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Wu X, Yeager SG, Deser C, Rosenbloom N, Meehl GA. Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the tropical Pacific. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eadd9364. [PMID: 37043583 PMCID: PMC10096591 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.add9364] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2022] [Accepted: 03/15/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
Volcanic aerosol forcing can affect global climate, but its role in climate prediction remains poorly understood. We isolate the impact of volcanic eruptions on multiyear-to-decadal climate prediction skill by comparing two suites of initialized decadal hindcasts conducted with and without historical volcanic forcing. Unexpectedly, the inclusion of volcanic forcing in the prediction system significantly degrades the forecast skill of detrended multiyear-to-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central-eastern tropical Pacific. The ensemble mean hindcasts produce multiyear-to-decadal tropical Pacific SST cooling in response to large tropical volcanic eruptions through thermodynamic and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like dynamic processes. However, in observations, these eruptions coincided with tropical Pacific warming, which is well predicted by the no-volcano hindcasts and, hence, is likely related to internal climate variability. Improved model representation of volcanic response and its interaction with internal climate variability is required to advance prediction of tropical Pacific decadal variability and associated global impacts.
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Mokhov II, Smirnov DA. Contributions to surface air temperature trends estimated from climate time series: Medium-term causalities. CHAOS (WOODBURY, N.Y.) 2022; 32:063128. [PMID: 35778149 DOI: 10.1063/5.0088042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2022] [Accepted: 06/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Contributions of various natural and anthropogenic factors to trends of surface air temperatures at different latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres on various temporal horizons are estimated from climate data since the 19th century in empirical autoregressive models. Along with anthropogenic forcing, we assess the impact of several natural climate modes including Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, El-Nino/Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Antarctic Oscillation. On relatively short intervals of the length of two or three decades, contributions of climate variability modes are considerable and comparable to the contributions of greenhouse gases and even exceed the latter. On longer intervals of about half a century and greater, the contributions of greenhouse gases dominate at all latitudinal belts including polar, middle, and tropical ones.
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Affiliation(s)
- Igor I Mokhov
- A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 3 Pyzhevsky Per., 119017 Moscow, Russia
| | - Dmitry A Smirnov
- A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 3 Pyzhevsky Per., 119017 Moscow, Russia
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3
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Stocker M, Ladstädter F, Wilhelmsen H, Steiner AK. Quantifying Stratospheric Temperature Signals and Climate Imprints From Post-2000 Volcanic Eruptions. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2019; 46:12486-12494. [PMID: 31857737 PMCID: PMC6916164 DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084396] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2019] [Revised: 08/14/2019] [Accepted: 09/20/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Small volcanic eruptions and their effects have recently come into research focus. While large eruptions are known to strongly affect stratospheric temperature, the impacts of smaller eruptions are hard to quantify because their signals are masked by natural variability. Here, we quantify the temperature signals from small volcanic eruptions between 2002 and 2016 using new vertically resolved aerosol data and precise temperature observations from radio occultation. We find characteristic space-time signals that can be associated with specific eruptions. In the lower stratosphere, robust warming signals are observed, while in the midstratosphere also cooling signals of some eruptions appear. We find that the volcanic contribution to the temperature trend is up to 20%, depending on latitude and altitude. We conclude that detailed knowledge of the vertical structure of volcanic temperature impacts is crucial for comprehensive trend analysis in order to separate natural from anthropogenic temperature changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthias Stocker
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC)University of GrazGrazAustria
| | - Florian Ladstädter
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC)University of GrazGrazAustria
- Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology/Institute of PhysicsUniversity of GrazGrazAustria
| | - Hallgeir Wilhelmsen
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC)University of GrazGrazAustria
- FWF‐DK Climate ChangeUniversity of GrazGrazAustria
| | - Andrea K. Steiner
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC)University of GrazGrazAustria
- Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology/Institute of PhysicsUniversity of GrazGrazAustria
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Liu X, Wu W, Wielicki BA, Yang Q, Kizer SH, Huang X, Chen X, Kato S, Shea YL, Mlynczak MG. Spectrally Dependent CLARREO Infrared Spectrometer Calibration Requirement for Climate Change Detection. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 2017; 30:3979-3998. [PMID: 32742077 PMCID: PMC7394084 DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-16-0704.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Detecting climate trends of atmospheric temperature, moisture, cloud, and surface temperature requires accurately calibrated satellite instruments such as the Climate Absolute Radiance and Reflectivity Observatory (CLARREO). Wielicki et al. have studied the CLARREO measurement requirements for achieving climate change accuracy goals in orbit. Our study further quantifies the spectrally dependent IR instrument calibration requirement for detecting trends of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles. The temperature, water vapor, and surface skin temperature variability and the associated correlation time are derived using Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data. The results are further validated using climate model simulation results. With the derived natural variability as the reference, the calibration requirement is established by carrying out a simulation study for CLARREO observations of various atmospheric states under all-sky. We derive a 0.04 K (k=2, or 95% confidence) radiometric calibration requirement baseline using a spectral fingerprinting method. We also demonstrate that the requirement is spectrally dependent and some spectral regions can be relaxed due to the hyperspectral nature of the CLARREO instrument. We further discuss relaxing the requirement to 0.06 K (k=2) based on the uncertainties associated with the temperature and water vapor natural variability and relatively small delay in time-to-detect for trends relative to the baseline case. The methodology used in this study can be extended to other parameters (such as clouds and CO2) and other instrument configurations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xu Liu
- NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia
| | - Wan Wu
- Science Systems and Applications Inc, Hampton, Virginia
| | | | - Qiguang Yang
- Science Systems and Applications Inc, Hampton, Virginia
| | - Susan H Kizer
- Science Systems and Applications Inc, Hampton, Virginia
| | - Xianglei Huang
- Department of Climate and Space Science and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann, Arbor, Michigan
| | - Xiuhong Chen
- Department of Climate and Space Science and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann, Arbor, Michigan
| | - Seiji Kato
- NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia
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Stenchikov G, Delworth TL, Ramaswamy V, Stouffer RJ, Wittenberg A, Zeng F. Volcanic signals in oceans. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd011673] [Citation(s) in RCA: 166] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Lockwood M, Fröhlich C. Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale. Proc Math Phys Eng Sci 2008. [DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2007.0347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth's climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mike Lockwood
- Space Environment Physics Group, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of SouthamptonSouthampton SO17 1BJ, Hampshire, UK
- Rutherford Appleton LaboratoryChilton OX11 0QX, Oxfordshire, UK
| | - Claus Fröhlich
- Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos, World Radiation Center7260 Davos Dorf, Switzerland
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Lockwood M. Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise. Proc Math Phys Eng Sci 2008. [DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2007.0348] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
A multivariate fit to the variation in global mean surface air temperature anomaly over the past half century is presented. The fit procedure allows for the effect of response time on the waveform, amplitude and lag of each radiative forcing input, and each is allowed to have its own time constant. It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is −1.3% and the 2
σ
confidence level sets the uncertainty range of −0.7 to −1.9%. The result is the same if one quantifies the solar variation using galactic cosmic ray fluxes (for which the analysis can be extended back to 1953) or the most accurate total solar irradiance data composite. The rise in the global mean air surface temperatures is predominantly associated with a linear increase that represents the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, although, in recent decades, there is also a considerable contribution by a relative lack of major volcanic eruptions. The best estimate is that the anthropogenic factors contribute 75% of the rise since 1987, with an uncertainty range (set by the 2
σ
confidence level using an AR(1) noise model) of 49–160%; thus, the uncertainty is large, but we can state that at least half of the temperature trend comes from the linear term and that this term could explain the entire rise. The results are consistent with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) estimates of the changes in radiative forcing (given for 1961–1995) and are here combined with those estimates to find the response times, equilibrium climate sensitivities and pertinent heat capacities (i.e. the depth into the oceans to which a given radiative forcing variation penetrates) of the quasi-periodic (decadal-scale) input forcing variations. As shown by previous studies, the decadal-scale variations do not penetrate as deeply into the oceans as the longer term drifts and have shorter response times. Hence, conclusions about the response to century-scale forcing changes (and hence the associated equilibrium climate sensitivity and the temperature rise commitment) cannot be made from studies of the response to shorter period forcing changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mike Lockwood
- Space Environment Physics Group, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of SouthamptonSouthampton SO17 1BJ, Hampshire, UK
- Rutherford Appleton LaboratoryChilton OX11 0QX, Oxfordshire, UK
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Schwartz SE. Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth's climate system. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd008746] [Citation(s) in RCA: 94] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Santer BD, Mears C, Wentz FJ, Taylor KE, Gleckler PJ, Wigley TML, Barnett TP, Boyle JS, Brüggemann W, Gillett NP, Klein SA, Meehl GA, Nozawa T, Pierce DW, Stott PA, Washington WM, Wehner MF. Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2007; 104:15248-53. [PMID: 17881573 PMCID: PMC1986574 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0702872104] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2007] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/m(2) per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone. In a formal detection and attribution analysis using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated "fingerprint" pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor is identifiable with high statistical confidence in the SSM/I data. Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually suggest that this fingerprint "match" is primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earth's atmosphere.
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Affiliation(s)
- B D Santer
- Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA.
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Broccoli AJ, Dixon KW, Delworth TL, Knutson TR, Stouffer RJ, Zeng F. Twentieth-century temperature and precipitation trends in ensemble climate simulations including natural and anthropogenic forcing. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/2003jd003812] [Citation(s) in RCA: 88] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Anthony J. Broccoli
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Princeton University; Princeton New Jersey USA
| | - Keith W. Dixon
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Princeton University; Princeton New Jersey USA
| | - Thomas L. Delworth
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Princeton University; Princeton New Jersey USA
| | - Thomas R. Knutson
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Princeton University; Princeton New Jersey USA
| | - Ronald J. Stouffer
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Princeton University; Princeton New Jersey USA
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14
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Santer BD, Wigley TML, Meehl GA, Wehner MF, Mears C, Schabel M, Wentz FJ, Ammann C, Arblaster J, Bettge T, Washington WM, Taylor KE, Boyle JS, Brüggemann W, Doutriaux C. Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally forced climate change. Science 2003; 300:1280-4. [PMID: 12730497 DOI: 10.1126/science.1082393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
Two independent analyses of the same satellite-based radiative emissions data yield tropospheric temperature trends that differ by 0.1 degrees C per decade over 1979 to 2001. The troposphere warms appreciably in one satellite data set, while the other data set shows little overall change. These satellite data uncertainties are important in studies seeking to identify human effects on climate. A model-predicted "fingerprint" of combined anthropogenic and natural effects is statistically detectable only in the satellite data set with a warming troposphere. Our findings show that claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties.
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Affiliation(s)
- B D Santer
- Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA.
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15
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Surface climate responses to explosive volcanic eruptions seen in long European temperature records and mid-to-high latitude tree-ring density around the Northern Hemisphere. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/139gm15] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/12/2023]
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16
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Santer BD. Behavior of tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses, and observations: Decadal changes. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/2002jd002258] [Citation(s) in RCA: 153] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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17
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Free M, Angell JK. Effect of volcanoes on the vertical temperature profile in radiosonde data. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2002. [DOI: 10.1029/2001jd001128] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Melissa Free
- Air Resources Laboratory; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Silver Spring Maryland USA
| | - James K. Angell
- Air Resources Laboratory; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Silver Spring Maryland USA
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Soden BJ, Wetherald RT, Stenchikov GL, Robock A. Global cooling after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo: a test of climate feedback by water vapor. Science 2002; 296:727-30. [PMID: 11976452 DOI: 10.1126/science.296.5568.727] [Citation(s) in RCA: 353] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
The sensitivity of Earth's climate to an external radiative forcing depends critically on the response of water vapor. We use the global cooling and drying of the atmosphere that was observed after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo to test model predictions of the climate feedback from water vapor. Here, we first highlight the success of the model in reproducing the observed drying after the volcanic eruption. Then, by comparing model simulations with and without water vapor feedback, we demonstrate the importance of the atmospheric drying in amplifying the temperature change and show that, without the strong positive feedback from water vapor, the model is unable to reproduce the observed cooling. These results provide quantitative evidence of the reliability of water vapor feedback in current climate models, which is crucial to their use for global warming projections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian J Soden
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA.
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19
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Hansen J. Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2002. [DOI: 10.1029/2001jd001143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 273] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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