Atmospheric Research Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean Region and North American East Coast: A Review of Past Work and Challenges Ahead

Decades of atmospheric research have focused on the Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) region because of its unique location that offers accessibility for airborne and ship measurements, gradients in important atmospheric parameters, and a range of meteorological regimes leading to diverse conditions that are poorly understood. This work reviews these scientific investigations for the WNAO region, including the East Coast of North America and the island of Bermuda. Over 50 field campaigns and long-term monitoring programs, in addition to 715 peer-reviewed publications between 1946 and 2019 have provided a firm foundation of knowledge for these areas. Of particular importance in this region has been extensive work at the island of Bermuda that is host to important time series records of oceanic and atmospheric variables. Our review categorizes WNAO atmospheric research into eight major categories, with some studies fitting into multiple categories (relative %): Aerosols (25%), Gases (24%), Development/Validation of Techniques, Models, and Retrievals (18%), Meteorology and Transport (9%), Air-Sea Interactions (8%), Clouds/Storms (8%), Atmospheric Deposition (7%), and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (2%). Recommendations for future research are provided in the categories highlighted above.

The influence of mid-latitude cyclones on European background surface ozone

The relationship between springtime mid-latitude cyclones and background ozone (O₃) is explored using a combination of observational and reanalysis data sets. First, the relationship between surface O₃ observations at two rural monitoring sites on the west coast of Europe - Mace Head, Ireland and Monte Velho, Portugal - and cyclone track frequency in the surrounding regions is examined. Second, detailed case study examination of four individual mid-latitude cyclones and the influence of the associated frontal passage on surface O₃ is performed. Cyclone tracks have a greater influence on the O₃ measurements at the more northern coastal European station, Mace Head, located within the main North Atlantic (NA) storm track. In particular, when cyclones track north of 53° N, there is a significant relationship with high levels of surface O₃ (> 75th percentile). The further away a cyclone is from the NA storm track, the more likely it will be associated with both high and low (< 25th percentile) levels of O₃ at the observation site during the cyclone's life cycle. The results of the four case studies demonstrate a) the importance of the passage of a cyclone's cold front in relation to surface O₃ measurements, b) the ability of mid-latitude cyclones to bring down high levels of O₃ from the stratosphere and c) that accompanying surface high pressure systems and their associated transport pathways play an important role in the temporal variability of surface O₃. The main source of high O₃ to these two sites in springtime is from the stratosphere, either from direct injection into the cyclone or associated with aged airstreams from decaying downstream cyclones that can become entrained and descend toward the surface within new cyclones over the NA region.

Stratospheric intrusion-influenced ozone air quality exceedances investigated in the NASA MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Stratospheric intrusions have been the interest of decades of research for their ability to bring stratospheric ozone (O3) into the troposphere with the potential to enhance surface O3 concentrations. However, these intrusions have been misrepresented in models and reanalyses until recently, as the features of a stratospheric intrusion are best identified in horizontal resolutions of 50 km or smaller. NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis is a publicly-available high-resolution dataset (~50 km) with assimilated O3 that characterizes O3 on the same spatiotemporal resolution as the meteorology. We demonstrate the science capabilities of the MERRA-2 reanalysis when applied to the evaluation of stratospheric intrusions that impact surface air quality. This is demonstrated through a case study analysis of stratospheric intrusion-influenced O3 exceedences in spring 2012 in Colorado, using a combination of observations, the MERRA-2 reanalysis and the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) simulations.

Air quality and climate connections

Multiple linkages connect air quality and climate change. Many air pollutant sources also emit carbon dioxide (CO2), the dominant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG). The two main contributors to non-attainment of U.S. ambient air quality standards, ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM), interact with radiation, forcing climate change. PM warms by absorbing sunlight (e.g., black carbon) or cools by scattering sunlight (e.g., sulfates) and interacts with clouds; these radiative and microphysical interactions can induce changes in precipitation and regional circulation patterns. Climate change is expected to degrade air quality in many polluted regions by changing air pollution meteorology (ventilation and dilution), precipitation and other removal processes, and by triggering some amplifying responses in atmospheric chemistry and in anthropogenic and natural sources. Together, these processes shape distributions and extreme episodes of O3 and PM. Global modeling indicates that as air pollution programs reduce SO2 to meet health and other air quality goals, near-term warming accelerates due to "unmasking" of warming induced by rising CO2. Air pollutant controls on CH4, a potent GHG and precursor to global O3 levels, and on sources with high black carbon (BC) to organic carbon (OC) ratios could offset near-term warming induced by SO2 emission reductions, while reducing global background O3 and regionally high levels of PM. Lowering peak warming requires decreasing atmospheric CO2, which for some source categories would also reduce co-emitted air pollutants or their precursors. Model projections for alternative climate and air quality scenarios indicate a wide range for U.S. surface O3 and fine PM, although regional projections may be confounded by interannual to decadal natural climate variability. Continued implementation of U.S. NOx emission controls guards against rising pollution levels triggered either by climate change or by global emission growth. Improved accuracy and trends in emission inventories are critical for accountability analyses of historical and projected air pollution and climate mitigation policies.

IMPLICATIONS

The expansion of U.S. air pollution policy to protect climate provides an opportunity for joint mitigation, with CH4 a prime target. BC reductions in developing nations would lower the global health burden, and for BC-rich sources (e.g., diesel) may lessen warming. Controls on these emissions could offset near-term warming induced by health-motivated reductions of sulfate (cooling). Wildfires, dust, and other natural PM and O3 sources may increase with climate warming, posing challenges to implementing and attaining air quality standards. Accountability analyses for recent and projected air pollution and climate control strategies should underpin estimated benefits and trade-offs of future policies.

Climate variability modulates western US ozone air quality in spring via deep stratospheric intrusions

Evidence suggests deep stratospheric intrusions can elevate western US surface ozone to unhealthy levels during spring. These intrusions can be classified as 'exceptional events', which are not counted towards non-attainment determinations. Understanding the factors driving the year-to-year variability of these intrusions is thus relevant for effective implementation of the US ozone air quality standard. Here we use observations and model simulations to link these events to modes of climate variability. We show more frequent late spring stratospheric intrusions when the polar jet meanders towards the western United States, such as occurs following strong La Niña winters (Niño3.4<-1.0 °C). While El Niño leads to enhancements of upper tropospheric ozone, we find this influence does not reach surface air. Fewer and weaker intrusion events follow in the two springs after the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. The linkage between La Niña and western US stratospheric intrusions can be exploited to provide a few months of lead time during which preparations could be made to deploy targeted measurements aimed at identifying these exceptional events.