Predicting the Rate of Skin Penetration Using an Aggregated Conformal Prediction Framework

Penetration pathways, influencing factors and predictive models for dermal absorption of exobiotic molecules: A critical review

This review provides a comprehensive summary of the skin penetration pathways of xenobiotics, including metals, organic pollutants, and nanoparticles (NPs), with a particular focus on the methodologies employed to elucidate these penetration routes. The impacts of the physicochemical properties of exogenous substances and the properties of solvent carriers on the penetration efficiencies were discussed. Furthermore, the review outlines the steady-state and transient models for predicting the skin permeability of xenobiotics, emphasizing the models which enable realistic visualization of pharmaco-kinetic phenomena via detailed geometric representations of the skin microstructure, such as stratum corneum (SC) (bricks and mortar) and skin appendages (hair follicles and sebaceous gland units). Limitations of published research, gaps in current knowledge, and recommendations for future research are highlighted, providing insight for a better understanding of the skin penetration behavior of xenobiotics and associated health risks in practical application contexts.

FP-ADMET: a compendium of fingerprint-based ADMET prediction models

MOTIVATION

The absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity (ADMET) of drugs plays a key role in determining which among the potential candidates are to be prioritized. In silico approaches based on machine learning methods are becoming increasing popular, but are nonetheless limited by the availability of data. With a view to making both data and models available to the scientific community, we have developed FPADMET which is a repository of molecular fingerprint-based predictive models for ADMET properties. In this article, we have examined the efficacy of fingerprint-based machine learning models for a large number of ADMET-related properties. The predictive ability of a set of 20 different binary fingerprints (based on substructure keys, atom pairs, local path environments, as well as custom fingerprints such as all-shortest paths) for over 50 ADMET and ADMET-related endpoints have been evaluated as part of the study. We find that for a majority of the properties, fingerprint-based random forest models yield comparable or better performance compared with traditional 2D/3D molecular descriptors.

AVAILABILITY

The models are made available as part of open access software that can be downloaded from https://gitlab.com/vishsoft/fpadmet .

Uncertainty quantification in drug design

Machine learning and artificial intelligence are increasingly being applied to the drug-design process as a result of the development of novel algorithms, growing access, the falling cost of computation and the development of novel technologies for generating chemically and biologically relevant data. There has been recent progress in fields such as molecular de novo generation, synthetic route prediction and, to some extent, property predictions. Despite this, most research in these fields has focused on improving the accuracy of the technologies, rather than on quantifying the uncertainty in the predictions. Uncertainty quantification will become a key component in autonomous decision making and will be crucial for integrating machine learning and chemistry automation to create an autonomous design-make-test-analyse cycle. This review covers the empirical, frequentist and Bayesian approaches to uncertainty quantification, and outlines how they can be used for drug design. We also outline the impact of uncertainty quantification on decision making.

KnowTox: pipeline and case study for confident prediction of potential toxic effects of compounds in early phases of development

Risk assessment of newly synthesised chemicals is a prerequisite for regulatory approval. In this context, in silico methods have great potential to reduce time, cost, and ultimately animal testing as they make use of the ever-growing amount of available toxicity data. Here, KnowTox is presented, a novel pipeline that combines three different in silico toxicology approaches to allow for confident prediction of potentially toxic effects of query compounds, i.e. machine learning models for 88 endpoints, alerts for 919 toxic substructures, and computational support for read-across. It is mainly based on the ToxCast dataset, containing after preprocessing a sparse matrix of 7912 compounds tested against 985 endpoints. When applying machine learning models, applicability and reliability of predictions for new chemicals are of utmost importance. Therefore, first, the conformal prediction technique was deployed, comprising an additional calibration step and per definition creating internally valid predictors at a given significance level. Second, to further improve validity and information efficiency, two adaptations are suggested, exemplified at the androgen receptor antagonism endpoint. An absolute increase in validity of 23% on the in-house dataset of 534 compounds could be achieved by introducing KNNRegressor normalisation. This increase in validity comes at the cost of efficiency, which could again be improved by 20% for the initial ToxCast model by balancing the dataset during model training. Finally, the value of the developed pipeline for risk assessment is discussed using two in-house triazole molecules. Compared to a single toxicity prediction method, complementing the outputs of different approaches can have a higher impact on guiding toxicity testing and de-selecting most likely harmful development-candidate compounds early in the development process.

Discrimination of Different Species of Dendrobium with an Electronic Nose Using Aggregated Conformal Predictor

A method using electronic nose to discriminate 10 different species of dendrobium, which is a kind of precious herb with medicinal application, was developed with high efficiency and low cost. A framework named aggregated conformal prediction was applied to make predictions with accuracy and reliability for E-nose detection. This method achieved a classification accuracy close to 80% with an average improvement of 6.2% when compared with the results obtained by using traditional inductive conformal prediction. It also provided reliability assessment to show more comprehensive information for each prediction. Meanwhile, two main indicators of conformal predictor, validity and efficiency, were also compared and discussed in this work. The result shows that the approach integrating electronic nose with aggregated conformal prediction to classify the species of dendrobium with reliability and validity is promising.

Predicting Skin Permeability by Means of Computational Approaches: Reliability and Caveats in Pharmaceutical Studies

The skin is the main barrier between the internal body environment and the external one. The characteristics of this barrier and its properties are able to modify and affect drug delivery and chemical toxicity parameters. Therefore, it is not surprising that permeability of many different compounds has been measured through several in vitro and in vivo techniques. Moreover, many different in silico approaches have been used to identify the correlation between the structure of the permeants and their permeability, to reproduce the skin behavior, and to predict the ability of specific chemicals to permeate this barrier. A significant number of issues, like interlaboratory variability, experimental conditions, data set building rationales, and skin site of origin and hydration, still prevent us from obtaining a definitive predictive skin permeability model. This review wants to show the main advances and the principal approaches in computational methods used to predict this property, to enlighten the main issues that have arisen, and to address the challenges to develop in future research.

Evaluating Molecular Properties Involved in Transport of Small Molecules in Stratum Corneum: A Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship for Skin Permeability

The skin permeability (Kp) defines the rate of a chemical penetrating across the stratum corneum. This value is widely used to quantitatively describe the transport of molecules in the outermost layer of epidermal skin and indicate the significance of skin absorption. This study defined a Kp quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) based on 106 chemical substances of Kp measured using human skin and interpreted the molecular interactions underlying transport behavior of small molecules in the stratum corneum. The Kp QSAR developed in this study identified four molecular descriptors that described the molecular cyclicity in the molecule reflecting local geometrical environments, topological distances between pairs of oxygen and chlorine atoms, lipophilicity, and similarity to antineoplastics in molecular properties. This Kp QSAR considered the octanol-water partition coefficient to be a direct influence on transdermal movement of molecules. Moreover, the Kp QSAR identified a sub-domain of molecular properties initially defined to describe the antineoplastic resemblance of a compound as a significant factor in affecting transdermal permeation of solutes. This finding suggests that the influence of molecular size on the chemical’s skin-permeating capability should be interpreted with other relevant physicochemical properties rather than being represented by molecular weight alone.

A confidence predictor for logD using conformal regression and a support-vector machine

Lipophilicity is a major determinant of ADMET properties and overall suitability of drug candidates. We have developed large-scale models to predict water–octanol distribution coefficient (logD) for chemical compounds, aiding drug discovery projects. Using ACD/logD data for 1.6 million compounds from the ChEMBL database, models are created and evaluated by a support-vector machine with a linear kernel using conformal prediction methodology, outputting prediction intervals at a specified confidence level. The resulting model shows a predictive ability of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\hbox {Q}^{2}=0.973$$\end{document}Q2=0.973 and with the best performing nonconformity measure having median prediction interval of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\pm ~0.39$$\end{document}±0.39 log units at 80% confidence and \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\pm ~0.60$$\end{document}±0.60 log units at 90% confidence. The model is available as an online service via an OpenAPI interface, a web page with a molecular editor, and we also publish predictive values at 90% confidence level for 91 M PubChem structures in RDF format for download and as an URI resolver service.

Perspectives from the NanoSafety Modelling Cluster on the validation criteria for (Q)SAR models used in nanotechnology

Nanotechnology and the production of nanomaterials have been expanding rapidly in recent years. Since many types of engineered nanoparticles are suspected to be toxic to living organisms and to have a negative impact on the environment, the process of designing new nanoparticles and their applications must be accompanied by a thorough risk analysis. (Quantitative) Structure-Activity Relationship ([Q]SAR) modelling creates promising options among the available methods for the risk assessment. These in silico models can be used to predict a variety of properties, including the toxicity of newly designed nanoparticles. However, (Q)SAR models must be appropriately validated to ensure the clarity, consistency and reliability of predictions. This paper is a joint initiative from recently completed European research projects focused on developing (Q)SAR methodology for nanomaterials. The aim was to interpret and expand the guidance for the well-known "OECD Principles for the Validation, for Regulatory Purposes, of (Q)SAR Models", with reference to nano-(Q)SAR, and present our opinions on the criteria to be fulfilled for models developed for nanoparticles.