Exponential feedback effects in a parametric resonance climate model

The variations in the distribution of solar radiation due to the  ~ 105 years Milankovitch cycle, which is connected to the Earth eccentricity variation, cannot explain the sharp drop in temperature of 6 °C ÷ 10 °C that marks the transition from the interglacial to the glacial age registered in the last ~ 5.5 106 years temperature variation behavior. More specifically, neglecting other effects, only a temperature variation of 0.2 °C ÷ 0.3 °C can be attributed to this cycle and, therefore, positive feedback effects should be taken into account to explain the registered effect. In the present work, a comparative Wavelet-Fourier analysis of the Vostok recontructed temperature record, for which different sampling steps are taken into account, is performed. Then, a study of exponential feedback effects within a climate parametric resonance model is dealt and discussed. The obtained findings put into evidence an exponential amplification of the temperature variation from the interglacial to the glacial age supporting the hypothesis that the system energization be connected to periodic variations in the internal solar system parameters. More in details, it is shown that, following the parametric resonance climate model, even small oscillations increase over time proportionally to the system energy itself, i.e. exponentially, and hence, a series of connected resonances is able to energize the climate system.

Intensified microbial sulfate reduction in the deep Dead Sea during the early Holocene Mediterranean sapropel 1 deposition

The hypersaline Dead Sea and its sediments are natural laboratories for studying extremophile microorganism habitat response to environmental change. In modern times, increased freshwater runoff to the lake surface waters resulted in stratification and dilution of the upper water column followed by microbial blooms. However, whether these events facilitated a microbial response in the deep lake and sediments is obscure. Here we investigate archived evidence of microbial processes and changing regional hydroclimate conditions by reconstructing deep Dead Sea chemical compositions from pore fluid major ion concentration and stable S, O, and C isotopes, together with lipid biomarkers preserved in the hypersaline deep Dead Sea ICDP-drilled core sediments dating to the early Holocene (ca. 10,000 years BP). Following a significant negative lake water balance resulting in salt layer deposits at the start of the Holocene, there was a general period of positive net water balance at 9500-8300 years BP. The pore fluid isotopic composition of sulfate exhibit evidence of intensified microbial sulfate reduction, where both δ34S and δ18O of sulfate show a sharp increase from estimated base values of 15.0‰ and 13.9‰ to 40.2‰ and 20.4‰, respectively, and a δ34S vs. δ18O slope of 0.26. The presence of the n-C₁₇ alkane biomarker in the sediments suggests an increase of cyanobacteria or phytoplankton contribution to the bulk organic matter that reached the deepest parts of the Dead Sea. Although hydrologically disconnected, both the Mediterranean Sea and the Dead Sea microbial ecosystems responded to increased freshwater runoff during the early Holocene, with the former depositing the organic-rich sapropel 1 layer due to anoxic water column conditions. In the Dead Sea prolonged positive net water balance facilitated primary production and algal blooms in the upper waters and intensified microbial sulfate reduction in the hypolimnion and/or at the sediment-brine interface.

On the Breaking of the Milankovitch Cycles Triggered by Temperature Increase: The Stochastic Resonance Response

Recent decades have registered the hottest temperature variation in instrumentally recorded data history. The registered temperature rise is particularly significant in the so-called hot spot or sentinel regions, characterized by higher temperature increases in respect to the planet average value and by more marked connected effects. In this framework, in the present work, following the climate stochastic resonance model, the effects, due to a temperature increase independently from a specific trend, connected to the 105 year Milankovitch cycle were tested. As a result, a breaking scenario induced by global warming is forecasted. More specifically, a wavelet analysis, innovatively performed with different sampling times, allowed us, besides to fully characterize the cycles periodicities, to quantitatively determine the stochastic resonance conditions by optimizing the noise level. Starting from these system resonance conditions, numerical simulations for increasing planet temperatures have been performed. The obtained results show that an increase of the Earth temperature boosts a transition towards a chaotic regime where the Milankovitch cycle effects disappear. These results put into evidence the so-called threshold effect, namely the fact that also a small temperature increase can give rise to great effects above a given threshold, furnish a perspective point of view of a possible future climate scenario, and provide an account of the ongoing registered intensity increase of extreme meteorological events.

Climate change shapes the future evolution of plant metabolism

Planet Earth has experienced many dramatic atmospheric and climatic changes throughout its 4.5-billion-year history that have profoundly impacted the evolution of life as we know it. Photosynthetic organisms, and specifically plants, have played a paramount role in shaping the Earth's atmosphere through oxygen production and carbon sequestration. In turn, the diversity of plants has been shaped by historical atmospheric and climatic changes: plants rose to this challenge by evolving new developmental and metabolic traits. These adaptive traits help plants to thrive in diverse growth conditions, while benefiting humanity through the production of food, raw materials, and medicines. However, the current rapid rate of climate change caused by human activities presents unprecedented new challenges to the future of plants. Here, we discuss the potential effects of modern climate change on plants, with specific attention to plant specialized metabolism. We explore potential avenues of future scientific investigations, powered by cutting-edge methods such as synthetic biology and genome engineering, to better understand and mitigate the consequences of rapid climate change on plant fitness and plant usage by humans.

A Physical–Mathematical Approach to Climate Change Effects through Stochastic Resonance

The aim of this work is to study the effects induced by climate changes in the framework of the stochastic resonance approach. First, a wavelet cross-correlation analysis on Earth temperature data concerning the last 5,500,000 years is performed; this analysis confirms a correlation between the planet’s temperature and the 100,000, 41,000, and 23,000-year periods of the Milankovitch orbital cycles. Then, the stochastic resonance model is invoked. Specific attention is given to the study of the impact of the registered global temperature increase within the stochastic model. Further, a numerical simulation has been performed, based on: (1) A double-well potential, (2) an external periodic modulation, corresponding to the orbit eccentricity cycle, and (3) an increased value of the global Earth temperature. The effect of temperature increase represents one of the novelties introduced in the present study and is determined by downshifting the interaction potential used within the stochastic resonance model. The numeric simulation results show that, for simulated increasing values of the global temperature, the double-well system triggers changes, while at higher temperatures (as in the case of the absence of a global temperature increase although with a different threshold) the system goes into a chaotic regime. The wavelet analysis allows characterization of the stochastic resonance condition through the evaluation of the signal-to-noise ratio. On the basis of the obtained findings, we hypothesize that the global temperature increase can suppress, on a large time scale corresponding to glacial cycles, the external periodic modulation effects and, hence, the glacial cycles.

High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present

Changes in past atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations can be determined by measuring the composition of air trapped in ice cores from Antarctica. So far, the Antarctic Vostok and EPICA Dome C ice cores have provided a composite record of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past 650,000 years. Here we present results of the lowest 200 m of the Dome C ice core, extending the record of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration by two complete glacial cycles to 800,000 yr before present. From previously published data and the present work, we find that atmospheric carbon dioxide is strongly correlated with Antarctic temperature throughout eight glacial cycles but with significantly lower concentrations between 650,000 and 750,000 yr before present. Carbon dioxide levels are below 180 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) for a period of 3,000 yr during Marine Isotope Stage 16, possibly reflecting more pronounced oceanic carbon storage. We report the lowest carbon dioxide concentration measured in an ice core, which extends the pre-industrial range of carbon dioxide concentrations during the late Quaternary by about 10 p.p.m.v. to 172-300 p.p.m.v.

The record for marine isotopic stage 11

The marine isotopic stage 11 (MIS 11) is an extraordinarily long interglacial period in the Earth's history that occurred some 400,000 years ago and lasted for about 30,000 years. During this period there were weak, astronomically induced changes in the distribution of solar energy reaching the Earth. The conditions of this orbital climate forcing are similar to those of today's interglacial period, and they rendered the climate susceptible to other forcing--for example, to changes in the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here we use ice-core data from the Antarctic Vostok core to reconstruct a complete atmospheric carbon dioxide record for MIS 11. The record indicates that values for carbon dioxide throughout the interglacial period were close to the Earth's pre-industrial levels and that both solar energy and carbon dioxide may have helped to make MIS 11 exceptionally long. Anomalies in the oceanic carbonate system recorded in marine sediments at the time, for example while coral reefs were forming, apparently left no signature on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core

The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago (Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long--28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.

Timing of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature changes across termination III

The analysis of air bubbles from ice cores has yielded a precise record of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, but the timing of changes in these gases with respect to temperature is not accurately known because of uncertainty in the gas age-ice age difference. We have measured the isotopic composition of argon in air bubbles in the Vostok core during Termination III (approximately 240,000 years before the present). This record most likely reflects the temperature and accumulation change, although the mechanism remains unclear. The sequence of events during Termination III suggests that the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 +/- 200 years and preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.