The incidence of symptomatic infection with influenza virus in the Netherlands 2011/2012 through 2016/2017, estimated using Bayesian evidence synthesis

Inference of age-dependent case-fatality ratios for seasonal influenza virus subtypes A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 and B lineages using data from the Netherlands

Background

Despite the known relatively high disease burden of influenza, data are lacking regarding a critical epidemiological indicator, the case-fatality ratio. Our objective was to infer age-group and influenza (sub)type specific values by combining modelled estimates of symptomatic incidence and influenza-attributable mortality.

Methods

The setting was the Netherlands, 2011/2012 through 2019/2020 seasons. Sentinel surveillance data from general practitioners and laboratory testing were synthesised to supply age-group specific estimates of incidence of symptomatic infection, and ecological additive modelling was used to estimate influenza-attributable deaths. These were combined in an Bayesian inferential framework to estimate case-fatality ratios for influenza A(H3N2), A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B, per 5-year age-group.

Results

Case-fatality estimates were highest for influenza A(H3N2) followed by influenza B and then A(H1N1)pdm09 and were highest for the 85+ years age-group, at 4.76% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 4.52-5.01%) for A(H3N2), followed by influenza B at 4.08% (95% CrI: 3.77-4.39%) and A(H1N1)pdm09 at 2.51% (95% CrI: 2.09-2.94%). For 55-59 through 85+ years, the case-fatality risk was estimated to double with every 3.7 years of age.

Conclusions

These estimated case-fatality ratios, per influenza sub(type) and per age-group, constitute valuable information for public health decision-making, for assessing the retrospective and prospective value of preventative interventions such as vaccination and for health economic evaluations.

Impact of influenza vaccination programmes among the elderly population on primary care, Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands: 2015/16 to 2017/18 influenza seasons

Background

To increase the acceptability of influenza vaccine, it is important to quantify the overall benefits of the vaccination programme.

Aim

To assess the impact of influenza vaccination in Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands, we estimated the number of medically attended influenza-confirmed cases (MAICC) in primary care averted in the seasons 2015/16 to 2017/18 among those ≥ 65 years.

Methods

We used an ecological approach to estimate vaccination impact. We compared the number of observed MAICC (n) to the estimated number that would have occurred without the vaccination programme (N). To estimate N, we used: (i) MAICC estimated from influenza surveillance systems, (ii) vaccine coverage, (iii) pooled (sub)type-specific influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates for seasons 2015/16 to 2017/18, weighted by the proportion of virus circulation in each season and country. We estimated the number of MAICC averted (NAE) and the prevented fraction (PF) by the vaccination programme.

Results

The annual average of NAE in the population ≥ 65 years was 33, 58 and 204 MAICC per 100,000 in Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands, respectively. On average, influenza vaccination prevented 10.7%, 10.9% and 14.2% of potential influenza MAICC each season in these countries. The lowest PF was in 2016/17 (4.9–6.1%) with an NAE ranging from 24 to 69 per 100,000.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that influenza vaccination programmes reduced a substantial number of MAICC. Together with studies on hospitalisations and deaths averted by influenza vaccination programmes, this will contribute to the evaluation of the impact of vaccination strategies and strengthen public health communication.

Associations between common respiratory viruses and invasive group A streptococcal infection: A time-series analysis

Background

Invasive infections by group A Streptococcus (iGAS, Streptococcus pyogenes) have a winter seasonality which largely coincides with the season for influenza and other respiratory viruses. Influenza superinfections with GAS have been described to occur regularly and to show a severe clinical picture with high mortality. We aimed to study the extent to which influenza A and B viruses (IAV and IBV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and rhinovirus circulation contribute to iGAS incidence and severity.

Methods

Time‐series regression models were built to explore the temporal associations between weekly laboratory counts of IAV, IBV, RSV and rhinovirus as independent variables and weekly counts of GAS disease notifications or laboratory GAS cultures as dependent variables.

Results

The weekly number of IAV detections showed a significant temporal association with the number of notifications of streptococcal toxic shock syndrome (STSS), a severe complication of iGAS. Depending on the season, up to 40% of all notified STSS cases was attributable to IAV circulation. Besides STSS, none of the other iGAS manifestations were associated with a respiratory virus.

Conclusions

Our study found an ecological temporal association between IAV and STSS, the most severe complication of iGAS. Future studies are needed to confirm this association and assess the possible preventability of STSS by influenza vaccination, especially in the age group 60 years and older.