Extreme Energy Spectra of Relativistic Electron Flux in the Outer Radiation Belt

Electron diffusion by whistler-mode chorus waves is one of the key processes controlling the dynamics of relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth's radiation belts. It is responsible for the acceleration of sub-relativistic electrons injected from the plasma sheet to relativistic energies as well as for their precipitation and loss into the atmosphere. Based on analytical estimates of chorus wave-driven quasi-linear electron energy and pitch-angle diffusion rates, we provide analytical steady-state solutions to the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation for the relativistic electron distribution and flux. The impact on these steady-state solutions of additional electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves, and of ultralow frequency waves are examined. Such steady-state solutions correspond to hard energy spectra at 1-4 MeV, dangerous for satellite electronics, and represent attractors for the system dynamics in the presence of sufficiently strong driving by continuous injections of 10-300 keV electrons. Therefore, these analytical steady-state solutions provide a simple means for estimating the most extreme electron energy spectra potentially encountered in the outer radiation belt, despite the great variability of injections and plasma conditions. These analytical steady-state solutions are compared with numerical simulations based on the full Fokker-Planck equation and with relativistic electron flux spectra measured by satellites during one extreme event and three strong events of high time-integrated geomagnetic activity, demonstrating a good agreement.

Realistic Worst Case for a Severe Space Weather Event Driven by a Fast Solar Wind Stream

Satellite charging is one of the most important risks for satellites on orbit. Satellite charging can lead to an electrostatic discharge resulting in component damage, phantom commands, and loss of service and in exceptional cases total satellite loss. Here we construct a realistic worst case for a fast solar wind stream event lasting 5 days or more and use a physical model to calculate the maximum electron flux greater than 2 MeV for geostationary orbit. We find that the flux tends toward a value of 106 cm-2·s-1·sr-1 after 5 days and remains high for another 5 days. The resulting flux is comparable to a 1 in 150-year event found from an independent statistical analysis of electron data. Approximately 2.5 mm of Al shielding would be required to reduce the internal charging current to below the National Aeronautics and Space Administration-recommended guidelines, much more than is currently used. Thus, we would expect many satellites to report electrostatic discharge anomalies during such an event with a strong likelihood of service outage and total satellite loss. We conclude that satellites at geostationary orbit are more likely to be at risk from fast solar wind stream event than a Carrington-type storm.