Parameter Estimation in Batch Bioreactor Simulation Using Metabolic Models: Sequential Solution with Direct Sensitivities

Reaction kinetics determination and uncertainty analysis for the synthesis of the cancer drug lomustine

Fast and reliable model development frameworks are required to support current trends in modernization of pharmaceutical processing, promoting the use of digital platforms to assist process design and operation. In this work, we use a parameter estimation framework built into the PharmaPy library to determine rate parameters and uncertainty regions of different mechanistic and semi-empirical kinetic expressions for the synthesis of the drug lomustine. The parameter estimation procedure was complemented by identifiability analysis, resulting in simplified reaction mechanisms. Comparison of parameters and their uncertainty in process design was demonstrated through design space analysis, showing important differences in model prediction and the extent of their corresponding design spaces. The results of this work can serve to analyze lomustine manufacturing processes that include separation and isolation steps, where parametric sensitivity is expected to propagate along the manufacturing line and impact process feasible operation, and attainment of critical quality attributes of the product.

Scalable nonlinear programming framework for parameter estimation in dynamic biological system models

We present a nonlinear programming (NLP) framework for the scalable solution of parameter estimation problems that arise in dynamic modeling of biological systems. Such problems are computationally challenging because they often involve highly nonlinear and stiff differential equations as well as many experimental data sets and parameters. The proposed framework uses cutting-edge modeling and solution tools which are computationally efficient, robust, and easy-to-use. Specifically, our framework uses a time discretization approach that: i) avoids repetitive simulations of the dynamic model, ii) enables fully algebraic model implementations and computation of derivatives, and iii) enables the use of computationally efficient nonlinear interior point solvers that exploit sparse and structured linear algebra techniques. We demonstrate these capabilities by solving estimation problems for synthetic human gut microbiome community models. We show that an instance with 156 parameters, 144 differential equations, and 1,704 experimental data points can be solved in less than 3 minutes using our proposed framework (while an off-the-shelf simulation-based solution framework requires over 7 hours). We also create large instances to show that the proposed framework is scalable and can solve problems with up to 2,352 parameters, 2,304 differential equations, and 20,352 data points in less than 15 minutes. The proposed framework is flexible and easy-to-use, can be broadly applied to dynamic models of biological systems, and enables the implementation of sophisticated estimation techniques to quantify parameter uncertainty, to diagnose observability/uniqueness issues, to perform model selection, and to handle outliers.

Constructing and validating dynamic models of biological systems spanning biomolecular networks to ecological systems is a challenging problem. Here we present a scalable computational framework to rapidly infer parameters in complex dynamic models of biological systems from large-scale experimental data. The framework was applied to infer parameters of a synthetic microbial community model from large-scale time series data. We also demonstrate that this framework can be used to analyze parameter uncertainty, to diagnose whether the experimental data are sufficient to uniquely determine the parameters, to determine the model that best describes the data, and to infer parameters in the face of data outliers.

Genome scale models of yeast: towards standardized evaluation and consistent omic integration

Genome scale models (GEMs) have enabled remarkable advances in systems biology, acting as functional databases of metabolism, and as scaffolds for the contextualization of high-throughput data. In the case of Saccharomyces cerevisiae (budding yeast), several GEMs have been published and are currently used for metabolic engineering and elucidating biological interactions. Here we review the history of yeast's GEMs, focusing on recent developments. We study how these models are typically evaluated, using both descriptive and predictive metrics. Additionally, we analyze the different ways in which all levels of omics data (from gene expression to flux) have been integrated in yeast GEMs. Relevant conclusions and current challenges for both GEM evaluation and omic integration are highlighted.

Kinetic modeling of cell metabolism for microbial production

Kinetic models of cellular metabolism are important tools for the rational design of metabolic engineering strategies and to explain properties of complex biological systems. The recent developments in high-throughput experimental data are leading to new computational approaches for building kinetic models of metabolism. Herein, we briefly survey the available databases, standards and software tools that can be applied for kinetic models of metabolism. In addition, we give an overview about recently developed ordinary differential equations (ODE)-based kinetic models of metabolism and some of the main applications of such models are illustrated in guiding metabolic engineering design. Finally, we review the kinetic modeling approaches of large-scale networks that are emerging, discussing their main advantages, challenges and limitations.