Modeling Maximum Tsunami Heights Using Bayesian Neural Networks

Tsunamis are distinguished from ordinary waves and currents owing to their characteristic longer wavelengths. Although the occurrence frequency of tsunamis is low, it can contribute to the loss of a large number of human lives as well as property damage. To date, tsunami research has concentrated on developing numerical models to predict tsunami heights and run-up heights with improved accuracy because hydraulic experiments are associated with high costs for laboratory installation and maintenance. Recently, artificial intelligence has been developed and has revealed outstanding performance in science and engineering fields. In this study, we estimated the maximum tsunami heights for virtual tsunamis. Tsunami numerical simulation was performed to obtain tsunami height profiles for historical tsunamis and virtual tsunamis. Subsequently, Bayesian neural networks were employed to predict maximum tsunami heights for virtual tsunamis.

Numerical and Probabilistic Study on the Optimal Region for Tsunami Detection Instrument Deployment in the Eastern Sea of Korea

A tsunami is a significant coastal hazard that causes destructive damage to coastal cities in the world. Besides, tsunamis, generated on the west coast of Japan, damaged coastal cities on the east coast of Korea in 1983 and 1993. In recent years, there has been increasing interest in the potential tsunami zone near the west coast of Japan. Therefore, it is important to have tsunami observation instruments in proper locations for tsunami detection and warning aspect. This study proposes the optimal region for offshore tsunami observation instrument deployment under the limited condition that the tsunami source in out of the territorial sea by investigating areas with the highest tsunami detection probability along with maximum evacuation time and bottom slope. Using the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami (COMCOT) numerical model and a probabilistic approach, this study suggests the optimal region for offshore tsunami detection instrument deployment to be the northeast area of Ulleung-do Island in the eastern sea of Korea.