Pacific Ocean-originated anthropogenic carbon and its long-term variations in the South China Sea

Coastal oceans, traditionally seen as a conduit for transporting atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)-derived anthropogenic carbon (CANT) to open oceans, exhibit complex carbon exchanges at their interface. South China Sea (SCS) exemplifies this complexity, where interactions with the Pacific, particularly through Kuroshio intrusion, challenge the understanding of CANT source and variability in a coastal ocean. Contrary to prevailing paradigm expectations, our high-resolution, long-term data reveal that CANT in the SCS primarily originates from Pacific water injection across the Luzon Strait rather than atmospheric CO2 invasion. Over the past two decades, the SCS has experienced increasing CANT levels, with notable interannual fluctuations driven by El Niño and La Niña events influencing Kuroshio intrusion, generating anomalously high and low CANT inventories, respectively. This highlights an overlooked CANT transport pathway from open to coastal oceans, responsible for cumulative ocean acidification that has already affected coral reefs enriched in the SCS located west of the Coral Triangle.

Diffusion controls the ventilation of a Pacific Shadow Zone above abyssal overturning

Mid-depth North Pacific waters are rich in nutrients and respired carbon accumulated over centuries. The rates and pathways with which these waters exchange with the surface ocean are uncertain, with divergent paradigms of the Pacific overturning: one envisions bottom waters upwelling to 1.5 km depth; the other confines overturning beneath a mid-depth Pacific shadow zone (PSZ) shielded from mean advection. Here global inverse modelling reveals a PSZ where mean ages exceed 1400 years with overturning beneath. The PSZ is supplied primarily by Antarctic and North-Atlantic ventilated waters diffusing from below and from the south. Half of PSZ waters re-surface in the Southern Ocean, a quarter in the subarctic Pacific. The abyssal North Pacific, despite strong overturning, has mean re-surfacing times also exceeding 1400 years because of diffusion into the overlying PSZ. These results imply that diffusive transports – distinct from overturning transports – are a leading control on Pacific nutrient and carbon storage.

The deep North Pacific is the end of the road for global ocean circulation, but the circulation patterns and ventilation are poorly understood. Here the authors show that diffusive transports both along and across density layers play a leading role in returning 1,400 year old water to the surface.

Weakened overturning and tide control the properties of Oyashio Intermediate Water, a key water mass in the North Pacific

The western subarctic Pacific exhibits major biological productivity fed by the Oyashio Current and its two source waters: Western Subarctic Water, which supplies nutrients from the subarctic Pacific, and cold Okhotsk Sea Intermediate Water (OSIW), which supplies iron from the Sea of Okhotsk. We created seasonal climatologies of water properties to understand how the long-term trend (~ 50 years) and 18.6-year tidal cycle affect the Oyashio Intermediate Water (OYW). We found that over the trend, decreased OSIW outflow due to weakening of North Pacific overturning modifies OYW in winter. Meanwhile, OSIW outflow increases (decreases) in strong (weak) tide years. We predict that the opposite effects of the trend and strong tide will lead to stagnation of OYW properties until the mid-2020s, followed by accelerated warming until the mid-2030s (weak tide). A predicted 1 °C increase in OYW temperature and 50% decrease in OSIW content between 1960 and 2040 potentially have significant impact on biological productivity and carbon drawdown in the North Pacific.

Surface water mixing estimated from 228Ra and 226Ra in the northwestern North Pacific

We investigated the horizontal distributions of (228)Ra and (226)Ra in surface waters of the northwestern North Pacific Ocean and Okhotsk Sea. Ratios of (228)Ra/(226)Ra were relatively large in the Tsugaru Current (0.6-0.8) and Okhotsk Sea (0.4-0.5), and small in the Western Subarctic Gyre (<0.2) and the Oyashio (0.25-0.3). (228)Ra/(226)Ra ratios in western Subarctic Water (SAW) rose slightly upon mixing with Okhotsk Water (OKW), before becoming the Oyashio Water (OYW). Also, ratios in the OYW increased during mixing with Tsugaru Current Water (TCW). Estimating from (228)Ra/(226)Ra ratios and (226)Ra activities with a simple two-end members-mixing model, we assumed that approximately 23% of the OYW originated from the OKW and the coastal region off northern Honshu (Japan) was strongly influenced by the TCW. From a diagram of (228)Ra activities against salinity, we could roughly divide surface seawater in the study area into the five water masses, which were SAW, OYW, OKW, TCW, and Subtropical Water (STW).

High-latitude controls of thermocline nutrients and low latitude biological productivity

The ocean's biological pump strips nutrients out of the surface waters and exports them into the thermocline and deep waters. If there were no return path of nutrients from deep waters, the biological pump would eventually deplete the surface waters and thermocline of nutrients; surface biological productivity would plummet. Here we make use of the combined distributions of silicic acid and nitrate to trace the main nutrient return path from deep waters by upwelling in the Southern Ocean and subsequent entrainment into subantarctic mode water. We show that the subantarctic mode water, which spreads throughout the entire Southern Hemisphere and North Atlantic Ocean, is the main source of nutrients for the thermocline. We also find that an additional return path exists in the northwest corner of the Pacific Ocean, where enhanced vertical mixing, perhaps driven by tides, brings abyssal nutrients to the surface and supplies them to the thermocline of the North Pacific. Our analysis has important implications for our understanding of large-scale controls on the nature and magnitude of low-latitude biological productivity and its sensitivity to climate change.