Change of deep subduction seismicity after a large megathrust earthquake

Subduction zones are home to the world's largest and deepest earthquakes. Recently, large-scale interactions between shallow (0-60 km) and intermediate (80-150 km) seismicity have been evidenced during the interseismic period but also before and after megathrust earthquakes along with large-scale changes in surface motion. Large-scale deformation transients following major earthquakes have also been observed possibly due to a post-seismic change in slab pull or to a bending/unbending of the plates, which suggests the existence of interactions between the deep and shallow parts of the slab. In this study, we analyze the spatio-temporal variations of the declustered seismicity in Japan from 2000 to 2011/3/11 and from 2011/3/11 to 2013/3/11. We observe that the background rate of the intermediate to deep (150-450 km) seismicity underwent a deceleration of 55% south of the rupture zone and an acceleration of 30% north of it after the Tohoku-oki earthquake, consistent with the GPS surface displacements. This shows how a megathrust earthquake can affect the stress state of the slab over a 2500 km lateral range and a large depth range, demonstrating that earthquakes interact at a much greater scale than the surrounding rupture zone usually considered.

Magmatic connectivity among six Galápagos volcanoes revealed by satellite geodesy

Shallow magmatic reservoirs that produce measurable volcanic surface deformation are often considered as discrete independent systems. However, petrological analyses of erupted products suggest that these may be the shallowest expression of extensive, heterogeneous magmatic systems that we show may be interconnected. We analyse time series of satellite-radar-measured displacements at Western Galápagos volcanoes from 2017 to 2022 and revisit historical displacements. We demonstrate that these volcanoes consistently experience correlated displacements during periods of heightened magma supply to the shallow crust. We rule out changes in static stress, shallow hydraulic connections, and data processing and analysis artefacts. We propose that episodic surges of magma into interconnected magmatic systems affect neighbouring volcanoes, simultaneously causing correlations in volcanic uplift and subsidence. While expected to occur globally, such processes are uniquely observable at the dense cluster of Western Galápagos volcanoes, thanks to the high rate of surface displacements and the wealth of geodetic measurements.

Rapid shallow megathrust afterslip from the 2021 M8.2 Chignik, Alaska earthquake revealed by seafloor geodesy

The shallower portions of subduction zone megathrust faults host Earth's most hazardous tsunamigenic earthquakes, yet understanding how and when they slip remains elusive because of challenges making seafloor observations. We performed Global Navigation Satellite System Acoustic seafloor geodetic surveys before and ~2.5 months after the 29 July 2021 Mw (moment magnitude) 8.2 Chignik, Alaska, earthquake and determine ~1.4 meters cumulative co- and post-seismic horizontal displacement ~60 kilometers from the megathrust front. Only for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku event have closer subduction zone earthquake displacements been observed. We estimate ~2 to 3 meters of megathrust afterslip shallower than 20 kilometers, a portion of the megathrust on which both inter- and co-seismic slip likely had occurred previously. Our analysis demonstrates that by 2.5 months, shallower and deeper moment had effectively equilibrated on the megathrust, suggesting that its tsunamigenic potential remains no more elevated than before the earthquake.

Monitoring Seismic Velocity Changes Across the San Jacinto Fault Using Train-Generated Seismic Tremors

Microseismic noise has been used for seismic velocity monitoring. However, such signals are dominated by low-frequency surface waves that are not ideal for detecting changes associated with small tectonic processes. Here we show that it is possible to extract stable, high-frequency body waves using seismic tremors generated by freight trains. Such body waves allow us to focus on small velocity perturbations in the crust with high spatial resolution. We report on 10 years of seismic velocity temporal changes at the San Jacinto Fault. We observe and map a two-month-long episode of velocity changes with complex spatial distribution and interpret the velocity perturbation as produced by a previously undocumented slow-slip event. We verify the hypothesis through numerical simulations and locate this event along a fault segment believed to be locked. Such a slow-slip event stresses its surroundings and may trigger a major earthquake on a fault section approaching failure.

On the Patterns and Scaling Properties of the 2021–2022 Arkalochori Earthquake Sequence (Central Crete, Greece) Based on Seismological, Geophysical and Satellite Observations

The 27 September 2021 damaging mainshock (Mw6.0) close to Arkalochori village is the strongest earthquake that was recorded during the instrumental period of seismicity in Central Crete (Greece). The mainshock was preceded by a significant number of foreshocks that lasted nearly four months. Maximum ground subsidence of about 18 cm was estimated from InSAR processing. The aftershock sequence is located in an almost NE-SW direction and divided into two main clusters, the southern and the northern ones. The foreshock activity, the deformation area, and the strongest aftershocks are located within the southern cluster. Based on body-wave travel times, a 3-D velocity model was developed, while using combined space and ground-based geodetic techniques, the co-seismic ground deformation is presented. Moreover, we examined the co-seismic static stress changes with respect to the aftershocks’ spatial distribution during the major events of the foreshocks, the Mw = 6.0 main event as well as the largest aftershock. Both the foreshock and the aftershock sequences obey the scaling law for the frequency-magnitude distribution as derived from the framework of non-extensive statistical physics (NESP). The aftershock production rate decays according to the modified Omori scaling law, exhibiting various Omori regimes due to the generation of secondary aftershock sequences. The analysis of the inter-event time distribution, based on NESP, further indicates asymptotic power-law scaling and long-range correlations among the events. The spatiotemporal evolution of the aftershock sequence indicates triggering by co-seismic stress transfer, while its slow migration towards the outer edges of the area of the aftershocks, related to the logarithm of time, further indicates a possible afterslip.

Forecasting mechanical failure and the 26 June 2018 eruption of Sierra Negra Volcano, Galápagos, Ecuador

Using recent advancements in high-performance computing data assimilation to combine satellite InSAR data with numerical models, the prolonged unrest of the Sierra Negra volcano in the Galápagos was tracked to provide a fortuitous, but successful, forecast 5 months in advance of the 26 June 2018 eruption. Subsequent numerical simulations reveal that the evolution of the stress state in the host rock surrounding the Sierra Negra magma system likely controlled eruption timing. While changes in magma reservoir pressure remained modest (<15 MPa), modeled widespread Mohr-Coulomb failure is coincident with the timing of the 26 June 2018 moment magnitude 5.4 earthquake and subsequent eruption. Coulomb stress transfer models suggest that the faulting event triggered the 2018 eruption by encouraging tensile failure along the northern portion of the caldera. These findings provide a critical framework for understanding Sierra Negra's eruption cycles and evaluating the potential and timing of future eruptions.

Structural Complexity and Seismogenesis: The Role of the Transpressive Structures in the 1976 Friuli Earthquakes (Eastern Southern Alps, NE Italy)

We reconstructed the seismotectonic setting of the area comprising the northeastern Friuli Plain and the Julian pre-Alpine border (NE Italy) by integrating geological and seismological data. The study area represents the junction between the SSE-verging polyphase thrust-front of the south-Alpine Chain and the NW–SE-trending strike-slip faults of the eastern Friuli–western Slovenia domain. Following a multidisciplinary approach, the 3D geometry of the Susans–Tricesimo thrust system was reconstructed through the elaboration of four geological cross sections derived from the interpretation of ENI industrial seismic lines. In a second step, the seismogenic volume of the central-eastern Friuli area was investigated through hypocentral distribution analysis: the seismic events of the latest 50 years (1976–1977 and 1978–2019 time intervals) were plotted on four NE-SW-oriented seriated sections together with the fault plane’s geometry. Through this procedure, we were able to investigate the relationship between the NW-SE-striking high-angle faults, which characterize the northern Julian pre-Alps, and the WSW-verging medium-angle reverse fronts located at the piedmont of the Friuli plain, which experienced NW-SE- to NNW-SSE-oriented compression starting at least from the Pliocene. In detail, we examined the involvement of these structures during the seismic sequences of May and September 1976, in terms of activation and/or interaction. The resulting seismotectonic model highlights the interplay between transpressive/strike-slip and reverse planes. In particular, this study suggests that Predjama and Maniaglia transpressive faults strongly control the stress release and likely played a fundamental role both during the 6 May (Mw 6.5) and 15 September (Mw 6.0) Friuli earthquakes.

Source Geometry and Causes of the 2019 Ms6.0 Changning Earthquake in Sichuan, China Based on InSAR

On 17 June 2019, an Ms6.0 earthquake occurred in Changning, Sichuan, China (Changning event), which was the largest earthquake on record within 50 km of the area. It attracted great attention as the area has the largest shale gas production in China as well as significant mineral salt production. Using the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), we extract the coseismic deformation of the Changning event and two earlier Ms > 5.0 earthquakes which occurred in the same region (16 December 2018 Ms5.7 and 3 January 2019 Ms5.3) from the Sentinel-1 and ALOS2 data. We use nonlinear and linear methods to invert the fault models of the three earthquakes based on the deformation fields. The final model shows that the Changning event was caused by a fault with left-lateral strike and thrust slip. The strike is 124.3° with a dip angle of 43.4°. The seismic moment obtained by inversion is 5.28 × 1017 Nm, corresponding to Mw 5.78. Based on the fault models, we analyze the cause of the Changning earthquake considering the local tectonic setting, Coulomb stress change, mining, and fluid injection. We consider that the event may be related to salt mining. The two earlier Ms > 5.0 earthquakes may also play an important role in advancing the Changning earthquake.

In Search of the 1654 Seismic Source (Central Italy): An Obscure, Strong, Damaging Earthquake Occurred Less than 100 km from Rome and Naples

The M6.3 earthquake that occurred in southern Lazio (Central Italy) in 1654 is the strongest seismic event to have occurred in the area. However, our knowledge about this earthquake is scarce and no study has been devoted to the individuation of its causative source. The main purpose of this study is putting together all of the information available for this shock to provide reliable landmarks to identify its seismic source. To this end, we present and discuss historical, hydrological, geological, and seismological data, both reviewed and newly acquired. An important, novel part of this study relies on an analysis of the coseismic hydrological changes associated with the 1654 earthquake and on the comparison of their distribution with models of the coseismic strain field induced by a number of potential seismogenic sources. We find more satisfactory results when imposing a lateral component of slip to the faults investigated. In particular, oblique left-lateral sources display a better fit between strain and hydrological signatures. Finally, the cross-analysis between the results from modeling and the other pieces of evidence collected point to the Sora fault, with its trend variability, as the probable causative source of the 1654 earthquake.

Characteristics of Local Geomagnetic Field Variations and the Tectonic Stress Field Adjacent to the 21 May 2021, Ms 6.4 Yangbi Earthquake, Yunnan, China

The tectonic processes leading up to an earthquake and the occurrence of the earthquake itself will cause local changes in the geophysical field (geomagnetic field, stress field, etc.). In this paper, the variation characteristics of the tectonic stress field (TSF) and local geomagnetic field (LGF) before and after the Yangbi Ms 6.4 earthquake are studied. The regional stress tensor damping inversion method was used to invert the TSF using focal mechanism solutions (FMSs). The change characteristics of the TSF before and after the earthquake were analyzed. An annual variation model of the LGF was constructed, and the variation of the horizontal vector was analyzed. The azimuth and plunge of the maximum principal compressive stress axis of the TSF in the epicentral region before and after the earthquake were −4.4° and 2.7°, 172.7° and 6.6°, respectively. The variations in the declination, inclination and total intensity of the epicenter one year before and one month after the earthquake were −0.20′ (0.07′), 0.29′ (−0.12′), and −1.7 nT (−1.9 nT), respectively. The epicenter is located at the boundary of the “weak variation region” of the horizontal vector. This research is of great significance concerning the TSF background and incubation mechanism of earthquakes.

Hydrochemical changes of a spring due to the May 30, 2014 Ms 6.1 Yingjiang earthquake, southwest China

Groundwater chemistry can be affected by and related to earthquakes, thus it is crucial to understand the hydrochemical changes and associated processes caused by earthquakes for post-seismic groundwater utilization. Here we reported the major ion concentrations changes of the Ganze Spring in response to the May 30, 2014 Ms 6.1 Yingjiang earthquake, southwest China based on the daily time series (from 1st January 2012 to 20th July 2014) of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ and HCO₃^- concentrations, as well as data of bulk strain and Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) recorded at a nearby station. The results showed that the entire hydrochemical response process can be divided into two stages after the earthquake occurred: 1). decline stage which was characterized by an increasingly decline of the three ion concentrations, indicating a gradually significant dilution effect. At first, the relationship of molar concentrations of ions showed no obvious changes; but later as the rate of decrease in ion concentrations increased, the relationship between Ca²⁺ and HCO₃^- reversed from Ca²⁺ excess to HCO₃^- excess, probably resulting from a relatively decreased Ca²⁺ contribution from dissolution of gypsum and dolomite due to dilution in mixing water. 2). recover stage when the ion concentrations recovered gradually with relatively lower values than that at pre-earthquake, revealing the reduction of dilute water inflow. In combination with the bulk strain and PGV data, the study suggested that major ion concentrations changes are attributed to dilution effect due to new fracture creation or unclogging/clogging of fractures triggered by the earthquake. The results could enhance the understanding of earthquake induced water chemistry changes and could have implications for water resources management and security in tectonically active areas.

Tsunami generation potential of a strike-slip fault tip in the westernmost Mediterranean

Tsunamis are triggered by sudden seafloor displacements, and usually originate from seismic activity at faults. Nevertheless, strike-slip faults are usually disregarded as major triggers, as they are thought to be capable of generating only moderate seafloor deformation; accordingly, the tsunamigenic potential of the vertical throw at the tips of strike-slip faults is not thought to be significant. We found the active dextral NW-SE Averroes Fault in the central Alboran Sea (westernmost Mediterranean) has a historical vertical throw of up to 5.4 m at its northwestern tip corresponding to an earthquake of Mw 7.0. We modelled the tsunamigenic potential of this seafloor deformation by Tsunami-HySEA software using the Coulomb 3.3 code. Waves propagating on two main branches reach highly populated sectors of the Iberian coast with maximum arrival heights of 6 m within 21 and 35 min, which is too quick for current early-warning systems to operate successfully. These findings suggest that the tsunamigenic potential of strike-slip faults is more important than previously thought, and should be taken into account for the re-evaluation of tsunami early-warning systems.

Delineation of the Causative Fault of Recent Earthquakes (April–May 2020) in Delhi from Seismological and Morphometric Analysis

Recently, amid the pandemic of COVID-2019, the north-east Delhi region experienced two small earthquakes in a short span of 1 month; the first occurred on 12^th April 2020 (M_w 3.5) and the other on 10^th May 2020 (M_w 3.4). These events were followed by 4 aftershocks of magnitude M_w ≤ 3.0. We carried out morphotectonic (high stream length-gradient index) and static Coulomb stress failure analyses to delineate the hidden causative fault(s) in the region. In the study, ASTER DEM data of 30 m resolution and Survey of India (SoI) toposheets on 1:50,000 scales were used for morphotectonic analysis. The analysis depicted a very high stream length-gradient (SL) and fall in elevation in the epicentral area, suggesting the area to be tectonically active with a NE-SW trending fault line. In addition, the nature of static Coulomb failure stress contours for both the main events, M_w 3.5 and M_w 3.4, suggests an NNE-SSW trending high Coulomb stress regime. Such a high coulomb stress regime is obvious at the location where a high SL index and fall in elevation were marked, which clearly indicates the presence of NNE-SSW trending a causative fault, named ‘Khanpur-Japti fault’.

Surface Rupture Kinematics and Coseismic Slip Distribution during the 2019 Mw7.1 Ridgecrest, California Earthquake Sequence Revealed by SAR and Optical Images

The 2019 Ridgecrest, California earthquake sequence ruptured along a complex fault system and triggered seismic and aseismic slips on intersecting faults. To characterize the surface rupture kinematics and fault slip distribution, we used optical images and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations to reconstruct the displacement caused by the earthquake sequence. We further calculated curl and divergence from the north-south and east-west components, to effectively identify the surface rupture traces. The results show that the major seismogenic fault had a length of ~55 km and strike of 320° and consisted of five secondary faults. On the basis of the determined multiple-fault geometries, we inverted the coseismic slip distributions by InSAR measurements, which indicates that the Mw7.1 mainshock was dominated by the right-lateral strike-slip (maximum strike-slip of ~5.8 m at the depth of ~7.5 km), with a small dip-slip component (peaking at ~1.8 m) on an east-dipping fault. The Mw6.4 foreshock was dominated by the left-lateral strike-slip on a north-dipping fault. These earthquakes triggered obvious aseismic creep along the Garlock fault (117.3° W–117.5° W). These results are consistent with the rupture process of the earthquake sequence, which featured a complicated cascading rupture rather than a single continuous rupture front propagating along multiple faults.

Strain Pattern and Kinematics of the Canary Islands from GNSS Time Series Analysis

Following the 2004 seismic unrest at Tenerife and the 2011–2012 submarine eruption at El Hierro, the number of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observation sites in the Canary Islands (Spain) has increased, offering scientists a useful tool with which to infer the kinematics and present-day surface deformation of the Canary sector of the Atlantic Ocean. We take advantage of the common-mode component filtering technique to improve the signal-to-noise ratio of the velocities retrieved from the daily solutions of 18 permanent GNSS stations distributed in the Canaries. The analysis of GNSS time series spanning the period 2011–2017 enabled us to characterize major regions of deformation along the archipelago through the mapping of the 2D infinitesimal strain field. By applying the triangular segmentation approach to GNSS velocities, we unveil a variable kinematic behaviour within the islands. The retrieved extension pattern shows areas of maximum deformation west of Tenerife, Gran Canaria and Fuerteventura. For the submarine main seismogenic fault between Tenerife and Gran Canaria, we simulated the horizontal deformation and strain due to one of the strongest (mbLg 5.2) earthquakes of the region. The seismic areas between islands, mainly offshore Tenerife and Gran Canaria, seem mainly influenced by the regional tectonic stress, not the local volcanic activity. In addition, the analysis of the maximum shear strain confirms that the regional stress field influences the E–W and NE–SW tectonic lineaments, which, in accordance with the extensional and compressional tectonic regimes identified, might favour episodes of volcanism in the Canary Islands.

Were changes in stress state responsible for the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes?

Monitoring the Earth’s stress state plays a role in our understanding of an earthquake’s mechanism and in the distribution of hazards. Crustal deformation due to the July 2019 earthquake sequence in Ridgecrest (California) that culminated in a preceding quake of magnitude (M) 6.4 and a subsequent M7.1 quake caused stress perturbation in a nearby region, but implications of future seismicity are still uncertain. Here, the occurrence of small earthquakes is compared to larger ones, using b-values, showing that the rupture initiation from an area of low b-values, indicative of high stress, was common to both M6.4 and M7.1 quakes. The post-M7.1-quake sequence reveals that another low-b-value zone, which avoided its ruptured area, fell into an area near the Garlock fault that hosted past large earthquakes. If this area were more stressed, there would be a high-likelihood of further activation of seismicity that might influence the Garlock fault.

Based on b-value mapping, the author proposes the high likelihood of future rupture in the area of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes.

Causal mechanism of injection-induced earthquakes through the Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake case study

Causal mechanisms for fluid injection-induced earthquakes remain a challenge to identify. Past studies largely established spatiotemporal correlations. Here, we propose a multi-process causal mechanism for injection-induced earthquakes through a case study of the 2017 M_w 5.5 induced earthquake near Pohang Enhanced Geothermal System, Korea, where detailed hydraulic stimulation and on-site seismicity monitoring data provide an unprecedented opportunity. Pore pressure modeling reveals that pore pressure changes initiate seismicity on critically stressed faults and Coulomb static stress transfer modeling reveals that earthquake interactions promote continued seismicity, leading to larger events. On the basis of these results, we propose the following causal mechanism for induced seismicity: pore pressure increase and earthquake interactions lead to fault weakening and ultimately triggering larger earthquakes later in the process. We suggest that it is prudent that pore pressure change, initial seismicity locations, and Coulomb static stress transfer from seismicity earlier in the sequence are assessed in real-time.

The authors here suggest a causal mechanism for injection-induced earthquakes. They further suggest pore pressure modeling as a practical alternative to direct in-situ pore pressure observation which can then be used for stress build-up monitoring.

Seismogenic Source Model of the 2019, Mw 5.9, East-Azerbaijan Earthquake (NW Iran) through the Inversion of Sentinel-1 DInSAR Measurements

In this work, we investigate the Mw 5.9 earthquake occurred on 7 November 2019 in the East-Azerbaijan region, in northwestern Iran, which is inserted in the tectonic framework of the East-Azerbaijan Plateau, a complex mountain belt that contains internal major fold-and-thrust belts. We first analyze the Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) measurements obtained by processing the data collected by the Sentinel-1 constellation along ascending and descending orbits; then, we invert the achieved results through analytical modelling, in order to better constrain the geometry and characteristics of the seismogenic source. The retrieved fault model shows a rather shallow seismic structure, with a center depth at about 3 km, approximately NE–SW-striking and southeast-dipping, characterized by a left-lateral strike-slip fault mechanism (strike = 29.17°, dip = 79.29°, rake = −4.94°) and by a maximum slip of 0.80 m. By comparing the inferred fault with the already published geological structures, the retrieved solution reveals a minor fault not reported in the geological maps available in the open literature, whose kinematics is compatible with that of the surrounding structures, with the local and regional stress states and with the performed field observations. Moreover, by taking into account the surrounding geological structures reported in literature, we also use the retrieved fault model to calculate the Coulomb Failure Function at the nearby receiver faults. We show that this event may have encouraged, with a positive loading, the activation of the considered receiver faults. This is also confirmed by the distribution of the aftershocks that occurred near the considered surrounding structures. The analysis of the seismic events nucleated along the left-lateral strike-slip minor faults of the East-Azerbaijan Plateau, such as the one analyzed in this work, is essential to improve our knowledge on the seismic hazard estimation in northwestern Iran.

Coseismic Slip Distribution of the 2019 Mw 7.5 New Ireland Earthquake from the Integration of Multiple Remote Sensing Techniques

The 2019 Mw 7.5 New Ireland earthquake occurred at an equatorial area where the dense vegetation prevents remote sensing techniques such as C- or X-band interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) from acquiring coherent phase measurements. Therefore, in this paper, multiple remote sensing techniques including the L-band interferometric SAR, the range and azimuth offset tracking of SAR intensities, and the offset tracking of optical images were employed to map its co-seismic deformation field and to determine the slip distribution. The surface rupture was clearly and consistently captured by all offset observations, with the ground fault trace striking at an angel of 315° and extending over 10 km. An iterative weighting strategy based on the residual root mean square of inversions using individual datasets was developed to determine the relative weight of each dataset, allowing for the joint inversion of the fault geometry, the refinement of the dip angle, and the determination of the best fitting slip distribution. The resultant model indicates a nearly left-lateral strike-slip motion on the Weitin fault that ruptured to the surface with a maximum slip of 6.10 m, occurring at a depth of ~10 km, and a geodetic moment release of 1.03 × 1020 Nm, corresponding to a magnitude of Mw 7.31. The distribution of aftershocks shows about 70% of aftershocks were located in the area with increased Coulomb failure stress and few aftershocks in the subduction zone to the south of the Weitin fault were triggered by this event.

Fault Slip Model of the 2018 Mw 6.6 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi, Japan, Earthquake Estimated from Satellite Radar and GPS Measurements

In this study, Sentinel-1 and Advanced Land Observation Satellite-2 (ALOS-2) interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and global positioning system (GPS) data were used to jointly determine the source parameters and fault slip distribution of the Mw 6.6 Hokkaido eastern Iburi, Japan, earthquake that occurred on 5 September 2018. The coseismic deformation map obtained from the ascending and descending Sentinel-1 and ALOS-2 InSAR data and GPS data is consistent with a thrust faulting event. A comparison between the InSAR-observed and GPS-projected line-of-sight (LOS) deformation suggests that descending Sentinel-1 track T046D, descending ALOS-2 track P018D, and ascending ALOS-2 track P112A and GPS data can be used to invert for the source parameters. The results of a nonlinear inversion show that the seismogenic fault is a blind NNW-trending (strike angle ~347.2°), east-dipping (dip angle ~79.6°) thrust fault. On the basis of the optimal fault geometry model, the fault slip distribution jointly inverted from the three datasets reveals that a significant slip area extends 30 km along the strike and 25 km in the downdip direction, and the peak slip magnitude can approach 0.53 m at a depth of 15.5 km. The estimated geodetic moment magnitude released by the distributed slip model is 6.16   × 10 18   N · m , equivalent to an event magnitude of Mw 6.50, which is slightly smaller than the estimates of focal mechanism solutions. According to the Coulomb stress change at the surrounding faults, more attention should be paid to potential earthquake disasters in this region in the near future. In consideration of the possibility of multi-fault rupture and complexity of regional geologic framework, the refined distributed slip and seismogenic mechanism of this deep reverse faulting should be investigated with multi-disciplinary (e.g., geodetic, seismic, and geological) data in further studies.

Heterogeneous Behavior of the Campotosto Normal Fault (Central Italy) Imaged by InSAR GPS and Strong-Motion Data: Insights from the 18 January 2017 Events

On 18 January 2017, the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence reached the Campotosto area with four events with magnitude larger than 5 in three hours (major event MW 5.5). To study the slip behavior on the causative fault/faults we followed two different methodologies: (1) we use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) interferograms (Sentinel-1 satellites) and Global Positioning System (GPS) coseismic displacements to constrain the fault geometry and the cumulative slip distribution; (2) we invert near-source strong-motion, high-sampling-rate GPS waveforms, and high-rate GPS-derived static offsets to retrieve the rupture history of the two largest events. The geodetic inversion shows that the earthquake sequence occurred along the southern segment of the SW-dipping Mts. Laga normal fault system with an average slip of about 40 cm and an estimated cumulative geodetic moment of 9.29 × 1017 Nm (equivalent to a MW~6). This latter estimate is larger than the cumulative seismic moment of all the events, with MW > 4 which occurred in the corresponding time interval, suggesting that a fraction (~35%) of the overall deformation imaged by InSAR and GPS may have been released aseismically. Geodetic and seismological data agree with the geological information pointing out the Campotosto fault segment as the causative structure of the main shocks. The position of the hypocenters supports the evidence of an up-dip and northwestward rupture directivity during the major shocks of the sequence for both static and kinematic inferred slip models. The activated two main slip patches are characterized by rise time and peak slip velocity in the ranges 0.7–1.1 s and 2.3–3.2 km/s, respectively, and by ~35–50 cm of slip mainly concentrated in the shallower northern part of causative fault. Our results show that shallow slip (depth < 5 km) is required by the geodetic and seismological observations and that the inferred slip distribution is complementary with respect to the previous April 2009 seismic sequence affecting the southern half of the Campotosto fault. The recent moderate strain-release episodes (multiple M~5–5.5 earthquakes) and the paleoseismological evidence of surface-rupturing events (M~6.5) suggests therefore a heterogeneous behavior of the Campotosto fault.

Coulomb pre-stress and fault bends are ignored yet vital factors for earthquake triggering and hazard

Successive locations of individual large earthquakes (M_w > 5.5) over years to centuries can be difficult to explain with simple Coulomb stress transfer (CST) because it is common for seismicity to circumvent nearest-neighbour along-strike faults where coseismic CST is greatest. We demonstrate that Coulomb pre-stress (the cumulative CST from multiple earthquakes and interseismic loading on non-planar faults) may explain this, evidenced by study of a 667-year historical record of earthquakes in central Italy. Heterogeneity in Coulomb pre-stresses across the fault system is >±50 bars, whereas coseismic CST is <±2 bars, so the latter will rarely overwhelm the former, explaining why historical earthquakes rarely rupture nearest neighbor faults. However, earthquakes do tend to occur where the cumulative coseismic and interseismic CST is positive, although there are notable examples where earthquake propagate across negatively stressed portions of faults. Hence Coulomb pre-stress calculated for non-planar faults is an ignored yet vital factor for earthquake triggering.

Scattered earthquake locations in the same region cannot be explained solely by coseismic Coulomb stress on planar faults. Instead, the authors suggest Coulomb pre-stress to influence earthquake locations. Pre-stress was modelled on strike-variable faults and consists of coseismic and interseismic Coulomb stress.

Slip on a mapped normal fault for the 28th December 1908 Messina earthquake (Mw 7.1) in Italy

The 28th December 1908 Messina earthquake (Mw 7.1), Italy, caused >80,000 deaths and transformed earthquake science by triggering the study of earthquake environmental effects worldwide, yet its source is still a matter of debate. To constrain the geometry and kinematics of the earthquake we use elastic half-space modelling on non-planar faults, constrained by the geology and geomorphology of the Messina Strait, to replicate levelling data from 1907-1909. The novelty of our approach is that we (a) recognise the similarity between the pattern of vertical motions and that of other normal faulting earthquakes, and (b) for the first time model the levelling data using the location and geometry of a well-known offshore capable fault. Our results indicate slip on the capable fault with a dip to the east of 70° and 5 m dip-slip at depth, with slip propagating to the surface on the sea bed. Our work emphasises that geological and geomorphological observations supporting maps of capable non-planar faults should not be ignored when attempting to identify the sources of major earthquakes.

Clock advance and magnitude limitation through fault interaction: the case of the 2016 central Italy earthquake sequence

Faults communicate with each other. Strong earthquakes perturb stress over large volumes modifying the load on nearby faults and their resistance to slip. The causative fault induces permanent or transient perturbations that can change the time to the next seismic rupture with respect to that expected for a steadily accumulating stress. For a given fault, an increase of stress or a strength decrease would drive it closer to - or maybe even trigger - an earthquake. This is usually perceived as an undesired circumstance. However, with respect to the potential damage, a time advance might not necessarily be a bad thing. Here we show that the central Italy seismic sequence starting with the Amatrice earthquake on 24 August 2016 advanced the 30 October Norcia earthquake (M_W = 6.5), but limited its magnitude by inhibiting the rupture on large portions of the fault plane. The preceding events hastened the mainshock and determined its features by shaping a patch of concentrated stress. During the Norcia earthquake, the coseismic slip remained substantially confined to this patch. Our results demonstrate that monitoring the seismicity with very dense networks and timely analyses can make it feasible to map rupture prone areas.

Fault slip and identification of the second fault plane in the Varzeghan earthquake doublet

An intraplate earthquake doublet, with 11-min delay between the events, devastated the city of Varzeghan in northwestern Iran on August 11, 2012. The first Mw 6.5 strike-slip earthquake, which occurred after more than 200 years of low seismicity, was followed by an Mw 6.4 oblique thrust event at an epicentral separation of about 6 km. While the first event can be associated with a distinct surface rupture, the absence of a surface fault trace and no clear aftershock signature makes it challenging to identify the fault plane of the second event. We use teleseismic body wave inversion to deduce the slip distribution in the first event. Using both P and SH waves stabilize the inversion and we further constrain the result with the surface rupture extent and the aftershock distribution. The obtained slip pattern shows two distinct slip patches with dissimilar slip directions where aftershocks avoid high-slip areas. Using the estimated slip for the first event, we calculate the induced Coulomb stress change on the nodal planes of the second event and find a preference for higher Coulomb stress on the N-S nodal plane. Assuming a simple slip model for the second event, we estimate the combined Coulomb stress changes from the two events on the focal planes of the largest aftershocks. We find that 90% of the aftershocks show increased Coulomb stress on one of their nodal planes when the N-S plane of the second event is assumed to be the correct fault plane.

Physical applications of GPS geodesy: a review

Geodesy, the oldest science, has become an important discipline in the geosciences, in large part by enhancing Global Positioning System (GPS) capabilities over the last 35 years well beyond the satellite constellation's original design. The ability of GPS geodesy to estimate 3D positions with millimeter-level precision with respect to a global terrestrial reference frame has contributed to significant advances in geophysics, seismology, atmospheric science, hydrology, and natural hazard science. Monitoring the changes in the positions or trajectories of GPS instruments on the Earth's land and water surfaces, in the atmosphere, or in space, is important for both theory and applications, from an improved understanding of tectonic and magmatic processes to developing systems for mitigating the impact of natural hazards on society and the environment. Besides accurate positioning, all disturbances in the propagation of the transmitted GPS radio signals from satellite to receiver are mined for information, from troposphere and ionosphere delays for weather, climate, and natural hazard applications, to disturbances in the signals due to multipath reflections from the solid ground, water, and ice for environmental applications. We review the relevant concepts of geodetic theory, data analysis, and physical modeling for a myriad of processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and discuss the extensive global infrastructure that has been built to support GPS geodesy consisting of thousands of continuously operating stations. We also discuss the integration of heterogeneous and complementary data sets from geodesy, seismology, and geology, focusing on crustal deformation applications and early warning systems for natural hazards.

A great earthquake doublet and seismic stress transfer cycle in the central Kuril islands

Temporal variations of the frictional resistance on subduction-zone plate boundary faults associated with the stick-slip cycle of large interplate earthquakes are thought to modulate the stress regime and earthquake activity within the subducting oceanic plate. Here we report on two great earthquakes that occurred near the Kuril islands, which shed light on this process and demonstrate the enhanced seismic hazard accompanying triggered faulting. On 15 November 2006, an event of moment magnitude 8.3 ruptured the shallow-dipping plate boundary along which the Pacific plate descends beneath the central Kuril arc. The thrust ruptured a seismic gap that previously had uncertain seismogenic potential, although the earlier occurrence of outer-rise compressional events had suggested the presence of frictional resistance. Within minutes of this large underthrusting event, intraplate extensional earthquakes commenced in the outer rise region seaward of the Kuril trench, and on 13 January 2007, an event of moment magnitude 8.1 ruptured a normal fault extending through the upper portion of the Pacific plate, producing one of the largest recorded shallow extensional earthquakes. This energetic earthquake sequence demonstrates the stress transfer process within the subducting lithosphere, and the distinct rupture characteristics of these great earthquakes illuminate differences in seismogenic properties and seismic hazard of such interplate and intraplate faults.