Quantifying greenhouse-gas emissions from atmospheric measurements: a critical reality check for climate legislation

Emissions reduction legislation relies upon 'bottom-up' accounting of industrial and biogenic greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions at their sources. Yet, even for relatively well-constrained industrial GHGs, global emissions based on 'top-down' methods that use atmospheric measurements often agree poorly with the reported bottom-up emissions. For emissions reduction legislation to be effective, it is essential that these discrepancies be resolved. Because emissions are regulated nationally or regionally, not globally, top-down estimates must also be determined at these scales. High-frequency atmospheric GHG measurements at well-chosen station locations record 'pollution events' above the background values that result from regional emissions. By combining such measurements with inverse methods and atmospheric transport and chemistry models, it is possible to map and quantify regional emissions. Even with the sparse current network of measurement stations and current inverse-modelling techniques, it is possible to rival the accuracies of regional 'bottom-up' emission estimates for some GHGs. But meeting the verification goals of emissions reduction legislation will require major increases in the density and types of atmospheric observations, as well as expanded inverse-modelling capabilities. The cost of this effort would be minor when compared with current investments in carbon-equivalent trading, and would reduce the volatility of that market and increase investment in emissions reduction.

Atmospheric oxidation capacity sustained by a tropical forest

Terrestrial vegetation, especially tropical rain forest, releases vast quantities of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to the atmosphere, which are removed by oxidation reactions and deposition of reaction products. The oxidation is mainly initiated by hydroxyl radicals (OH), primarily formed through the photodissociation of ozone. Previously it was thought that, in unpolluted air, biogenic VOCs deplete OH and reduce the atmospheric oxidation capacity. Conversely, in polluted air VOC oxidation leads to noxious oxidant build-up by the catalytic action of nitrogen oxides (NO(x) = NO + NO2). Here we report aircraft measurements of atmospheric trace gases performed over the pristine Amazon forest. Our data reveal unexpectedly high OH concentrations. We propose that natural VOC oxidation, notably of isoprene, recycles OH efficiently in low-NO(x) air through reactions of organic peroxy radicals. Computations with an atmospheric chemistry model and the results of laboratory experiments suggest that an OH recycling efficiency of 40-80 per cent in isoprene oxidation may be able to explain the high OH levels we observed in the field. Although further laboratory studies are necessary to explore the chemical mechanism responsible for OH recycling in more detail, our results demonstrate that the biosphere maintains a remarkable balance with the atmospheric environment.

Long-memory processes in ozone and temperature variations at the region 60° S–60° N

Abstract. Global column ozone and tropospheric temperature observations made by ground-based (1964–2004) and satellite-borne (1978–2004) instrumentation are analyzed. Ozone and temperature fluctuations in small time-intervals are found to be positively correlated to those in larger time-intervals in a power-law fashion. For temperature, the exponent of this dependence is larger in the mid-latitudes than in the tropics at long time scales, while for ozone, the exponent is larger in tropics than in the mid-latitudes. In general, greater persistence could be a result of either stronger positive feedbacks or larger inertia. Therefore, the increased slope of the power distribution of temperature in mid-latitudes at long time scales compared to the slope in the tropics could be connected to the poleward increase in climate sensitivity predicted by the global climate models. The detrended fluctuation analysis of model and observed time series provides a helpful tool for visualizing errors in the treatment of long-range correlations, whose correct modeling would greatly enhance confidence in long-term climate and atmospheric chemistry modeling.

Global air pollution crossroads over the Mediterranean

The Mediterranean Intensive Oxidant Study, performed in the summer of 2001, uncovered air pollution layers from the surface to an altitude of 15 kilometers. In the boundary layer, air pollution standards are exceeded throughout the region, caused by West and East European pollution from the north. Aerosol particles also reduce solar radiation penetration to the surface, which can suppress precipitation. In the middle troposphere, Asian and to a lesser extent North American pollution is transported from the west. Additional Asian pollution from the east, transported from the monsoon in the upper troposphere, crosses the Mediterranean tropopause, which pollutes the lower stratosphere at middle latitudes.

Evidence for substantial variations of atmospheric hydroxyl radicals in the past two decades

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the dominant oxidizing chemical in the atmosphere. It destroys most air pollutants and many gases involved in ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. Global measurements of 1,1,1-trichloroethane (CH3CCl3, methyl chloroform) provide an accurate method for determining the global and hemispheric behavior of OH. Measurements show that CH3CCl3 levels rose steadily from 1978 to reach a maximum in 1992 and then decreased rapidly to levels in 2000 that were lower than the levels when measurements began in 1978. Analysis of these observations shows that global OH levels were growing between 1978 and 1988, but the growth rate was decreasing at a rate of 0.23 +/- 0.18% year(-2), so that OH levels began declining after 1988. Overall, the global average OH trend between 1978 and 2000 was -0.64 +/- 0.60% year(-1). These variations imply important and unexpected gaps in current understanding of the capability of the atmosphere to cleanse itself.