Unexpected major geomagnetic storm caused by faint eruption of a solar trans-equatorial flux rope

Some geomagnetic storms' solar origins are ambiguous, making them hard to predict. On March 23, 2023, a severe geomagnetic storm occurred, however, forecasts based on remote-sensing observations failed to predict it. Here, we show clear evidence that this storm originates from the eruption of a trans-equatorial, longitudinal and low-density magnetic flux rope (FR) with weaker coronal emission and no chromospheric signs. The FR's gentle eruption results in a faint full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME), which is missed by forecasters and not included in CME catalogs. Combining magnetic field modeling and in-situ measurements, we reveal the FR's southward axial magnetic field as the main cause of the geomagnetic storm. This CME is the stealthiest one reported causing a severe geomagnetic storm. Our study highlights that erupting trans-equatorial FRs can generate major geomagnetic storms in a stealthy way. Characteristic observational signatures of similar eruptions are proposed to help in future forecasts.

Earth-affecting solar transients: a review of progresses in solar cycle 24

This review article summarizes the advancement in the studies of Earth-affecting solar transients in the last decade that encompasses most of solar cycle 24. It is a part of the effort of the International Study of Earth-affecting Solar Transients (ISEST) project, sponsored by the SCOSTEP/VarSITI program (2014-2018). The Sun-Earth is an integrated physical system in which the space environment of the Earth sustains continuous influence from mass, magnetic field, and radiation energy output of the Sun in varying timescales from minutes to millennium. This article addresses short timescale events, from minutes to days that directly cause transient disturbances in the Earth's space environment and generate intense adverse effects on advanced technological systems of human society. Such transient events largely fall into the following four types: (1) solar flares, (2) coronal mass ejections (CMEs) including their interplanetary counterparts ICMEs, (3) solar energetic particle (SEP) events, and (4) stream interaction regions (SIRs) including corotating interaction regions (CIRs). In the last decade, the unprecedented multi-viewpoint observations of the Sun from space, enabled by STEREO Ahead/Behind spacecraft in combination with a suite of observatories along the Sun-Earth lines, have provided much more accurate and global measurements of the size, speed, propagation direction, and morphology of CMEs in both 3D and over a large volume in the heliosphere. Many CMEs, fast ones, in particular, can be clearly characterized as a two-front (shock front plus ejecta front) and three-part (bright ejecta front, dark cavity, and bright core) structure. Drag-based kinematic models of CMEs are developed to interpret CME propagation in the heliosphere and are applied to predict their arrival times at 1 AU in an efficient manner. Several advanced MHD models have been developed to simulate realistic CME events from the initiation on the Sun until their arrival at 1 AU. Much progress has been made on detailed kinematic and dynamic behaviors of CMEs, including non-radial motion, rotation and deformation of CMEs, CME-CME interaction, and stealth CMEs and problematic ICMEs. The knowledge about SEPs has also been significantly improved. An outlook of how to address critical issues related to Earth-affecting solar transients concludes this article.

Assessing the Performance of GPS Precise Point Positioning Under Different Geomagnetic Storm Conditions during Solar Cycle 24

The geomagnetic storm, which is an abnormal space weather phenomenon, can sometimes severely affect GPS signal propagation, thereby impacting the performance of GPS precise point positioning (PPP). However, the investigation of GPS PPP accuracy over the global scale under different geomagnetic storm conditions is very limited. This paper for the first time presents the performance of GPS dual-frequency (DF) and single-frequency (SF) PPP under moderate, intense, and super storms conditions during solar cycle 24 using a large data set collected from about 500 international GNSS services (IGS) stations. The global root mean square (RMS) maps of GPS PPP results show that stations with degraded performance are mainly distributed at high-latitude, and the degradation level generally depends on the storm intensity. The three-dimensional (3D) RMS of GPS DF PPP for high-latitude during moderate, intense, and super storms are 0.393 m, 0.680 m and 1.051 m, respectively, with respect to only 0.163 m on quiet day. RMS errors of mid- and low-latitudes show less dependence on the storm intensities, with values less than 0.320 m, compared to 0.153 m on quiet day. Compared with DF PPP, the performance of GPS SF PPP is inferior regardless of quiet or disturbed conditions. The degraded performance of GPS positioning during geomagnetic storms is attributed to the increased ionospheric disturbances, which have been confirmed by our global rate of TEC index (ROTI) maps. Ionospheric disturbances not only lead to the deteriorated ionospheric correction but also to the frequent cycle-slip occurrence. Statistical results show that, compared with that on quiet day, the increased cycle-slip occurrence are 13.04%, 56.52%, and 69.57% under moderate, intense, and super storms conditions, respectively.

SUN-TO-EARTH MHD SIMULATION OF THE 14 JULY 2000 "BASTILLE DAY" ERUPTION

Solar eruptions are the main driver of space-weather disturbances at the Earth. Extreme events are of particular interest, not only because of the scientific challenges they pose, but also because of their possible societal consequences. Here we present a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the 14 July 2000 "Bastille Day" eruption, which produced a very strong geomagnetic storm. After constructing a "thermodynamic" MHD model of the corona and solar wind, we insert a magnetically stable flux rope along the polarity inversion line of the eruption's source region and initiate the eruption by boundary flows. More than 10³³ ergs of magnetic energy are released in the eruption within a few minutes, driving a flare, an EUV wave, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) that travels in the outer corona at ≈1500 km s^-1, close to the observed speed. We then propagate the CME to Earth, using a heliospheric MHD code. Our simulation thus provides the opportunity to test how well in situ observations of extreme events are matched if the eruption is initiated from a stable magnetic-equilibrium state. We find that the flux-rope center is very similar in character to the observed magnetic cloud, but arrives ≈8.5 hours later and ≈15° too far to the North, with field strengths that are too weak by a factor of ≈1.6. The front of the flux rope is highly distorted, exhibiting localized magnetic-field concentrations as it passes 1 AU. We discuss these properties with regard to the development of space-weather predictions based on MHD simulations of solar eruptions.

Two-step forecast of geomagnetic storm using coronal mass ejection and solar wind condition

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz  ≤ -5 nT or Ey  ≥ 3 mV/m for t≥ 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than -50 nT) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90%) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87%). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88%), while the former correctly forecasts only 71% of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80%) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (∩), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81%) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (∪), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted.