Multivariate evaluation of factors affecting recurrence, progression, and survival in patients with superficial bladder cancer treated with intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin (Tokyo 172 strain) therapy: significance of concomitant carcinoma in situ

Carcinoma In Situ (CIS): Is There a Difference in Efficacy between Various BCG Strains? A Comprehensive Review of the Literature

Introduction: Intravesical Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunotherapy is the standard of care for high-risk and intermediate-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) as well as for Carcinoma in situ (CIS). Evidence supports that the different BCG strains, despite genetic variability, are equally effective clinically for preventing the recurrence and progression of papillary NMIBC. The available evidence regarding possible differences in clinical efficacy between various BCG strains in CIS is lacking. Methods: We reviewed the literature on the efficacy of different BCG strains in patients with CIS (whether primary, secondary, concomitant, or unifocal/multifocal), including randomized clinical trials (RCTs), phase II/prospective trials, and retrospective studies with complete response rates (CRR), recurrence-free survival (RFS), or progression-free survival (PFS) as endpoints. Results: In most studies, being RCTs, phase II prospective trials, or retrospective studies, genetic differences between BCG strains did not translate into meaningful differences in clinical efficacy against CIS, regardless of the CIS subset (primary, secondary, or concurrent) or CIS focality (unifocal or multifocal). CRR, RFS, and PFS were not statistically different between various BCG strains. None of these trials were designed as head-to-head comparisons between BCG strains focusing specifically on CIS. Limitations include the small sample size of many studies and most comparisons between strains being indirect rather than head-to-head. Conclusions: This review suggests that the clinical efficacy of the various BCG strains appears similar, irrespective of CIS characteristics. However, based on the weak level of evidence available and underpowered studies, randomized studies in this space should be encouraged as no definitive conclusion can be drawn at this stage.

Systematic Review of the Therapeutic Efficacy of Bladder-preserving Treatments for Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer Following Intravesical Bacillus Calmette-Guérin

CONTEXT

There is a critical need for effective bladder-sparing therapies for bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG)-unresponsive non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). Owing to the current lack of effective agents that can be used as a control, the US Food and Drug Administration began to accept single-arm trials for patients with carcinoma in situ (CIS), using complete response rate (CRR) and duration of response as the primary endpoints to support marketing applications. Despite the ensuing growth of clinical trials in this space, no consensus exists on a clinically relevant benchmark for CRR.

OBJECTIVE

To elucidate the CRR and recurrence-free rate (RFR) using bladder-sparing agents after BCG failure in order to provide a frame of reference for future clinical trial results.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

We performed a systematic review of clinical trials utilizing bladder-sparing therapeutics for NMIBC recurring after intravesical BCG (PROSPERO CRD42019130553). The search was performed in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library. Relevant studies identified from bibliography search and conference abstracts were searched to complement the systematic review. A total of 42 studies utilizing 24 treatment options and consisting of 2254 patients were included for final analysis.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Median CRRs in the treatment of CIS-containing tumors were 26% at 6 mo, 17% at 12 mo, and 8% at 24 mo after treatment. In comparison, median RFRs in the papillary-only studies were 67% at 6 mo, 44% at 12 mo, and 10% at 24 mo. Specifically in the BCG-unresponsive population, 6- and 12-mo CRRs in CIS-containing patients treated with Mycobacterium phlei cell wall-nucleic acid complex were 45% and 27%, respectively, and the median 6-, 12-, and 24-mo disease-free rates in the other studies were 43%, 35%, and 18%, respectively. The median progression-free rate was 91%: 95% in the CIS-containing studies and 89% in studies restricted to papillary-only recurrences. Toxicities of intravesical agents were generally mild, with very few dose limiting toxicities.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate that, to date, bladder-sparing therapies achieved modest efficacy in patients with NMIBC after BCG. Results from the current study will serve as a frame of reference for emerging trial results in the BCG-unresponsive space.

PATIENT SUMMARY

In this study, we found that bladder-sparing therapies achieved modest efficacy in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer after bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG). These results will serve to inform future clinical trial results for salvage agents used to treat BCG-unresponsive bladder cancer.

Predictors of Response to Intravesical Therapy

Despite the 40-year reign of bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) as the most effective immunotherapy in urologic cancers, a lack of clinical tools to predict treatment response has hampered progress in the field. Acting as an immunostimulatory agent against a multitude of phenotypically diverse non-muscle-invasive bladder cancers, response to BCG likely depends on both tumor characteristics as well as host factors. With a deeper understanding of the tumor biology as well as the mechanism of action underpinning immunotherapy, newer and more effective clinical tools are being constructed to improve patient selection.

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) Treatment Failures in Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer: What Truly Constitutes Unresponsive Disease

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) remains the most effective intravesical therapy for non-muscle invasive bladder cancer but will fail in up to 40% of patients. The ability to identify patients who are least likely to respond to further BCG therapy allows urologists to pursue secondary treatments more likely to convey a recurrence or survival benefit to the patient. We examined the literature to determine what constitutes BCG unresponsive disease. After review, we believe that BCG unresponsive disease should be defined as (1) patients with recurrent high grade T1 disease within 6 months of their primary tumor after at least one course of BCG or patients who have failed at least 2 courses of BCG with either (2) persistent or recurrent pure papillary (Ta) disease within 6 months or (3) persistent or recurrent carcinoma in situ (CIS) within 12 months.

Prognostic value of preoperative pyuria in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the prognostic value of preoperative pyuria in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed data from 237 patients diagnosed with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Pyuria was defined as urine containing ≥5 white blood cells per high power field. The association between clinicopathological factors and recurrence was assessed by Cox univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

Preoperative pyuria was found in 116 (49.0%) patients. Pyuria was significantly associated with advanced age, positive cytology, multiple tumors, large tumor size, non-papillary tumors, T1 tumors and high-grade tumors. In univariate analysis of the entire patient population, pyuria, positive urine cytology, multiple tumors, pT1 tumors and no bacillus Calmette-Guérin were significantly associated with recurrence. Multivariate analysis showed that pyuria was an independent predictor of recurrence (hazard ratio 3.332, 95% confidence interval 2.052-5.410; P < 0.001), along with positive urine cytology, multiple tumors and no bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy. Subanalysis of the patients who underwent bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy also showed that pyuria was an independent predictor of recurrence (hazard ratio 2.062, 95% confidence interval 1.085-3.918, P = 0.027). The 2-year recurrence-free survival rate for patients with pyuria was significantly lower than for patients without pyuria (65.5% vs 80.7%; P = 0.027).

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative pyuria seems to be significantly associated with recurrence in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, and it might be a useful predictor for recurrence after bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy.

Previous Bladder Cancer History in Patients with High-Risk, Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer Correlates with Recurrence and Progression: Implications of Natural History

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to assess the correlation of previous bladder cancer history with the recurrence and progression of patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer treated with adjuvant Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) and to evaluate their natural history.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients were divided into two groups based on the existence of previous bladder cancer (primary, non-primary). A logistic regression analysis was used to identify the possible differences in the probabilities of recurrence and progression with respect to tumor history, while potential differences due to gender, tumor size (> 3 cm, < 3 cm), stage (pTa, T1), concomitant carcinoma in situ (pTis) and number of tumors (single, multiple) were also assessed. Univariate and multivariate models were employed. In addition, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to compare recurrence- and progression-free survival between the groups.

RESULTS

A total of 192 patients were included (144 with primary and 48 with non-primary tumors). The rates of recurrence and progression for patients with primary tumors were 27.8% and 12.5%, respectively. The corresponding percentages for patients with non-primary tumors were 77.1% and 33.3%, respectively. The latter group of patients displayed significantly higher probabilities of recurrence (p=0.000; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.067 to 18.804) and progression (p=0.002; 95% CI, 1.609 to 7.614) in a univariate logistic regression analysis. Previous bladder cancer history remained significant in the multivariate model accounting for history, age, gender, tumor size , number of tumors, stage and concomitant pTis (p=0.000; 95% CI, 4.367 to 21.924 and p=0.002; 95% CI, 1.611 to 8.182 for recurrence and progression respectively). Kaplan-Meier curves revealed that the non-primary group hadreduced progression- and recurrence-free survival.

CONCLUSION

Previous non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer history correlates significantly with recurrence and progression in patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive disease treated with adjuvant BCG.

The impact of age and clinical factors in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer treated with Bacillus Calmette Guerin therapy

BACKGROUND

Bladder cancer is a disease of older persons, the incidence of which is expected to increase as the population ages. Prognostic factors for local recurrence for patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer have not been fully established. The aim of our study was to determine the influence of age on the outcomes of non muscle invasive bladder (NMIBC) cancer treated with intravesical Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) therapy.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the clinical and pathologic data of primary NMIBC from 112 patients who were treated with transurethral resection followed by BCG-immunotherapy. Time follow-up was 30 months. Clinicopathologic characteristics and response to BCG therapy were correlated with age using univariate and multivariate methods of analysis.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis showed that age analyzed as a categorical variable was not associated with other clinicopathological characteristics. On the other hand, multivariate analysis showed that only multiplicity, stage and tumor size were independent significant prognosticators.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of our study have shown that aging has no impact on the outcomes of high-risk NMIBC treated by BCG immunotherapy.

Tumor multiplicity is an independent prognostic factor of non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer treated with Bacillus Calmette-Guerin immunotherapy

BACKGROUND

Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) immunotherapy is regarded as the current treatment of choice for non muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), though its efficacy is limited by high recurrence and progression rate. Identification of factor prognosticators that might be helpful in discriminating between responders and nonresponders to BCG treatment is therefore of major clinical importance. The aim of this study is to evaluate the prognostic factors of recurrence after intravesical adjuvant BCG immunotherapy in patients with NMIBC.

METHODS

we retrospectively reviewed the clinical and pathologic data of primary NMIBC from 112 patients who were treated with transurethral resection followed by BCG-immunotherapy. Time follow-up was 30 months. The prognostic significance of tumor stage, grade, multiplicity, age, sex and smoking in determining the risk for recurrence after BCG therapy was studied with both univariate and multivariate methods of analysis.

RESULTS

According to univariate analysis of the prognostic significance for tumor stage, grade, loci number, sex, age and smoking, the pT1 stage and multiplicity seem to be associated in a statistically significant manner with higher risk for recurrence (P = 0.009, P = 0.011, respectively). In the other hand, multivariate analysis showed that only multiplicity was an independent significant prognosticator.

CONCLUSION

Significant independent predictor for recurrence was multiplicity which offers important clinical information and may be a useful tool in the selection of suitable candidates for BCG-immunotherapy.

Predictive factors for recurrence progression and cancer specific survival in high-risk bladder cancer

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Despite standard treatment with transurethral resection (TUR) and adjuvant Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), a large percentage of high-risk bladder cancer (HRBC) recur, and some progress. On the basis of review of the current guidelines and literature, we have developed actualized clinical and molecular prognostic factors of recurrence, progression and cancer specific survival (CSS) in patients with HRBC.

RECENT FINDINGS

A Medline search was conducted to identify the current literature updating the most important clinic and pathological predictive factors published in the last years. Also, there have been reviewed the new molecular markers that can assess prognosis and BCG response.

SUMMARY

Despite different methodological bias, as short follow-up, a small number of patients and a different definition of prognostic factors, increased evidence supports sex, age, grade, stage, multifocality, history of previous recurrences, carcinoma in situ in the prostatic urethra and early recurrence as prognostic factors for recurrence, progression and CSS in nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer. Also lymphovascular invasion in TUR and new molecular markers (galectin-3, profilin-1, and combination of markers) are increasingly useful in predicting prognosis and BCG response. Moreover, there is enough evidence to consider the implementation of new specific risk tables for patients treated with BCG. In cases with poor prognostic factors after TUR in HRBC early cystectomy should be considered.

Amount of tobacco consumption is associated with superficial bladder cancer progression

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between smoking habits and outcome of patients with superficial bladder cancer.

METHODS

A retrospective study was performed evaluating 99 patients (67.0 ± 13.2 years, ranging from 31.4-93.4 years, 72.7% males and 27.3% females) treated at our institution with non muscle-invasive bladder cancer, between 1994 and 2000, with a mean follow-up of 49.3 months (range 4.0-177.9 months). Patients were divided according to smoking status, and the main measured outcome was progression to invasive disease. Additional cohort analysis was performed dividing patients according to previous tobacco exposure: smokers and non-smokers. Smokers were stratified into former smokers, early-quitters, late quitters and continued smokers.

RESULTS

Smoking habit was significantly more common in males (p = 0.03). Cancer also occurred at an earlier age among smokers (70.8 versus 64.8 years, p = 0.030). Tobacco consumption was present in 62.7% of the patients with bladder cancer. There was a significant higher progression rate to muscle-invasive disease in patients that had more than 60 pack-years of exposure (52.9 versus 26.2%, p = 0.037). These patients had a mean progression time of 59.3 months, whereas patients who had smoked less than 60 pack-years progressed after a mean time of 131.8 months.

CONCLUSIONS

A direct association between the amount of tobacco consumed and disease progression is observed in patients with bladder cancer, as suggested by the present study. Tobacco consumption has a direct association with progression of superficial bladder cancer to invasive disease and also shortens the period of time for muscle invasion. Larger and prospective studies are still necessary to bring further definitive conclusions about reproducibility of our data and to better understand how smoking cessation affects progression of superficial bladder cancer.

Nonprimary pT1 nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer treated with bacillus Calmette-Guerin is associated with higher risk of progression compared to primary T1 tumors

PURPOSE

Few studies have examined the prognostic significance of prior tumor resection(s) in cases of T1 nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer treated with intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guerin. We examined this issue by comparing the prognosis of primary vs nonprimary T1 nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer treated with bacillus Calmette-Guerin.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with pT1 nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer treated with bacillus Calmette-Guerin were identified and tumor pathology was reviewed. Patients were then stratified into primary vs nonprimary tumors, and outcomes were compared using univariate, multivariate and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses, and the Cox regression model adjusting for various clinical and pathological features including, age, gender, tumor size, multifocality, pathological grade and associated carcinoma in situ.

RESULTS

The study included 191 patients, 95 (49.7%) with primary and 96 (50.3%) with nonprimary tumors. The clinical and pathological characteristics were comparable. For the primary vs the nonprimary group progression rates were 24.2% vs 39.6%, respectively (HR 2.07, 95% CI 0.98-3.71, multivariate p = 0.03) and the 5-year progression-free survival rates were 71.9% vs 51.5%, respectively (log rank p <0.001). This difference remained significant on multivariate Cox regression analysis (HR 2.53, 95% CI 1.40-4.57, p = 0.002). There was no difference between the groups in recurrence or disease specific mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Nonprimary T1 nonmuscle invasive bladder tumors treated with bacillus Calmette-Guerin carry a significantly higher risk of progression to muscle invasive disease compared to primary tumors. This information may be used in combination with other prognostic factors to identify those at high risk for progression when counseling patients.

Impact of patient age on outcome following bladder-preserving treatment for non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer

OBJECTIVES

To determine the impact of patient age on outcome following bladder-preserving treatment for non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC).

METHODS

This study examined 491 patients treated with transurethral resection and/or intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) therapy for primary NMIBC at our institution between 1985 and 2005. The patients' age at treatment was classified into categories of younger than 50, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, and 80 years or older. Recurrence-free survival and progression-free survival were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and analyzed using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Tumors of broad-based, multiple, and higher grades were more frequent with increasing patient age. Intravesical BCG therapy was less frequently performed on elderly patients. At a median follow-up of 45 months, patients 80 years or older had the lowest recurrence-free survival and progression-free survival among the age groups (log-rank P < 0.001 and P = 0.019, respectively). On Cox proportional hazard model, age was an independent risk factor for tumor recurrence and progression after controlling for all confounding variables. The recurrence risk was 2.3 times higher for patients 80 years or older than those aged 60-69 years (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Older age adversely affected the outcome of patients with NMIBC, which is particularly apparent in patients 80 years or older. Further prospective studies to confirm these findings are warranted.

Failure to achieve a complete response to induction BCG therapy is associated with increased risk of disease worsening and death in patients with high risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer

PURPOSE

The Southwest Oncology Group conducted a randomized trial of induction bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) with or without maintenance BCG. In these additional retrospective analyses, our goal was to evaluate the association of a complete response (CR) or remaining with no evidence of disease (NED) vs. no CR during induction therapy with subsequent survival after adjusting for other potential confounders. Among all patients randomized to maintenance treatment, we also wanted to identify combinations of baseline covariates in order to define prognostic groups for subsequent worsening-free survival.

METHODS

Outcome measures of worsening-free and overall survival were assessed using Kaplan Meier estimates and proportional hazards regression models. For the classification and regression tree (CART) analysis, 434 patients randomized to maintenance vs. no therapy with complete covariate information were included.

RESULTS

Of the 593 evaluable patients, 341 were not randomized to maintenance BCG. Patients who achieved a prior complete response during induction BCG had a 5-year survival probability of 77% compared with 62% for patients who did not [hazard ratio (HR) 0.60; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.44, 0.81; P = 0.0008]. Prior CR retained significance when adjusted for age, gender, prior intravesical chemotherapy, and papillary disease versus CIS (HR = 0.63; 95% CI: 0.46, 0.86; P = 0.003). CART analysis identified 4 prognostic groups. Older patients (> or =62 years old) previously treated with intravesical chemotherapy who failed to achieve a CR had a 5-fold higher risk of a worsening event relative to those who are younger (<67 years old) and achieve a CR (HR = 5.09; 95% CI: 3.37, 7.68; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Failure to achieve a complete response after induction BCG is associated with a significant risk of a worsening event and death for patients with CIS or Ta or T1 bladder cancer at increased risk of recurrence.

Prognostic factors in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer treated with bacillus Calmette-Guérin: multivariate analysis of data from four randomized CUETO trials

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the prognostic factors of recurrence and progression after intravesical adjuvant bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunotherapy in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder tumors.

METHODS

From February 1990 to May 1999, the Spanish Club Urológico Español de Tratamiento Oncológico (CUETO) group has performed four randomized phase 3 studies comparing different intravesical treatments in patients with noninvasive bladder cancer. Data from 1062 evaluable patients treated only with BCG were analyzed. Most patients received BCG once weekly for 6 consecutive weeks and a short-term BCG maintenance (once every 2 wk 6 times more). Associated tumor in situ (TIS) was found in 7.5% (n=80) of cases. There were 22.1% (n=235) patients with T1G3 tumors, 22.9% of whom (n=54) were associated with TIS. Stepwise multivariate Cox regression models with stratification by study and dose were used to assess the independent effect of predictive factors and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from the Cox model.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis demonstrated that female gender (HR=1.71) compared to male gender, recurrent tumors (HR=1.9) compared to primary tumors, multiplicity, and presence of associated TIS (HR=1.54) increased the risk of recurrence. Recurrent tumors (HR=1.62) compared to primary tumors, high-grade tumors (HR=5.64) compared to G1 tumors, T1 tumors (HR=2.15) compared to Ta tumors, and recurrence at 3-mo cystoscopy (HR=4.6) increased the risk of progression.

CONCLUSION

Significant independent predictors for recurrence were female gender, history of recurrence, multiplicity, and presence of associated TIS. Age, history of recurrence, high grade, T1 stage, and recurrence at first cystoscopy were independent predictors of progression by multivariate Cox analysis.

The Impact of Age on the Response of Patients With Superficial Bladder Cancer to Intravesical Immunotherapy

PURPOSE

We determined the influence of age on response to intravesical immunotherapy in patients with superficial bladder cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from a national phase II multicenter trial for BCG plus IFN-alpha intravesical therapy for superficial bladder cancer were analyzed. Recurrence-free survival 2 years after the initiation of therapy was examined in patients by incremental age decade. BCG-N patients received 81 mg BCG and 50 MU IFN-alpha, while patients who had previously been treated with BCG received a third of the BCG dose with 50 MU IFN-alpha and those who were BCG intolerant received a tenth of the BCG dose with 100 MU IFN-alpha. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were obtained.

RESULTS

In all patients the largest difference in response was between the 289 who were 61 to 70 years old and the 123 who were older than 80 years with a 22% difference in cancer-free survival at a median followup of 24 months (61% vs 39%, p = 0.0002). When we assessed BCG-N and BCG treated patients separately in the 2 age groups, patients older than 80 years had a persistently lower response rate than younger patients 61 to 70 years old. Of BCG-N patients those older than 80 and younger than 50 years had the lowest cancer-free survival at a median followup of 24 months (47% and 45%, respectively). On multivariate analysis age was an independent risk factor for response.

CONCLUSIONS

Aging appears to be associated with a decreased response to intravesical immunotherapy and is particularly apparent in patients older than 80 years. A potential explanation could be their depressed baseline immune status and consequent inability to mount an immune reaction to BCG or IFN-alpha.

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy in stage Ta/T1 bladder cancer: prognostic factors for time to recurrence and progression

OBJECTIVE

To report prognostic factors for time to recurrence and progression after bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) prophylaxis in patients with stage Ta/T1 papillary bladder cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The clinical records were assessed retrospectively for 236 patients with papillary stage Ta/T1 bladder cancer treated with BCG between 1986 and 2000. Patients with known carcinoma in situ were excluded. The median (range) follow-up was 44 (4-155) months. The effect of 13 variables on the time to recurrence and progression was evaluated using multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses.

RESULTS

The recurrence rate was markedly reduced for all grades and stages. Patients with a negative first cystoscopy and maintenance BCG had a significantly longer time to recurrence than those treated with an induction course alone (P < 0.001). Thirty-seven patients (16%) progressed in stage. The result of the first cystoscopy (P < 0.001), tumour grade (P = 0.003) and six or fewer initial instillations (P = 0.002) had prognostic importance for the time to progression. Twenty-eight patients (12%) had a history of an upper tract tumour, which was 3-10 times the expected rate. Age, number of tumours, number of positive cystoscopies, length of tumour history before BCG, BCG strain and treatment year had no influence on time to recurrence and progression.

CONCLUSIONS

Maintenance treatment does not seem to be necessary among patients with TaG1-G2 disease after a negative first cystoscopy, as the progression rate was very low. One new finding was that BCG seemed to be equally effective among patients with or with no history of an upper tract tumour. Another new and surprising finding was that patients treated with fewer than six induction instillations, because of very bothersome side-effects, had an increased risk of tumour progression and of local failure.

Evaluation of multiple recurrence events in superficial bladder cancer patients treated with intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy using the Andersen-Gill's model

To evaluate factors affecting recurrence after intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) therapy (Tokyo 172 strain), we reviewed data for 101 patients with superficial bladder cancer (pTa [n = 80] and pT1 [n = 21]) treated between 1985 and 1999. The median follow-up period was 58.9 months. Factors affecting the first tumour recurrence were evaluated using Cox's proportional hazards model and those affecting multiple recurrence with Andersen-Gill's model. The 5-year recurrence-free rate was 63% for all 101 patients. The recurrence frequency, defined as times per 100 patient-months of follow-up, greatly decreased from 7.3 +/- 9.6 (SD) before the instillation to 2.6 +/- 5.6 after the therapy (p < 0.0001). Patients with pT1 tumours tended to have earlier recurrence than those with pTa tumours (p = 0.06). Multivariate analysis using Cox's proportional hazards model revealed that a history of bladder cancer and pathological stage were independent factors affecting the first tumour recurrence after the BCG therapy. When multiple endpoints of recurrence were evaluated using the Andersen-Gill's model, number of tumours as well as a history of bladder cancer and pathological stage demonstrated significant links to tumour recurrence after the BCG therapy. The 5-year progression-free and 5-year survival rates were 89.3% and 85.3% for all the 101 patients, respectively. Because intravesical recurrence may involve multiple events during the clinical course of patients with bladder cancer, the Andersen-Gill's model appears useful for evaluation of risk factors.

[The role of tumor markers in prognosing transitional bladder cancer]

PURPOSE

Review the literature on tumor markers used for prognosis of transitional bladder cancer. The existing problems regarding grading and local staging of these tumors are also discussed.

METHODS

The published literature on transitional bladder cancer markers was identified using a Medline search and critically analysed.

RESULTS

There are significant interobserver differences in grading. There is a new grading system. There are also problems in local staging and low correlation between clinic stage and pathologic stage. Major tumor markers studied for prognosis of transitional bladder cancer are: flow cytometry, kariocytometric study, oncogenes (p53, bcl-2, Her2/Neu or c-erbB2), chromosomic alterations (chromosomes 9, 7 and 17), proliferation markers (Ki-67, MIB-1), cyclin-dependent kinases and its inhibitors (cyclin D1, cyclin E, p21Wafl, p27Kipl), vascular endothelial growth factor, other growth factors (fibroblastic, epidermal, hepatocyte, platelet-derived), metalloproteinases, cell adhesion molecules, and others.

CONCLUSIONS

At present, there are no prognostic markers for bladder cancer that are superior to conventional grading and staging, despite its imperfections. Standarization of assay methods in bladder tumor markers is needed to permit more conclusive and reproducible results and become a clinic tool. Controversy resulting from several studies make the meaning of some putative prognostic markers in transitional bladder cancer questionable.