Soil Emissions of Reactive Nitrogen Accelerate Summertime Surface Ozone Increases in the North China Plain

Predicting plateau atmospheric ozone concentrations by a machine learning approach: A case study of a typical city on the southwestern plateau of China

Atmospheric ozone (O3) has been placed on the priority control pollutant list in China's 14th Five-Year Plan. Due to their unique meteorological conditions, plateau regions contain high concentrations of atmospheric O3. However, traditional experimental methods for determining O3 concentrations using automatic monitoring stations cannot predict O3 trends. In this study, two machine learning models (a nonlinear auto-regressive model with external inputs (NARX) and a temporal convolution network (TCN)) were developed to predict O3 concentrations in a plateau area in the Kunming region by considering the effects of meteorological parameters, air quality parameters, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The plateau O3 prediction accuracy of the machine learning models was found to be much higher than those of numerical models that served as a comparison. The O3 values predicted by the machine learning models closely matched the actual monitoring data. The temporal distribution of plateau O3 displayed a high all-day peak from February to May. A correlation analysis between O3 concentrations and feature parameters demonstrated that humidity is the feature with the highest absolute correlation (-0.72), and was negatively correlated with O3 concentrations during all test periods. VOCs and temperatures were also found to have high positive correlation coefficients with O3 during periods of significant O3 pollution. After negating the effects of meteorological parameters, the predicted O3 concentrations decreased significantly, whereas they increased in the absence of NOx. Although individual VOCs were found to greatly affect the O3 concentration, the total VOC (TVOC) concentration had a relatively small effect. The proposed machine learning model was demonstrated to predict plateau O3 concentrations and distinguish how different features affect O3 variations.

Quantifying the contributions of meteorology, emissions, and transport to ground-level ozone in the Pearl River Delta, China

Ozone pollution presents a growing air quality threat in urban agglomerations in China. It remains challenge to distinguish the roles of emissions of precursors, chemical production and transportations in shaping the ground-level ozone trends, largely due to complicated interactions among these 3 major processes. This study elucidates the formation factors of ozone pollution and categorizes them into local emissions (anthropogenic and biogenic emissions), transport (precursor transport and direct transport from various regions), and meteorology. Particularly, we attribute meteorology, which affects biogenic emissions and chemical formation as well as transportation, to a perturbation term with fluctuating ranges. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was utilized to implement this framework, using the Pearl River Delta region as a case study, to simulate a severe ozone pollution episode in autumn 2019 that affected the entire country. Our findings demonstrate that the average impact of meteorological conditions changed consistently with the variation of ozone pollution levels, indicating that meteorological conditions can exert significant control over the degree of ozone pollution. As the maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) ozone concentrations increased from 20 % below to 30 % above the National Ambient Air Quality Standard II, contributions from emissions and precursor transport were enhanced. Concurrently, direct transport within Guangdong province rose from 13.8 % to 22.7 %, underscoring the importance of regional joint prevention and control measures under adverse weather conditions. Regarding biogenic emissions and precursor transport that cannot be directly controlled, we found that their contributions were generally greater in urban areas with high nitrogen oxides (NOx) levels, primarily due to the stronger atmospheric oxidation capacity facilitating ozone formation. Our results indicate that not only local anthropogenic emissions can be controlled in urban areas, but also the impacts of local biogenic emissions and precursor transport can be potentially regulated through reducing atmospheric oxidation capacity.

Trends and drivers of aerosol vertical distribution over China from 2013 to 2020: Insights from integrated observations and modeling

Understanding aerosol vertical distribution is of great importance to climate change and atmospheric chemistry, but there is a dearth of systematical analysis for aerosol vertical distribution amid rapid emission decline after 2013 in China. Here, the GEOS-Chem model and multiple-sourced observations were applied to quantify the changes of aerosol vertical distributions in response to clean air actions. In 2013-2020, the MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) presented extensive decreasing trends by -7.9 %/yr to -4.2 %/yr in summer and -6.1 %/yr to -5.8 %/yr in winter in polluted regions. Vertically, the aerosol extinction coefficient (AEC) from CALIPSO decreased by -8.0 %/yr to -5.5 %/yr below ~1 km, but the trends weakened significantly with increasing altitude. Compared with available measurements, the model can reasonably reproduce 2013-2020 trends and seasonality in AOD and vertical AEC. Model simulations confirm that emission reduction was the dominant driver of the 2013-2020 decline in AOD, while the effect of meteorology varied seasonally, with contributions ranging from -2 % to 13 % in summer and -67 % to -2 % in winter. Vertical distributions of emission-driven AEC trends strongly depended on emission reductions, local planetary boundary layer height, and relative humidity. For aerosol components, sulfate accounted for ~50 % of the AOD decline during summer, followed by ammonium and organic aerosol, while in winter the contribution of organic aerosol doubled (24 %-35 %), and nitrate exhibited a weak increasing trend. Chemical production and meteorological conditions (e.g., relative humidity) primarily drove the nitrate contribution, but emission reduction and hygroscopicity were decisive for other components. This work provides an integrated observational and modeling effort to better understand rapid changes in aerosol vertical distribution over China.