Complex geometry of volcanic vents and asymmetric particle ejection: experimental insights

Explosive volcanic eruptions eject a gas-particle mixture into the atmosphere. The characteristics of this mixture in the near-vent region are a direct consequence of the underlying initial conditions at fragmentation and the geometry of the shallow plumbing system. Yet, it is not possible to observe directly the sub-surface parameters that drive such eruptions. Here, we use scaled shock-tube experiments mimicking volcanic explosions in order to elucidate the effects of a number of initial conditions. As volcanic vents can be expected to possess an irregular geometry, we utilise three vent designs, two "complex" vents and a vent with a "real" volcanic geometry. The defining geometry elements of the "complex" vents are a bilateral symmetry with a slanted top plane. The "real" geometry is based on a photogrammetric 3D model of an active volcanic vent with a steep and a diverging vent side. Particle size and density as well as experimental pressure are varied. Our results reveal a strong influence of the vent geometry, on both the direction and the magnitude of particle spreading and the velocity of particles. The overpressure at the vent herby controls the direction of the asymmetry of the gas-particle jet. These findings have implications for the distribution of volcanic ejecta and resulting areas at risk.

Linking gas and particle ejection dynamics to boundary conditions in scaled shock-tube experiments

Predicting the onset, style and duration of explosive volcanic eruptions remains a great challenge. While the fundamental underlying processes are thought to be known, a clear correlation between eruptive features observable above Earth's surface and conditions and properties in the immediate subsurface is far from complete. Furthermore, the highly dynamic nature and inaccessibility of explosive events means that progress in the field investigation of such events remains slow. Scaled experimental investigations represent an opportunity to study individual volcanic processes separately and, despite their highly dynamic nature, to quantify them systematically. Here, impulsively generated vertical gas-particle jets were generated using rapid decompression shock-tube experiments. The angular deviation from the vertical, defined as the "spreading angle", has been quantified for gas and particles on both sides of the jets at different time steps using high-speed video analysis. The experimental variables investigated are 1) vent geometry, 2) tube length, 3) particle load, 4) particle size, and 5) temperature. Immediately prior to the first above-vent observations, gas expansion accommodates the initial gas overpressure. All experimental jets inevitably start with a particle-free gas phase (gas-only), which is typically clearly visible due to expansion-induced cooling and condensation. We record that the gas spreading angle is directly influenced by 1) vent geometry and 2) the duration of the initial gas-only phase. After some delay, whose length depends on the experimental conditions, the jet incorporates particles becoming a gas-particle jet. Below we quantify how our experimental conditions affect the temporal evolution of these two phases (gas-only and gas-particle) of each jet. As expected, the gas spreading angle is always at least as large as the particle spreading angle. The latter is positively correlated with particle load and negatively correlated with particle size. Such empirical experimentally derived relationships between the observable features of the gas-particle jets and known initial conditions can serve as input for the parameterisation of equivalent observations at active volcanoes, alleviating the circumstances where an a priori knowledge of magma textures and ascent rate, temperature and gas overpressure and/or the geometry of the shallow plumbing system is typically chronically lacking. The generation of experimental parameterisations raises the possibility that detailed field investigations on gas-particle jets at frequently erupting volcanoes might be used for elucidating subsurface parameters and their temporal variability, with all the implications that may have for better defining hazard assessment.

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The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00445-021-01473-0.

Modelling pyroclastic density currents from a subplinian eruption at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (West Indies, France)

We have used a three-dimensional, non-equilibrium multiphase flow numerical model to simulate subplinian eruption scenarios at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles, France). Initial and boundary conditions for computer simulations were set on the basis of independent estimates of eruption source parameters (i.e. mass eruption rate, volatile content, temperature, grain size distribution) from a field reconstruction of the 1530 CE subplinian eruption. This event is here taken as a reference scenario for hazard assessment at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe. A parametric study on eruption source parameters allowed us to quantify their influence on the simulated dynamics and, in particular, the increase of the percentage of column collapse and pyroclastic density current (PDC) intensity, at constant mass eruption rate, with variable vent diameter. Numerical results enabled us to quantify the effects of the proximal morphology on distributing the collapsing mass around the volcano and into deep and long valleys and to estimate the areas invaded by PDCs, their associated temperature and dynamic pressure. Significant impact (temperature > 300 °C and dynamic pressure > 1 kPa) in the inhabited region around the volcano is expected for fully collapsing conditions and mass eruption rates > 2 × 10⁷ kg/s. We thus combine this spatial distribution of temperature and dynamic pressure with an objective consideration of model-related uncertainty to produce preliminary PDC hazard maps for the reference scenario. In such a representation, we identify three areas of varying degree of susceptibility to invasion by PDCs-very likely to be invaded (and highly impacted), susceptible to invasion (and moderately impacted), and unlikely to be invaded (or marginally impacted). The study also raises some key questions about the use of deterministic scenario simulations for hazard assessment, where probability distributions and uncertainties are difficult to estimate. Use of high-performance computing techniques will in part allow us to overcome such difficulties, but the problem remains open in a scientific context where validation of numerical models is still, necessarily, an incomplete and ongoing process. Nevertheless, our findings provide an important contribution to the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazard and risk at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe particularly in the context of the current unrest of the volcano and the need to prepare for a possible future reawakening of the volcano that could culminate in a magmatic explosive eruption.

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The online version of this article (10.1007/s00445-020-01411-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Use of a Numerical Weather Prediction Model to Simulate Near-Field Volcanic Plumes

In this paper, a state-of the art numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is used to simulate the near-field plume of a Plinian-type volcanic eruption. The NWP model is run at very high resolution (of the order of 100 m) and includes a representation of physical processes, including turbulence and buoyancy, that are essential components of eruption column dynamics. Results are shown that illustrate buoyant gas plume dynamics in an atmosphere at rest and in an atmosphere with background wind, and we show that these results agree well with those from theoretical models in the quiescent atmosphere. For wind-blown plumes, we show that features observed in experimental and natural settings are reproduced in our model. However, when comparing with predictions from an integral model using existing entrainment closures there are marked differences. We speculate that these are signatures of a difference in turbulent mixing for uniform and shear flow profiles in a stratified atmosphere. A more complex implementation is given to show that the model may also be used to examine the dispersion of heavy volcanic gases such as sulphur dioxide. Starting from the standard version of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, we show that minimal modifications are needed in order to model volcanic plumes. This suggests that the modified NWP model can be used in the forecasting of plume evolution during future volcanic events, in addition to providing a virtual laboratory for the testing of hypotheses regarding plume behaviour.

The footprint of column collapse regimes on pyroclastic flow temperatures and plume heights

The gravitational collapse of eruption columns generates ground-hugging pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) with highly variable temperatures, high enough to be a threat for communities surrounding volcanoes. The reasons for such great temperature variability are debated in terms of eruptive versus transport and emplacement processes. Here, using a three-dimensional multiphase model, we show that the initial temperature of PDCs linearly correlates to the percentage of collapsing mass, with a maximum temperature decrease of 45% in the case of low percentages of collapse (10%), owing to an efficient entrainment of air into the jet structure. Analyses also demonstrate that column collapse limits the dispersal capabilities of volcanic plumes, reducing their maximum height by up to 45%. Our findings provide quantitative insights into the mechanism of turbulent mixing, and suggest that temperatures of PDC deposits may serve as a marker for determining column collapse conditions, which are of primarily importance in hazard studies.

Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are a major threat during explosive volcanic eruptions, hence the possibility to forecast them would be a vital improvement for risk mitigation. Here the authors present a 3D flow model to quantify the thermal patterns leading to volcanic ash plume collapse conditions.

Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for "full-scale" risk management

The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy) poses very high risk to the highly urbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activity producing pyroclastic currents (hereon PCs; acronym for Pyroclastic Currents) ranging in scale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilistic numerical simulation approaches to produce PC hazard maps, based on a comprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps are incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and provide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) scenarios from different source vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For each VEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PCs (i.e., the probability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PCs in case of a PC-forming explosive event) and related dynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PCs from VEI<4 events would be confined within the Campi Flegrei caldera, PC propagation being impeded by the northern and eastern caldera walls. Conversely, PCs from VEI 4–5 events could invade a wide area beyond the northern caldera rim, as well as part of the Naples metropolitan area to the east. A major controlling factor of PC dispersal is represented by the location of the vent area. PCs from the potentially largest eruption scenarios (analogous to the ~15 ka, VEI 6 Neapolitan Yellow Tuff or even the ~39 ka, VEI 7 Campanian Ignimbrite extreme event) would affect a large part of the Campanian Plain to the north and the city of Naples to the east. Thus, in case of renewal of eruptive activity at Campi Flegrei, up to 3 million people will be potentially exposed to volcanic hazard, pointing out the urgency of an emergency plan. Considering the present level of uncertainty in forecasting the future eruption type, size and location (essentially based on statistical analysis of previous activity), we suggest that appropriate planning measures should face at least the VEI 5 reference scenario (at least 2 occurrences documented in the last 10 ka).

The Campi Flegrei caldera: unrest mechanisms and hazards

In the last four decades, Campi Flegrei caldera has been the world’s most active caldera characterized by intense unrest episodes involving huge ground deformation and seismicity, but, at the time of writing, has not culminated in an eruption. We present a careful review, with new analyses and interpretation, of all the data and recent research results. We deal with three main problems: the tentative reconstruction of the substructure; the modelling of unrest episodes to shed light on possible pre-eruptive scenarios; and the probabilistic estimation of the hazards from explosive pyroclastic products. The results show, for the first time at a volcano, that a very peculiar mechanism is generating episodes of unrest, involving mainly activation of the geothermal system from deeper magma reservoirs. The character and evolution of unrest episodes is strongly controlled by structural features, like the ring-fault system at the borders of the caldera collapse. The use of detailed volcanological, mathematical and statistical procedures also make it possible to obtain a detailed picture of eruptive hazards in the whole Neapolitan area. The complex behaviour of this caldera, involving interaction between magmatic and geothermal phenomena, sheds light on the dynamics of the most dangerous types of volcanoes in the world.