Effects of family income and conditional cash transfers on household food insecurity: evidence from a longitudinal study in Northeast Brazil

Predictors of persistent moderate and severe food insecurity in a longitudinal survey in Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

Household food insecurity (HFI) increased in Latin America by 9% between 2019 and 2020. Scant evidence shows who was unable to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Our aim was to use a Machine Learning (ML) approach to identify consistent and influential predictors of persistent moderate or severe HFI over 2 years.

Methods

We use a three-wave longitudinal telephone survey with a probabilistic sample representative of the Mexican population. With a response rate of 51.3 and 60.8% for the second and third waves, the final sample size consisted of 1,074 individuals. The primary outcome was persistent HFI, i.e., respondents who reported moderate or severe HFI in 2021 and 2022. Twelve income-related predictors were measured in 2020, including baseline HFI. We employed 6 supervised ML algorithms to cross-validate findings in models, examined its precision with 4 standard performance indicators to assess precision, and used SHAP values (Shapley Additive exPlanations) to identify influential predictors in each model.

Results

Prevalence of persistent moderate/severe HFI in 2021 and 2022 was 8.8%. Models with only a HFI 2020 baseline measure were used as a reference for comparisons; they had an accuracy of 0.79, a Cohen's Kappa of 0.57, a sensitivity of 0.68, and a specificity of 0.88. When HFI was substituted by the suite of socioeconomic indicators, accuracy ranged from 0.70 to 0.84, Cohen's Kappa from 0.40 to 0.67, sensitivity from 0.86 to 0.90, and specificity from 0.75 to 0.82. The best performing models included baseline HFI and socioeconomic indicators; they had an accuracy between 0.81 and 0.92, a Cohen's Kappa between 0.61 and 0.85, a sensitivity from 0.74 to 0.95, and a specificity from 0.85 to 0.92. Influential and consistent predictors across the algorithms were baseline HFI, socioeconomic status (SES), adoption of financial coping strategies, and receiving government support.

Discussion

Persistent HFI can be a relevant indicator to identify households that are less responsive to food security policies. These households should be prioritized for innovative government support and monitored to assess changes. Forecasting systems of HFI can be improved with longitudinal designs including baseline measures of HFI and socioeconomic predictors.

Time living with food insecurity and socio-demographic factors: longitudinal analysis in a city in the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil

OBJECTIVE

Food insecurity (FI) is the lack of daily access for everyone to quality food in sufficient quantity. In many populations, it presents as a chronic and persistent condition. This study analysed the association between the length of time living with FI and socio-demographic conditions in households in a semi-arid municipality in the Brazilian Northeast between 2011 and 2019.

DESIGN

This is a population-based cohort study among families in the municipality in Northeast Brazil (2011, 2014 and 2019). FI was estimated through the Escala Brasileira de Insegurança Alimentar (EBIA, Brazilian Household Food Insecurity Measurement Scale), and the longitudinal category of time of living with FI was adopted to classify them according to the time they remained in FI during the cohort. The association with the socio-demographic profiles of the population was verified through multinomial logistic regression.

SETTING

Households in semi-arid, Northeast of Brazil.

PARTICIPANTS

Household respondents interviewed in 2011, 2014 and 2019 (n 274).

RESULTS

Sixty-seven percentage (67 %) of families lived in FI in this period. Rural residence, low monthly per capita income and low schooling of the household reference person increased the chances of these families living longer in FI. These overlapping conditions increased the odds of FI in the household.

CONCLUSIONS

Coping with FI requires intersectoral intervention that improves the socio-demographic conditions of the population.

Gender, skin color, and household composition explain inequities in household food insecurity in Brazil

It is well known that female-headed households (FHHs) are more likely to experience food insecurity (FI) than male-headed households (MHHs), however there is a dearth of evidence on how gender intersects with other social determinants of FI. Thus, this paper investigated changes in the prevalence of household FI in Brazil from 2004 to 2018 by the intersection of gender, race/skin color and marital status of the household reference person. Data from three cross-sectional nationally representative surveys that assessed the status of FI using the Brazilian Household Food Insecurity Measurement Scale were analyzed (N2004 = 107,731; N2013 = 115,108, N2018 = 57,204). Multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between profiles of gender, race/skin color, marital status of the head of the household with household FI stratified by the presence of children <5 years of age. Over time, FHHs had a higher prevalence of mild and moderate/severe FI than did households headed by men. Food security prevalence increased from 2004 to 2013 and decreased between 2013 and 2018 for households headed by men and women. In 2018, households headed by black/brown single mothers with children < 5 years of age were at the highest FI risk. The probability of reporting moderate/severe FI in these households were 4.17 times higher (95% CI [2.96-5.90]) than for households headed by married white men. The presence of children in the household was associated with a higher probability of moderate/severe FI, especially for households headed by black/brown individuals regardless of the reference person's gender. The results suggest that gender inequities combined with darker skin color and the presence of children at home potentiate the risk of moderate/severe FI. Policy makers need to consider the principles of intersectionality when investing in codesigning, implementing, evaluating, and scaling up evidence-based programs to reduce FI.

Food Insecurity, Healthcare Utilization, and Healthcare Expenditures: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Objective: This study examines the longitudinal association between household food insecurity and healthcare utilization and expenditure. Methods: A multi-wave longitudinal cohort study was conducted using the 2008-2019 and 2021 waves of the Korean Welfare Panel Study. The baseline data included participants aged ≥19 years with valid responses to the food insecurity and healthcare questionnaires in the 2008 wave (n = 12,166). Healthcare outcomes encompassed outpatient visits, inpatient admissions, days hospitalized, and personal healthcare expenditure. Random effects Poisson and linear regressions were estimated. Results: Severe food insecurity was associated with a higher incidence rate of outpatient visits (IRR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.12-1.17), days of hospitalization (IRR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.13-1.22), and inpatient admissions (IRR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18-1.65). Moderate food insecurity was associated with 10.4% (β = -0.11; 95% CI, -0.14 to -0.07) or 238,276 KRW reductions in personal healthcare expenditures in the subsequent year. Conclusion: Household food insecurity was linked to increased healthcare utilization and reduced personal healthcare expenditure among Korean adults. Our findings present opportunities to identify target populations for healthcare policies and interventions.

[Assessment of food insecurity in the context of COVID-19: association with emergency aid and collecting food donations among the socially vulnerable population of a capital in Northeastern Brazil]

The scope of this study was to investigate the prevalence of food insecurity in the context of COVID-19 and its association with the emergency aid income-transfer program and the collecting of food donations by the population in a situation of social vulnerability. A cross-sectional study was carried out with socially vulnerable families eight months after confirming the first case of COVID-19 in Brazil. A total of 903 families, living in 22 underprivileged communities of Maceió, in the state of Alagoas, were included. Sociodemographic characteristics were evaluated, and the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale was applied. The association of food insecurity with the variables studied was performed using Poisson regression with robust variance estimation, considering α = 5%. Of the total sample, 71.1% were food insecure, a situation associated with receiving food donations (PR = 1.14; 95%CI: 1.02; 1.27) and being a beneficiary of emergency aid (PR =1.23; 95%CI: 1.01; 1.49). The results show that the population in a situation of social vulnerability was strongly affected by food insecurity. On the other hand, the population group in question benefited from actions implemented at the outset of the pandemic.

Vitamin A deficiency and associated risk factors in children aged 12-59 months living in poorest municipalities in the South Region of Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of vitamin A deficiency (VAD) in children and associated risk factors.

DESIGN

Analysis of data from a cross-sectional multicentre study performed in the primary care units of the municipalities from January to June 2015. The children's legal guardians answered a socio-economic questionnaire, and the children's blood samples were obtained by venipuncture. Plasma retinol was determined by HPLC. Plasma retinol values of <0·70 μmol/l were considered VDA. Poisson multiple regression with robust variance was used. Values of P < 0·05 were considered significant. The data were analysed in the SPSS software, 21.0.

SETTING

Forty-eight poorest municipalities in the South Region of Brazil.

PARTICIPANTS

Children (n 1503) aged 12-59 months.

RESULTS

The prevalence of VAD in the sample was 1·9 % (95 % CI (0·5, 6·8)). The following risk factors were associated with the outcome in the final explanatory model: family received Bolsa Familia program benefits (PR = 3·19; 95 % CI (1·69, 6·02)), child was not being breastfed (PR = 5·22; 95 % CI (1·68, 16·18)) and stunting (PR = 4·75; 95 % CI (2·10, 10·73)).

CONCLUSIONS

VAD did not represent a public health problem for children living in socio-economically vulnerable municipalities in the South Region of Brazil, suggesting a new panorama of this nutritional deficiency even in regions of low socio-economic conditions in these three states. Thus, in view of the current nutritional transition scenario, it is necessary to continuously monitor and improve public policies related to vitamin A supplementation in the country.

Food insecurity and its determinants in a vulnerable area of Santiago, Chile

This study aims to identify the determinants associated to food insecurity in a group of households composed of schoolchildren and their mothers/caregivers, who lived in a low-to-medium community development index area of the city of Santiago, Chile with a high presence of migrant population. The non-probabilistic and convenience sample was made up of 646 people, who answered a series of surveys with the aim of characterizing this group in sociodemographic terms (sex, age, number of inhabitants in the household, place of food purchase, conditional or non-conditional state transfer program beneficiary status, persons in charge of purchasing food for the household, mothers/caregivers education level and basic knowledge of food and nutrition). To assess moderate-to-severe food insecurity and severe food insecurity, the Food Insecurity Experience Scale-FIES was applied between September and October 2021. Logistic regression analysis were used to carry out multivariate analyses, with the use of stepwise back-and-forward strategies for the selected variables and defining p &lt; 0.05. These models were adjusted per number of inhabitants in the household. The results indicate that 25.4% of households presented moderate-to-severe food insecurity, and 6.4% severe food insecurity experience. The variables that presented significant odds of risk to food insecurity were being a migrant, low maternal education level, low performance on basic knowledge in nutrition and when the father was responsible for food purchases. Several public policies have been implemented in Chile during the most recent decades aimed at increasing access to healthier foods and the implementation of healthier food environments. Despite this, there are still social and economic health determinants that contribute to the risk of odds insecurity for the most vulnerable groups in the country, thus putting at risk the fulfillment of the human right to adequate food at risk.

Access to governmental programs/benefits and food insecurity in urban and rural areas of Northeast Brazil

This paper analyzes food insecurity (FI) in urban and rural areas of the Northeast region of Brazil associated with certain social determinants and access to governmental benefits/programs. Data about FI from the National Household Budget Survey (2017-2018) were analyzed, including socio-economic variables and access to government benefits/programs of supplemental income (Bolsa Família, Ongoing transfer benefits, Food voucher and Food basket). Multinomial logistic regression models were performed to assess the relationship between FI and access to government programs/benefits. Half of the families in the Northeast were classified as being subject to FI, the prevalence and severity being higher in rural households. The composition of the family, with at least one retired individual, significantly reduced the probability of being FI at all levels of severity. Access to the Food basket (in cash) benefit and Bolsa Família was associated with being a factor of protection against severe FI in rural areas, while in urban areas the food voucher benefit was the main factor of protection. Income transfer programs and access to social benefits contribute to combatting FI, highlighting the importance of maintaining and scaling-up these initiatives for vulnerable populations.

Effect of a conditional cash transference program on food insecurity in Mexican households: 2012-2016

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effects of the social inclusion programme PROSPERA on food insecurity (FI) in Mexican households during 2012 and 2016.

DESIGN

Quasi-experimental study using cross-sectional data from 2012 to 2016 National Household Income and Expenditure Survey - Socioeconomic Conditions Module (in Spanish, ENIGH-MCS).

SETTING

Data were used from a 2012 sample of 56 888 Mexican households (representative of 31 206 819 households) and a 2016 sample of 70 263 Mexican households (representative of 33 445 353 households). Severity of FI was estimated with the Mexican Food Security Scale (in Spanish, EMSA). The statistical analysis estimated a differences in differences (DD) model weighted by propensity score to compare program beneficiary and non-beneficiary households in 2012 than in 2016. We estimated the effect on households with and without children (< 18 years of age). We also compared this model to a DD model without propensity score weighting.

PARTICIPANTS

Mexican households.

RESULTS

FI among all beneficiary households decreased 8·0pp as compared to non-beneficiary households over the study period. In beneficiary households with children, this decrease was 6·0pp and for beneficiary households without children, this decrease was 12·9pp (for all, P-value < 0·001).

CONCLUSIONS

The PROSPERA program had a positive effect on FI reduction at the household level through increasing food access, which usually improves nutritional outcomes in vulnerable Mexican populations.

National Trends and Disparities in Severe Food Insecurity in Brazil between 2004 and 2018

Background

The Brazilian Household Food Insecurity Measurement Scale (EBIA) is the main tool for assessing household food insecurity (FI) in Brazil and facilitates the monitoring and improvement of national public policies to promote food security. Since 2004, the Brazilian government has conducted National Household Sample Surveys, and in 2018, the government carried out the last national evaluation of FI.

Objectives

To describe trends in severe FI in Brazil from 2004 to 2018.

Methods

Data from 3 cross-sectional Brazilian National Household Sample Surveys (sample sizes: 2004 = 112,530; 2009 = 120,910; 2013 = 116,196) and from the last Household Budget Survey (sample size = 57,920) that assessed the status of FI using the EBIA were analyzed. Changes in severe FI during 2 periods (2004-2013; 2013-2018) were estimated while considering sociodemographic factors.

Results

The period between 2004 and 2013 was marked by a significant decrease in severe FI (-53.6%), but this trend reversed in 2013-2018 (+43.8%). The greatest decrease in severe FI occurred in the Northeast (-57.6%) among households where the reference person was a man (-57.6%) and self-identified as white (-58.1%) (2004-2013). In 2013-2018, households with children aged ≤4 y (+6.3%) and members aged ≥65 y (+12.5%) experienced the lowest increases in severe FI.

Conclusions

After a significant reduction from 2004 to 2013, severe FI increased sharply from 2013 to 2018, likely due to disruptions in public policies aimed at reducing hunger and unemployment rates.

Access to governmental programs/benefits and food insecurity in urban and rural areas of Northeast Brazil

Abstract This paper analyzes food insecurity (FI) in urban and rural areas of the Northeast region of Brazil associated with certain social determinants and access to governmental benefits/programs. Data about FI from the National Household Budget Survey (2017-2018) were analyzed, including socio-economic variables and access to government benefits/programs of supplemental income (Bolsa Família, Ongoing transfer benefits, Food voucher and Food basket). Multinomial logistic regression models were performed to assess the relationship between FI and access to government programs/benefits. Half of the families in the Northeast were classified as being subject to FI, the prevalence and severity being higher in rural households. The composition of the family, with at least one retired individual, significantly reduced the probability of being FI at all levels of severity. Access to the Food basket (in cash) benefit and Bolsa Família was associated with being a factor of protection against severe FI in rural areas, while in urban areas the food voucher benefit was the main factor of protection. Income transfer programs and access to social benefits contribute to combatting FI, highlighting the importance of maintaining and scaling-up these initiatives for vulnerable populations.

Changes in prevalence of overweight in adolescents living in areas highly vulnerable to food insecurity

This study ascertained changes, over 5 years, in the prevalence of overweight in adolescents and associations with socio-demographic variables and food insecurity. Two cross-sectional population-based studies were conducted with 511 (2005) and 314 (2010) adolescents resident in Campos Elíseos (Duque de Caxias-RJ). Overweight was evaluated by sex and age specific cut-off points of BMI (weight/height²). The prevalence of food insecurity was investigated using the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale. Logistic regression was used to determine the association between changes in overweight over time and sex, age, skin colour, and food insecurity. Overweight was found to increase significantly, between 2005 and 2010, in boys who were younger (from 20.1% to 49.5%), black or brown (22.2% to 37.3%), those with per capita income of up to half a minimum wage (13.6% to 32.5%) and those experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity (9.2% to 36.3%). It was concluded that overweight increased significantly in adolescents living in an area of food insecurity, and that younger, black or brown, lower-income adolescents, and those living with moderate and severe food insecurity, were more exposed to that increase.

Food insecurity and sociodemographic factors among children in São José dos Pinhais, Paraná, Brazil, 2017: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To analyze association between food insecurity (FI) and sociodemographic factors among children.

METHODS

The study was carried out from May to November 2017 with mothers of children (18 - 35 months old) enrolled at public education facilities in São José dos Pinhais, Paraná, Brazil. FI was determined by the Brazilian Household Food Insecurity Measurement Scale. Multinomial logistic regression was used with a hierarchical model.

RESULTS

395 mothers/children participated. Overall FI prevalence was 34.7% (95%CI 28.5;41.5), with prevalence of 25.7% (95%CI 19.2;32.3) for mild FI (MFI) and 9.0% (95%CI 8.5;9.4) for moderate/severe FI (MSFI). Families in the lowest income tercile had higher likelihood of MFI (OR=3.06 - 95%CI 1.26;7.41) or MSFI (OR=6.35 - 95%CI 1.89;21.4) when compared to the highest tercile. Higher MFI prevalence was identified in male children (OR=2.34 - 95%CI 1.49;3.68).

CONCLUSION

FI was associated with lower income and MFI with male children. Public policies to increase income must be included in FI reduction strategies.

Sociodemographic inequities in nurturing care for early childhood development across Brazilian municipalities

Providing an enabling nurturing care environment for early childhood development (ECD) that cuts across the five domains of the Nurturing Care Framework (i.e., good health, adequate nutrition, opportunities for early learning, security and safety and responsive caregiving) has become a global priority. Brazil is home to approximately 18.5 million children under 5 years of age, of which 13% are at risk of poor development due to socio‐economic inequalities. We explored whether the Early Childhood Friendly Municipal Index (IMAPI) can detect inequities in nurturing care ECD environments across the 5570 Brazilian municipalities. We examined the validity of the IMAPI scores and conducted descriptive analyses for assessing sociodemographic inequities by nurturing care domains and between and within regions. The strong correlations between school achievement (positive) and socially vulnerable children (negative) confirmed the IMAPI as a multidimensional nurturing care indicator. Low IMAPI scores were more frequent in the North (72.7%) and Northeast (63.3%) regions and in small (47.7%) and medium (43.3%) size municipalities. Conversely, high IMAPI scores were more frequent in the more prosperous South (52.9%) and Southeast (41.2%) regions and in metropolitan areas (41.2%). The security and safety domain had the lowest mean differences (MDs) among Brazilian regions (MD = 5) and population size (MD = 3). Between‐region analyses confirmed inequities between the North/Northeast and South/Southeast. The biggest within‐region inequity gaps were found in the Northeast (from −22 to 15) and the North (−21 to 19). The IMAPI distinguished the nurturing care ECD environments across Brazilian municipalities and can inform equitable and intersectoral multilevel decision making.

Governmental programmes associated with food insecurity among communities of descendants of enslaved blacks in Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To assess the access to government programmes and their association with food insecurity (FI) in families from quilombolas communities in Brazil.

DESIGN

An analysis of secondary data from the 2011 Quilombolas Census was performed in Brazilian territories. The Brazilian Household Food Insecurity Measurement Scale (Escala Brasileira de Insegurança Alimentar, EBIA) was used to assess the household FI status. The relationships of governmental programmes with the levels of FI were estimated using logistic regression models.

SETTING

Greater national survey census of food and nutritional security of the recognised Quilombolas Brazilian territories.

PARTICIPANTS

Totally, 8743 quilombolas families.

RESULTS

The prevalence of household FI was 86·1 % (moderate/severe FI: 55·9 %, 95 % CI 54·8, 56·9). After adjustment for socio-demographic variables, access to rural development programmes (Food Acquisition Program: OR: 0·6, 95 % CI 0·4, 0·8, P-value < 0·01) and health programmes (Center for Family Health Support: OR: 0·5, 95 % CI 0·5, 0·7, P-value < 0·001) is inversely and significantly associated with moderate/severe FI. The Brazilian conditional cash transfer programme (Bolsa Família) was associated with quilombolas families with moderate/severe levels of FI (OR: 3·3, 95 % CI 2·8, 4·0, P-value < 0·001).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of FI was high among quilombolas families. Despite reduced participation in governmental programmes, rural development, agriculture and conditional cash transfer programmes are fundamental to the autonomy of quilombolas communities. In spite of the low participation, when families are able to access these programmes, the study revealed the importance of these initiatives in reducing the likelihood of severe levels of FI.

Food Security and coexistence with the semiarid zone in areas affected by drought in the backlands of Pernambuco

ABSTRACT Objective Between 2010 and 2017, it was registered one of the most intense droughts in the Brazilian Northeastern Semiarid region, when the rainfall was below the historical level for the region. This context was related to water scarcity for human consumption and productive activities in this territory, where the semiarid backlands of the state of Pernambuco are located. The objective of this study was to assess the condition of food security and its associated factors in areas affected by drought in the semiarid zone of Pernambuco, Brazil. Methods It was a cross-sectional study on a populational base. Data were collected by socioeconomic and demographic surveys, and the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale, which were applied to 252 households, from September to October 2015. The data was analyzed by socioeconomic and demographic characterization of the households, and the identification of the food insecurity prevalence and its associated factors, by Poisson regression. Results The prevalence of food insecurity was high (74.6%). Among those, 9,1% were on starvation, which means severe insecurity. Food insecurity was statistically associated to sanitation, per capita income, and the number of household residents. Lack of money was the main self-reported cause to food insecurity. Conclusion The high prevalence of food insecurity being associated to indicators of great social vulnerability shows the role of social and economic inequities on the inadequate access to food amongst families in the semiarid zone on a nearly generalized low-income context. These findings corroborate to the evident need of expanding and reinforcing public policies, as well sustainable development models to prioritize and promote social inclusion of communities at greater vulnerabilities in the Brazilian semiarid area. Thus, the need of these economic and social public strategies is highlighted by the worsening of historical vulnerable conditions due to the cycles of droughts on this region.