Potential exposure to Zika virus for foreign tourists during the 2016 Carnival and Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Zika Virus and the Rio Olympic Games

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of Zika virus on preparation and management of the New Zealand (NZ) Olympic team.

DESIGN

Descriptive manuscript.

SETTING

New Zealand Olympic Health team preparation and management during the Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games, 2016.

PATIENTS (OR PARTICIPANTS)

New Zealand Olympic Team members.

INTERVENTIONS (OR ASSESSMENT OF RISK FACTORS)

This manuscript describes the approaches used by the NZ Olympic Health team to the minimization of risk from Zika virus.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Although descriptive of approach forms most of the article, the results of Zika virus serology are presented.

RESULTS

The NZ Olympic Health team took a proactive approach to risk mitigation, including extensive education, clothing changes, mosquito spray, mosquito nets, and voluntary postexposure testing. No positive serology was observed in those tested.

CONCLUSIONS

The outbreak of Zika virus in Brazil, the associated complication of microcephaly, and the evolving understanding of virus transmission created significant uncertainty for NZ Olympic team members. The proactive approach taken by the health team to the mitigation of risk, combined with the anticipated low risk of arbovirus transmission over the period of the games, resulted in enhanced confidence from team members and no reports of positive serology.

A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern

INTRODUCTION

Epidemic forecasting and prediction tools have the potential to provide actionable information in the midst of emerging epidemics. While numerous predictive studies were published during the 2016-2017 Zika Virus (ZIKV) pandemic, it remains unknown how timely, reproducible, and actionable the information produced by these studies was.

METHODS

To improve the functional use of mathematical modeling in support of future infectious disease outbreaks, we conducted a systematic review of all ZIKV prediction studies published during the recent ZIKV pandemic using the PRISMA guidelines. Using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and grey literature review, we identified studies that forecasted, predicted, or simulated ecological or epidemiological phenomena related to the Zika pandemic that were published as of March 01, 2017. Eligible studies underwent evaluation of objectives, data sources, methods, timeliness, reproducibility, accessibility, and clarity by independent reviewers.

RESULTS

2034 studies were identified, of which n = 73 met the eligibility criteria. Spatial spread, R0 (basic reproductive number), and epidemic dynamics were most commonly predicted, with few studies predicting Guillain-Barré Syndrome burden (4%), sexual transmission risk (4%), and intervention impact (4%). Most studies specifically examined populations in the Americas (52%), with few African-specific studies (4%). Case count (67%), vector (41%), and demographic data (37%) were the most common data sources. Real-time internet data and pathogen genomic information were used in 7% and 0% of studies, respectively, and social science and behavioral data were typically absent in modeling efforts. Deterministic models were favored over stochastic approaches. Forty percent of studies made model data entirely available, 29% provided all relevant model code, 43% presented uncertainty in all predictions, and 54% provided sufficient methodological detail to allow complete reproducibility. Fifty-one percent of predictions were published after the epidemic peak in the Americas. While the use of preprints improved the accessibility of ZIKV predictions by a median of 119 days sooner than journal publication dates, they were used in only 30% of studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Many ZIKV predictions were published during the 2016-2017 pandemic. The accessibility, reproducibility, timeliness, and incorporation of uncertainty in these published predictions varied and indicates there is substantial room for improvement. To enhance the utility of analytical tools for outbreak response it is essential to improve the sharing of model data, code, and preprints for future outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics.

Mass gatherings medicine: public health issues arising from mass gathering religious and sporting events

Mass gathering events are associated with major public health challenges. The 2014 Lancet Series on the new discipline of mass gatherings medicine was launched at the World Health Assembly of Ministers of Health in Geneva in May, 2014. The Series covered the planning and surveillance systems used to monitor public health risks, public health threats, and experiences of health-care providers from mass gathering events in 2012 and 2013. This follow-up Review focuses on the main public health issues arising from planned mass gathering events held between 2013 and 2018. We highlight public health and research data on transmission of infectious diseases and antibiotic-resistant bacteria, mass casualty incidents, and non-communicable diseases, including thermal disorders. In the events discussed in this Review, the combination of a large influx of people, many from countries with outbreak-prone infectious diseases, with a high degree of crowd interactions imposed substantial burdens on host countries' health systems. The detection and transmission of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in pilgrims attending the Kumbh Mela and the Hajj raise concern of possible globalisation from mass-gathering religious events. Priorities for further investments and opportunities for research into prevention, surveillance, and management of these public health issues are discussed.

Dynamics of Zika virus outbreaks: an overview of mathematical modeling approaches

BACKGROUND

The Zika virus was first discovered in 1947. It was neglected until a major outbreak occurred on Yap Island, Micronesia, in 2007. Teratogenic effects resulting in microcephaly in newborn infants is the greatest public health threat. In 2016, the Zika virus epidemic was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Consequently, mathematical models were constructed to explicitly elucidate related transmission dynamics.

SURVEY METHODOLOGY

In this review article, two steps of journal article searching were performed. First, we attempted to identify mathematical models previously applied to the study of vector-borne diseases using the search terms "dynamics," "mathematical model," "modeling," and "vector-borne" together with the names of vector-borne diseases including chikungunya, dengue, malaria, West Nile, and Zika. Then the identified types of model were further investigated. Second, we narrowed down our survey to focus on only Zika virus research. The terms we searched for were "compartmental," "spatial," "metapopulation," "network," "individual-based," "agent-based" AND "Zika." All relevant studies were included regardless of the year of publication. We have collected research articles that were published before August 2017 based on our search criteria. In this publication survey, we explored the Google Scholar and PubMed databases.

RESULTS

We found five basic model architectures previously applied to vector-borne virus studies, particularly in Zika virus simulations. These include compartmental, spatial, metapopulation, network, and individual-based models. We found that Zika models carried out for early epidemics were mostly fit into compartmental structures and were less complicated compared to the more recent ones. Simple models are still commonly used for the timely assessment of epidemics. Nevertheless, due to the availability of large-scale real-world data and computational power, recently there has been growing interest in more complex modeling frameworks.

DISCUSSION

Mathematical models are employed to explore and predict how an infectious disease spreads in the real world, evaluate the disease importation risk, and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. As the trends in modeling of infectious diseases have been shifting towards data-driven approaches, simple and complex models should be exploited differently. Simple models can be produced in a timely fashion to provide an estimation of the possible impacts. In contrast, complex models integrating real-world data require more time to develop but are far more realistic. The preparation of complicated modeling frameworks prior to the outbreaks is recommended, including the case of future Zika epidemic preparation.

Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe

Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present.

Novel tools for the surveillance and control of dengue: findings by the DengueTools research consortium

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever persists as a major global disease burden, and may increase as a consequence of climate change. Along with other measures, research actions to improve diagnosis, surveillance, prevention, and predictive models are highly relevant. The European Commission funded the DengueTools consortium to lead a major initiative in these areas, and this review synthesises the outputs and findings of this work conducted from 2011 to 2016. Research areas: DengueTools organised its work into three research areas, namely [1] Early warning and surveillance systems; [2] Strategies to prevent dengue in children; and [3] Predictive models for the global spread of dengue. Research area 1 focused on case-studies undertaken in Sri Lanka, including developing laboratory-based sentinel surveillance, evaluating economic impact, identifying drivers of transmission intensity, evaluating outbreak prediction capacity and developing diagnostic capacity. Research area 2 addressed preventing dengue transmission in school children, with case-studies undertaken in Thailand. Insecticide-treated school uniforms represented an intriguing potential approach, with some encouraging results, but which were overshadowed by a lack of persistence of insecticide on the uniforms with repeated washing. Research area 3 evaluated potential global spread of dengue, particularly into dengue-naïve areas such as Europe. The role of international travel, changing boundaries of vectors, developing models of vectorial capacity under different climate change scenarios and strategies for vector control in outbreaks was all evaluated.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

DengueTools was able to make significant advances in methods for understanding and controlling dengue transmission in a range of settings. These will have implications for public health agendas to counteract dengue, including vaccination programmes.

OUTLOOK

Towards the end of the DengueTools project, Zika virus emerged as an unexpected epidemic in the central and southern America. Given the similarities between the dengue and Zika viruses, with vectors in common, some of the DengueTools thinking translated readily into the Zika situation.

On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil

The timing and origin of Zika virus (ZIKV) introduction in Brazil has been the subject of controversy. Initially, it was assumed that the virus was introduced during the FIFA World Cup in June-July 2014. Then, it was speculated that ZIKV may have been introduced by athletes from French Polynesia (FP) who competed in a canoe race in Rio de Janeiro in August 2014. We attempted to apply mathematical models to determine the most likely time window of ZIKV introduction in Brazil. Given that the timing and origin of ZIKV introduction in Brazil may be a politically sensitive issue, its determination (or the provision of a plausible hypothesis) may help to prevent undeserved blame. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the force of infection and the corresponding individual probability of being infected with ZIKV in FP. Taking into account the air travel volume from FP to Brazil between October 2013 and March 2014, we estimated the expected number of infected travellers arriving at Brazilian airports during that period. During the period between December 2013 and February 2014, 51 individuals travelled from FP airports to 11 Brazilian cities. Basing on the calculated force of ZIKV infection (the per capita rate of new infections per time unit) and risk of infection (probability of at least one new infection), we estimated that 18 (95% CI 12-22) individuals who arrived in seven of the evaluated cities were infected. When basic ZIKV reproduction numbers greater than one were assumed in the seven evaluated cities, ZIKV could have been introduced in any one of the cities. Based on the force of infection in FP, basic reproduction ZIKV number in selected Brazilian cities, and estimated travel volume, we concluded that ZIKV was most likely introduced and established in Brazil by infected travellers arriving from FP in the period between October 2013 and March 2014, which was prior to the two aforementioned sporting events.

Translation of Real-Time Infectious Disease Modeling into Routine Public Health Practice

Infectious disease dynamic modeling can support outbreak emergency responses. We conducted a workshop to canvas the needs of stakeholders in Australia for practical, real-time modeling tools for infectious disease emergencies. The workshop was attended by 29 participants who represented government, defense, general practice, and academia stakeholders. We found that modeling is underused in Australia and its potential is poorly understood by practitioners involved in epidemic responses. The development of better modeling tools is desired. Ideal modeling tools for operational use would be easy to use, clearly indicate underlying parameterization and assumptions, and assist with policy and decision making.

A review of Zika virus infections in pregnancy and implications for antenatal care in Singapore

Given the consensus that there is a causal relationship between Zika virus (ZIKV) infection in pregnancy and congenital Zika syndrome (CZS), clinicians must be prepared to manage affected patients despite the numerous gaps in current knowledge. The clinical course in pregnancy appears similar to that in non-pregnant women, although viraemia may be prolonged. ZIKV infection can be diagnosed by serum and urine reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, but commercially available serological tests are currently unreliable in dengue-endemic regions. Although vertical transmission can occur at any time during gestation, first- and second-trimester infections have the highest risk of developing central nervous system anomalies. Aberrant fetal growth and pregnancy loss may also occur. Serial ultrasonography should be conducted for infected cases. Without a vaccine, pregnant women should be advised to minimise mosquito bites and reduce sexual transmission risk. Overall, the absolute risk of CZS arising amid a ZIKV outbreak appears relatively low.

Environmental and Social Change Drive the Explosive Emergence of Zika Virus in the Americas

Since Zika virus (ZIKV) was detected in Brazil in 2015, it has spread explosively across the Americas and has been linked to increased incidence of microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). In one year, it has infected over 500,000 people (suspected and confirmed cases) in 40 countries and territories in the Americas. Along with recent epidemics of dengue (DENV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV), which are also transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes, the emergence of ZIKV suggests an ongoing intensification of environmental and social factors that have given rise to a new regime of arbovirus transmission. Here, we review hypotheses and preliminary evidence for the environmental and social changes that have fueled the ZIKV epidemic. Potential drivers include climate variation, land use change, poverty, and human movement. Beyond the direct impact of microcephaly and GBS, the ZIKV epidemic will likely have social ramifications for women's health and economic consequences for tourism and beyond.

Sulfated Glycans and Related Digestive Enzymes in the Zika Virus Infectivity: Potential Mechanisms of Virus-Host Interaction and Perspectives in Drug Discovery

As broadly reported, there is an ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in countries of Latin America. Recent findings have demonstrated that ZIKV causes severe defects on the neural development in fetuses in utero and newborns. Very little is known about the molecular mechanisms involved in the ZIKV infectivity. Potential therapeutic agents are also under investigation. In this report, the possible mechanisms of action played by glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) displayed at the surface proteoglycans of host cells, and likely in charge of interactions with surface proteins of the ZIKV, are highlighted. As is common for the most viruses, these sulfated glycans serve as receptors for virus attachment onto the host cells and consequential entry during infection. The applications of (1) exogenous sulfated glycans of different origins and chemical structures capable of competing with the virus attachment receptors (supposedly GAGs) and (2) GAG-degrading enzymes able to digest the virus attachment receptors on the cells may be therapeutically beneficial as anti-ZIKV. This communication attempts, therefore, to offer some guidance for the future research programs aimed to unveil the molecular mechanisms underlying the ZIKV infectivity and to develop therapeutics capable of decreasing the devastating consequences caused by ZIKV outbreak in the Americas.

Risk of Globalization of the Disease in Europe

Risk of dissemination of ZIKV disease is based on multiple factors, including environmental (climate, socioeconomically, deforestation or industrialization) and travel/traveller factors. Both the disease (viremic travellers) and vector movement to mosquito-free area contributes to the introduction and establishment of autochthonous ZIKV transmission. Mass gathering events can contribute to magnify transmission due to close crowd life in a confined area. Also, multitudinary events can promote the introduction of an infectious disease to a previously naïve area when returning home. Although mathematical models estimate a low risk for introduction of ZIKV in Europe, specific European regions (mainly Portuguese Island of Madeira) account with suitable and efficient vector and opportune climate conditions to harbour the disease. Clinicians should be aware to enable early detection of autochthonous ZIKV cases. International and local guidelines can help clinicians on how to handle suspicious cases, how to confirm the infection and how to report suspected and confirmed cases. In case of autochthonous ZIKV detection, public authorities should perform surveillance and provide adequate resources to sustain enhanced mosquito control.

Zika virus infection during the Olympic Games in Rio: A fear or an actual risk?

The recent outbreak of Zika virus infection in Brazil has aroused considerable media interest due to its association with neurological malformations in children born from mothers infected by the virus and to its association with Guillain-Barre syndrome in adults. This relationship has led to the World Health Organisation declaring the current epidemic as a "Public Health Emergency of International Concern". Controversy also emerged on the advisability of delaying or changing the location of the Olympic and Paralympic Games, which were held in August at various locations in Brazil. In this article, we review the available evidence on the risk of Zika and dengue virus infection in individuals who travel to endemic countries, especially for multitudinous events.