Modelling transmission, immunity and disease of Haemophilus influenzae type b in a structured population

Cost-effectiveness of a potential vaccine candidate for Haemophilus influenzae serotype 'a'

The preceding decade has witnessed the emergence of severe community-acquired acute infections caused by Haemophilus influenzae serotype a (Hia), with alarming incidence rates in North America, particularly among indigenous populations. The remarkable success of Hib conjugate vaccine over the past 20 years signify the development of an Hia vaccine candidate as a prevention measure to reduce the incidence of invasive Hia disease. However, quantifications of the long-term epidemiologic and economic impacts of vaccination are needed to inform decision on investment in Hia vaccine development and immunization programs. We sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of an Hia vaccine with a similar routine infant immunization schedules currently in practice for Hib in Canada. We developed and parameterized an agent-based simulation model using age-specific incidence rates reported for Nunavut, a Canadian territory with predominantly aboriginal populations. Our results, based on statistical analyses of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, show that an Hia conjugate vaccine is highly cost-effective. Sustaining an immunization program with vaccine coverages of 77% for primary series and 93% for booster dose over a 10-year period reduces the incidence of invasive disease by 63.8% on average from 9.97 to 3.61 cases, per 100,000 population. The overall costs of disease management in year 10 are reduced by 53.4% from CDN $1.863 million (95% CI: $1.229-$2.519 M) to CDN $0.868 million (95% CI: $0.627-$1.120 M). The findings suggest an important role for a conjugate vaccine in managing Hia disease as a growing public health threat.

Modelling the effects of booster dose vaccination schedules and recommendations for public health immunization programs: the case of Haemophilus influenzae serotype b

Background

Haemophilus influenzae serotype b (Hib) has yet to be eliminated despite the implementation of routine infant immunization programs. There is no consensus regarding the number of primary vaccine doses and an optimal schedule for the booster dose. We sought to evaluate the effect of a booster dose after receiving the primary series on the long-term disease incidence.

Methods

A stochastic model of Hib transmission dynamics was constructed to compare the long-term impact of a booster vaccination and different booster schedules after receiving the primary series on the incidence of carriage and symptomatic disease. We parameterized the model with available estimates for the efficacy of Hib conjugate vaccine and durations of both vaccine-induced and naturally acquired immunity.

Results

We found that administering a booster dose substantially reduced the population burden of Hib disease compared to the scenario of only receiving the primary series. Comparing the schedules, the incidence of carriage for a 2-year delay (on average) in booster vaccination was comparable or lower than that observed for the scenario of booster dose within 1 year after primary series. The temporal reduction of symptomatic disease was similar in the two booster schedules, suggesting no superiority of one schedule over the other in terms of reducing the incidence of symptomatic disease.

Conclusions

The findings underscore the importance of a booster vaccination for continued decline of Hib incidence. When the primary series provides a high level of protection temporarily, delaying the booster dose (still within the average duration of protection conferred by the primary series) may be beneficial to maintain longer-term protection levels and decelerate the decline of herd immunity in the population.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-017-4714-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Modelling the impact of vaccination on curtailing Haemophilus influenzae serotype 'a'

Haemophilus influenzae serotype a (Hia) is a human-restricted bacterial pathogen transmitted via direct contacts with an infectious individual. Currently, there is no vaccine available for prevention of Hia, and the disease is treated with antibiotics upon diagnosis. With ongoing efforts for the development of an anti-Hia protein-polysaccharide conjugated vaccine, we sought to investigate the effect of vaccination on curtailing Hia infection. We present the first stochastic model of Hia transmission and control dynamics, and parameterize it using available estimates in the literature. Since both naturally acquired and vaccine-induced immunity wane with time, model simulations show three important results. First, vaccination of only newborns cannot eliminate the pathogen from the population, even when a booster program is implemented with a high coverage. Second, achieving and maintaining a sufficiently high level of herd immunity for pathogen elimination requires vaccination of susceptible individuals in addition to a high vaccination coverage of newborns. Third, for a low vaccination rate of susceptible individuals, a high coverage of booster dose may be needed to raise the level of herd immunity for Hia eradication. Our findings highlight the importance of vaccination and timely boosting of the individual׳s immunity within the expected duration of vaccine-induced protection against Hia. When an anti-Hia vaccine becomes available, enhanced surveillance of Hia incidence and herd immunity could help determine vaccination rates and timelines for booster doses necessary to eliminate Hia from affected populations.

Choosing between 7-, 10- and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in childhood: a review of economic evaluations (2006-2014)

BACKGROUND

Seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV7) have been used in children for more than a decade. Given the observed increase in disease caused by pneumococcal serotypes not covered by PCV7, an increasing number of countries are switching from 7-valent to 10- and 13-valent PCVs ("PCV10" and "PCV13"). Economic evaluations are important tools to inform decisions and price negotiations to make such a switch.

OBJECTIVE

This review aims to provide a critical assessment of economic evaluations involving PCV10 or PCV13, published since 2006.

METHODS

We searched Scopus, ISI Web of Science (SCI and SSCI) and Pubmed to retrieve, select and review relevant studies, which were archived between 1st January 2006 and 31st January 2014. The review protocol involved standard extraction of assumptions, methods, results and sponsorships from the original studies.

RESULTS

Sixty-three economic evaluations on PCVs published since January 2006 were identified. About half of these evaluated PCV10 and/or PCV13, the subject of this review. At current prices, both PCV13 and PCV10 were likely judged preferable to PCV7. However, the combined uncertainty related to price differences, burden of disease, vaccine effectiveness, herd and serotype replacement effects determine the preference base for either PCV10 or PCV13. The pivotal assumptions and results of these analyses also depended on which manufacturer sponsored the study.

CONCLUSION

A more thorough exploration of uncertainty should be made in future analyses on this subject, as we lack understanding to adequately model herd and serotype replacement effects to reliably predict the population impact of PCVs. The introduction of further improved PCVs in an environment of evolving antibiotic resistance and under the continuing influence of previous PCVs implies that the complexity and data requirements for relevant analyses will further increase. Decision makers using these analyses should not just rely on an analysis from a single manufacturer.

Pneumococcal transmission and disease in silico: a microsimulation model of the indirect effects of vaccination

Background

The degree and time frame of indirect effects of vaccination (serotype replacement and herd immunity) are key determinants in assessing the net effectiveness of vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in control of pneumococcal disease. Using modelling, we aimed to quantify these effects and their dependence on coverage of vaccination and the vaccine's efficacy against susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage.

Methods and Findings

We constructed an individual-based simulation model that explores the effects of large-scale PCV programmes and applied it in a developed country setting (Finland). A population structure with transmission of carriage taking place within relevant mixing groups (families, day care groups, schools and neighbourhoods) was considered in order to properly assess the dependency of herd immunity on coverage of vaccination and vaccine efficacy against carriage. Issues regarding potential serotype replacement were addressed by employing a novel competition structure between multiple pneumococcal serotypes. Model parameters were calibrated from pre-vaccination data about the age-specific carriage prevalence and serotype distribution. The model predicts that elimination of vaccine-type carriage and disease among those vaccinated and, due to a substantial herd effect, also among the general population takes place within 5–10 years since the onset of a PCV programme with high (90%) coverage of vaccination and moderate (50%) vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage. A near-complete replacement of vaccine-type carriage by non-vaccine-type carriage occurs within the same time frame.

Conclusions

The changed patterns in pneumococcal carriage after PCV vaccination predicted by the model are unequivocal. The overall effect on disease incidence depends crucially on the magnitude of age- and serotype-specific case-to-carrier ratios of the remaining serotypes relative to those of the vaccine types. Thus the availability of reliable data on the incidence of both pneumococcal carriage and disease is essential in assessing the net effectiveness of PCV vaccination in a given epidemiological setting.

Understanding and Governing Public Health Risks by Modeling

Increase in the use and development of computational tools to govern public health risks invites us to study their benefits and limitations. To analyze how risk is perceived and expressed through these tools is relevant to risk theory. This chapter clarifies the different concepts of risk, contrasting especially the mathematically expressed ones with culturally informed notions, which address a broader view on risk. I will suggest that a fruitful way to contextualize computational tools, such mathematical models in risk assessment is “analytics of risk,” which ties together the technological, epistemological, and political dimensions of the process of governance of risk. I will clarify the development of mathematical modeling techniques through their use in infectious disease epidemiology. Epidemiological modeling functions as a form of “risk calculation,” which provides predictions of the infectious outbreak in question. These calculations help direct and design preventive actions toward the health outcomes of populations. This chapter analyzes two cases in which modeling methods are used for explanation-based and scenario-building predictions in order to anticipate the risks of infections caused by Haemophilus influenzae type b bacteria and A(H1N1) pandemic influenza virus. I will address an interesting tension that arises when model-based estimates exemplify the population-level reasoning of public health risks but has restricted capacity to address risks on individual level. Analyzing this tension will lead to a fuller account to understand the benefits and limitations of computational tools in the governance of public health risks.

A mechanistic model of infection: why duration and intensity of contacts should be included in models of disease spread

BACKGROUND

Mathematical models and simulations of disease spread often assume a constant per-contact transmission probability. This assumption ignores the heterogeneity in transmission probabilities, e.g. due to the varying intensity and duration of potentially contagious contacts. Ignoring such heterogeneities might lead to erroneous conclusions from simulation results. In this paper, we show how a mechanistic model of disease transmission differs from this commonly used assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability.

METHODS

We present an exposure-based, mechanistic model of disease transmission that reflects heterogeneities in contact duration and intensity. Based on empirical contact data, we calculate the expected number of secondary cases induced by an infector (i) for the mechanistic model and (ii) under the classical assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. The results of both approaches are compared for different basic reproduction numbers R0.

RESULTS

The outcomes of the mechanistic model differ significantly from those of the assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. In particular, cases with many different contacts have much lower expected numbers of secondary cases when using the mechanistic model instead of the common assumption. This is due to the fact that the proportion of long, intensive contacts decreases in the contact dataset with an increasing total number of contacts.

CONCLUSION

The importance of highly connected individuals, so-called super-spreaders, for disease spread seems to be overestimated when a constant per-contact transmission probability is assumed. This holds particularly for diseases with low basic reproduction numbers. Simulations of disease spread should weight contacts by duration and intensity.

Outbreaks of Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage in day care cohorts in Finland - implications for elimination of transmission

Background

Day care centre (DCC) attendees play a central role in maintaining the circulation of Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) in the population. Exposure within families and within DCCs are the main risk factors for colonisation with pneumococcal serotypes in DCC attendees.

Methods

Transmission of serotype specific carriage was analysed with a continuous time event history model, based on longitudinal data from day care attendees and their family members. Rates of acquisition, conditional on exposure, were estimated in a Bayesian framework utilising latent processes of carriage. To ensure a correct level of exposure, non-participating day care attendees and their family members were included in the analysis. Posterior predictive simulations were used to quantify transmission patterns within day care cohorts, to estimate the basic reproduction number for pneumococcal carriage in a population of day care cohorts, and to assess the critical vaccine efficacy against carriage to eliminate pneumococcal transmission.

Results

The model, validated by posterior predictive sampling, was successful in capturing the strong temporal clustering of pneumococcal serotypes in the day care cohorts. In average 2.7 new outbreaks of pneumococcal carriage initiate in a day care cohort each month. While 39% of outbreaks were of size one, the mean outbreak size was 7.6 individuals and the mean length of an outbreak was 2.8 months. The role of families in creating and maintaining transmission was minimal, as only 10% of acquisitions in day care attendees were from family members. Considering a population of day care cohorts, a child-to-child basic reproduction number was estimated as 1.4 and the critical vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage as 0.3.

Conclusion

Pneumococcal transmission occurs in serotype specific outbreaks of carriage, driven by within-day-care transmission and between-serotype competition. An amplifying effect of the day care cohorts enhances the spread of pneumococcal serotypes within the population. The effect of vaccination, in addition to reducing susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage in the vaccinated, induces a herd effect, thus creating a counter-effect to the amplifying effect of the cohort. Consequently, the critical vaccine efficacy against carriage, required for elimination of transmission, is relatively low. Use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines is expected to induce a notable herd protection against pneumococcal disease.

Clustering of serotypes in a longitudinal study of Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage in three day care centres

BACKGROUND

Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) causes a wide range of clinical manifestations that together constitute a major burden of disease worldwide. The main route of pneumococcal transmission is through asymptomatic colonisation of the nasopharynx. Studies of transmission are currently of general interest because of the impact of the new conjugate-polysaccharide vaccines on nasopharyngeal colonisation (carriage). Here we report the first longitudinal study of pneumococcal carriage that records serotype specific exposure to pneumococci simultaneously within the two most important mixing groups, families and day care facilities.

METHODS

We followed attendees (N = 59) with their family members (N = 117) and the employees (N = 37) in three Finnish day care centres for 9 months with monthly sampling of nasopharyngeal carriage. Pneumococci were cultured, identified and serotyped by standard methods.

RESULTS

Children in day care constitute a core group of pneumococcal carriage: of the 36 acquisitions of carriage with documented exposure to homologous pneumococci, the attendee had been exposed in her/his day care centre in 35 cases and in the family in 9 cases. Day care children introduce pneumococci to the family: 66% of acquisitions of a new serotype in a family were associated with simultaneous or previous carriage of the same type in the child attending day care. Consequently, pneumococcal transmission was found to take place as micro-epidemics driven by the day care centres. Each of the three day care centres was dominated by a serotype of its own, accounting for 100% of the isolates of that serotype among all samples from the day care attendees.

CONCLUSION

The transmission of pneumococci is more intense within than across clusters defined by day care facilities. The ensuing micro-epidemic behaviour enhances pneumococcal transmission.

Rotavirus within day care centres in Oxfordshire, UK: characterization of partial immunity

Repeated measures data for rotavirus infection in children within 14 day care centres (DCCs) in the Oxfordshire area, UK, are used to explore aspects of rotavirus transmission and immunity. A biologically realistic model for the transmission of infection is presented as a set of probability models suitable for application to the data. Two transition events are modelled separately: incidence and recovery. The complexity of the underlying mechanistic model is reflected in the choice of the fixed variables in the probability models. Parameter estimation was carried out using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We use the parameter estimates obtained to build a profile of the natural history of rotavirus reinfection in an individual child. We infer that rotavirus transmission in children in DCCs is dependent on the DCC prevalence, with symptomatic infection of longer duration, but no more infectious per day of infectious period, than asymptomatic infection. There was evidence that a recent previous infection reduces the risk of disease and, to a lesser extent, reinfection, but not duration of infection. The results provide evidence that partial immunity to rotavirus infection develops over several time scales.

Immunoglobulin G avidities in infants in Mexico after primary immunization with three doses of polyribosylribitol phosphate-tetanus toxoid Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine

Serum immunoglobulin G concentrations and avidities specific to Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) were measured in 208 children living in Guadalajara and Mexico City. Protective concentrations were found in 98.9% and 100.0% of participants, respectively. Geometric mean concentrations differed between both populations and/or among age groups. Mean avidities differed only among the 7- to 12-month-old children. Diphtheria-tetanus-whole-cell pertussis-hepatitis B-Hib primary vaccination seems to induce protection in Mexican children.

Understanding the impact of Hib conjugate vaccine on transmission, immunity and disease in the United Kingdom

A rise in invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infections occurred 8 years after vaccine introduction in the United Kingdom. Aspects of Hib vaccine delivery unique to the United Kingdom have been implicated. The authors developed a fully age-structured deterministic susceptible-infected-resistant-susceptible mathematical model, expressed as a set of partial differential equations, to better understand the causes of declining vaccine effectiveness. We also investigated the consequences of the vaccine's impact on reducing Hib transmission for maintenance of immunity. Our findings emphasized the importance of maintaining high post-immunization antibody titres among age groups at greatest risk of invasive infections. In keeping with UK population-based estimates, low direct efficacy of immunological memory against disease was found, cautioning against over-reliance on evidence of priming alone as a correlate of population protection. The contribution of herd immunity to disease control was reinforced. Possible intervention strategies will be explored in subsequent work.