Human campylobacteriosis in Scotland: seasonality, regional trends and bursts of infection

An ecological study of the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of domestically acquired campylobacteriosis in Ireland, 2011-2018

In 2021, Campylobacteriosis was the main gastrointestinal disease in the European Union since 2007 according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. In the Republic of Ireland, the incidence of the disease is particularly high with approximately 3,000 cases per annum, raising significant concerns for national health authorities with an expected increase in the number of cases in the light of climate change. The current study sought to assess the spatio-temporal patterns of campylobacteriosis in the Republic of Ireland using 20,391 cases from January 2011 to December 2018. An ensemble of spatial statistics techniques including seasonal decomposition, spatial clustering and space-time scanning, were used to elucidate the main individual and spatio-temporal characteristics of the disease in the country. Findings revealed that cases from the paediatric age group (i.e., under 5 years old) were more likely to occur in rural areas (aOR: 1.1.27, CI 95% 1.14-1.41) while cases from the intermediate age group (i.e., >5 & <65 years old) were associated with urban living (aOR: 1.30, CI 95% 1.21-1.4). The disease exhibited a peak during Irish summer, with a stronger seasonal signal reported in counties located on the Western part of the country. Infection hotspots were more likely to occur in urban areas, and more particularly on the Southern part of the island and around the main metropolitan areas. Overall, research findings pointed out the influence of local and spatio-temporally specific socio-demographic and environmental risk factors (i.e., cooking habits, local weather, dietary types) therefore highlighting the need for initiating spatio-temporally targeted health management and surveillance strategies.

Assessing the Risk of Seasonal Effects of Campylobacter Contaminated Broiler Meat Prepared In-Home in the United States

Campylobacter has consistently posed a food safety issue in broiler meat. This study aimed to create a quantitative microbial risk assessment model from retail to consumption, designed to evaluate the seasonal risk of campylobacteriosis associated with broiler meat consumption in the United States. To achieve this, data was gathered to build distributions that would enable us to predict the growth of Campylobacter during various stages such as retail storage, transit, and home storage. The model also included potential fluctuations in concentration during food preparation and potential cross-contamination scenarios. A Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 iterations was used to estimate the risk of infection per serving and the number of infections in the United States by season. In the summer, chicken meat was estimated to have a median risk of infection per serving of 9.22 × 10^-7 and cause an average of about 27,058,680 infections. During the winter months, the median risk of infection per serving was estimated to be 4.06 × 10^-7 and cause an average of about 12,085,638 infections. The risk assessment model provides information about the risk of broiler meat to public health by season. These results will help understand the most important steps to reduce the food safety risks from contaminated chicken products.

Weather correlates of Campylobacter prevalence in broilers at slaughter under tropical conditions in Sri Lanka

Campylobacter is the primary agent of human bacterial gastroenteritis worldwide. In contrast to temperate zones, weather effects on Campylobacter prevalence in broilers under tropical conditions are under-researched. We examined the association between weather and Campylobacter prevalence in slaughtered broilers in Sri Lanka, a tropical country with weather variations led by monsoons. Each month (October 2009-July 2011), 20-30 broiler batches referring to two semi-automated slaughterhouses from five Sri Lankan provinces were tested for Campylobacter contamination and analysed in relation to temperature, humidity and rainfall. Overall prevalence was 63.8% (95% CI 59.6-67.9%, n = 542), peaking in September-November. Each 1 °C increase in monthly mean temperature up to 26 °C increased Campylobacter-positive batches by 16.4% (95% CI 0.4-35.1%). For each 10 mm increase in monthly total rainfall up to 300 mm, Campylobacter-positive batches increased significantly by 0.8% (0.1-1.5%) at 1-month lag. For each 1% increase in relative humidity up to 80% at 1- and 2-month lags, Campylobacter-positive batches increased of respectively 4.2% (1.9-6.7%) and 4.0% (1.5-6.5), and decreased by 3.6% (2.6-4.6%) and 4.0% (2.6-5.4%) for unit increases above 80%. These results suggest that even in tropical countries without marked seasons, there are weather effects possibly reflecting Campylobacter potential to colonise its preferred host and/or survive in the environment.

A descriptive analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of enteric diseases in New Brunswick, Canada

Background

Enteric diseases affect thousands of Canadians annually and several large outbreaks have occurred due to infection with enteric pathogens. The objectives of this study were to describe the spatial and temporal distributions of reportable Campylobacter, Escherichia coli, Giardia, Salmonella and Shigella from 1994 to 2002 in New Brunswick, Canada. By examining the spatial and temporal distributions of disease incidence, hypotheses as to potential disease risk factors were formulated.

Methods

Time series plots of monthly disease incidence were examined for seasonal and secular trends. Seasonality of disease incidence was evaluated using the temporal scan statistic and seasonal–trend loess (STL) decomposition methods. Secular trends were evaluated using negative binomial regression modeling. The spatial distribution of disease incidence was examined using maps of empirical Bayes smoothed estimates of disease incidence. Spatial clustering was examined by multiple methods, which included Moran’s I and the spatial scan statistic.

Results

The peak incidence of Giardia infections occurred in the spring months. Salmonella incidence exhibited two peaks, one small peak in the spring and a main peak in the summer. Campylobacter and Escherichia coli O157 disease incidence peaked in the summer months. Moran’s I indicated that there was significant positive spatial autocorrelation for the incidence of Campylobacter, Giardia and Salmonella. The spatial scan statistic identified clusters of high disease incidence in the northern areas of the province for Campylobacter, Giardia and Salmonella infections. The incidence of Escherichia coli infections clustered in the south-east and north-east areas of the province, based on the spatial scan statistic results. Shigella infections had the lowest incidence rate and no discernable spatial or temporal patterns were observed.

Conclusions

By using several different spatial and temporal methods a robust picture of the spatial and temporal distributions of enteric disease in New Brunswick was produced. Disease incidence for several reportable enteric pathogens displayed significant geographic clustering indicating that a spatially distributed risk factor may be contributing to disease incidence. Temporal analysis indicated peaks in disease incidence, including previously un-reported peaks.

The importance of climatic factors and outliers in predicting regional monthly campylobacteriosis risk in Georgia, USA

Incidence of Campylobacter infection exhibits a strong seasonal component and regional variations in temperate climate zones. Forecasting the risk of infection regionally may provide clues to identify sources of transmission affected by temperature and precipitation. The objectives of this study were to (1) assess temporal patterns and differences in campylobacteriosis risk among nine climatic divisions of Georgia, USA, (2) compare univariate forecasting models that analyze campylobacteriosis risk over time with those that incorporate temperature and/or precipitation, and (3) investigate alternatives to supposedly random walk series and non-random occurrences that could be outliers. Temporal patterns of campylobacteriosis risk in Georgia were visually and statistically assessed. Univariate and multivariable forecasting models were used to predict the risk of campylobacteriosis and the coefficient of determination (R(2)) was used for evaluating training (1999-2007) and holdout (2008) samples. Statistical control charting and rolling holdout periods were investigated to better understand the effect of outliers and improve forecasts. State and division level campylobacteriosis risk exhibited seasonal patterns with peaks occurring between June and August, and there were significant associations between campylobacteriosis risk, precipitation, and temperature. State and combined division forecasts were better than divisions alone, and models that included climate variables were comparable to univariate models. While rolling holdout techniques did not improve predictive ability, control charting identified high-risk time periods that require further investigation. These findings are important in (1) determining how climatic factors affect environmental sources and reservoirs of Campylobacter spp. and (2) identifying regional spikes in the risk of human Campylobacter infection and their underlying causes.

Relevance of Campylobacter to public health--the need for a One Health approach

Campylobacter species belong to the most important foodborne bacteria which cause gastroenteritis in humans in both developed and developing countries. With increasing reporting rates, the public awareness towards Campylobacter infections is growing continuously. This strengthens the necessity to establish intervention measures for prevention and control of thermophilic Campylobacter spp. along the food chain, as in particular poultry and poultry meat represent a major source of human infections. An interdisciplinary One Health approach and a combined effort of all stakeholders are necessary to ultimately reduce the burden of campylobacteriosis cases in humans. Numerous studies point out, however, that at present a complete elimination of Campylobacter in the food chain is not feasible. The present aim should therefore be to establish control measures and intervention strategies to minimize the occurrence of Campylobacter spp. in livestock (e.g. poultry flocks) and to reduce the quantitative Campylobacter burden in animals and foods. To this end, a combination of intervention methods at different stages of the food chain appears most promising. That has to be accompanied by targeted consumer advice and education campaigns to raise the awareness towards Campylobacter infections.

Current methods for molecular typing of Campylobacter species

Campylobacter remains one of the most common bacterial causes of gastroenteritis worldwide. Tracking sources of this organism is challenging due to the large numbers of human cases, and the prevalence of this organism throughout the environment due to growth in a wide range of animal species. Many molecular subtyping methods have been developed to characterize Campylobacter species, but only a few are commonly used in molecular epidemiology studies. This review examines the applicability of these methods, as well as the role that emerging whole genome sequencing technologies will play in tracking sources of Campylobacter spp. infection.

Impacts of climate change on the microbial safety of pre-harvest leafy green vegetables as indicated by Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp

The likelihood of leafy green vegetable (LGV) contamination and the associated pathogen growth and survival are strongly related to climatic conditions. Particularly temperature increase and precipitation pattern changes have a close relationship not only with the fate and transport of enteric bacteria, but also with their growth and survival. Using all relevant literature, this study reviews and synthesises major impacts of climate change (temperature increases and precipitation pattern changes) on contamination sources (manure, soil, surface water, sewage and wildlife) and pathways of foodborne pathogens (focussing on Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp.) on pre-harvested LGVs. Whether climate change increases their prevalence depends not only on the resulting local balance of the positive and negative impacts but also on the selected regional climate change scenarios. However, the contamination risks are likely to increase. This review shows the need for quantitative modelling approaches with scenario analyses and additional laboratory experiments. This study gives an extensive overview of the impacts of climate change on the contamination of pre-harvested LGVs and shows that climate change should not be ignored in food safety management and research.

Comparison of molecular typing methods useful for detecting clusters of Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli isolates through routine surveillance

Campylobacter spp. may be responsible for unreported outbreaks of food-borne disease. The detection of these outbreaks is made more difficult by the fact that appropriate methods for detecting clusters of Campylobacter have not been well defined. We have compared the characteristics of five molecular typing methods on Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli isolates obtained from human and nonhuman sources during sentinel site surveillance during a 3-year period. Comparative genomic fingerprinting (CGF) appears to be one of the optimal methods for the detection of clusters of cases, and it could be supplemented by the sequencing of the flaA gene short variable region (flaA SVR sequence typing), with or without subsequent multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Different methods may be optimal for uncovering different aspects of source attribution. Finally, the use of several different molecular typing or analysis methods for comparing individuals within a population reveals much more about that population than a single method. Similarly, comparing several different typing methods reveals a great deal about differences in how the methods group individuals within the population.

Comparison of three time-series models for predicting campylobacteriosis risk

Three time-series models (regression, decomposition, and Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving averages) were applied to national surveillance data for campylobacteriosis with the goal of disease forecasting in three US states. Datasets spanned 1998-2007 for Minnesota and Oregon, and 1999-2007 for Georgia. Year 2008 was used to validate model results. Mean absolute percent error, mean square error and coefficient of determination (R2) were the main evaluation fit statistics. Results showed that decomposition best captured the temporal patterns in disease risk. Training dataset R2 values were 72.2%, 76.3% and 89.9% and validation year R2 values were 66.2%, 52.6% and 79.9% respectively for Georgia, Oregon and Minnesota. All three techniques could be utilized to predict monthly risk of infection for Campylobacter sp. However, the decomposition model provided the fastest, most accurate, user-friendly method. Use of this model can assist public health personnel in predicting epidemics and developing disease intervention strategies.

Trends in Campylobacter incidence in broilers and humans in six European countries, 1997-2007

The objective of this study was to examine incidences of Campylobacter in broilers and humans, and to describe seasonal variation and long-term trends by comparing longitudinal surveillance data in six Northern European countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands). Due to high degree of seasonality and autocorrelation, seasonally adjusted (de-seasonalized) and trend adjusted data (de-trended) were used for comparing incidences within and between the six countries. De-seasonalized time series were obtained by fitting the incidence time series to mean monthly temperature and then removing this effect from the data. Long-term trends were fitted to the de-seasonalized time series. The incidence of Campylobacter colonization in broiler flocks and incidence of campylobacteriosis in humans showed a concordant seasonality for all the countries. There was a strong association between the incidence in both broilers and humans in a given month and the mean temperature of the northern hemisphere in the same month, as well as the preceding month, as shown by the cross-correlations and the chosen Generalized Additive Model. Denmark and Sweden showed a steadily decreasing trend for Campylobacter in broilers and human campylobacteriosis in the period 2001-2007. In Iceland, there was a decreasing trend for campylobacteriosis in humans from 1999 to 2007, whilst the broiler trend for Campylobacter was stable from 2001 to 2004, then falling thereafter. In Norway, the human campylobacteriosis trend showed a steady increase throughout the period. On the other hand, the Norwegian broiler trend for Campylobacter showed a decrease from 2001 until 2004, but was thereafter stable. There was no significant decrease or increase in incidence for human campylobacteriosis in the Netherlands, and the trend for Campylobacter in broilers was close to stable. The seasonality seen in broiler and human closely follows the temperature, and was probably caused, at least partly, by temperature related factors.

Immunity to Campylobacter: its role in risk assessment and epidemiology

Acquired immunity is an important factor in the epidemiology of campylobacteriosis in the developing world, apparently limiting symptomatic infection to children of less than two years. However, also in developed countries the highest incidence is observed in children under five years and the majority of Campylobacter infections are asymptomatic, which may be related to the effects of immunity and/or the ingested doses. Not accounting for immunity in epidemiological studies may lead to biased results due to the misclassification of Campylobacter-exposed but apparently healthy persons as unexposed. In risk assessment studies, health risks may be overestimated when immunity is neglected.

Intestinal carriage of verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157, Salmonella, thermophilic Campylobacter and Yersinia enterocolitica, in cattle, sheep and pigs at slaughter in Great Britain during 2003

An abattoir survey was undertaken to determine the prevalence of foodborne zoonotic organisms colonizing cattle, sheep and pigs at slaughter in Great Britain. The study ran for 12 months from January 2003, involved 93 abattoirs and collected 7703 intestinal samples. The design was similar to two previous abattoir surveys undertaken in 1999-2000 allowing comparisons. Samples were examined for VTEC O157, Salmonella, thermophilic Campylobacter and Yersinia enterocolitica. The prevalence of VTEC O157 faecal carriage was 4.7% in cattle, 0.7% in sheep and 0.3% in pigs. A significant decrease in sheep was detected from the previous survey (1.7%). Salmonella carriage was 1.4% in cattle, a significant increase from the previous survey of 0.2%. In sheep, faecal carriage was 1.1% a significant increase from the previous survey (0.1%). In pigs, carriage was 23.4%, consistent with the previous study. Thermophilic Campylobacter spp. were isolated from 54.6% of cattle, 43.8% of sheep and 69.3% of pigs. Y. enterocolitica was isolated from 4.5% of cattle, 8.0% of sheep and 10.2% of pigs.

Has retail chicken played a role in the decline of human campylobacteriosis?

Between 2001 and 2006, the incidence of human Campylobacter infections decreased by 10 and 27% in Scotland and the Grampian region of Scotland, respectively. Contemporaneous collection and analyses of human and retail-chicken isolates from Grampian were carried out over a 10-week period in 2001 and again in 2006 in order to determine whether the fall in the incidence of human infections was related to the retail-chicken exposure route. Rates of carriage of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from retail outlets in Grampian in 2001 and 2006 were estimated. Chicken-derived Campylobacter isolates from 2001 (n = 84) and 2006 (n = 105) and human-derived isolates from patients with clinical cases of infection in 2001 (n = 172) and 2006 (n = 119) were typed by multilocus sequence typing. We found no evidence for statistically significant changes in prevalence and counts per carcass. We found by rarefaction that although the degree of diversity in humans tended to be higher than that in chickens, these differences were not significant. The genetic distance between chicken and human isolates from 2001 according to sequence type, clonal complex (CC), or allele composition was not significant, whereas the distances between 2006 isolates at the CC and allele levels were significant. This difference was attributable to a lower proportion of CC-21's being found in retail-chicken isolates from 2006 than in chicken isolates from 2001. We conclude that human exposure to Campylobacter via retail chicken is important and that changes in the population structure of campylobacters in this reservoir need to be taken into account in investigating human infection.

Campylobacters as zoonotic pathogens: a food production perspective

Campylobacters remain highly important zoonotic pathogens worldwide which infect an estimated 1% of the population of Western Europe each year. Certain campylobacters are also important in infections of animals, particularly of the reproductive tract, and some are involved in periodontal disease. This paper focuses, however, on the two species which are most important in food-borne infections of humans, Campylobacter (C.) jejuni and C. coli. Infection with these campylobacters is serious in its own right but can also have long-term sequelae such as reactive arthritis and Guillain-Barré syndrome. The pathogens are ubiquitous in nature and in domestic animals and, as a consequence, are found frequently in the environment and on many raw foods, of both plant and animal origin and bacterial numbers can be very high on certain key foods like raw poultry meat. Although all commercial poultry species can carry campylobacters, the risk is greater from chicken because of the high levels of consumption. Campylobacters are relatively 'new' zoonotic pathogens as routine culture from clinical specimens only became possible in the late 1970s. As a consequence there is much that still needs to be understood about the behaviour and pathogenicity of these highly important bacteria. In particular, and from a food industry/food safety perspective, it is important to better understand the behaviour of C. jejuni and C. coli in the food production environment, and how this affects their ability to survive certain food production processes. There is a belief that campylobacters are much more sensitive to hostile conditions than either salmonellas or Escherichia coli. Much of data to support this view have been derived from laboratory experiments and may not fully represent the natural situation. Studies are showing that campylobacters may be more robust than previously thought and thus may represent a greater challenge to food safety. We recommend that research is undertaken to better understand how campylobacters behave in the food chain and how responses to relevant conditions affect their ability to survive processing and their virulence. There is also a need to better understand the reasons why campylobacters are capable of frequent change, particularly in the expression of surface antigens.