Early life history responses and phenotypic shifts in a rare endemic plant responding to climate change

Changes in species ranges are anticipated with climate change, where in alpine settings, fragmentation and contraction are likely. This is especially true in high altitude biodiversity hotspots, where warmer growing seasons and increased drought events may negatively impact populations by limiting regeneration. Here, we test for high-altitude species responses to the interactive effects of warming and drought in Heterotheca brandegeei, a perennial cushion plant endemic to alpine outcroppings in Sierra de San Pedro Mártir National Park, Baja California, México. We exposed H. brandegeei seedlings to experimental warming and drought conditions to document early life history responses and the species ability to tolerate climate change. Drought negatively influenced seedling growth, with overall reductions in above- and belowground biomass. Warming and drought each led to substantial reductions in leaf development. At the same time, individuals maintained high specific leaf area and carbon investment in leaves across treatments, suggesting that existing phenotypic variation within populations may be high enough to withstand climate change. However, warming and drought interacted to negatively influence leaf-level water-use efficiency (WUE). Seedling mortality rates were nearly three times higher in warming and drought treatments, suggesting bleak prospects for H. brandegeei populations in future climate conditions. Overall, our results suggest H. brandegeei populations may experience substantial declines under future warmer and drier conditions. Some individuals may be able to establish, albeit, as smaller, more stressed plants. These results further suggest that warming alone may not be as consequential to populations as drought will be in this already water-limited system.

Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change

We find that extreme temperature and precipitation events are likely to respond substantially to anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse forcing and that fine-scale climate system modifiers are likely to play a critical role in the net response. At present, such events impact a wide variety of natural and human systems, and future changes in their frequency and/or magnitude could have dramatic ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. Our results indicate that fine-scale snow albedo effects influence the response of both hot and cold events and that peak increases in extreme hot events are amplified by surface moisture feedbacks. Likewise, we find that extreme precipitation is enhanced on the lee side of rain shadows and over coastal areas dominated by convective precipitation. We project substantial, spatially heterogeneous increases in both hot and wet events over the contiguous United States by the end of the next century, suggesting that consideration of fine-scale processes is critical for accurate assessment of local- and regional-scale vulnerability to climate change.

Plutonium from global fallout recorded in an ice core from the Belukha glacier, Siberian Altai

Ice cores from glaciers situated near anthropogenic sources of air pollution provide important archives of the emissions of species with short atmospheric lifetimes. Here we present the history of atmospheric Pu fallout reconstructed from an ice core from the Belukha glacier in the Siberian Altai. Fourteen ice core samples covering the time period 1941-1986 were selected for Pu analysis, chemically processed, and measured using accelerator mass spectrometry. The Pu concentration peaks in 1963, coinciding with the maximum of the nuclear weapons tests and in concordance with the 3H activity concentration peak. The shapes of the 239Pu and 3H profiles reflect two main periods of atmospheric nuclear test activity: premoratorium testing before 1958 and postmoratorium testing in 1961 and 1962. Premoratorium tests contribute about 45% of the integrated Pu inventory. The average 240Pu/239Pu isotopic ratio is 0.18 +/- 0.05, indicating that a large majority of the Pu in the Belukha glacier originates from global stratospheric fallout rather than from direct tropospheric input.