An Advanced Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network Method for Predicting Rate of Penetration (ROP)

ROP Prediction Method Based on PCA-Informer Modeling

Increasing the rate of penetration (ROP) is an effective means to improve the drilling efficiency. At present, the efficiency and accuracy of intelligent prediction methods for the rate of penetration still need to be improved. To improve the efficiency and accuracy of rate of penetration prediction, this paper proposes a ROP prediction model based on Informer optimized by principal component analysis (PCA). We take the Taipei Basin block oilfield as an example. First, we use principal component analysis to extract data features, transforming the original data into low-dimensional feature data. Second, we use the PCA-optimized data to build an Informer model for predicting ROP. Finally, combined with actual data and using the recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) as baselines, we perform algorithm performance comparative analysis using root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R 2). The results show that the average MAE, RMSE, and R 2 of the PCA-Informer model are 9.402, 0.172, and 0.858, respectively. Compared with other methods, it has a larger R 2 and smaller RMSE and MAPE, indicating that this method significantly outperforms existing methods and provides a new solution to improve the rate of penetration in actual drilling operations.

Real-time prediction of ROP based on GRU-Informer

Accurate ROP (rate of penetration) prediction contributes to better production task planning, ensuring efficient production line operation, and reducing production costs. ROP prediction is influenced by multiple factors, making accurate prediction challenging. Current research primarily relies on historical data for training and modeling, lacking methods for real-time ROP prediction. This paper introduces a GRU-Informer model for real-time ROP prediction. The model employs GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) neural networks at the lower level to capture short-term correlations in drilling parameters and uses the Informer model at the top to address long-term dependencies among drilling parameters. Thus, the GRU-Informer can capture both short-term and long-term time dependencies, providing better ROP predictions. This paper constructs a dataset using historical data from a southwestern Chinese oil field for experimentation. RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), MAE (mean absolute error) and [Formula: see text] (Coefficient of Determination) are employed as evaluation metrics for the model. Experimental results demonstrate that the GRU-Informer outperforms traditional recurrent neural networks like LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), GRU neural networks and Informer in real-time ROP prediction, indicating its practical value.