Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate HIV prevalence in men who have sex with men in Poland at the end of 2009

Using data from 'visible' populations to estimate the size and importance of 'hidden' populations in an epidemic: A modelling technique

We used reported behavioural data from cisgender men who have sex with men and transgender women (MSM/TGW) in Bangalore, mainly collected from 'hot-spot' locations that attract MSM/TGW, to illustrate a technique to deal with potential issues with the representativeness of this sample. A deterministic dynamic model of HIV transmission was developed, incorporating three subgroups of MSM/TGW, grouped according to their reported predominant sexual role (insertive, receptive or versatile). Using mathematical modelling and data triangulation for 'balancing' numbers of partners and role preferences, we compared three different approaches to determine if our technique could be useful for inferring characteristics of a more 'hidden' insertive MSM subpopulation, and explored their potential importance for the HIV epidemic. Projections for 2009 across all three approaches suggest that HIV prevalence among insertive MSM was likely to be less than half that recorded in the surveys (4.5-6.5% versus 13.1%), but that the relative size of this subgroup was over four times larger (61-69% of all MSM/TGW versus 15%). We infer that the insertive MSM accounted for 10-20% of all prevalent HIV infections among urban males aged 15-49. Mathematical modelling can be used with data on 'visible' MSM/TGW to provide insights into the characteristics of 'hidden' MSM. A greater understanding of the sexual behaviour of all MSM/TGW is important for effective HIV programming. More broadly, a hidden subgroup with a lower infectious disease prevalence than more visible subgroups, has the potential to contain more infections, if the hidden subgroup is considerably larger in size.

Behavioural and demographic correlates of undiagnosed HIV infection in a MSM sample recruited in 13 European cities

Background

Reducing the number of people with undiagnosed HIV infection is a major goal of HIV control and prevention efforts in Europe and elsewhere. We analysed data from a large multi-city European bio-behavioural survey conducted among Men who have Sex with Men (MSM) for previously undiagnosed HIV infections, and aimed to characterise undiagnosed MSM who test less frequently than recommended.

Methods

Data on sexual behaviours and social characteristics of MSM with undiagnosed HIV infection from Sialon II, a bio-behavioural cross-sectional survey conducted in 13 European cities in 2013/2014, were compared with HIV-negative MSM. Based on reported HIV-testing patterns, we distinguished two subgroups: MSM with a negative HIV test result within 12 months prior to the study, i.e. undiagnosed incident infection, and HIV positive MSM with unknown onset of infection. Bivariate and multivariate associations of explanatory variables were analysed. Distinct multivariate multi-level random-intercept models were estimated for the entire group and both subgroups.

Results

Among 497 participants with HIV-reactive specimens, 234 (47.1%) were classified as previously diagnosed, 106 (21.3%) as incident, and 58 (11.7%) as unknown onset based on self-reported status and testing history. MSM with incident HIV infection were twice as likely (odds ratio (OR) = 2.22, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.17–4.21) to have used recreational substances during their last anal sex encounter and four times more likely (OR = 3.94, 95%CI: 2.14–7.27) not to discuss their HIV status with the last anal sex partner(s). MSM with unknown onset of HIV infection were 3.6 times more likely (OR = 3.61, 95%CI: 1.74–7.50) to report testing for a sexually transmitted infection (STI) during the last 12 months.

Conclusions

Approximately one third of the study participants who are living with HIV were unaware of their infection. Almost two-third (65%) of those with undiagnosed HIV appeared to have acquired the infection recently, emphasizing a need for more frequent testing. Men with the identified behavioural characteristics could be considered as primary target group for HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) to avoid HIV infection. The increased odds of those with unknown onset of HIV infection to have had an STI test in the past year strongly suggests a lost opportunity to offer HIV testing.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3249-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evidence Synthesis for Stochastic Epidemic Models

In recent years, the role of epidemic models in informing public health policies has progressively grown. Models have become increasingly realistic and more complex, requiring the use of multiple data sources to estimate all quantities of interest. This review summarises the different types of stochastic epidemic models that use evidence synthesis and highlights current challenges.

Meeting the WHO 90% target: antiretroviral treatment efficacy in Poland is associated with baseline clinical patient characteristics

Introduction: Modern combined antiretroviral therapies (cART) allow to effectively suppress HIV-1 viral load, with the 90% virologic success rate, meeting the WHO target in most clinical settings. The aim of this study was to analyse antiretroviral treatment efficacy in Poland and to identify variables associated with virologic suppression.

Methods: Cross-sectional data on 5152 (56.92% of the countrywide treated at the time-point of analysis) patients on cART for more than six months with at least one HIV-RNA measurement in 2016 were collected from 14 Polish centres. Patients’ characteristics and treatment type-based outcomes were analysed for the virologic suppression thresholds of <50 and <200 HIV-RNA copies/ml. CART was categorized into two nucleos(t)ide (2NRTI) plus non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase (NNRTI) inhibitors, 2NRTI plus protease (PI) inhibitor, 2NRTI plus integrase (InI) inhibitor, nucleos(t)ide sparing PI/r+InI and three drug class regimens. For statistics Chi-square and U-Mann Whitney tests and adjusted multivariate logistic regression models were used.

Results: Virologic suppression rates of <50 copies/mL were observed in 4672 (90.68%) and <200 copies/mL in 4934 (95.77%) individuals. In univariate analyses, for the suppression threshold <50 copies/mL higher efficacy was noted for 2NRTI+NNRTI-based combinations (94.73%) compared to 2NRTI+PI (89.93%), 2NRTI+InI (90.61%), nucleos(t)ide sparing PI/r+InI (82.02%) and three drug class regimens (74.49%) (p < 0.0001), with less pronounced but significant differences for the threshold of 200 copies/mL [2NRTI+NNRTI-97.61%, 2NRTI+PI-95.27%, 2NRTI+InI-96.61%, PI/r+InI- 95.51% and 86.22% for three drug class cART) (p < 0.0001). However, in multivariate model, virologic efficacy for viral load <50 copies/mL was similar across treatment groups with significant influence by history of AIDS [OR:1.48 (95%CI:1.01–2.17) if AIDS diagnosed, p = 0.046], viral load < 5 log copies/mL at care entry [OR:1.47 (95%CI:1.08–2.01), p = 0.016], baseline lymphocyte CD4 count ≥200 cells/µL [OR:1.72 (95%CI:1.04–2.78), p = 0.034] and negative HCV serology [OR:1.97 (95%CI:1.29–2.94), p = 0.002]. For viral load threshold <200 copies/mL higher likelihood of virologic success was only associated with baseline lymphocyte CD4 count ≥200 cells/µL [OR:2.08 (95%CI:1.01–4.35), p = 0.049] and negative HCV status [OR:2.84 (95%CI:1.52–5.26), p = 0.001].

Conclusions: Proportion of virologically suppressed patients is in line with WHO treatment target confirming successful application of antiretroviral treatment strategy in Poland. Virological suppression rates depend on baseline patient characteristics, which should guide individualized antiretroviral tre0atment decisions.

Expanding HIV-1 subtype B transmission networks among men who have sex with men in Poland

INTRODUCTION

Reconstruction of HIV transmission links allows to trace the spread and dynamics of infection and guide epidemiological interventions. The aim of this study was to characterize transmission networks among subtype B infected patients from Poland.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Maximum likelihood phylogenenetic trees were inferred from 966 HIV-1 subtype B protease/reverse transcriptase sequences from patients followed up in nine Polish HIV centers. Monophyletic clusters were identified using 3% within-cluster distance and 0.9 bootstrap values. Interregional links for the clusters were investigated and time from infection to onward transmission estimated using Bayesian dated MCMC phylogeny.

RESULTS

Three hundred twenty one (33.2%) sequences formed 109 clusters, including ten clusters of ≥5 sequences (n = 81, 8.4%). Transmission networks were more common among MSM (234 sequences, 68.6%) compared to other infection routes (injection drug use: 28 (8.2%) and heterosexual transmissions: 59 (17.3%) cases, respectively [OR:3.5 (95%CI:2.6-4.6),p<0.001]. Frequency of clustering increased from 26.92% in 2009 to 50.6% in 2014 [OR:1.18 (95%CI:1.06-1.31),p = 0.0026; slope +2.8%/year] with median time to onward transmission within clusters of 1.38 (IQR:0.59-2.52) years. In multivariate models clustering was associated with both MSM transmission route [OR:2.24 (95%CI:1.38-3.65),p<0.001] and asymptomatic stage of HIV infection [OR:1.93 (95%CI:1.4-2.64),p<0.0001]. Additionally, interregional networks were linked to MSM transmissions [OR:4.7 (95%CI:2.55-8.96),p<0.001].

CONCLUSIONS

Reconstruction of the HIV-1 subtype B transmission patterns reveals increasing degree of clustering and existence of interregional networks among Polish MSM. Dated phylogeny confirms the association between onward transmission and recent infections. High transmission dynamics among Polish MSM emphasizes the necessity for active testing and early treatment in this group.