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Hayes BH, Vergne T, Andraud M, Rose N. Mathematical modeling at the livestock-wildlife interface: scoping review of drivers of disease transmission between species. Front Vet Sci 2023; 10:1225446. [PMID: 37745209 PMCID: PMC10511766 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2023.1225446] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2023] [Accepted: 08/17/2023] [Indexed: 09/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Modeling of infectious diseases at the livestock-wildlife interface is a unique subset of mathematical modeling with many innate challenges. To ascertain the characteristics of the models used in these scenarios, a scoping review of the scientific literature was conducted. Fifty-six studies qualified for inclusion. Only 14 diseases at this interface have benefited from the utility of mathematical modeling, despite a far greater number of shared diseases. The most represented species combinations were cattle and badgers (for bovine tuberculosis, 14), and pigs and wild boar [for African (8) and classical (3) swine fever, and foot-and-mouth and disease (1)]. Assessing control strategies was the overwhelming primary research objective (27), with most studies examining control strategies applied to wildlife hosts and the effect on domestic hosts (10) or both wild and domestic hosts (5). In spatially-explicit models, while livestock species can often be represented through explicit and identifiable location data (such as farm, herd, or pasture locations), wildlife locations are often inferred using habitat suitability as a proxy. Though there are innate assumptions that may not be fully accurate when using habitat suitability to represent wildlife presence, especially for wildlife the parsimony principle plays a large role in modeling diseases at this interface, where parameters are difficult to document or require a high level of data for inference. Explaining observed transmission dynamics was another common model objective, though the relative contribution of involved species to epizootic propagation was only ascertained in a few models. More direct evidence of disease spill-over, as can be obtained through genomic approaches based on pathogen sequences, could be a useful complement to further inform such modeling. As computational and programmatic capabilities advance, the resolution of the models and data used in these models will likely be able to increase as well, with a potential goal being the linking of modern complex ecological models with the depth of dynamics responsible for pathogen transmission. Controlling diseases at this interface is a critical step toward improving both livestock and wildlife health, and mechanistic models are becoming increasingly used to explore the strategies needed to confront these diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brandon H. Hayes
- IHAP, Université de Toulouse, INRAE, ENVT, Toulouse, France
- Ploufragan-Plouzané-Niort Laboratory, The French Agency for Food, Agriculture and the Environment (ANSES), Ploufragan, France
| | | | - Mathieu Andraud
- Ploufragan-Plouzané-Niort Laboratory, The French Agency for Food, Agriculture and the Environment (ANSES), Ploufragan, France
| | - Nicolas Rose
- Ploufragan-Plouzané-Niort Laboratory, The French Agency for Food, Agriculture and the Environment (ANSES), Ploufragan, France
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Bacigalupo SA, Dixon LK, Gubbins S, Kucharski AJ, Drewe JA. Towards a unified generic framework to define and observe contacts between livestock and wildlife: a systematic review. PeerJ 2020; 8:e10221. [PMID: 33173619 PMCID: PMC7594637 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.10221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2020] [Accepted: 09/29/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Wild animals are the source of many pathogens of livestock and humans. Concerns about the potential transmission of economically important and zoonotic diseases from wildlife have led to increased surveillance at the livestock-wildlife interface. Knowledge of the types, frequency and duration of contacts between livestock and wildlife is necessary to identify risk factors for disease transmission and to design possible mitigation strategies. Observing the behaviour of many wildlife species is challenging due to their cryptic nature and avoidance of humans, meaning there are relatively few studies in this area. Further, a consensus on the definition of what constitutes a 'contact' between wildlife and livestock is lacking. A systematic review was conducted to investigate which livestock-wildlife contacts have been studied and why, as well as the methods used to observe each species. Over 30,000 publications were screened, of which 122 fulfilled specific criteria for inclusion in the analysis. The majority of studies examined cattle contacts with badgers or with deer; studies involving wild pig contacts with cattle or with domestic pigs were the next most frequent. There was a range of observational methods including motion-activated cameras and global positioning system collars. As a result of the wide variation and lack of consensus in the definitions of direct and indirect contacts, we developed a unified framework to define livestock-wildlife contacts that is sufficiently flexible to be applied to most wildlife and livestock species for non-vector-borne diseases. We hope this framework will help standardise the collection and reporting of contact data; a valuable step towards being able to compare the efficacy of wildlife-livestock observation methods. In doing so, it may aid the development of better disease transmission models and improve the design and effectiveness of interventions to reduce or prevent disease transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Simon Gubbins
- The Pirbright Institute, Woking, Surrey, United Kingdom
| | - Adam J. Kucharski
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, University of London, London, United Kingdom
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Campbell EL, Menzies FD, Byrne AW, Porter S, McCormick CM, McBride KR, Scantlebury DM, Reid N. Grazing cattle exposure to neighbouring herds and badgers in relation to bovine tuberculosis risk. Res Vet Sci 2020; 133:297-303. [PMID: 33069429 DOI: 10.1016/j.rvsc.2020.09.032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2020] [Revised: 09/23/2020] [Accepted: 09/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) can be spread between and among cattle and wildlife hosts e.g. European badger (Meles meles). The majority of cattle in the UK and Ireland are grazed during the summer, potentially exposing them to Mycobacterium bovis. 18 farms were surveyed (39% dairy, 61% beef; fields n = 697) for one grazing season (May-November 2016, n = 148,461 field days) to quantify the co-occurrence of cattle with badger setts and latrines and adjacency to neighbouring cattle herds. 3% (n = 24) of the fields had a badger sett or latrine recorded, dairy cattle were significantly more likely to co-occur with badger setts and latrines than beef cattle. Most farms (89%) grazed cattle adjacent to a neighbouring herd, which accounted for 18% of the grazing season. Potential exposure to neighbouring herds did not differ between production systems but did vary between life stages. A significant positive association between the proportion of time cattle spent grazing fields with setts present and the historic 1-, 3- and 5- year bTB status (p = 0.007, p = 0.013 and p = 0.013 respectively) was found. However, when cattle were grazed in fields with latrines, a significant negative association was found between the proportion of time cattle spent grazing fields with latrines present and the historic 3- and 5- year bTB status (p = 0.033 and p = 0.012 respectively). Historic bTB status and percentage of days spent beside a neighbouring herd was unrelated. Idiosyncrasies at farm-level and between risk factors indicated that individual farm assessments would be beneficial to understand potential exposure risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma L Campbell
- Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute, Veterinary Sciences Division, Belfast, UK; School of Biological Sciences, Institute for Global Food Security (IGFS), Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
| | - Fraser D Menzies
- Veterinary Epidemiology Unit, Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA), Belfast, UK
| | - Andrew W Byrne
- Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute, Veterinary Sciences Division, Belfast, UK; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries Food and Marine, Agriculture House, Kildare St, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Siobhán Porter
- Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute, Veterinary Sciences Division, Belfast, UK
| | - Carl M McCormick
- Veterinary Epidemiology Unit, Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA), Belfast, UK
| | - Kathryn R McBride
- Veterinary Epidemiology Unit, Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA), Belfast, UK
| | - D Michael Scantlebury
- School of Biological Sciences, Institute for Global Food Security (IGFS), Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK
| | - Neil Reid
- School of Biological Sciences, Institute for Global Food Security (IGFS), Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK
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Bonneau M, Bambou JC, Mandonnet N, Arquet R, Mahieu M. Goats worm burden variability also results from non-homogeneous larval intake. Sci Rep 2018; 8:15987. [PMID: 30375496 PMCID: PMC6207733 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-34338-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2018] [Accepted: 10/12/2018] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
For small ruminants, Gastrointestinal Nematodes (GINs) are responsible for severe economic losses and they are also an animal welfare problem. GIN use their host to reproduce and disperse eggs on the pasture, from where they can re-infect another animal. The high density of hosts on the pasture and the extreme tolerance of GIN to environmental constraints make GIN eradication almost impossible. In addition, significant resistance to anthelmintic treatment requires sustainable and integrated management to maintain the health and financial well-being of livestock farming. In this context, models of the complex interactions between host, GIN and environment can help us to design long term optimal management strategies. To build such models, quantitative information is needed but are generally very challenging to collect. In this article, we focus on the number of ingested larvae per animal, which we propose to characterise by using a simulation framework based on the estimation of the spatial distribution of the host over time. Our framework allows us to show that worm burden individual variation is not only explained by the host’s genetics, as is often the case, but is also a result of the grazing spatial process.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathieu Bonneau
- INRA - URZ, UR143, Petit-Bourg, 97170, Guadeloupe, French West Indies, France.
| | | | - Nathalie Mandonnet
- INRA - URZ, UR143, Petit-Bourg, 97170, Guadeloupe, French West Indies, France
| | - Rémy Arquet
- INRA - UE PTEA, UE1294, Petit-Bourg, 97170, Guadeloupe, French West Indies, France
| | - Maurice Mahieu
- INRA - URZ, UR143, Petit-Bourg, 97170, Guadeloupe, French West Indies, France
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Fox NJ, Marion G, Davidson RS, White PCL, Hutchings MR. Climate-driven tipping-points could lead to sudden, high-intensity parasite outbreaks. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2015; 2:140296. [PMID: 26064647 PMCID: PMC4453250 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.140296] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2014] [Accepted: 04/23/2015] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Parasitic nematodes represent one of the most pervasive and significant challenges to grazing livestock, and their intensity and distribution are strongly influenced by climate. Parasite levels and species composition have already shifted under climate change, with nematode parasite intensity frequently low in newly colonized areas, but sudden large-scale outbreaks are becoming increasingly common. These outbreaks compromise both food security and animal welfare, yet there is a paucity of predictions on how climate change will influence livestock parasites. This study aims to assess how climate change can affect parasite risk. Using a process-based approach, we determine how changes in temperature-sensitive elements of outbreaks influence parasite dynamics, to explore the potential for climate change to influence livestock helminth infections. We show that changes in temperate-sensitive parameters can result in nonlinear responses in outbreak dynamics, leading to distinct 'tipping-points' in nematode parasite burdens. Through applying two mechanistic models, of varying complexity, our approach demonstrates that these nonlinear responses are robust to the inclusion of a number of realistic processes that are present in livestock systems. Our study demonstrates that small changes in climatic conditions around critical thresholds may result in dramatic changes in parasite burdens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Naomi J. Fox
- Disease Systems Team, SRUC, King's Building, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, King's Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JZ, UK
- Department of Environment, University of York, Heslington, York YO10 5DD, UK
| | - Glenn Marion
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, King's Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JZ, UK
| | - Ross S. Davidson
- Disease Systems Team, SRUC, King's Building, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK
| | - Piran C. L. White
- Department of Environment, University of York, Heslington, York YO10 5DD, UK
| | - Michael R. Hutchings
- Disease Systems Team, SRUC, King's Building, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK
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Fox NJ, Marion G, Davidson RS, White PCL, Hutchings MR. Modelling parasite transmission in a grazing system: the importance of host behaviour and immunity. PLoS One 2013; 8:e77996. [PMID: 24223133 PMCID: PMC3819330 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0077996] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2013] [Accepted: 09/14/2013] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Parasitic helminths present one of the most pervasive challenges to grazing herbivores. Many macro-parasite transmission models focus on host physiological defence strategies, omitting more complex interactions between hosts and their environments. This work represents the first model that integrates both the behavioural and physiological elements of gastro-intestinal nematode transmission dynamics in a managed grazing system. A spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic model is developed, that incorporates both the hosts' immunological responses to parasitism, and key grazing behaviours including faecal avoidance. The results demonstrate that grazing behaviour affects both the timing and intensity of parasite outbreaks, through generating spatial heterogeneity in parasite risk and nutritional resources, and changing the timing of exposure to the parasites' free-living stages. The influence of grazing behaviour varies with the host-parasite combination, dependent on the development times of different parasite species and variations in host immune response. Our outputs include the counterintuitive finding that under certain conditions perceived parasite avoidance behaviours (faecal avoidance) can increase parasite risk, for certain host-parasite combinations. Through incorporating the two-way interaction between infection dynamics and grazing behaviour, the potential benefits of parasite-induced anorexia are also demonstrated. Hosts with phenotypic plasticity in grazing behaviour, that make grazing decisions dependent on current parasite burden, can reduce infection with minimal loss of intake over the grazing season. This paper explores how both host behaviours and immunity influence macro-parasite transmission in a spatially and temporally heterogeneous environment. The magnitude and timing of parasite outbreaks is influenced by host immunity and behaviour, and the interactions between them; the incorporation of both regulatory processes is required to fully understand transmission dynamics. Understanding of both physiological and behavioural defence strategies will aid the development of novel approaches for control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Naomi J. Fox
- Disease Systems Team, SRUC, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- Environment Department, University of York, York, United Kingdom
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Glenn Marion
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - Ross S. Davidson
- Disease Systems Team, SRUC, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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