Coupling free radical catalysis, climate change, and human health

We present the chain of mechanisms linking free radical catalytic loss of stratospheric ozone, specifically over the central United States in summer, to increased climate forcing by CO2 and CH4 from fossil fuel use. This case directly engages detailed knowledge, emerging from in situ aircraft observations over the polar regions in winter, defining the temperature and water vapor dependence of the kinetics of heterogeneous catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine (HCl and ClONO2) to free radical form (ClO). Analysis is placed in the context of irreversible changes to specific subsystems of the climate, most notably coupled feedbacks that link rapid changes in the Arctic with the discovery that convective storms over the central US in summer both suppress temperatures and inject water vapor deep into the stratosphere. This places the lower stratosphere over the US in summer within the same photochemical catalytic domain as the lower stratosphere of the Arctic in winter engaging the risk of amplifying the rate limiting step in the ClO dimer catalytic mechanism by some six orders of magnitude. This transitions the catalytic loss rate of ozone in lower stratosphere over the United States in summer from HOx radical control to ClOx radical control, increasing the overall ozone loss rate by some two orders of magnitude over that of the unperturbed state. Thus we address, through a combination of observations and modeling, the mechanistic foundation defining why stratospheric ozone, vulnerable to increased climate forcing, is one of the most delicate aspects of habitability on the planet.

Stratospheric ozone over the United States in summer linked to observations of convection and temperature via chlorine and bromine catalysis

We present observations defining (i) the frequency and depth of convective penetration of water into the stratosphere over the United States in summer using the Next-Generation Radar system; (ii) the altitude-dependent distribution of inorganic chlorine established in the same coordinate system as the radar observations; (iii) the high resolution temperature structure in the stratosphere over the United States in summer that resolves spatial and structural variability, including the impact of gravity waves; and (iv) the resulting amplification in the catalytic loss rates of ozone for the dominant halogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen catalytic cycles. The weather radar observations of ∼2,000 storms, on average, each summer that reach the altitude of rapidly increasing available inorganic chlorine, coupled with observed temperatures, portend a risk of initiating rapid heterogeneous catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine to free radical form on ubiquitous sulfate-water aerosols; this, in turn, engages the element of risk associated with ozone loss in the stratosphere over the central United States in summer based upon the same reaction network that reduces stratospheric ozone over the Arctic. The summertime development of the upper-level anticyclonic flow over the United States, driven by the North American Monsoon, provides a means of retaining convectively injected water, thereby extending the time for catalytic ozone loss over the Great Plains. Trusted decadal forecasts of UV dosage over the United States in summer require understanding the response of this dynamical and photochemical system to increased forcing of the climate by increasing levels of CO2 and CH4.

The search for signs of recovery of the ozone layer

Evidence of mid-latitude ozone depletion and proof that the Antarctic ozone hole was caused by humans spurred policy makers from the late 1980s onwards to ratify the Montreal Protocol and subsequent treaties, legislating for reduced production of ozone-depleting substances. The case of anthropogenic ozone loss has often been cited since as a success story of international agreements in the regulation of environmental pollution. Although recent data suggest that total column ozone abundances have at least not decreased over the past eight years for most of the world, it is still uncertain whether this improvement is actually attributable to the observed decline in the amount of ozone-depleting substances in the Earth's atmosphere. The high natural variability in ozone abundances, due in part to the solar cycle as well as changes in transport and temperature, could override the relatively small changes expected from the recent decrease in ozone-depleting substances. Whatever the benefits of the Montreal agreement, recovery of ozone is likely to occur in a different atmospheric environment, with changes expected in atmospheric transport, temperature and important trace gases. It is therefore unlikely that ozone will stabilize at levels observed before 1980, when a decline in ozone concentrations was first observed.

SAOZ measurements of NO2 at Aberystwyth

We present in this paper fifteen years' measurements, from March 1991 to September 2005, of stratospheric NO2 vertical columns measured by a SAOZ zenith-sky visible spectrometer. The instrument spent most of its time at Aberystwyth, Wales, with occasional excursions to other locations. The data have been analysed with the WinDOAS analysis program with low-temperature high-resolution NO2 cross-sections and fitting a slit function to each spectrum. Because of a change in detector in May 1998 there is some uncertainty about the relative changes before and after this date, which are partially constrained by the results of an intercomparison exercise. However, the effect of the Mt Pinatubo aerosol cloud is very evident in the data from 1991-94, with a decrease of 10% in NO2 in the summer of 1992 (the SAOZ was located in Lerwick, Scotland during the winter of 1991-92 and observed very low NO2 values but these cannot be directly compared to the Aberystwyth data). To focus more on interannual and long-term variations in NO2, a seasonal variation comprising an annual and semi-annual component was fitted to the morning and evening twilight separately from 1995 to the present. This fit yielded average NO2 columns of 4.08 x 10(15) cm(-2) and 2.68 x 10(15) cm(-2) for the evening and morning twilight, respectively, with a corresponding annual amplitude of +/-2.08 x 10(15) cm(-2) and +/-1.50 x 10(15) cm(-2). Departures from the fitted curve show a trend of 6% per decade, consistent with that reported elsewhere, for the period 1998-2003, but in the past two years a distinct interannual variation of amplitude of approximately 8% has emerged.