Crustal deformation rates in Kashmir valley and adjoining regions from continuous GPS measurements from 2008 to 2019

We present GPS velocities in Kashmir valley and adjoining regions from continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) network during 2008 to 2019. Results indicate total arc normal shortening rates of ~ 14 mm/year across this transect of Himalaya that is comparable to the rates of ~ 10 to 20 mm/year reported else-where in the 2500 km Himalaya Arc. For the first time in Himalayas, arc-parallel extension rate of ~ 7 mm/year was recorded in the Kashmir valley, pointing to oblique deformation. Inverse modeling of the contemporary deformation rates in Kashmir valley indicate oblique slip of ~ 16 mm/year along the decollement with locking depth of ~ 15 km and width of ~ 145 km. This result is consistent with the recorded micro-seismicity and low velocity layer at a depth of 12 to 16 km beneath the Kashmir valley obtained from collocated broadband seismic network. Geodetic strain rates are consistent with the dislocation model and micro-seismic activity, with high strain accumulation (~ 7e−08 maximum compression) to the north of Kashmir valley and south of Zanskar ranges. Assuming the stored energy was fully released during 1555 earthquake, high geodetic strain rate since then and observed micro-seismicity point to probable future large earthquakes of Mw ~ 7.7 in Kashmir seismic gap.

India plate angular velocity and contemporary deformation rates from continuous GPS measurements from 1996 to 2015

We estimate a new angular velocity for the India plate and contemporary deformation rates in the plate interior and along its seismically active margins from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements from 1996 to 2015 at 70 continuous and 3 episodic stations. A new India-ITRF2008 angular velocity is estimated from 30 GPS sites, which include stations from western and eastern regions of the plate interior that were unrepresented or only sparsely sampled in previous studies. Our newly estimated India-ITRF2008 Euler pole is located significantly closer to the plate with ~3% higher angular velocity than all previous estimates and thus predicts more rapid variations in rates and directions along the plate boundaries. The 30 India plate GPS site velocities are well fit by the new angular velocity, with north and east RMS misfits of only 0.8 and 0.9 mm/yr, respectively. India fixed velocities suggest an approximate of 1–2 mm/yr intra-plate deformation that might be concentrated along regional dislocations, faults in Peninsular India, Kachchh and Indo-Gangetic plain. Relative to our newly-defined India plate frame of reference, the newly estimated velocities for 43 other GPS sites along the plate margins give insights into active deformation along India’s seismically active northern and eastern boundaries.

Seasonal Hydrological Loading in Southern Tibet Detected by Joint Analysis of GPS and GRACE

In southern Tibet, ongoing vertical and horizontal motions due to the collision between India and Eurasia are monitored by large numbers of global positioning system (GPS) continuous and campaign sites installed in the past decade. Displacements measured by GPS usually include tectonic deformation as well as non-tectonic, time-dependent signals. To estimate the regional long-term tectonic deformation using GPS more precisely, seasonal elastic deformation signals associated with surface loading must be removed from the observations. In this study, we focus on seasonal variation in vertical and horizontal motions of southern Tibet by performing a joint analysis of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and GPS data, not only using continuous sites but also GPS campaign-mode sites. We found that the GPS-observed and GRACE-modeled seasonal oscillations are in good agreements, and a seasonal displacement model demonstrates that the main reason for seasonal variations in southern Tibet is from the summer monsoon and its precipitation. The biggest loading appears from July to August in the summer season. Vertical deformations observed by GPS and modeled by GRACE are two to three times larger than horizontal oscillations, and the north components demonstrate larger amplitudes than the east components. We corrected the GPS position time series using the GRACE-modeled seasonal variations, which gives significant reductions in the misfit and weighted root-mean-squares (WRMS). Misfit (χ2 divided by degree of freedom) reductions for campaign sites range between 20% and 56% for the vertical component, and are much smaller for the horizontal components. Moreover, time series of continuous GPS (cGPS) sites near the 2015 Nepal earthquakes must be corrected using appropriate models of seasonal loading for analyzing postseismic deformation to avoid biasing estimates of the postseismic relaxation.

Landscape development of the Himalayan–Tibetan orogen: a review

The Himalayan–Tibetan orogen provides one of the best natural laboratories in which to examine the nature and dynamics of landscape development within continent–continent collision zones. Many new tectonic–climatic–geomorphological theories and models have emerged and/or have been greatly influenced as a consequence of the study of the region and the quest to understand its geomorphological development. These include models of the interactions between tectonics, climate and surfice processes, notably, the influence of climate on surface uplift by denudational unloading; the limiting of topography by glaciation (the glacial buzz-saw model); localized uplift at syntaxes by enhanced fluvial and glacial erosion that, in turn, weaken the lithosphere, enhancing surface uplift and exhumation (the tectonic aneurysm model); climate-driven out-of-sequence thrusting and crustal channel flow; glacial damming leading to differential erosion and uplift; paraglaciation; and the influence of extreme events such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods as major formative processes. The development of new technologies, including satellite remote sensing and global positioning systems, and analytical methods such as numerical dating is now allowing these theories and models to be tested and will inevitably lead to new paradigms.

Great Himalayan earthquakes and the Tibetan plateau

It has been assumed that Himalayan earthquakes are driven by the release of compressional strain accumulating close to the Greater Himalaya. However, elastic models of the Indo-Asian collision using recently imaged subsurface interface geometries suggest that a substantial fraction of the southernmost 500 kilometres of the Tibetan plateau participates in driving great ruptures. We show here that this Tibetan reservoir of elastic strain energy is drained in proportion to Himalayan rupture length, and that the consequent growth of slip and magnitude with rupture area, when compared to data from recent earthquakes, can be used to infer a approximately 500-year renewal time for these events. The elastic models also illuminate two puzzling features of plate boundary seismicity: how great earthquakes can re-rupture regions that have already ruptured in recent smaller earthquakes and how mega-earthquakes with greater than 20 metres slip may occur at millennia-long intervals, driven by residual strain following many centuries of smaller earthquakes.