Trend analysis in the presence of short- and long-range correlations with application to regional warming

Many real-world time series exhibit both significant short- and long-range temporal correlations. Such correlations enhance the errors of linear trend analysis. In this paper, we provide a general framework for trend analysis under the consideration of such correlations. We propose a parsimonious model containing both a single short-range autoregressive parameter and long-range fractional parameter. We derive analytical closed-form results for the error bars of the least-squares estimate of the trend for such time series, highlighting the different effects of short- and of long-range correlations. We employ an ensemble method for the automated extraction of scaling regions to estimate the fractional parameter of the data model together with its error bar, and the Grünwald-Letnikov derivative for the identification of the autoregressive parameter. We apply this framework to the study of warming trends on gridded temperature data in central Europe. We make use of the redundancy of the trend signal in adjacent grid points using methods of spatial averaging and the first principal component of empirical orthogonal function analysis. We find good agreement between the results of these two methods. We find a statistically significant decadal warming trend in central Europe over the past 70 years, which shows a particularly dramatic increase over the past 20 years.

Impact of the COVID‐19 Economic Downturn on Tropospheric Ozone Trends: An Uncertainty Weighted Data Synthesis for Quantifying Regional Anomalies Above Western North America and Europe

This study quantifies the association between the COVID‐19 economic downturn and 2020 tropospheric ozone anomalies above Europe and western North America, and their impact on long‐term trends. Anomaly detection for an atmospheric time series is usually carried out by identifying potentially aberrant data points relative to climatological values. However, detecting ozone anomalies from sparsely sampled ozonesonde profiles (once per week at most sites) is challenging due to ozone's high temporal variability. We first demonstrate the challenges for summarizing regional trends based on independent time series from multiple nearby ozone profiling stations. We then propose a novel regional‐scale anomaly detection framework based on generalized additive mixed models, which accounts for the sampling frequency and inherent data uncertainty associated with each vertical profile data set, measured by ozonesondes, lidar or commercial aircraft. This method produces a long‐term monthly time series with high vertical resolution that reports ozone anomalies from the surface to the middle‐stratosphere under a unified framework, which can be used to quantify the regional‐scale ozone anomalies during the COVID‐19 economic downturn. By incorporating extensive commercial aircraft data and frequently sampled ozonesonde profiles above Europe, we show that the complex interannual variability of ozone can be adequately captured by our modeling approach. The results show that free tropospheric ozone negative anomalies in 2020 are the most profound since the benchmark year of 1994 for both Europe and western North America, and positive trends over 1994–2019 are diminished in both regions by the 2020 anomalies.

2020 is the only year that both Europe and western North America show strong negative tropospheric ozone anomalies since 1994

Positive free tropospheric ozone trends above Europe and western North America since 1994 are diminished by the 2020 anomalies

Data integration of multiple time series provides a better understanding of ozone variability compared to individual records

Apportionment of long-term trends in different sections of total ozone column over tropical region

The additive time-series decomposition analysis was performed on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument Merge satellite dataset version 8.6 for the period January 1979 to December 2019 with an objective to detect and apportion long-term trends present in the total ozone column (TOC) and the long-term trends exist in the respective ozone contents present in the vertical sub-columns constituting the TOC viz. upper, middle and lower stratosphere as well as near-surface for the tropical region. Linear regression analysis was performed on the deseasonalized monthly mean time series of TOC and corresponding ozone contents present in each partitioned layer for three different time spans, viz. 1979-2019 (complete time series), 1979-1998 (pre-inflection years), and 1999-2019 (post-inflection years), where 1998 was taken as inflection year. For the complete time-series, statistically significant negative trends were observed in TOC and corresponding ozone contents in the sub-columns over most of the tropical region. Expectedly, during pre-inflection years, strong negative trends were noted for TOC and ozone contents in the partitioned vertical layers. In contrast, during the post-inflection year time span, long-term trends in TOC were statistically insignificant over two-third of the tropical region, but one-third of the subtropical region exhibited negative trends in TOC. During this time span, positive trends were observed in the ozone contents present in the upper stratospheric sub-column. However, negative trends in ozone contents persisted in the middle and the lower stratosphere. It was interesting to note that the ozone contents confined in near-surface layer manifested strong negative trends during pre-inflection years and the same reversed into strong positive trends that in post-inflection span. The observed, contrasting, long-term trends and variability in the respective partitioned layer of the TOC confounded any clear sign of recovery in the TOC over the tropical region. The continuation of declining trends in the middle stratosphere and increasing trends in the near-surface layer of ozone contents is a matter of concern.

On Recent Large Antarctic Ozone Holes and Ozone Recovery Metrics

The 2015 and 2020 ozone holes set record sizes in October-December. We show that these years, as well as other recent large ozone holes, still adhere to a fundamental recovery metric: the later onset of early spring ozone depletion as chlorine and bromine diminishes. This behavior is also captured in the Whole Atmosphere Chemistry Climate Model. We quantify observed recovery trends of the onset of the ozone hole and in the size of the September ozone hole, with good model agreement. A substantial reduction in ozone hole depth during September over the past decade is also seen. Our results indicate that, due to dynamical phenomena, it is likely that large ozone holes will continue to occur intermittently in October-December, but ozone recovery will still be detectable through the later onset, smaller, and less deep September ozone holes: metrics that are governed more by chemical processes.

Vicarious Methodologies to Assess and Improve the Quality of the Optical Remote Sensing Images: A Critical Review

Over the past decade, number of optical Earth-observing satellites performing remote sensing has increased substantially, dramatically increasing the capability to monitor the Earth. The quantity of remote sensing satellite increase is primarily driven by improved technology, miniaturization of components, reduced manufacturing, and launch cost. These satellites often lack on-board calibrators that a large satellite utilizes to ensure high quality (radiometric, geometric, spatial quality, etc.) scientific measurement. To address this issue, this work presents “best” vicarious image quality assessment and improvement techniques for those kinds of optical satellites which lack an on-board calibration system. In this article, image quality categories have been explored, and essential quality parameters (absolute and relative calibration, aliasing, etc.) have been identified. For each of the parameters, appropriate characterization methods are identified along with their specifications or requirements. In cases of multiple methods, recommendations have been made based-on the strengths and weaknesses of each method. Furthermore, processing steps have been presented, including examples. Essentially, this paper provides a comprehensive study of the criteria that need to be assessed to evaluate remote sensing satellite data quality, and the best vicarious methodologies to evaluate identified quality parameters such as coherent noise and ground sample distance.

Effects of warming and elevated O3 concentrations on N2O emission and soil nitrification and denitrification rates in a wheat-soybean rotation cropland

The effects of warming and elevated ozone (O3) concentrations on nitrous oxide (N2O) emission from cropland has received increasing attention; however, the small number of studies on this topic impedes understanding. A field experiment was performed to explore the role of warming and elevated O3 concentrations on N2O emission from wheat-soybean rotation cropland from 2012 to 2013 using open-top chambers (OTCs). Experimental treatments included ambient temperature (control), elevated temperature (+2 °C), elevated O3 (100 ppb), and combined elevated temperature (+2 °C) and O3 (100 ppb). Results demonstrate that warming significantly increased the accumulative amount of N2O (AAN) emitted from the soil-winter wheat system due to enhanced nitrification rates in the wheat farmland and nitrate reductase activity in wheat leaves. However, elevated O3 concentrations significantly decreased AAN emission from the soil-soybean system owing to reduced nitrification rates in the soybean farmland. The combined treatment of warming and elevated O3 inhibited the emission of N2O from the soybean farmland. Additionally, both the warming and combined treatments significantly increased soil nitrification rates in winter wheat and soybean croplands and decreased denitrification rates in the winter wheat cropping system. Our results suggest that global warming and elevated O3 concentrations will strongly affect N2O emission from wheat-soybean rotation croplands.

Evaluation of an Extended PICS (EPICS) for Calibration and Stability Monitoring of Optical Satellite Sensors

Pseudo Invariant Calibration Sites (PICS) have been increasingly used as an independent data source for on-orbit radiometric calibration and stability monitoring of optical satellite sensors. Generally, this would be a small region of land that is extremely stable in time and space, predominantly found in North Africa. Use of these small regions, referred to as traditional PICS, can be limited by: (i) the spatial extent of an individual Region of Interest (ROI) and/or site; (ii) and the frequency of how often the site can be acquired, based on orbital patterns and cloud cover at the site, both impacting the time required to construct a richly populated temporal dataset. This paper uses a new class of continental scaled PICS clusters (also known as Extended PICS or EPICS), to demonstrate their capability in increasing temporal frequency of the calibration time series which ultimately allows calibration and stability assessment at a much finer scale compared to the traditional PICS-based method while also reducing any single location’s potential impact to the overall assessment. The use of EPICS as a calibration site was evaluated using data from Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Sentinel-2A&B Multispectral Instrument (MSI) images at their full spatial resolutions. Initial analysis suggests that EPICS, at its full potential and with nominal cloud consideration, can significantly decrease the temporal revisit interval of moderate resolution sensors to as much as of 0.33 day (3 collects/day). A traditional PICS is expected to have a temporal uncertainty (defined as the ratio of temporal standard deviation and temporal mean) of 2–5% for TOA reflectance. Over the same time period EPICS produced a temporal uncertainty of 3%. But the advantage to be leveraged is the ability to detect sensor change quicker due to the denser dataset and reduce the impact of any potential ‘local’ changes. Moreover, this approach can be extended to any on-orbit sensor. An initial attempt to quantify the minimum detectable change (a threshold slope value which must be exceeded by the reflectance trend to be considered statistically significant) suggests that the use of EPICS can decrease the time period up to approximately half of that found using traditional PICS-based approach.

Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer

As a result of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its amendments, the atmospheric loading of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances is decreasing. Accordingly, the stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover. However, short data records and atmospheric variability confound the search for early signs of recovery, and climate change is masking ozone recovery from ozone-depleting substances in some regions and will increasingly affect the extent of recovery. Here we discuss the nature and timescales of ozone recovery, and explore the extent to which it can be currently detected in different atmospheric regions.

Changes in biologically-active ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth's surface

The Montreal Protocol is working. Concentrations of major ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere are now decreasing, and the decline in total column amounts seen in the 1980s and 1990s at mid-latitudes has not continued. In polar regions, there is much greater natural variability. Each spring, large ozone holes continue to occur in Antarctica and less severe regions of depleted ozone continue to occur in the Arctic. There is evidence that some of these changes are driven by changes in atmospheric circulation rather than being solely attributable to reductions in ozone-depleting substances, which may indicate a linkage to climate change. Global ozone is still lower than in the 1970s and a return to that state is not expected for several decades. As changes in ozone impinge directly on UV radiation, elevated UV radiation due to reduced ozone is expected to continue over that period. Long-term changes in UV-B due to ozone depletion are difficult to verify through direct measurement, but there is strong evidence that UV-B irradiance increased over the period of ozone depletion. At unpolluted sites in the southern hemisphere, there is some evidence that UV-B irradiance has diminished since the late 1990s. The availability and temporal extent of UV data have improved, and we are now able to evaluate the changes in recent times compared with those estimated since the late 1920s, when ozone measurements first became available. The increases in UV-B irradiance over the latter part of the 20th century have been larger than the natural variability. There is increased evidence that aerosols have a larger effect on surface UV-B radiation than previously thought. At some sites in the Northern Hemisphere, UV-B irradiance may continue to increase because of continuing reductions in aerosol extinctions since the 1990s. Interactions between ozone depletion and climate change are complex and can be mediated through changes in chemistry, radiation, and atmospheric circulation patterns. The changes can be in both directions: ozone changes can affect climate, and climate change can affect ozone. The observational evidence suggests that stratospheric ozone (and therefore UV-B) has responded relatively quickly to changes in ozone-depleting substances, implying that climate interactions have not delayed this process. Model calculations predict that at mid-latitudes a return of ozone to pre-1980 levels is expected by the mid 21st century. However, it may take a decade or two longer in polar regions. Climate change can also affect UV radiation through changes in cloudiness and albedo, without involving ozone and since temperature changes over the 21st century are likely to be about 5 times greater than in the past century. This is likely to have significant effects on future cloud, aerosol and surface reflectivity. Consequently, unless strong mitigation measures are undertaken with respect to climate change, profound effects on the biosphere and on the solar UV radiation received at the Earth's surface can be anticipated. The future remains uncertain. Ozone is expected to increase slowly over the decades ahead, but it is not known whether ozone will return to higher levels, or lower levels, than those present prior to the onset of ozone depletion in the 1970s. There is even greater uncertainty about future UV radiation, since it will be additionally influenced by changes in aerosols and clouds.

Effect of cloud cover on UVB exposure under tree canopies: will climate change affect UVB exposure?

The effect of cloud cover on the amount of solar UV radiation that reaches pedestrians under tree cover was evaluated with a three-dimensional canopy radiation transport model. The spatial distribution of UVB irradiance at the base of a regular array of spherical tree crowns was modeled under the full range of sky conditions. The spatial mean relative irradiance (I(r)) and erythemal irradiance of the entire below-canopy domain and the spatial mean relative irradiance and erythemal irradiance in the shaded regions of the domain were determined for solar zenith angles from 15 degrees to 60 degrees. The erythemal UV irradiance under skies with 50% or less cloud cover was not remarkably different from that under clear skies. In the shade, the actual irradiance was greater under partly cloudy than under clear skies. The mean ultraviolet protection factor for tree canopies under skies with 50% or less cloud cover was nearly equivalent to that for clear sky days. Regression equations of spatially averaged I(r) as a function of cloud cover fraction, solar zenith angle and canopy cover were used to predict the variation in erythemal irradiance in different land uses across Baltimore, MD.

The search for signs of recovery of the ozone layer

Evidence of mid-latitude ozone depletion and proof that the Antarctic ozone hole was caused by humans spurred policy makers from the late 1980s onwards to ratify the Montreal Protocol and subsequent treaties, legislating for reduced production of ozone-depleting substances. The case of anthropogenic ozone loss has often been cited since as a success story of international agreements in the regulation of environmental pollution. Although recent data suggest that total column ozone abundances have at least not decreased over the past eight years for most of the world, it is still uncertain whether this improvement is actually attributable to the observed decline in the amount of ozone-depleting substances in the Earth's atmosphere. The high natural variability in ozone abundances, due in part to the solar cycle as well as changes in transport and temperature, could override the relatively small changes expected from the recent decrease in ozone-depleting substances. Whatever the benefits of the Montreal agreement, recovery of ozone is likely to occur in a different atmospheric environment, with changes expected in atmospheric transport, temperature and important trace gases. It is therefore unlikely that ozone will stabilize at levels observed before 1980, when a decline in ozone concentrations was first observed.

Methodological uncertainties in multi-regression analyses of middle-atmospheric data series

Multi-regression analyses have often been used recently to detect trends, in particular in ozone or temperature data sets in the stratosphere. The confidence in detecting trends depends on a number of factors which generate uncertainties. Part of these uncertainties comes from the random variability and these are what is usually considered. They can be statistically estimated from residual deviations between the data and the fitting model. However, interferences between different sources of variability affecting the data set, such as the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation (QBO), volcanic aerosols, solar flux variability and the trend can also be a critical source of errors. This type of error has hitherto not been well quantified. In this work an artificial data series has been generated to carry out such estimates. The sources of errors considered here are: the length of the data series, the dependence on the choice of parameters used in the fitting model and the time evolution of the trend in the data series. Curves provided here, will permit future studies to test the magnitude of the methodological bias expected for a given case, as shown in several real examples. It is found that, if the data series is shorter than a decade, the uncertainties are very large, whatever factors are chosen to identify the source of the variability. However the errors can be limited when dealing with natural variability, if a sufficient number of periods (for periodic forcings) are covered by the analysed dataset. However when analysing the trend, the response to volcanic eruption induces a bias, whatever the length of the data series. The signal to noise ratio is a key factor: doubling the noise increases the period for which data is required in order to obtain an error smaller than 10%, from 1 to 3-4 decades. Moreover, if non-linear trends are superimposed on the data, and if the length of the series is longer than five years, a non-linear function has to be used to estimate trends. When applied to real data series, and when a breakpoint in the series occurs, the study reveals that data extending over 5 years are needed to detect a significant change in the slope of the ozone trends at mid-latitudes.

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2004

The complexity of the linkages between ozone depletion, UV-B radiation and climate change has become more apparent.

Changes in biologically active ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth's surface

Since publication of the 1998 UNEP Assessment, there has been continued rapid expansion of the literature on UV-B radiation. Many measurements have demonstrated the inverse relationship between column ozone amount and UV radiation, and in a few cases long-term increases due to ozone decreases have been identified. The quantity, quality and availability of ground-based UV measurements relevant to assessing the environmental impacts of ozone changes continue to improve. Recent studies have contributed to delineating regional and temporal differences due to aerosols, clouds, and ozone. Improvements in radiative transfer modelling capability now enable more accurate characterization of clouds, snow-cover, and topographical effects. A standardized scale for reporting UV to the public has gained wide acceptance. There has been increased use of satellite data to estimate geographic variability and trends in UV. Progress has been made in assessing the utility of satellite retrievals of UV radiation by comparison with measurements at the Earth's surface. Global climatologies of UV radiation are now available on the Internet. Anthropogenic aerosols play a more important role in attenuating UV irradiances than has been assumed previously, and this will have implications for the accuracy of UV retrievals from satellite data. Progress has been made inferring historical levels of UV radiation using measurements of ozone (from satellites or from ground-based networks) in conjunction with measurements of total solar radiation obtained from extensive meteorological networks. We cannot yet be sure whether global ozone has reached a minimum. Atmospheric chlorine concentrations are beginning to decrease. However, bromine concentrations are still increasing. While these halogen concentrations remain high, the ozone layer remains vulnerable to further depletion from events such as volcanic eruptions that inject material into the stratosphere. Interactions between global warming and ozone depletion could delay ozone recovery by several years, and this topic remains an area of intense research interest. Future changes in greenhouse gases will affect the future evolution of ozone through chemical, radiative, and dynamic processes In this highly coupled system, an evaluation of the relative importance of these processes is difficult: studies are ongoing. A reliable assessment of these effects on total column ozone is limited by uncertainties in lower stratospheric response to these changes. At several sites, changes in UV differ from those expected from ozone changes alone, possibly as a result of long-term changes in aerosols, snow cover, or clouds. This indicates a possible interaction between climate change and UV radiation. Cloud reflectance measured by satellite has shown a long-term increase at some locations, especially in the Antarctic region, but also in Central Europe, which would tend to reduce the UV radiation. Even with the expected decreases in atmospheric chlorine, it will be several years before the beginning of an ozone recovery can be unambiguously identified at individual locations. Because UV-B is more variable than ozone, any identification of its recovery would be further delayed.