Quantitative Structure–Price Relationship (QS$R) Modeling and the Development of Economically Feasible Drug Discovery Projects

DrugGym: A testbed for the economics of autonomous drug discovery

Drug discovery is stochastic. The effectiveness of candidate compounds in satisfying design objectives is unknown ahead of time, and the tools used for prioritization-predictive models and assays-are inaccurate and noisy. In a typical discovery campaign, thousands of compounds may be synthesized and tested before design objectives are achieved, with many others ideated but deprioritized. These challenges are well-documented, but assessing potential remedies has been difficult. We introduce DrugGym, a framework for modeling the stochastic process of drug discovery. Emulating biochemical assays with realistic surrogate models, we simulate the progression from weak hits to sub-micromolar leads with viable ADME. We use this testbed to examine how different ideation, scoring, and decision-making strategies impact statistical measures of utility, such as the probability of program success within predefined budgets and the expected costs to achieve target candidate profile (TCP) goals. We also assess the influence of affinity model inaccuracy, chemical creativity, batch size, and multi-step reasoning. Our findings suggest that reducing affinity model inaccuracy from 2 to 0.5 pIC50 units improves budget-constrained success rates tenfold. DrugGym represents a realistic testbed for machine learning methods applied to the hit-to-lead phase. Source code is available at www.drug-gym.org.

Accurate predictions of aqueous solubility of drug molecules via the multilevel graph convolutional network (MGCN) and SchNet architectures

Deep learning based methods have been widely applied to predict various kinds of molecular properties in the pharmaceutical industry with increasingly more success. In this study, we propose two novel models for aqueous solubility predictions, based on the Multilevel Graph Convolutional Network (MGCN) and SchNet architectures, respectively. The advantage of the MGCN lies in the fact that it could extract the graph features of the target molecules directly from the (3D) structural information; therefore, it doesn't need to rely on a lot of intra-molecular descriptors to learn the features, which are of significance for accurate predictions of the molecular properties. The SchNet performs well in modelling the interatomic interactions inside a molecule, and such a deep learning architecture is also capable of extracting structural information and further predicting the related properties. The actual accuracy of these two novel approaches was systematically benchmarked with four different independent datasets. We found that both the MGCN and SchNet models performed well for aqueous solubility predictions. In the future, we believe such promising predictive models will be applicable to enhancing the efficiency of the screening, crystallization and delivery of drug molecules, essentially as a useful tool to promote the development of molecular pharmaceutics.