: Emphasizing parasitic manipulation in vector-borne diseases. INFECTION GENETICS AND EVOLUTION 2008; 8:504-19. [PMID: 17588825 DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2007.05.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 133] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2007] [Revised: 05/13/2007] [Accepted: 05/17/2007] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Abstract
Merging the field of epidemiology with those of evolutionary and behavioural ecology can generate considerable fundamental knowledge, as well as help to guide public health policies. An attempt is made here to integrate these disciplines by focusing on parasitic manipulation in vector-borne diseases. Parasitic manipulation is a fascinating strategy of transmission which occurs when a parasite alters phenotypic trait(s) of its host in a way that enhances its probability of transmission. Vector-borne parasites are responsible for many of the most harmful diseases affecting humans, and thus represent public health priority. It has been shown for several decades that viruses, bacteria and protozoa can alter important features of their arthropod vector and vertebrate host in a way that increases their probability of transmission. Here, we review these changes, including, the feeding behaviour, survival and immune system of the vector, as well as attraction, defensive behaviour, blood characteristics and immune system of the vertebrate host. Based on the classic measure of vector-borne disease transmission R(0), additional changes, such as, vertebrate host choice by infected vectors or parasite development duration in the vector are expected. Reported or expected phenotypic changes are discussed in terms of costs and benefits to the parasite, its vector, and the vertebrate host. Introducing the parasitic manipulation concept into vector-borne diseases clearly highlights fruitful avenues not only for fundamental research, but also for developing strategies for disease control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thierry Lefèvre
- GEMI, UMR CNRS-IRD 2724, IRD, 911, av. Agropolis BP 64501, 34394 Montpellier Cedex 5, France.
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Wetten S, Collins RC, Vieira JC, Marshall C, Shelley AJ, Basáñez MG. Vector competence for Onchocerca volvulus in the Simulium (Notolepria) exiguum complex: cytoforms or density-dependence? Acta Trop 2007; 103:58-68. [PMID: 17618859 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2007.05.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2006] [Revised: 04/24/2007] [Accepted: 05/20/2007] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Although Simulium exiguum Roubaud s.l. is present in all South American onchocerciasis foci, it is a significant vector only in Colombia and Ecuador. This variable vectorial role has been attributed to sibling forms that differ in their ability to allow Onchocerca volvulus larval development and their preferred bloodmeal hosts. Here we evaluate the relationship between parasite availability in human skin and infective larval output measured as (a) number of L3 larvae and (b) proportion of surviving flies with L3s in the Cayapa form of S. exiguum s.l. from Ecuador, taking into account the variation in counts of microfilariae (mf) from 6skin snips/patient. Comparisons with other cytoforms (Aguarico, Bucay and Quevedo, absent in the main Ecuadorean onchocerciasis foci) are made to suggest the relative roles of intrinsic susceptibility or co-adaptation versus density-dependent parasite uptake. A nonlinear (limitation) relationship, characterised by an initial rapid increase in infective larvae with increasing mf skin density was confirmed for the Cayapa cytoform. The proportion of infective Cayapa flies increased and saturated rapidly (reaching 80% for >/= 20mf/mg skin). After adjusting for density dependence, non-Cayapa cytoforms exhibited significantly lower L3 loads and proportions of infective flies for a given mf skin density than Cayapa flies, indicating that the susceptibility of those cytoforms is intrinsically lower than that of the Cayapa cytoform and that the differences observed are not due to density-dependent effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sally Wetten
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine (St. Mary's Campus), Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
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Stolk WA, de Vlas SJ, Habbema JDF. Advances and challenges in predicting the impact of lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes by mathematical modelling. FILARIA JOURNAL 2006; 5:5. [PMID: 16569234 PMCID: PMC1448203 DOI: 10.1186/1475-2883-5-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2005] [Accepted: 03/28/2006] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Mathematical simulation models for transmission and control of lymphatic filariasis are useful tools for studying the prospects of lymphatic filariasis elimination. Two simulation models are currently being used. The first, EPIFIL, is a population-based, deterministic model that simulates average trends in infection intensity over time. The second, LYMFASIM, is an individual-based, stochastic model that simulates acquisition and loss of infection for each individual in the simulated population, taking account of individual characteristics. For settings like Pondicherry (India), where Wuchereria bancrofti infection is transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus, the models give similar predictions of the coverage and number of treatment rounds required to bring microfilaraemia prevalence below a level of 0.5%. Nevertheless, published estimates of the duration of mass treatment required for elimination differed, due to the use of different indicators for elimination (EPIFIL: microfilaraemia prevalence < 0.5% after the last treatment; LYMFASIM: reduction of microfilaraemia prevalence to zero, within 40 years after the start of mass treatment). The two main challenges for future modelling work are: 1) quantification and validation of the models for other regions, for investigation of elimination prospects in situations with other vector-parasite combinations and endemicity levels than in Pondicherry; 2) application of the models to address a range of programmatic issues related to the monitoring and evaluation of ongoing control programmes. The models' usefulness could be enhanced by several extensions; inclusion of different diagnostic tests and natural history of disease in the models is of particular relevance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wilma A Stolk
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, P.O. Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Sake J de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, P.O. Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - J Dik F Habbema
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, P.O. Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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Dreyer G, Addiss D, Norões J. Does longevity of adult Wuchereria bancrofti increase with decreasing intensity of parasite transmission? Insights from clinical observations. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 2005; 99:883-92. [PMID: 16165175 DOI: 10.1016/j.trstmh.2005.05.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2005] [Revised: 05/05/2005] [Accepted: 05/26/2005] [Indexed: 10/25/2022] Open
Abstract
To interrupt transmission of Wuchereria bancrofti, a parasite that causes lymphatic filariasis, mass treatment of at-risk populations with antifilarial drugs is recommended for 4-6 years, the minimum estimated adult worm lifespan. Factors associated with adult worm longevity are unknown. In Recife, Brazil, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of 57 men whose adult W. bancrofti were not sensitive to diethylcarbamazine and who were followed with semi-annual physical examinations (to detect intrascrotal nodules, indicative of adult worm death) and ultrasound examinations (to detect the 'filaria dance sign' (FDS), indicative of living adult worms). After 5 years, the FDS remained detectable in 10 (24.4%) of 41 adult worm nests in 25 men from areas of high filariasis transmission intensity and in 30 (90.9%) of 33 nests in 32 men from areas of low transmission (P<0.001). New nodules and adult worm nests were detected only in men from high-transmission areas. Of 30 men who were microfilaria-positive initially and whose FDS remained detectable after 5 years of follow-up, 19 (63.3%) remained microfilaria-positive in 5 ml blood (mean density, 0.4 per ml). In conclusion, survival of adult W. bancrofti is inversely associated with transmission intensity. These findings have implications for filariasis elimination and research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gerusa Dreyer
- Centro de Pesquisas Aggeu Magalhães, FIOCRUZ, and NEPAF, Hospital das Clínicas, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Av. Prof. Moraes Rego s/n, Cidade Universitária, CEP 50670-420, Recife PE, Brazil.
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