Interplay of tectonic and dynamic processes shaping multilayer extensional system in southern-central Apennines

High-hazard seismic zones can remain silent over centuries with meager seismicity rates challenging our understanding of seismic processes. We focus on the comprehensive analysis of cascading episodes of swarms and seismic sequences following the 2009 L'Aquila mainshock (MW 6.3) in the southern-central Apennine that previously experienced ~ M7 earthquakes. We enhance the seismic catalog, unmasking low-magnitude seismicity down to completeness magnitude ML ~ 0, and we unveil that the microseismicity might be secondarily triggered by the L'Aquila mainshock, influencing the frictional properties in the nearby fault zones or opening fault valves generating the intense seismic activity detected from 2009 to 2013. The diffusivity, observed in the most seismic episodes, and the high Vp/Vs values (> 1.88) indicate fluid circulation promoting multilayered extensional seismicity within 11-15 km and 16-23 km depth ranges. Mapping the 3D distribution of seismicity alongside geological data reveals an evident tectonic influence, unveiling unknown geometric aspects and providing the first evidence of a NNE-dipping deformation zone bounding at depths of 11-15 km the overlying fault system. Deeper seismicity suggests a mantellic CO2 ascending shape. These findings enrich the literature on tectonic seismic swarms in extensional domains, providing essential constraints on fluid involvement in the seismic processes and contributing to forthcoming discussions on the seismotectonic setting in high-seismic-risk areas of the Apennines of Italy.

Correlation between seismic activity and tidal stress perturbations highlights growing instability within the brittle crust

Faults become more and more responsive to stress perturbations as instability mounts. We utilize this property in order to identify the different phases of the seismic cycle. Our analysis provides new insights about the features of impending mainshocks, which are proposed to emerge from a large-scale crustal-weakening preparation process whose duration depends on their seismic moments, according to the power-law T \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\propto$$\end{document}∝ M\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$_{0}^{1/3}$$\end{document}01/3 for M\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$_{0}$$\end{document}0\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\le$$\end{document}≤ 10\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$^{19}$$\end{document}19 N m. Moreover, further studies are performed about the impact of tidal stress perturbation on seismicity; in particular, the relationship between frequency-magnitude scaling and perturbations is discussed, showing that the sensitivity of earthquakes to solid Earth tides decreases as their magnitudes increase.

Synchronization of megathrust earthquakes to periodic slow slip events in a single-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model

Recently recognized slow slip events (SSEs) recurring in the deeper extensions of seismogenic zones along plate boundaries are drawing attention to their potential for triggering megathrust earthquakes that rupture the entire seismogenic zone. We describe how earthquakes simulated in a single-degree-of-freedom model are synchronized to the rhythm of imposed periodic SSEs. The time lag t_Q from the one most recent SSE to a seismic event varies with system parameters and may take a broad range of eligible values between 0 and T_SSE (SSE recurrence period). Earthquakes were found to synchronize with SSEs in various patterns depending on the proportion of SSE-driven loading within an SSE cycle, the recurrence period of the SSEs, and the duration of the SSEs, although synchronization itself remained a prevalent feature. Asynchrony was found only for long SSE durations.

PageRank: An alarming index of probable earthquake occurrence

Here, we introduce PageRank (PR) in a seismic network as an appropriate alarming clue before the occurrence of the event to be worthwhile in hazard probabilistic evaluation of earthquakes. Studying PR changes of two main shocks in Iran and Italy by means of temporal and spatial windows reveals that their PR values increase drastically before the event, while there is no trend for other considered locations and/or other time intervals. Therefore, the PR value seems to be an appropriate index of a place induction by previous events and its susceptibility for having a new earthquake. Moreover, summing over the PRs of areas close to the Italy event location and tracking this newly defined PR behavior show an increasing trend before the main shock implying that the close regions are influenced and become highly connected before the event as well as the earthquake location itself. It is also indicated that PR behavior is not necessarily correlated to the number of occurring earthquakes and is inherently the result of points connectivity and interactions.

Phase response curves for models of earthquake fault dynamics

We systematically study effects of external perturbations on models describing earthquake fault dynamics. The latter are based on the framework of the Burridge-Knopoff spring-block system, including the cases of a simple mono-block fault, as well as the paradigmatic complex faults made up of two identical or distinct blocks. The blocks exhibit relaxation oscillations, which are representative for the stick-slip behavior typical for earthquake dynamics. Our analysis is carried out by determining the phase response curves of first and second order. For a mono-block fault, we consider the impact of a single and two successive pulse perturbations, further demonstrating how the profile of phase response curves depends on the fault parameters. For a homogeneous two-block fault, our focus is on the scenario where each of the blocks is influenced by a single pulse, whereas for heterogeneous faults, we analyze how the response of the system depends on whether the stimulus is applied to the block having a shorter or a longer oscillation period.

Anthropogenic triggering of large earthquakes

The physical mechanism of the anthropogenic triggering of large earthquakes on active faults is studied on the basis of experimental phenomenology, i.e., that earthquakes occur on active tectonic faults, that crustal stress values are those measured in situ and, on active faults, comply to the values of the stress drop measured for real earthquakes, that the static friction coefficients are those inferred on faults, and that the effective triggering stresses are those inferred for real earthquakes. Deriving the conditions for earthquake nucleation as a time-dependent solution of the Tresca-Von Mises criterion applied in the framework of poroelasticity yields that active faults can be triggered by fluid overpressures < 0.1 MPa. Comparing this with the deviatoric stresses at the depth of crustal hypocenters, which are of the order of 1-10 MPa, we find that injecting in the subsoil fluids at the pressures typical of oil and gas production and storage may trigger destructive earthquakes on active faults at a few tens of kilometers. Fluid pressure propagates as slow stress waves along geometric paths operating in a drained condition and can advance the natural occurrence of earthquakes by a substantial amount of time. Furthermore, it is illusory to control earthquake triggering by close monitoring of minor "foreshocks", since the induction may occur with a delay up to several years.

Triggered dynamics in a model of different fault creep regimes

The study is focused on the effect of transient external force induced by a passing seismic wave on fault motion in different creep regimes. Displacement along the fault is represented by the movement of a spring-block model, whereby the uniform and oscillatory motion correspond to the fault dynamics in post-seismic and inter-seismic creep regime, respectively. The effect of the external force is introduced as a change of block acceleration in the form of a sine wave scaled by an exponential pulse. Model dynamics is examined for variable parameters of the induced acceleration changes in reference to periodic oscillations of the unperturbed system above the supercritical Hopf bifurcation curve. The analysis indicates the occurrence of weak irregular oscillations if external force acts in the post-seismic creep regime. When fault motion is exposed to external force in the inter-seismic creep regime, one finds the transition to quasiperiodic- or chaos-like motion, which we attribute to the precursory creep regime and seismic motion, respectively. If the triggered acceleration changes are of longer duration, a reverse transition from inter-seismic to post-seismic creep regime is detected on a larger time scale.

Earthquake nucleation by transient deformations caused by the M = 7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake

The permanent and dynamic (transient) stress changes inferred to trigger earthquakes are usually orders of magnitude smaller than the stresses relaxed by the earthquakes themselves, implying that triggering occurs on critically stressed faults. Triggered seismicity rate increases may therefore be most likely to occur in areas where loading rates are highest and elevated pore pressures, perhaps facilitated by high-temperature fluids, reduce frictional stresses and promote failure. Here we show that the 2002 magnitude M = 7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake triggered widespread seismicity rate increases throughout British Columbia and into the western United States. Dynamic triggering by seismic waves should be enhanced in directions where rupture directivity focuses radiated energy, and we verify this using seismic and new high-sample GPS recordings of the Denali mainshock. These observations are comparable in scale only to the triggering caused by the 1992 M = 7.4 Landers, California, earthquake, and demonstrate that Landers triggering did not reflect some peculiarity of the region or the earthquake. However, the rate increases triggered by the Denali earthquake occurred in areas not obviously tectonically active, implying that even in areas of low ambient stressing rates, faults may still be critically stressed and that dynamic triggering may be ubiquitous and unpredictable.