A Near-Real-Time Method for Estimating Volcanic Ash Emissions Using Satellite Retrievals

We present a Bayesian inversion method for estimating volcanic ash emissions using satellite retrievals of ash column load and an atmospheric dispersion model. An a priori description of the emissions is used based on observations of the rise height of the volcanic plume and a stochastic model of the possible emissions. Satellite data are processed to give column loads where ash is detected and to give information on where we have high confidence that there is negligible ash. An atmospheric dispersion model is used to relate emissions and column loads. Gaussian distributions are assumed for the a priori emissions and for the errors in the satellite retrievals. The optimal emissions estimate is obtained by finding the peak of the a posteriori probability density under the constraint that the emissions are non-negative. We apply this inversion method within a framework designed for use during an eruption with the emission estimates (for any given emission time) being revised over time as more information becomes available. We demonstrate the approach for the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grímsvötn eruptions. We apply the approach in two ways, using only the ash retrievals and using both the ash and clear sky retrievals. For Eyjafjallajökull we have compared with an independent dataset not used in the inversion and have found that the inversion-derived emissions lead to improved predictions.

Black Carbon Emission Reduction Due to COVID-19 Lockdown in China

During the Lunar New Year Holiday of 2020, China implemented an unprecedented lockdown to fight the COVID-19 outbreak, which strongly affected the anthropogenic emissions. We utilized elemental carbon observations (equivalent to black carbon, BC) from 42 sites and performed inverse modeling to determine the impact of the lockdown on the weekly BC emissions and quantify the effect of the stagnant conditions on BC observations in densely populated eastern and northern China. BC emissions declined 70% (eastern China) and 48% (northern China) compared to the first half of January. In northern China, under the stagnant conditions of the first week of the lockdown, the observed BC concentrations rose unexpectedly (29%) even though the BC emissions fell. The emissions declined substantially thereafter until a week after the lockdown ended. On the contrary, in eastern China, BC emissions dropped sharply in the first week and recovered synchronously with the end of the lockdown.

Methane Emission Estimates by the Global High-Resolution Inverse Model Using National Inventories

We present a global 0.1° × 0.1° high-resolution inverse model, NIES-TM-FLEXPART-VAR (NTFVAR), and a methane emission evaluation using the Greenhouse Gas Observing Satellite (GOSAT) satellite and ground-based observations from 2010–2012. Prior fluxes contained two variants of anthropogenic emissions, Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) v4.3.2 and adjusted EDGAR v4.3.2 which were scaled to match the country totals by national reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), augmented by biomass burning emissions from Global Fire Assimilation System (GFASv1.2) and wetlands Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace Gases (VISIT). The ratio of the UNFCCC-adjusted global anthropogenic emissions to EDGAR is 98%. This varies by region: 200% in Russia, 84% in China, and 62% in India. By changing prior emissions from EDGAR to UNFCCC-adjusted values, the optimized total emissions increased from 36.2 to 46 Tg CH4 yr−1 for Russia, 12.8 to 14.3 Tg CH4 yr−1 for temperate South America, and 43.2 to 44.9 Tg CH4 yr−1 for contiguous USA, and the values decrease from 54 to 51.3 Tg CH4 yr−1 for China, 26.2 to 25.5 Tg CH4 yr−1 for Europe, and by 12.4 Tg CH4 yr−1 for India. The use of the national report to scale EDGAR emissions allows more detailed statistical data and country-specific emission factors to be gathered in place compared to those available for EDGAR inventory. This serves policy needs by evaluating the national or regional emission totals reported to the UNFCCC.

A regional data assimilation system for estimating CO surface flux from atmospheric mixing ratio observations-a case study of Xuzhou, China

Carbon monoxide (CO) emission inventory data are crucial for air quality control. However, the emission inventories are labor-intensive and time-consuming and generally have large uncertainties. In this study, we developed a new regional data assimilation system (TracersTracker) for estimating the surface CO emission flux from continuous mixing ratio observations using the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD)-based four-dimensional variational (4D-VAR) data assimilation method (POD-4DVar) and a coupled regional model (Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with the Models-3 Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model). This system was applied to estimate CO emissions in Xuzhou city, China. An experiment was conducted with the continuous hourly surface CO mixing ratio observations from 21 monitoring towers in January and July of 2016. The experimental results of the system were examined and compared with the continuous surface CO observations (a priori emission). We found that the retrieved CO emission fluxes were higher than the a priori emission and were mainly distributed in urban and industrial areas, which were 104% higher in January (winter) and 44% higher in July (summer).

Continued emissions of carbon tetrachloride from the United States nearly two decades after its phaseout for dispersive uses

National-scale emissions of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) are derived based on inverse modeling of atmospheric observations at multiple sites across the United States from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's flask air sampling network. We estimate an annual average US emission of 4.0 (2.0-6.5) Gg CCl4 y(-1) during 2008-2012, which is almost two orders of magnitude larger than reported to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) (mean of 0.06 Gg y(-1)) but only 8% (3-22%) of global CCl4 emissions during these years. Emissive regions identified by the observations and consistently shown in all inversion results include the Gulf Coast states, the San Francisco Bay Area in California, and the Denver area in Colorado. Both the observation-derived emissions and the US EPA TRI identified Texas and Louisiana as the largest contributors, accounting for one- to two-thirds of the US national total CCl4 emission during 2008-2012. These results are qualitatively consistent with multiple aircraft and ship surveys conducted in earlier years, which suggested significant enhancements in atmospheric mole fractions measured near Houston and surrounding areas. Furthermore, the emission distribution derived for CCl4 throughout the United States is more consistent with the distribution of industrial activities included in the TRI than with the distribution of other potential CCl4 sources such as uncapped landfills or activities related to population density (e.g., use of chlorine-containing bleach).

UK emissions of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide

Signatories of the Kyoto Protocol are obliged to submit annual accounts of their anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, which include nitrous oxide (N(2)O). Emissions from the sectors industry (3.8 Gg), energy (14.4 Gg), agriculture (86.8 Gg), wastewater (4.4 Gg), land use, land-use change and forestry (2.1 Gg) can be calculated by multiplying activity data (i.e. amount of fertilizer applied, animal numbers) with simple emission factors (Tier 1 approach), which are generally applied across wide geographical regions. The agricultural sector is the largest anthropogenic source of N(2)O in many countries and responsible for 75 per cent of UK N(2)O emissions. Microbial N(2)O production in nitrogen-fertilized soils (27.6 Gg), nitrogen-enriched waters (24.2 Gg) and manure storage systems (6.4 Gg) dominate agricultural emission budgets. For the agricultural sector, the Tier 1 emission factor approach is too simplistic to reflect local variations in climate, ecosystems and management, and is unable to take into account some of the mitigation strategies applied. This paper reviews deviations of observed emissions from those calculated using the simple emission factor approach for all anthropogenic sectors, briefly discusses the need to adopt specific emission factors that reflect regional variability in climate, soil type and management, and explains how bottom-up emission inventories can be verified by top-down modelling.

European emissions of halogenated greenhouse gases inferred from atmospheric measurements

European emissions of nine representative halocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, Halon 1211, HCFC-141b, HCFC-142b, HCFC-22, HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-152a) are derived for the year 2009 by combining long-term observations in Switzerland, Italy, and Ireland with campaign measurements from Hungary. For the first time, halocarbon emissions over Eastern Europe are assessed by top-down methods, and these results are compared to Western European emissions. The employed inversion method builds on least-squares optimization linking atmospheric observations with calculations from the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. The aggregated halocarbon emissions over the study area are estimated at 125 (106-150) Tg of CO(2) equiv/y, of which the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) make up the most important fraction with 41% (31-52%). We find that chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions from banks are still significant and account for 35% (27-43%) of total halocarbon emissions in Europe. The regional differences in per capita emissions are only small for the HFCs, while emissions of CFCs and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) tend to be higher in Western Europe compared to Eastern Europe. In total, the inferred per capita emissions are similar to estimates for China, but 3.5 (2.3-4.5) times lower than for the United States. Our study demonstrates the large benefits of adding a strategically well placed measurement site to the existing European observation network of halocarbons, as it extends the coverage of the inversion domain toward Eastern Europe and helps to better constrain the emissions over Central Europe.

Quantifying greenhouse-gas emissions from atmospheric measurements: a critical reality check for climate legislation

Emissions reduction legislation relies upon 'bottom-up' accounting of industrial and biogenic greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions at their sources. Yet, even for relatively well-constrained industrial GHGs, global emissions based on 'top-down' methods that use atmospheric measurements often agree poorly with the reported bottom-up emissions. For emissions reduction legislation to be effective, it is essential that these discrepancies be resolved. Because emissions are regulated nationally or regionally, not globally, top-down estimates must also be determined at these scales. High-frequency atmospheric GHG measurements at well-chosen station locations record 'pollution events' above the background values that result from regional emissions. By combining such measurements with inverse methods and atmospheric transport and chemistry models, it is possible to map and quantify regional emissions. Even with the sparse current network of measurement stations and current inverse-modelling techniques, it is possible to rival the accuracies of regional 'bottom-up' emission estimates for some GHGs. But meeting the verification goals of emissions reduction legislation will require major increases in the density and types of atmospheric observations, as well as expanded inverse-modelling capabilities. The cost of this effort would be minor when compared with current investments in carbon-equivalent trading, and would reduce the volatility of that market and increase investment in emissions reduction.

The challenge of estimating regional trace gas emissions from atmospheric observations

This paper discusses some of the major issues that surround estimating regional emissions of trace gases from atmospheric observations through inversion modelling. Inversion methods use modelled knowledge of how emissions dilute in the atmosphere as they travel from their source to an observation point, together with the observations, to calculate a grid of emissions. The problem is one of minimizing the mismatch between a modelled and observed time series of concentration. There are many methods of comparing time series, some involving a priori knowledge others without. The location, terrain and height of the observation station can also be very significant in determining how well a model can represent the dilution from emission source to receptor. The inversion solution (emission map) will assign some of the sources incorrectly for a variety of reasons, e.g. local sources, intermittent releases, errors in the modelled transport or observation, and the choice of the spatial and temporal resolution of the emission map. The reasons for uncertainty in the modelled emissions are discussed along with suggestions as to how some of these can be minimized. Using multiple stations to further constrain the inversion should reduce the uncertainty; however, care is needed if the potential improvements are to be realized.

Exposure to concentrated ambient particles does not affect vascular function in patients with coronary heart disease

BACKGROUND

Exposure to fine particulate air pollution is associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We previously demonstrated that exposure to dilute diesel exhaust causes vascular dysfunction in humans.

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a study to determine whether exposure to ambient particulate matter causes vascular dysfunction.

METHODS

Twelve male patients with stable coronary heart disease and 12 age-matched volunteers were exposed to concentrated ambient fine and ultrafine particles (CAPs) or filtered air for 2 hr using a randomized, double-blind cross-over study design. We measured peripheral vascular vasomotor and fibrinolytic function, and inflammatory variables-including circulating leukocytes, serum C-reactive protein, and exhaled breath 8-isoprostane and nitrotyrosine-6-8 hr after both exposures.

RESULTS

Particulate concentrations (mean +/- SE) in the exposure chamber (190+/-37 microg/m(3)) were higher than ambient levels (31+/-8 microg/m(3)) and levels in filtered air (0.5+/-0.4 microg/m(3); p<0.001). Chemical analysis of CAPs identified low levels of elemental carbon. Exhaled breath 8-isoprostane concentrations increased after exposure to CAPs (16.9+/-8.5 vs. 4.9+/-1.2 pg/mL, p<0.05), but markers of systemic inflammation were largely unchanged. Although there was a dose-dependent increase in blood flow and plasma tissue plasminogen activator release (p<0.001 for all), CAPs exposure had no effect on vascular function in either group.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite achieving marked increases in particulate matter, exposure to CAPs--low in combustion-derived particles--did not affect vasomotor or fibrinolytic function in either middle-aged healthy volunteers or patients with coronary heart disease. These findings contrast with previous exposures to dilute diesel exhaust and highlight the importance of particle composition in determining the vascular effects of particulate matter in humans.

Observations of long-lived anthropogenic halocarbons at the high-Alpine site of Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) for assessment of trends and European sources

Anthropogenic halocarbons, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), bromocarbons (halons) and long-lived chlorinated solvents have been measured continuously at the high-Alpine site of Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) since January 2000. Chloro- and bromo-containing halocarbons are responsible for the stratospheric ozone depletion and will be globally banned from usage within the next years. With the exception of the stable CFC-12 (CF2 Cl2), all major CFCs and chlorinated solvents show a negative trend in recent years in their background concentrations at Jungfraujoch. HCFCs, as their first-generation substitute, are still increasing with a few percent per year. However, the frequency and the strength of HCFCs pollution events, which are caused by regional European emissions, are already declining. This can be seen as a sign of the impending ban of these gases within the next years in Europe. On the other hand, HFCs as the second-generation substitutes, are increasing with relative rates of at least 10% per year (e.g. almost 5 ppt per year for HFC-134a). An allocation of European sources was attempted by combining measured concentrations with trajectories of air masses reaching the Jungfraujoch during pollution events. Potential source regions could be detected in Italy, France, Spain and Germany.

A single-particle characterization of a mobile Versatile Aerosol Concentration Enrichment System for exposure studies

BACKGROUND

An Aerosol Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (ATOFMS) was used to investigate the size and chemical composition of fine concentrated ambient particles (CAPs) in the size range 0.2-2.6 microm produced by a Versatile Aerosol Concentration Enrichment System (VACES) contained within the Mobile Ambient Particle Concentrator Exposure Laboratory (MAPCEL). The data were collected during a study of human exposure to CAPs, in Edinburgh (UK), in February-March 2004. The air flow prior to, and post, concentration in the VACES was sampled in turn into the ATOFMS, which provides simultaneous size and positive and negative mass spectral data on individual fine particles.

RESULTS

The particle size distribution was unaltered by the concentrator over the size range 0.2-2.6 microm, with an average enrichment factor during this study of approximately 5 (after dilution of the final air stream). The mass spectra from single particles were objectively grouped into 20 clusters using the multivariate K-means algorithm and then further grouped manually, according to similarity in composition and time sequence, into 8 main clusters. The particle ensemble was dominated by pure and reacted sea salt and other coarse inorganic dusts (as a consequence of the prevailing maritime-source climatology during the study), with relatively minor contributions from carbonaceous and secondary material. Very minor variations in particle composition were noted pre- and post-particle concentration, but overall there was no evidence of any significant change in particle composition.

CONCLUSION

These results confirm, via single particle analysis, the preservation of the size distribution and chemical composition of fine ambient PM in the size range 0.2-2.6 microm after passage through the VACES concentration instrumentation.

Low European methyl chloroform emissions inferred from long-term atmospheric measurements

Methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3, 1,1,1,-trichloroethane) was used widely as a solvent before it was recognized to be an ozone-depleting substance and its phase-out was introduced under the Montreal Protocol. Subsequently, its atmospheric concentration has declined steadily and recent European methyl chloroform consumption and emissions were estimated to be less than 0.1 gigagrams per year. However, data from a short-term tropospheric measurement campaign (EXPORT) indicated that European methyl chloroform emissions could have been over 20 gigagrams in 2000 (ref. 6), almost doubling previously estimated global emissions. Such enhanced emissions would significantly affect results from the CH3CC13 method of deriving global abundances of hydroxyl radicals (OH) (refs 7-12)-the dominant reactive atmospheric chemical for removing trace gases related to air pollution, ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. Here we use long-term, high-frequency data from Mace Head, Ireland and Jungfraujoch, Switzerland, to infer European methyl chloroform emissions. We find that European emission estimates declined from about 60 gigagrams per year in the mid-1990s to 0.3-1.4 and 1.9-3.4 gigagrams per year in 2000-03, based on Mace Head and Jungfraujoch data, respectively. Our European methyl chloroform emission estimates are therefore higher than calculated from consumption data, but are considerably lower than those derived from the EXPORT campaign in 2000 (ref. 6).