The search for signs of recovery of the ozone layer

Evidence of mid-latitude ozone depletion and proof that the Antarctic ozone hole was caused by humans spurred policy makers from the late 1980s onwards to ratify the Montreal Protocol and subsequent treaties, legislating for reduced production of ozone-depleting substances. The case of anthropogenic ozone loss has often been cited since as a success story of international agreements in the regulation of environmental pollution. Although recent data suggest that total column ozone abundances have at least not decreased over the past eight years for most of the world, it is still uncertain whether this improvement is actually attributable to the observed decline in the amount of ozone-depleting substances in the Earth's atmosphere. The high natural variability in ozone abundances, due in part to the solar cycle as well as changes in transport and temperature, could override the relatively small changes expected from the recent decrease in ozone-depleting substances. Whatever the benefits of the Montreal agreement, recovery of ozone is likely to occur in a different atmospheric environment, with changes expected in atmospheric transport, temperature and important trace gases. It is therefore unlikely that ozone will stabilize at levels observed before 1980, when a decline in ozone concentrations was first observed.

Short-term variations in the oxidizing power of the atmosphere

The hydroxyl radical is the predominant atmospheric oxidant, responsible for removing a wide range of trace gases, including greenhouse gases, from the atmosphere. Determination of trends and variability in hydroxyl radical concentrations is critical to understanding whether the 'cleansing' properties of the atmosphere are changing. The variability in hydroxyl radical concentrations on annual to monthly timescales, however, is difficult to quantify. Here we show records of carbon monoxide containing radiocarbon (14CO), which is oxidized by hydroxyl radicals, from clean-air sites at Baring Head, New Zealand, and Scott Base, Antarctica, spanning 13 years. Using a model study, we correct for known variations in production of 14CO (refs 6, 7), allowing us to exploit this species as a diagnostic for short term changes in hydroxyl radical concentrations. We find no significant long-term trend in hydroxyl radical concentrations but provide evidence for recurring short-term variations of around ten per cent persisting for a few months. We also find decreases in hydroxyl radical concentrations of up to 20 per cent, apparently triggered by the eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1991 and by the occurrence of extensive fires in Indonesia in 1997.