Criticality of Water: Aligning Water and Mineral Resources Assessment

The importance of land in resource criticality assessment methods: A first step towards characterising supply risk

Land is a key resource for human activities under growing pressure. Resource criticality assessment methods investigate the extent to which a resource may become a limiting factor according to various dimensions, including geological, economic and geopolitical availability. They have been applied to resources like minerals, fossil fuels, biotic material or water, but none consider land resources, i.e. natural land units providing space and support for human activities. Based on two recognised criticality methods developed by i) the Yale University and ii) the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, this study aims to develop spatialized land supply risk indexes at country level. The accessibility of raw resources can be quantified and compared using the supply risk index. The specific characteristics of land call for certain adaptations of the criticality approach, and are designed to ensure comparability between resources. The main adaptations include the definition of land stress and the internal land concentration index. Land stress represents the physical availability of land, while internal land concentration relates to the concentration of landowners within a country. Finally, land supply risk indexes are computed for 76 countries, including 24 European countries for which the results of the two criticality methods are compared. Comparison points to divergences in the countries ranking for land accessibility, thus underlining the importance of methodological choices in the construction of the indexes. Data quality is discussed for European countries with the JRC method, and the use of alternative data sources reveals that it may lead to differences in absolute values, although the ranking of countries with low or high land supply risk does not change. Finally, this work covers a gap in criticality methods by including land resources. These resources can be critical for certain countries, and are essential for human activities such as food or energy production.

Win-Win: Anthropogenic circularity for metal criticality and carbon neutrality

Resource depletion and environmental degradation have fueled a burgeoning discipline of anthropogenic circularity since the 2010s. It generally consists of waste reuse, remanufacturing, recycling, and recovery. Circular economy and "zero-waste" cities are sweeping the globe in their current practices to address the world's grand concerns linked to resources, the environment, and industry. Meanwhile, metal criticality and carbon neutrality, which have become increasingly popular in recent years, denote the material's feature and state, respectively. The goal of this article is to determine how circularity, criticality, and neutrality are related. Upscale anthropogenic circularity has the potential to expand the metal supply and, as a result, reduce metal criticality. China barely accomplished 15 % of its potential emission reduction by recycling iron, copper, and aluminum. Anthropogenic circularity has a lot of room to achieve a win-win objective, which is to reduce metal criticality while also achieving carbon neutrality in a near closed-loop cycle. Major barriers or challenges for conducting anthropogenic circularity are deriving from the inadequacy of life-cycle insight governance and the emergence of anthropogenic circularity discipline. Material flow analysis and life cycle assessment are the central methodologies to identify the hidden problems. Mineral processing and smelting, as well as end-of-life management, are indicated as critical priority areas for enhancing anthropogenic circularity.

Electronic Supplementary Material

Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at 10.1007/s11783-023-1623-2 and is accessible for authorized users.

Multiperspective-driven factorial metabolic network analysis framework for energy-water nexus vulnerability assessment and management-policy simulation

Energy and water are rapidly consumed as the most basic strategic resources of various nations. It is of vital importance to systematically explore the environmental and economic impacts of energy-water co-management policies. This study is to develop a multiperspective-driven factorial metabolic network analysis framework (MPDF) to (a) investigate the direct/indirect/total resource consumption response mechanisms induced by changes in production and consumption; (b) explore the factor interactions of different policies in diverse energy and water metabolic networks by initiating factorial analysis; (c) quantify the economic effects of co-management policies by proposing multiple vulnerability indicators. A typical energy-dependent region, Shanxi Province, China was selected as a case study. The results indicated that the production- and consumption-oriented policies have various guidelines for reducing direct and indirect energy-water consumption. Significant interactions in simulation results suggest synergistic effects across sectors. Considering that Shanxi's energy-water nexus economic vulnerability is as high as 2.22%, it is recommended to prioritize the allocation of resources to sectors with significant factor effects to avoid economic losses. Implementing corresponding resource conservation policies for light industry, machinery manufacturing, construction can reduce water consumption by 18.8%. The findings are expected to provide a solid scientific basis for formulating co-management strategies to alleviate resource scarcities.

Trade-related water scarcity risk under the Belt and Road Initiative

Increasing trade cooperation under the Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative has promoted economic development and intensified the water scarcity risk transmission between China and countries along the route (B&R countries). Local water scarcity risk (LWSR, the potential direct production losses induced by local water scarcity) can transcend geographical boundaries through global supply chains and influence production activities in downstream economies. To understand the vulnerability of the Initiative to water scarcity, we investigated the impacts of LWSR in China and B&R countries on each other's economies during 2001-2013, using a global environmentally extended multi-regional input-output model. Results reveal that more than 80% of China's trade-related water scarcity risk imports (TWSR imports, the vulnerability to foreign water scarcity risk through imports) originates from B&R countries. The share of TWSR from China in total imports of B&R countries has steadily increased. In particular, India, Thailand, Iran, Pakistan and Kazakhstan have the largest TWSR exports (LWSR in each nation transmitted to other nations through its exports) to China, while South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia have the largest imports from China. Water scarcity to their Agriculture sectors is responsible for TWSR transmission between them. Our study can contribute to the policy-making of governments and firms involved in mitigating the supply chain wide water scarcity risk. It also reveals the need for nations to collectively manage water resources to achieve sustainable development.

Recovery of Critical Metals from Aqueous Sources

Critical metals, identified from supply, demand, imports, and market factors, include rare earth elements (REE), platinum group metals, precious metals, and other valuable metals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and uranium. Extraction of metals from U.S. saline aqueous, emphasizing saline, sources is explored as an alternative to hardrock ore mining. Potential aqueous sources include seawater, desalination brines, oil-and-gas produced waters, geothermal aquifers, and acid mine drainage, among others. A feasibility assessment reveals opportunities for recovery of lithium, strontium, magnesium, and several REE from select sources, in quantities significant for U.S. manufacturing and for reduction of U.S. reliance on international supply chains. This is a conservative assessment given that water quality data are lacking for a significant number of critical metals in certain sources. The technology landscape for extraction and recovery of critical metals from aqueous sources is explored, identifying relevant processes along with knowledge gaps. Our analysis indicates that aqueous mining would result in much lower environmental impacts on water, air, and land than ore mining. Preliminary assessments of the economics and energy consumption of recovery show potential for recovery of critical metals.

Economic sensitivity analysis of dual perspectives induced by energy scarcity for energy-dependent region

Rapid industrialization leads to potential energy scarcity. The formulation of energy intervention can alleviate the economic losses caused by insufficient energy inputs in advance. In this study, the energy dependency and sensitivity quantification model (EDSQ) is firstly developed to evaluate the impacts of insufficient energy support on economic development under network-based perspective and sector-based perspective. A special case study for the Province of Shanxi, China, is conducted to illustrate the potential benefits of its use in the formulation of energy intervention for energy-dependent regions. Seven energy groups are explored to gain more insights into the impacts of specific energy groups on energy metabolism and the complicated interactions among sectors. It is found that the energy metabolism of Shanxi is under an unhealthy state. The internal flows are dominated by exploitation and competitive relationships, which is not conducive to effective energy metabolism. The hierarchy analysis indicates that the pulling force is hardly affected by the classified energy groups but the driving force is sensitive, which further reveals that the producers can choose different energy sources according to their production structure. Faced with potential energy scarcity, the shortage of coal may bring considerable economic losses. The energy intervention should be formulated for the sectors that are less dependent on energy. However, it is not recommended to curb energy use in the petroleum, coking, nuclear fuel processing and coal mining sectors, because their sectoral losses can impose significant losses to the entire network. Thus, the scientific results of this study can provide academic support for quantifying the impact of potential energy scarcity, and guide the formulation of energy intervention to achieve sustainable development for energy-dependent regions.

Overview and recommendations for regionalized life cycle impact assessment

PURPOSE

Regionalized life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) has rapidly developed in the past decade, though its widespread application, robustness, and validity still faces multiple challenges. Under the umbrella of UNEP/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative, a dedicated cross-cutting working group on regionalized LCIA aims to provides an overview of the status of regionalization in LCIA methods. We give guidance and recommendations to harmonize and support regionalization in LCIA for developers of LCIA methods, LCI databases, and LCA software.

METHOD

A survey of current practice among regionalized LCIA method developers was conducted. The survey included questions on chosen method spatial resolution and scale, the spatial resolution of input parameters, choice of native spatial resolution and limitations, operationalization and alignment with life cycle inventory data, methods for spatial aggregation, the assessment of uncertainty from input parameters and model structure, and variability due to spatial aggregation. Recommendations are formulated based on the survey results and extensive discussion by the authors.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Survey results indicate that majority of regionalized LCIA models have global coverage. Native spatial resolutions are generally chosen based on the availability of global input data. Annual modelled or measured elementary flow quantities are mostly used for aggregating characterization factors (CFs) to larger spatial scales, although some use proxies, such as population counts. Aggregated CFs are mostly available at the country level. Although uncertainty due to input parameter, model structure, and spatial aggregation are available for some LCIA methods, they are rarely implemented for LCA studies. So far, there is no agreement if a finer native spatial resolution is the best way to reduce overall uncertainty. When spatially differentiated models CFs are not easily available, archetype models are sometimes developed.

CONCLUSIONS

Regionalized LCIA methods should be provided as a transparent and consistent set of data and metadata using standardized data formats. Regionalized CFs should include both uncertainty and variability. In addition to the native-scale CFs, aggregated CFs should always be provided, and should be calculated as the weighted averages of constituent CFs using annual flow quantities as weights whenever available. This paper is an important step forward for increasing transparency, consistency and robustness in the development and application of regionalized LCIA methods.

Virtual Water Scarcity Risk to the Global Trade System

Local water scarcity risk (LWSR, meaning potential economic output losses in water-using sectors due to physical water scarcity) can be transmitted to downstream economies through the globalized supply chains. To understand the vulnerability of the global economy to water scarcity, we examine the impacts of local water scarcity risk on the global trade system from 1995 to 2009. We observe increasingly intensified geographical separation between physical water scarcity and production losses due to water scarcity. We identify top nation-sectors in virtual water scarcity risk (VWSR) exports (indicating local water scarcity risk in each nation transmitted to foreign nations through its exports), including agriculture and utilities in major economies such as China, India, Spain, France, and Turkey. These nation-sectors are critical to the resilience of the global economy to water scarcity. We also identify top nation-sectors in virtual water scarcity risk imports (indicating each nation's vulnerability to foreign water scarcity risk through the global trade system), highlighting their vulnerability to distant water scarcity. Our findings reveal the need for nations to collaboratively manage and conserve water resources, and lay the foundation for firms in high VWSR-importing sectors to develop strategies to mitigate such risk.