A simple model for simulating immunity rate dynamics in a tropical free-range poultry population after avian influenza vaccination

Reducing spatial heterogeneity in coverage improves the effectiveness of dog vaccination against rabies

Vaccination programs are the mainstay of control for many infectious diseases. Heterogeneous coverage is hypothesised to reduce vaccination effectiveness, but this impact has not been quantified in real systems. We address this gap using fine-scale data from two decades of rabies contact tracing and dog vaccination campaigns in Serengeti district, Tanzania. Using generalised linear mixed models, we find that current local (village-level) dog rabies incidence decreases with increasing recent local vaccination coverage. However, current local incidence is most dependent on recent incidence, both locally and in the wider district, consistent with high population connectivity. Removing the masking effects of prior non-local incidence shows that, for the same average prior vaccination coverage beyond the focal village, more spatial variation increases local incidence. These effects led to outbreaks following years when vaccination campaigns missed many villages, whereas when heterogeneity in coverage was reduced, incidence declined to low levels (<0.4 cases/1,000 dogs annually and no human deaths), such that short vaccination lapses thereafter did not lead to resurgence. We inferred ongoing rabies incursions into the district, suggesting regional connectivity as an important source of residual transmission. Overall, we provide an empirical demonstration of how the same average vaccination coverage can lead to differing outcomes based on its spatial distribution, highlighting the importance of fine-scale monitoring in managing vaccination programs.

Ex-ante assessment of different vaccination-based control schedules against the peste des petits ruminants virus in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious and widespread viral infection of small ruminants (goats and sheep), causing heavy economic losses in many developing countries. Therefore, its progressive control and global eradication by 2030 was defined as a priority by international organizations addressing animal health. The control phase of the global strategy is based on mass vaccination of small ruminant populations in endemic regions or countries. It is estimated that a 70% post-vaccination immunity rate (PVIR) is needed in a given epidemiological unit to prevent PPR virus spread. However, implementing mass vaccination is difficult and costly in smallholder farming systems with scattered livestock and limited facilities. Regarding this, controlling PPR is a special challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we focused on this region to assess the effect of several variables of PVIR in two contrasted smallholder farming systems.

METHODS

Using a seasonal matrix population model of PVIR, we estimated its decay in goats reared in sub-humid areas, and sheep reared in semi-arid areas, over a 4-year vaccination program. Assuming immunologically naive and PPR-free epidemiological unit, we assessed the ability of different vaccination scenarios to reach the 70% PVIR throughout the program. The tested scenarios differed in i) their overall schedule, ii) their delivery month and iii) their vaccination coverage.

RESULTS

In sheep reared in semi-arid areas, the vaccination month did affect the PVIR decay though it did not in goats in humid regions. In both cases, our study highlighted i) the importance of targeting the whole eligible population at least during the two first years of the vaccination program and ii) the importance of reaching a vaccination coverage as high as 80% of this population. This study confirmed the relevance of the vaccination schedules recommended by international organizations.

Modelling the Dynamics of Post-Vaccination Immunity Rate in a Population of Sahelian Sheep after a Vaccination Campaign against Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus

Background

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an acute infectious viral disease affecting domestic small ruminants (sheep and goats) and some wild ruminant species in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. A global PPR control strategy based on mass vaccination—in regions where PPR is endemic—was recently designed and launched by international organizations. Sahelian Africa is one of the most challenging endemic regions for PPR control. Indeed, strong seasonal and annual variations in mating, mortality and offtake rates result in a complex population dynamics which might in turn alter the population post-vaccination immunity rate (PIR), and thus be important to consider for the implementation of vaccination campaigns.

Methods

In a context of preventive vaccination in epidemiological units without PPR virus transmission, we developed a predictive, dynamic model based on a seasonal matrix population model to simulate PIR dynamics. This model was mostly calibrated with demographic and epidemiological parameters estimated from a long-term follow-up survey of small ruminant herds. We used it to simulate the PIR dynamics following a single PPR vaccination campaign in a Sahelian sheep population, and to assess the effects of (i) changes in offtake rate related to the Tabaski (a Muslim feast following the lunar calendar), and (ii) the date of implementation of the vaccination campaigns.

Results

The persistence of PIR was not influenced by the Tabaski date. Decreasing the vaccination coverage from 100 to 80% had limited effects on PIR. However, lower vaccination coverage did not provide sufficient immunity rates (PIR < 70%). As a trade-off between model predictions and other considerations like animal physiological status, and suitability for livestock farmers, we would suggest to implement vaccination campaigns in September-October. This model is a first step towards better decision support for animal health authorities. It might be adapted to other species, livestock farming systems or diseases.

Characteristics of commercial and traditional village poultry farming in Mali with a focus on practices influencing the risk of transmission of avian influenza and Newcastle disease

We aimed at characterizing commercial and traditional village poultry farming in Mali, with a focus on practices influencing the risk of transmission of avian influenza and Newcastle disease. Surveys were conducted in 2009-2011 in a study area covering approximately 98% of the Malian poultry population. Among the 282 commercial farms investigated, of which 64 had not been known by the government authorities, 83% were located within a 50km radius from the capitals of the country and regions and 54% had low biosecurity standard. Among the 152 randomly selected village household flocks investigated, characteristics were overall similar to those in other African countries but some differences were notable including a large flock size (median 44 poultry), a low presence of ducks and geese (11% and 1.1% of flocks, respectively), vaccination against Newcastle disease being common (49% of flocks), a low proportion of households selling sick and dead birds (0.7% and 0%, respectively) and limited cohabitation between poultry and humans at night. Our recommendations to limit the risk of disease transmission include (1) for commercial farms, to introduce compulsory farm registration and accreditation, to increase technical proficiency and access to credit for farms with low biosecurity, and to support poultry producer associations; (2) for village poultry, to promote better quarantine and management of sick and dead birds. Such detailed knowledge of country-specific characteristics of poultry production systems is essential to be able to develop more efficient disease risk management policies.

Antibody response and risk factors for seropositivity in backyard poultry following mass vaccination against highly pathogenic avian influenza and Newcastle disease in Indonesia

A large-scale mass vaccination campaign was carried out in Java, Indonesia in an attempt to control outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in backyard flocks and commercial smallholder poultry. Sero-monitoring was conducted in mass vaccination and control areas to assess the proportion of the target population with antibodies against HPAI and Newcastle disease (ND). There were four rounds of vaccination, and samples were collected after each round resulting in a total of 27 293 samples. Sampling was performed irrespective of vaccination status. In the mass vaccination areas, 20-45% of poultry sampled had a positive titre to H5 after each round of vaccination, compared to 2-3% in the control group. In the HPAI + ND vaccination group, 12-25% of the population had positive ND titres, compared to 5-13% in the areas without ND vaccination. The level of seropositivity varied by district, age of the bird, and species (ducks vs. chickens).

Modelling influenza A H5N1 vaccination strategy scenarios in the household poultry sector in Egypt

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI) due to H5N1 virus was first reported in Egypt in February 2006; since then, the government has allowed avian influenza vaccination in poultry. The present study evaluated the impact of AI vaccination in terms of cumulative annual flock immunity (CAFI): the percentage of bird × weeks protected by immunity. This evaluation took account of the combined effects of vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy (VE), and different characteristics of household poultry production on the effectiveness of the adopted vaccination strategy (VS), and provided alternative options for improvement. The evaluation used a population and vaccination model that calculates the CAFI. Participatory approaches were employed in 21 villages to develop the vaccination and flock parameters required for the model. The adopted VS were compared in the model with three alternative VS scenarios in terms of the CAFI. Vaccination coverage varied among villages but was generally low (between 1 and 48 %; median 14 %). Under the adopted VS, the CAFI predicted for the villages ranged from 2 to 31 %. It was concluded that despite the enormous effort put into rural household poultry AI vaccination by the Egyptian government, village CAFI is unlikely to be maintained at the levels required to significantly reduce the virus load and restrict transmission. In HPAI-endemic countries that consider AI vaccination as one of the disease control options, the high cost of mass AI vaccination campaigns and their achievable benefits must be compared with other available control measures, which may include targeted vaccination. Achievable vaccination coverage, VE and the different characteristics of commercial and household (village) poultry production are key parameters determining the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of different AI vaccination strategies.

Estimating the transmissibility of H5N1 and the effect of vaccination in Indonesia

The spread of H5N1 avian influenza continues to pose an economic burden and a public health risk worldwide. Despite this, estimates of the transmissibility of infection exist in only a handful of settings and vary considerably. Using final size methods and flock-level infection data from a field trial of mass vaccination, we obtained the first estimates of the transmissibility of infection between and within flocks in Indonesia. We also found that outbreaks in areas designated as vaccination zones were less transmissible than in non-vaccination zones. However, this reduction is only comparable with a limited degree of protective vaccination coverage. Quantifying the overall effect of vaccination in these zones remains challenging. However, this result would appear to imply that, although the interventions applied in vaccination zones were not sufficient to completely prevent transmission in all areas, when outbreaks occur, they are less transmissible than those in areas where vaccination was not applied. This could be either a direct or an indirect effect of vaccination. Given the dynamism of small-scale poultry production in Indonesia, more regular vaccination may be required to ensure that infection is fully controlled in vaccination zones.

The effectiveness of preventative mass vaccination regimes against the incidence of highly pathogenic avian influenza on Java Island, Indonesia

We conducted an operational research study involving backyard and semicommercial farms on Java Island, Indonesia, between April 2008 and September 2009 to evaluate the effectiveness of two preventive mass vaccination strategies against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). One regimen used Legok 2003 H5N1 vaccine, while the other used both Legok 2003 H5N1 and HB1 Newcastle disease (ND) vaccine. A total of 16 districts were involved in the study. The sample size was estimated using a formal power calculation technique that assumed a detectable effect of treatment as a 50% reduction in the baseline number of HPAI-compatible outbreaks. Within each district, candidate treatment blocks with village poultry populations ranging from 80 000 to 120 000 were created along subdistrict boundary lines. Subsequently, four of these blocks were randomly selected and assigned one treatment from a list that comprised control, vaccination against HPAI, vaccination against HPAI + ND. Four rounds of vaccination were administered at quarterly intervals beginning in July 2008. A vaccination campaign involved vaccinating 100 000 birds in a treatment block, followed by another 100 000 vaccinations 3 weeks later as a booster dose. Data on disease incidence and vaccination coverage were also collected at quarterly intervals using participatory epidemiological techniques. Compared with the unvaccinated (control) group, the incidence of HPAI-compatible events declined by 32% (P = 0.24) in the HPAI-vaccinated group and by 73% (P = 0.00) in the HPAI- and ND-vaccinated group. The effect of treatment did not vary with time or district. Similarly, an analysis of secondary data from the participatory disease and response (PDSR) database revealed that the incidence of HPAI declined by 12% in the HPAI-vaccinated group and by 24% in the HPAI + ND-vaccinated group. The results suggest that the HPAI + ND vaccination significantly reduced the incidence of HPAI-compatible events in mixed populations of semicommercial and backyard poultry.

Characterization of backyard poultry production systems and disease risk in the central zone of Chile

Backyard poultry production systems (BPS) are an important and widespread form of poultry production. There is a common perception that biosecurity standards in BPS are generally poor and BPS are usually associated with animal diseases and zoonoses. In this study BPS were identified in the vicinity of six wetlands, having these a higher risk of presenting and introducing avian diseases such as HPAI and Newcastle disease, as defined by the national veterinary services, in to Chile's main poultry production area. BPS were characterized through a field questionnaire and the main areas covered by the survey were BPS structure, biosecurity and value chain. The BPS identified in this study share most characteristics on biosecurity, poultry management and product commercialization, but it was possible to identify a certain degree of variation within and among the study sites. BPS in Chile are similar to those in other regions, with a relatively small flock size (average 37 birds), a low level of biosecurity measures and lack of poultry disease management. Management findings include that most farmers used mixed/partial confinement, with low or no biosecurity and disease control measures in place. Eggs were the main output and were used mainly for home consumption or sale at local markets. Sick birds' treatment with drugs approved for other species or for human use could represent a risk to human health, owing to the possible presence of drug residues in poultry products. Despite the different structures of the poultry sector worldwide, BPS can play a major role in disease maintenance and spread because its management conditions characteristics and the lack of animal health services adapted to these production systems. This should be an alert message to the veterinary authorities to improve coverage of veterinary assistance and surveillance activities in backyard poultry production.