Dynamic material flow modeling: an effort to calibrate and validate aluminum stocks and flows in Austria

Increasing the Recycling of PVC Flooring Requires Phthalate Removal for Ensuring Consumers' Safety: A Cross-Checked Substance Flow Analysis of Plasticizers for Switzerland

As our planet grapples with the severe repercussions of plastic pollution, mechanical recycling has been proposed as a potential remedy. However, increasing mechanical recycling may have unintended negative consequences. For example, recycling of PVC flooring containing hazardous plasticizers that were used in the past may lead to continued exposure. Here we propose measures to increase recycling while circumventing adverse health impacts caused by legacy additives. For this, we conduct a dynamic substance flow analysis for Switzerland and the time period from 1950 to 2100, focusing on three plasticizers: di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), diisononyl phthalate (DiNP), and di(2-ethylhexyl) terephthalate (DEHT). We quantify the uncertainty of results, check their plausibility against measured concentrations in samples representative for the Swiss market, and compare them with modeled substance flows in Germany. Based on the cross-checked model, future average concentrations of DEHP in PVC flooring on the Swiss market are expected to be above the legal limit of 0.1 wt % for several decades if increased recycling rates are implemented without additional measures. Phasing out the potentially concerning DiNP, too, and preventing phthalates from entering recycling would lower their average market concentrations to values below 0.1 wt % and enable increasing recycling rates without compromising product safety. Analogous measures could help achieve this goal across other European countries and product groups.

The Materials Science behind Sustainable Metals and Alloys

Production of metals stands for 40% of all industrial greenhouse gas emissions, 10% of the global energy consumption, 3.2 billion tonnes of minerals mined, and several billion tonnes of by-products every year. Therefore, metals must become more sustainable. A circular economy model does not work, because market demand exceeds the available scrap currently by about two-thirds. Even under optimal conditions, at least one-third of the metals will also in the future come from primary production, creating huge emissions. Although the influence of metals on global warming has been discussed with respect to mitigation strategies and socio-economic factors, the fundamental materials science to make the metallurgical sector more sustainable has been less addressed. This may be attributed to the fact that the field of sustainable metals describes a global challenge, but not yet a homogeneous research field. However, the sheer magnitude of this challenge and its huge environmental effects, caused by more than 2 billion tonnes of metals produced every year, make its sustainability an essential research topic not only from a technological point of view but also from a basic materials research perspective. Therefore, this paper aims to identify and discuss the most pressing scientific bottleneck questions and key mechanisms, considering metal synthesis from primary (minerals), secondary (scrap), and tertiary (re-mined) sources as well as the energy-intensive downstream processing. Focus is placed on materials science aspects, particularly on those that help reduce CO₂ emissions, and less on process engineering or economy. The paper does not describe the devastating influence of metal-related greenhouse gas emissions on climate, but scientific approaches how to solve this problem, through research that can render metallurgy fossil-free. The content is considering only direct measures to metallurgical sustainability (production) and not indirect measures that materials leverage through their properties (strength, weight, longevity, functionality).

The Development Scenarios and Environmental Impacts of China's Aluminum Industry: Implications of Import and Export Transition

Aluminum is widely used in buildings, transportation, and home appliances. However, primary aluminum production is a resource, energy, and emission-intensive industrial process. As the world's largest aluminum producer, the aluminum industry (ALD) in China faces tremendous pressure on environmental protection. This study combines material flow analysis and scenario analysis to investigate the potential of resource conservation, energy saving, and emission reduction for China's ALD under the import and export trade transition. The results show China's per capita aluminum stock will follow a logistic curve to reach 415 kg/capita by 2030. However, unlike the continued build-up of stocks, domestic demand for aluminum will peak at 44 million tons (MT) in 2025 and fall to 36 MT in 2030. The scenario analysis reveals that China's primary aluminum output could peak in 2025 at around 52 MT if the restrictions are not implemented (Scenario A). Compared to Scenario A, demand for primary aluminum is effectively limited in Scenarios B and C where exports of aluminum products are reduced. Correspondingly, both scenarios also have obvious benefits in reducing the environmental load of China's ALD. Besides, if hydropower used in aluminum electrolysis increases to 25% by 2030, the total GHG emissions in 2030 will be reduced by 12%. Therefore, promoting import/export and energy mix transformation can become an essential means for the sustainable development of China's ALD.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40831-022-00582-0.

Taking Stock of Built Environment Stock Studies: Progress and Prospects

Built environment stocks (buildings and infrastructures) play multiple roles in our socio-economic metabolism: they serve as the backbone of modern societies and human well-being, drive the material cycles throughout the economy, entail temporal and spatial lock-ins on energy use and emissions, and represent an extensive reservoir of secondary materials. This review aims at providing a comprehensive and critical review of the state of the art, progress, and prospects of built environment stocks research which has boomed in the past decades. We included 249 publications published from 1985 to 2018, conducted a bibliometric analysis, and assessed the studies by key characteristics including typology of stocks (status of stock and end-use category), type of measurement (object and unit), spatial boundary and level of resolution, and temporal scope. We also highlighted the strengths and weaknesses of different estimation approaches. A comparability analysis of existing studies shows a clearly higher level of stocks per capita and per area in developed countries and cities, confirming the role of urbanization and industrialization in built environment stock growth. However, more spatially refined case studies (e.g., on developing cities and nonresidential buildings) and standardization and improvement of methodology (e.g., with geographic information system and architectural knowledge) and data (e.g., on material intensity and lifetime) would be urgently needed to reveal more robust conclusions on the patterns, drivers, and implications of built environment stocks. Such advanced knowledge on built environment stocks could foster societal and policy agendas such as urban sustainability, circular economy, climate change, and United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.

Product and Metal Stocks Accumulation of China's Megacities: Patterns, Drivers, and Implications

The rapid urbanization in China since the 1970s has led to an exponential growth of metal stocks (MS) in use in cities. A retrospect on the quantity, quality, and patterns of these MS is a prerequisite for projecting future metal demand, identifying urban mining potentials of metals, and informing sustainable urbanization strategies. Here, we deployed a bottom-up stock accounting method to estimate stocks of iron, copper, and aluminum embodied in 51 categories of products and infrastructure across 10 Chinese megacities from 1980 to 2016. We found that the MS in Chinese megacities had reached a level of 2.6-6.3 t/cap (on average 3.7 t/cap for iron, 58 kg/cap for copper, and 151 kg/cap for aluminum) in 2016, which still remained behind the level of western cities or potential saturation level on the country level (e.g., approximately 13 t/cap for iron). Economic development was identified as the most powerful driver for MS growth based on an IPAT decomposition analysis, indicating further increase in MS as China's urbanization and economic growth continues in the next decades. The latecomer cities should therefore explore a wide range of strategies, from urban planning to economy structure to regulations, for a transition toward more "metal-efficient" urbanization pathways.

Uncovering the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Urban Infrastructure Development: A High Spatial Resolution Material Stock and Flow Analysis

Understanding the complexity and sustainability of infrastructure development is crucial for reconciling economic growth, human well-being, and environmental conservation. However, previous studies on infrastructure's material metabolism were mainly conducted on a global or national scale, due largely to lack of more spatially refined data, and thus could not reveal the spatial patterns and dynamics on a city scale. Here, we integrated material flow analysis (MFA) and geographical information system (GIS) data to uncover the spatiotemporal patterns of the material stocks and flows accompanying the infrastructure development at a high spatial resolution for the case of Shanghai, China. From 1980 to 2010, material stocks and waste output flows of Shanghai's infrastructure system exhibited a significant increase from 83 to 561 million metric tons (Mt) and from 2 to 17 Mt, respectively. Input flows peaked in 2005 because of the economic slowdown and stepped-up policies to cool the housing market. Spatially, the center and peri-urban areas were the largest container of material stocks and biggest generator of demolition waste, while suburban areas absorbed 58%-76% of material inputs. Plans to make the city more compact will enhance the service capacity of stocks but may also increase the use of more energy and emissions-intensive construction materials (e.g., steel). Prolonging the service lifetime of infrastructure through proper management and increasing the recycling and reuse rate of demolition waste are also identified as highly efficient strategies.

Fully integrated modelling for sustainability assessment of resource recovery from waste

This paper presents an integrated modelling approach for value assessments, focusing on resource recovery from waste. The method tracks and forecasts a range of values across environmental, social, economic and technical domains by attaching these to material-flows, thus building upon and integrating unidimensional models such as material flow analysis (MFA) and lifecycle assessment (LCA). We argue that the usual classification of metrics into these separate domains is useful for interpreting the outputs of multidimensional assessments, but unnecessary for modelling. We thus suggest that multidimensional assessments can be better performed by integrating the calculation methods of unidimensional models rather than their outputs. To achieve this, we propose a new metric typology that forms the foundation of a multidimensional model. This enables dynamic simulations to be performed with material-flows (or values in any domain) driven by changes in value in other domains. We then apply the model in an illustrative case highlighting links between the UK coal-based electricity-production and concrete/cement industries, investigating potential impacts that may follow the increased use of low-carbon fuels (biomass and solid recovered fuels; SRF) in the former. We explore synergies and trade-offs in value across domains and regions, e.g. how changes in carbon emissions in one part of the system may affect mortality elsewhere. This highlights the advantages of recognising complex system dynamics and making high-level inferences of their effects, even when rigorous analysis is not possible. We also indicate how changes in social, environmental and economic 'values' can be understood as being driven by changes in the technical value of resources. Our work thus emphasises the advantages of building fully integrated models to inform conventional sustainability assessments, rather than applying hybrid approaches that integrate outputs from parallel models. The approach we present demonstrates that this is feasible and lays the foundations for such an integrated model.

Material Flow Analysis as a Tool to improve Waste Management Systems: The Case of Austria

This paper demonstrates the power of material flow analysis (MFA) for designing waste management (WM) systems and for supporting decisions with regards to given environmental and resource goals. Based on a comprehensive case study of a nationwide WM-system, advantages and drawbacks of a mass balance approach are discussed. Using the software STAN, a material flow system comprising all relevant inputs, stocks and outputs of wastes, products, residues, and emissions is established and quantified. Material balances on the level of goods and selected substances (C, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, N, Ni, P, Pb, Zn) are developed to characterize this WM-system. The MFA results serve well as a base for further assessments. Based on given goals, stakeholders engaged in this study selected the following seven criteria for evaluating their WM-system: (i) waste input into the system, (ii) export of waste (iii) gaseous emissions from waste treatment plants, (iv) long-term gaseous and liquid emissions from landfills, (v) waste being recycled, (vi) waste for energy recovery, (vii) total waste landfilled. By scenario analysis, strengths and weaknesses of different measures were identified. The results reveal the benefits of a mass balance approach due to redundancy, data consistency, and transparency for optimization, design, and decision making in WM.

Uncovering the Recycling Potential of "New" WEEE in China

Newly defined categories of WEEE have increased the types of China's regulated WEEE from 5 to 14. Identification of the amounts and valuable-resource components of the "new" WEEE generated is critical to solving the e-waste problem, for both governmental policy decisions and recycling enterprise expansions. This study first estimates and predicts China's new WEEE generation for the period of 2010-2030 using material flow analysis and the lifespan model of the Weibull distribution, then determines the amounts of valuable resources (e.g., base materials, precious metals, and rare-earth minerals) encased annually in WEEE, and their dynamic transfer from in-use stock to waste. Main findings include the following: (i) China will generate 15.5 and 28.4 million tons WEEE in 2020 and 2030, respectively, and has already overtaken the U.S. to become the world's leading producer of e-waste; (ii) among all the types of WEEE, air conditioners, desktop personal computers, refrigerators, and washing machines contribute over 70% of total WEEE by weight. The two categories of EEE-electronic devices and electrical appliances-each contribute about half of total WEEE by weight; (iii) more and more valuable resources have been transferred from in-use products to WEEE, significantly enhancing the recycling potential of WEEE from an economic perspective; and (iv) WEEE recycling potential has been evolving from ∼16 (10-22) billion US$ in 2010, to an anticipated ∼42 (26-58) billion US$ in 2020 and ∼73.4 (44.5-103.4) billion US$ by 2030. All the obtained results can improve the knowledge base for closing the loop of WEEE recycling, and contribute to governmental policy making and the recycling industry's business development.