Resolution and uncertainties in estimates of earthquake stress drop and energy release

Our models and understanding of the dynamics of earthquake rupture are based largely on estimates of earthquake source parameters, such as stress drop and radiated seismic energy. Unfortunately, the measurements, especially those of small and moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude less than about 5 or 6), are not well resolved, containing significant random and potentially systematic uncertainties. The aim of this review is to provide a context in which to understand the challenges involved in estimating these measurements, and to assess the quality and reliability of reported measurements of earthquake source parameters. I also discuss some of the ways progress is being made towards more reliable parameter measurements. At present, whether the earthquake source is entirely self-similar, or not, and which factors and processes control the physics of the rupture remains, at least in the author's opinion, largely unconstrained. Detailed analysis of the best recorded earthquakes, using the increasing quantity and quality of data available, and methods less dependent on simplistic source models is one approach that may help provide better constraints. This article is part of the theme issue 'Fracture dynamics of solid materials: from particles to the globe'.

The earthquake cycle in the dry lower continental crust: insights from two deeply exhumed terranes (Musgrave Ranges, Australia and Lofoten, Norway)

This paper discusses the results of field-based geological investigations of exhumed rocks exposed in the Musgrave Ranges (Central Australia) and in Nusfjord (Lofoten, Norway) that preserve evidence for lower continental crustal earthquakes with focal depths of approximately 25-40 km. These studies have established that deformation of the dry lower continental crust is characterized by a cyclic interplay between viscous creep (mylonitization) and brittle, seismic slip associated with the formation of pseudotachylytes (a solidified melt produced during seismic slip along a fault in silicate rocks). Seismic slip triggers rheological weakening and a transition to viscous creep, which may be already active during the immediate post-seismic deformation along faults initially characterized by frictional melting and wall-rock damage. The cyclical interplay between seismic slip and viscous creep implies transient oscillations in stress and strain rate, which are preserved in the shear zone microstructure. In both localities, the spatial distribution of pseudotachylytes is consistent with a local (deep) source for the transient high stresses required to generate earthquakes in the lower crust. This deep source is the result of localized stress amplification in dry and strong materials generated at the contacts with ductile shear zones, producing multiple generations of pseudotachylyte over geological time. This implies that both the short- and the long-term rheological evolution of the dry lower crust typical of continental interiors is controlled by earthquake cycle deformation. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Understanding earthquakes using the geological record'.

Earthquake nucleation in the lower crust by local stress amplification

Deep intracontinental earthquakes are poorly understood, despite their potential to cause significant destruction. Although lower crustal strength is currently a topic of debate, dry lower continental crust may be strong under high-grade conditions. Such strength could enable earthquake slip at high differential stress within a predominantly viscous regime, but requires further documentation in nature. Here, we analyse geological observations of seismic structures in exhumed lower crustal rocks. A granulite facies shear zone network dissects an anorthosite intrusion in Lofoten, northern Norway, and separates relatively undeformed, microcracked blocks of anorthosite. In these blocks, pristine pseudotachylytes decorate fault sets that link adjacent or intersecting shear zones. These fossil seismogenic faults are rarely >15 m in length, yet record single-event displacements of tens of centimetres, a slip/length ratio that implies >1 GPa stress drops. These pseudotachylytes represent direct identification of earthquake nucleation as a transient consequence of ongoing, localised aseismic creep.

This study investigates deep intracontinental earthquakes. Based on field data from exhumed lower crustal pseudotachylytes and mylonites from Lofoten, northern Norway, the authors describe a novel model of earthquake nucleation in the lower crust as a transient consequence of ongoing localised aseismic creep.

Arc-arc collision caused the 2018 Eastern Iburi earthquake (M 6.7) in Hokkaido, Japan

Inland crustal earthquakes usually occur in the brittle upper crust (0-20 km depths), but the 6 September 2018 Eastern Iburi earthquake (M 6.7) took place in southern Hokkaido with a focal depth of ~37 km, causing 41 fatalities and serious damage to the local infrastructure. The reason why this event was so deep and its causal mechanism are still unclear. In this work we study the three-dimensional P and S wave seismic attenuation (1/Q) structure in the source zone of the 2018 Iburi earthquake. Our results show that this event occurred at the boundary between the Sorachi-Yezo belt (low Q) and the dipping Northeastern (NE) Japan arc (high Q) that is descending beneath the Kuril arc. The collision between the NE Japan and Kuril arcs as well as fluids from dehydration of the subducting Pacific plate caused this big event and its unusual focal depth. Similar attenuation structures are revealed in source zones of the 1970 Hidaka earthquake (M 6.7) and the 1982 Urakawa-oki earthquake (M 7.1), suggesting that they were caused by similar processes. We think that large earthquakes will take place again on the active thrust faults in southern Hokkaido in the coming decades. Hence, we should pay much attention to the seismic risk and prepare for reduction of earthquake hazards there.

Stress drops of induced and tectonic earthquakes in the central United States are indistinguishable

Induced earthquakes currently pose a significant hazard in the central United States, but there is considerable uncertainty about the severity of their ground motions. We measure stress drops of 39 moderate-magnitude induced and tectonic earthquakes in the central United States and eastern North America. Induced earthquakes, more than half of which are shallower than 5 km, show a comparable median stress drop to tectonic earthquakes in the central United States that are dominantly strike-slip but a lower median stress drop than that of tectonic earthquakes in the eastern North America that are dominantly reverse-faulting. This suggests that ground motion prediction equations developed for tectonic earthquakes can be applied to induced earthquakes if the effects of depth and faulting style are properly considered. Our observation leads to the notion that, similar to tectonic earthquakes, induced earthquakes are driven by tectonic stresses.